Ten Year Trends For Ascot On SATURDAY

The research below was provided by Dave Renham of the www.RacingTrends.co.uk site.

Data is based on the last ten years of his racing database research.

These trends reports are just a little extra he provides his clients with for major races and meetings throughout the year.

His day to day messages are also stat packed and a great source of informative information for any thinking punter.

See an old sample at http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/racing/sample-full-member-message/

NB If interested in a first month of membership at RacingTrends for a cost of £0 to permit you to assess the service provided drop me a quick note and I will try and sort that for you.

Now over to Dave

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1.35 Ascot – Longines Handicap – 7f (class 3 handicap) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced between 9/1 and 20/1 have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd to 6th LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 17 days.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
Jockeys: Miss S Brotherton has won the race twice and been placed on one other occasion.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 13.
Market: Just 1 win from 32 for horses from the top three of the betting.
Weight rank: Horses from the top 8 of the weights have provided just 3 winners from 82 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -61%).
Days since last run: Horses off the track for over 5 weeks have provided 0 winners from 32 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that won or finished 2nd LTO have provided 0 winners from 49.
LTO race: 22 horses raced in a non handicap LTO and all have lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 17 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 59 (SR 10.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 47 (SR 4.3%); 6yos+ have provided 2 winners from 84 (SR 2.4%).

Trends analysis: In recent years it has been worthwhile to look for horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 as they have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. Indeed you could have made a profit by backing all runners in this price bracket. The top three in the betting have a dreadful record and there has been value to look beyond these runners. Last time out winners / runners up also have performed poorly with no success from 49 runners in the past 10 renewals.  4 year olds have the best record age wise, while horses aged 6 or older look worth avoiding. All in all this is a typically open ladies’ handicap.


3.20 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) 4yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 2nd favourites have won 5 of the last 10 races for a profit of £10.38 (ROI +94.3%).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from second to fifth in the betting.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. Backing all 32 runner would have produced a profit of £15.63 (ROI +48.8%).
Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or shorter.
Breeding: American bred runners are rare but they have secured 3 wins from just 13 runners for a profit of £11.00 (ROI +84.6%).
Class LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners ran in a Group 1 race LTO.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
Course LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran at a Grade 1 track LTO; one other winner raced at Sha Tin LTO (the main track in Hong Kong).
Days since last run: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 8 weeks.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 1 win from 10 for a loss of £7.13 (ROI -71.3%).
Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 34.

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: No trainer has won the race more than once in the past 10 years.
Age: 4yos have provided 5 winners from 41 (SR 12.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 22 (SR 9.1%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 12 (SR 16.7%); 7yos+ have provided 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%).

Trends analysis: This race has not been a good one for favourites, although with second favourites having a good record it is probably just a statistical blip. There are several positive trends to note such as horses that ran in a Group 1 race LTO – they have provided 60% of the winners from only 28% of the total runners. Likewise horses off the track for 8 weeks or more have an excellent record – they have provided 50% of the winners from only 16% of the total runners. In terms of age 4yos have won the most races, but they have provided the most runners – essentially there seems to be no age bias.

4.35 Ascot – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 6 wins from 10 for a profit of £3.97 (ROI +39.7%).
Market: The top four in the betting have provided all of the last 10 winners.
Price: All of the winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
Price: Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have provided 6 winners from just 9 runners.
Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO (6 won).
Course LTO: 4 of the last 5 winners raced at Royal Ascot LTO.
Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 wins, Aidan O’Brien and John Oxx 2 a piece.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 53.
Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 45.
Breeding: Just 1 win from 21 for British bred runners.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 10 (SR 20%); 4yos have provided 8 winners from 40 (SR 20%); 5yos+ have provided 0 winners from 35 (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and the shorter the price the better. Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have a excellent record of 6 wins from only 9 qualifiers. Irish bred runners have done well as have Irish trainers, while horses that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have a good recent record. A win LTO has also been a positive. 4 year olds have dominated in recent years with not many 3 year olds prepared to take on their elders. 5yos have a very poor recent record.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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