Tip for Lingfield from Guy Ward

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

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Lingfield 2.10 – ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  Betfred – Bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE – I have found 2 similar winners

JEER – I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER – Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

Horse Racing System Selections

The following bets come from the increasingly famous
PunterProfits NH Portfolio.

This betting  method has been tested for over 15 years horse racing.
It averages 50 points level stakes profit each year.

Long term strike rate is about 40%

For more info click here ==>  Horse Racing System

SYSTEM C
Chp 4.45 Fongoli  ( 5/2 Coral , PaddyPower,  Stan James )

SYSTEM D
Ban 3.20 Hello Nod  ( 5/1 William Hill )

If you are interested in a free trial of the PunterProfits service
email their admin address and ask about a free trial for sports betting blog readers.
http://www.punterprofits.com/contact.php

VALUE OUTSIDERS

1PT Bristol Rovers to beat Stockport in League one 2/1 Coral or 9/5 PaddyPower and B365

(Saturday 15^th August, 3.00pm KO)

We hit the bar backing the other Bristol side last week but hopefully Rovers will be capable of holding on to a 2-0 lead with less than ten minutes of normal time remaining. Sorry, I’m still a bit bitter about last week as you can probably tell. In all seriousness, I think Rovers look a good bet at a nice price on Saturday. Under normal circumstances, you wouldn’t usually be rushing to back a side that had just sold their twenty nine goal top scorer from the previous season. However, although the departure of Ricky Lambert is an obvious blow to Bristol Rovers, I think that they have capable replacements in Duffy and Kuffour, both of whom managed double figures last season. They will be eager to take their chance to build a reputation for themselves and persuade manager Paul Trollope that he doesn’t need to go and spend a lot of money on another striker. Rovers are a decent league one side and have benefited from a board that has kept faith with a young manager. Paul Trollope is beginning his fifth season at the Memorial ground and he has built a useful team with minimal resources. Trollope is actually the second longest serving manager in the division and the tenth longest serving manger in the country, which is some achievement considering the modern day craziness that sees managers sacked one game into a new season?

The main reason for this bet however, is that Stockport County just have to be opposed right now and a 2/1 quote from Coral was just too big to miss out on. Stockport were placed into administration at the end of last season and are still struggling badly. They punched above their weight for much of last year but have since lost manager Jim Gannon along with most of their best players in McNulty, Dicker, Rowe and Pilkington. There have been no new arrivals of any note over the summer apart from manager Gary Ablett. I am not convinced Ablett is going to be the man for the job at all and his record is far from inspiring. He has never managed in the football league and has just a spell as a youth coach at Everton and a stint as Liverpool reserve manager on his CV. He was only available after Liverpool terminated his contract at the end of last season.

Ablett has a very limited squad to work with and no money for new players. In a situation like this you need experienced players to see you through, yet Stockport have probably got the most inexperienced squad in the football league. The twelve players Ablett used at Oldham last week had an average age of just twenty two. Eight of them were under twenty three and the oldest player was just twenty seven. Although they left Boundary Park with a point last week, this was thanks to a man of the match performance from goalkeeper Fon Williams and was followed up by a 3-1 cup defeat at Huddersfield. The Hatters look nailed on for relegation and I will be looking to oppose them as often as prices allow. Paul Trollope seemed confident of getting a win in his pre match interview and I have to agree with him:

“Stockport are in a little bit of transition with a new manager and I’m sure Gary is trying to mould things how he’d like them – although that can take a little bit of time.

“We are confident that if we can produce the football we’re capable of and defend right, we can win the game.”

The Oracle

To Visit The Oracles site click here ==> Football Betting Tips

Bookmaker Cash Back Offer

There is some major news this week on the bookmaker front I wanted to
make sure you were all aware of.

Coral have introduced quite an enticing cash back offer.

Each month you make a net loss with them on all sportsbook and gaming action
( excludes poker and any other peer to peer bets )
They will give you 10% of your net losses back.

See here for full details. ==> Coral

NB this is not just an offer for new account holders.
You can get this cash back if you already have a Coral account.

IMPORTANT

If you already have an account with them you need to opt in for this offer.
Do that now if you have not done so already by clicking here ==> Coral

Also if you open a new account with them, again opt into the 10% refund offer after you set up your account.

Also Note …

Bookmaker CanBet also offer a rebate on monthly losses

Pros of the CanBet offer .. they give 25% back which is obviously better than Corals 10%

Cons of CanBet

the rebate is restricted to losses only on UK and Irish horse racing ( whilst Coral is any sports and gaming too )

You have to manually claim it at the end of each month by logging in and entering a code into your account.
Once you opt into the Coral scheme rebate cash if due will automatically be placed into your account
which is obviously a much more punter friendly approach that cuts out the possibility of you forgetting to claim a refund due to you.

The CanBet rebate is limited to 8% of total stakes

You also need 25 settled bets each month on CanBet totalling at least £100

So as you can see CanBet do of course offer a significantly higher percentage if your focus is horse racing.
It would be nice however to see them cut out some of the hoops and hurdles and automate the crediting of your account each month if you are due cash.

Overall I think I have to applaud Coral for this losses rebate introduction.
It will put pressure on some of the other bookmakers to start thinking about how they too can offer something more attractive to us punters.

Best wishes
Sports Betting Blog