Cheltenham Ten Year Trends

One of the many componants that makes up Dave Renham’s excellent RacingTrends service are his Big Race Trends reports.
Typically these cover several of the major races each Saturday but he also provides them for major meetings and festivals.
These are in addition to his normal daily high detail racing stats reports.
In short these big race trends reports examine individual races in detail in order to try and identify any key elements of form that will gives us clues as to value or likely winners in today’s races.
Today Dave has looked at several races at Cheltenham from a ten year trends approach.
 
1.55 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (registered as the Bristol Hurdle) – 3m (Grade 2)
 
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 8 winning favourites (including joints) from 13 for a profit of £7.71 (ROI +59.3%).
Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 4/1 or shorter.
Days off track: 7 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 20 and 27 days.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter LTO (all 10 winners were 15/2 or shorter LTO).
LTO Favourites: Horses that started favourite LTO have provided 6 winners from 26 runners for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +25.5%).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record with 5 of the 15 qualifiers going onto win this race.
Trainers: 2 wins from 4 for Alan King.
Jockets: 3 wins from 5 for Tony Mc Coy.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have a poor record with 0 wins from 14.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 7 qualifiers (SR 28.6%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 7 year olds and older have won 1 race from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%).
Trends analysis: A race where the positive trends are key. Favourites have an excellent record and hence it is not surprising to see horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO doing well also. Horses that ran at Cheltenham LTO should be respected and also look for horses that were fancied LTO – LTO favourites have done especially well. In terms of fitness, horses off the track for between 20 and 27 days have done especially well.
 
 
 
3.05 Cheltenham – StanJames.com International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 12 for a profit of £5.69 (ROI +47.4%).
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. 7 won LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.80 (+169%).
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a handicap LTO have provided 6 winners from 24 for a profit of £23.80 (ROI +99.2%).
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners have run within the past 28 days.
Trainers: 3 wins from 7 for Philip Hobbs; 2 wins from 7 for Nicky Henderson.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Irish bred horses have managed just 2 wins from 30 for a loss of £23.75 (ROI -79.2%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 10 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 17.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 21 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 3 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.7%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7 %); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).
Trends analysis: once again there are plenty of positive stats. A run in the past 4 weeks has been crucial as has a position LTO in the top three (with a strong preference for LTO winners. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a very good record and this is a clear plus, while a run in a handicap LTO has also been a positive. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding, while Irish bred runners have generally struggled.
 
3.40 Cheltenham – Relkeel hurdle – 2 miles 4f 110yds (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: Horses that finished first or second LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners for a break even situation.
Course LTO: All of last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.
Breeding: 6 of the last 10 winners were French bred.
Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.
Previous Cheltenham run: 9 of the last 10 winners had all had experience of Cheltenham.
Trainers: 3 wins from 6 for Alan King.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Upped in class: Horses that were upped in class from their most recent run have a moderate record with 3 wins from 29.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a loss of £3.00.
Age: 4 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 5 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 18.2%).
Trends analysis: The market has been a good guide in this race with the top three in the betting producing 90% of the winners. French breds have done well while a run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been of paramount importance. Trainer Alan King has done very well with 3 wins, while for in running punters hold up horses have performed poorly. In terms of age 4yos may have a slight edge but it is a little unclear.
 
 

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

 

Penalty Carriers in Uk Horse Racing

Horse Racing Penalty Carriers

In uk horse racing terms “a penalty” is extra weight
a horse must carry.

Normally it is applied if a horse has a second race
a few days after a win.

The official handicapper may not have had time to
reassess the horses official handicap mark
and due to the lack of time simply forces the horse
to carry penalty weight next time out.

It is I guess a system intended to stop
horses winning several times in very quick succession
from an over lenient handicap mark before the handicapper
has a chance to do his calculations and re assess the official handicap mark.

Penalty carries however have two obvious things going for them.
Having just won a  race they are obviously

- in good form

- have proven ability.

You can’t just back them all blindly and expect to make a profit however.
But with a bit of research you can certainly find past profitable niches
within penalty carriers.

See the article below for further reading.

Penalty Carriers

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Horse Racing Nuggets

My mate Dave Renham is a mine of information on uk horse racing.

I am firm believer that if you take the time to carefully assess the past you are likely to make better decissions about the future.

This applies very well to betting on horses as well as to other walks of life.

Dave recently started producing a little column called “Do You Know” for full members over at www.PunterProfits.com.

This is just a tiny extra on top of all the usual great research learning over there.

Below is a copy of a recent one.

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Did you know?

This is a new section that I started last week where I will share some facts and figs that hopefully you will find interesting and useful. Last week I mentioned that Dandy Nicholls had a great record in the Ayr Gold – the result of the 2010 race on Saturday saw Nicholls have the first and second at 14/1 and 8/1. Here are the facts and figs for this week:

  • Did you know that favourites in Novice chases win around 46% of the time? Despite the high strike rate however, they make a loss of around 4% to SP.
  • Did you know that Tony Mc Coy has ridden 23 winners from 104 for Paul Nicholls in the past 5 years? BUT despite a decent strike rate you would have lost £388.90 if you had backed all 104 runners at £10 per bet.
  • Do you know the chances of six National Hunt favourites winning all six races on a six race card? Well statistically it should occur once in every 774 meetings (this is assuming NH favourites win 33% of all races – which they tend to do).
  • Horses that won on the flat last time out lose around 17 pence in the £ if you back them to repeat their win. However, horses that won in National Hunt racing last time out lose under 14 pence in the £ if you back them to repeat their win.
  • Since 2005 Frankie Dettori has won just over 20% of the races he has ridden in. However, despite that he has had a losing run of 31.

Uk Horse Racing Favourites Research

Uk Horse Racing Favourites Research

Many love backing favourites for good reason.

They win more races than 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites etc.

Just blindly backing favourites alone however will not make you cash.

You need to know which favourites to back and which to avoid.

Dave Renham has just released a free research document that is very much worth your attention.

Favourites typically win 30% of the time.

Which trainer however wins with 43.9% of his runners when they go off favourite?

Find that out and a lot more in Dave’s excellent FREE flat racing favourites report.

To get your copy click here == > Flat Racing Favourites

Stewards Cup At Goodwood

A look at the Stewards Cup at Goodwood from Guy over at mathematician -betting.

To visit Guys site click here  ===> UK  Horse Racing Tips

G O O D W O O D

It is not so Glorious today as the meeting shows its teeth and the full force of its bite today with a Savaging card.
I have no choice but to try and do the Stewards Cup today as that’s high on everybodys list of races to
Bet in but I wont be spending a great deal of time of this card today as its pretty ferocious.

The 2.30pm is Listed race for 3 year olds over a Mile and it’s got a long history.
I thought it was intersting horses coming from 3yo handicaps were 0-24.
FREEFORADAY looks one to avoid doing that. TREADWELL comes
from an all aged  handicaps and the 2 winners doing that were less exposed
and had a more recent run. LONG LASHES is a debutant and there were
2 debutants but they were Males with 2 runs and she is a female with 4 runs.
FIELD OF DREAMS has a chance and I’d see both these as a little unsafe
but possible winners. I respect CRITICAL MOMENTS who should run well.
Unclear as yet whether yesterdays handicap winner SEA LORD will run again
and if he does he has to be respected with yesterdays run sure to either improve his chance of kill it.
The one that interested  me most was DESERT MYTH as many winners dropped down
from 10f Conditions races and they were all very lightly raced  and a stable
with a good record in this I like DESERT MYTH

GOODWOOD 3.40

Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

8/1 Genki, 9/1 Enact, 9/1 Palace Moon, 10/1 Jonny Mudball
12/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, Noverre To Go, 14/1 Striking Spirit 16/1 Johannes,
16/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 16/1 Parisian Pyramid 16/1 Secret Asset,
20/1 Castles In The Air, 25/1 Hitchens,  25/1 Jimmy Styles, 25/1 Knot In Wood,
33/1 Evens And Odds 33/1 Ingleby Lady, 33/1 Prohibit, 33/1 Run For The Hills 33/1
Sir Gerry, 40/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 40/1 Prime Exhibit 40/1 Singeur, 50/1 Advanced,
Ancien Regime, 50/1 Edge Closer 50/1 Sonny Red, 66/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Stewards Cup in a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* There has been 19 renewals since 1991
* Exposed horses won 5 of the 19 renewals
* Those with under 6 runs that year were 1-117
* Those aged 4 were 1-59 and he had Group 3 class form
* Those exposed with form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 were 0-71
* Those exposed absent over a month were 0-59
* Those exposed from a 5f race were just 1-125
* Those exposed with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-46
* Horses from 5f struggle but only 1 runner does that today
* Horses aged 6 or more have a  2-182 record in this race
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-92
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-125
* Those that came from 6f or shorter were 0-162
* Horses aged 3 have a poor 1-68 record in this race
* Horses aged 3 with 9 + career runs were 0-48
* Horses that come from conditions races struggle
* They have a 1-100 record in this race
* Horses that come from Listed or Group class are 0-67
* Horses that lost by 6 or more lengths last time were 2-165
* None of these were absent over a Month or came from 7f
* None of these had 1-2-3-4-5 runs this season (0-84)
* Fillies have a 1-61 record in this race
* That was a 4yo with under 7 runs and 3 runs that year

POSSIBLES

NOVERRE TO GO – Has an acceptable profile
JONNY MUDBALL – Just enough to shortlist
PALACE MOON – Reasonable chance

SELECTION

STRIKING SPIRIT

The 3 Possibles above have decent chances but none of them
are quite right statistically and have minor flaws. Whilst I can say the same
about STRIKING SPIRIT he is a whisker away from being perfect and
I think he has as good a chance to win this as any. He was only beaten
6 lengths in last years race on ground too soft when he went off too fast
and I think he was badly drawn last year.
This year he has proved himself to be  a Top notch sprint handicapper.
He’d be my choice at 16/1.

16/1 paying out on 5 places available at Bet365 and stanjames

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Draw Bias Explained

In flat racing the horses start the race from metal starting stalls.
The draw refers to a horse’s placing / position in the starting stalls.
Draw 1 is on the left, while the highest number is on the right.
On left handed round courses the lowest draw is drawn next to the inside rail;
on right handed courses the highest draw is drawn next to the inside rail.

The draw can be very important at certain courses over certain distances.

This is due to a number of factors – it could be that some horses have an
advantage because they are drawn on the inside and are hence able to
take the shortest route round the bend.
Picture I guess the 400m in athletics and the advantage you would
have on the inside track if starting positions were not staggered.

Another factor that can induce draw bias is the ground.
It could be that the ground close to one of the rails is quicker than the
rest of the course and hence those horse drawn in the right position can
take best advantage of the better ground.

To give you an idea of how strong draw biases can be ponder Chester over
5 furlongs. 5f at Chester is a classic case of a draw bias resulting from track configuration.

Since 1997 horses drawn 1 (on the inside) have won 43 of 205
races which is better than winning 1 race in every five.

You would have made a profit backing all horses drawn 1 over that period.
Compare this to horses drawn 10 or higher who have combined to win just 1 race from 276 runners!

Knowledge of where Draw Bias is likely to occur is very important to have.

Draw Bias stats can be used in a variety of ways.

Well drawn horses should be given much more consideration when analyzing a race for example.
Conversely poorly drawn horses have a severe negative to overcome and
you should be wary if you wish to back them. You may use the draw to
eliminate all the weaker drawn horses in order to make the race easier.

Clearly occasionally these poorer drawn horses will win but overall the stats
will be in your favour. At some courses backing the best drawn horse or best
two drawn horses has made a long term profit – this is a rather simplistic way
of using the draw but it can be profitable.

Indeed you may want to consider backing the best drawn horses in forecasts and tricasts.
For example, looking at Thirsk over 5 furlongs – from 2005 to 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps
(the best races to use draw bias) if you had permed the highest four draws in twenty four
£1 straight tricasts in every race would have yielded a profit of £1265.24 (ROI +175.7%).
If you had permed the highest four draws in twelve £1 straight forecasts in every race would
have yielded a profit of £206.90 (ROI +57.5%).
This bet would have been landed in 12 of the 30 races (40% of races).
These types of forecast / tricast bet offer big returns for a relatively small outlay.

A further way to use Draw Bias information is to look for horses that run well
despite being hampered by a very serious draw bias against it.

A horse that comes 4th for example when very badly drawn could do much better
in a future race if on an equal draw or favourorable draw footing.

Dave Renham

Author Bio:

Dave Renham is a uk horse racing researcher who specialises
in cold hard facts and figures that can be used to open your eyes
to more informed betting propositions.

Draw Bias relative to each days racing is one area he covers in his excellent daily racing stats service.  For more info on this click here ==> Draw Bias

Horse Racing Trainer Research

When it comes to uk horse racing it pays to know your trainers !

Trainers exhibit very different performances under varying race conditions.

Some do very well with their 2 year olds whilst others do far better with their other horses.

With varying training regimes aimed at peaking horses at different times of year monthly performance stats are also important to consider.

Dave over at PunterProfits recently compiled a serious research document into racing trainers who run on the uk flat season.

He tidied it all up and has created a neat pdf file with easy to use bookmark clickable links that jump you to the data on any particular trainer.

A few quick ideas for usage:

1 – If you like to assess your own races it is an obvious mine of extra information you can use to form a more correct betting opinion

2 – Use it as a base to create your own systematic betting or laying approach.  ie pick out for your self the criteria for a bet using the strike rate and profitibility records supplied. Look for the most positive stats if you are a backer or the most negative ones if you are a layer.

Two links for you to examine

A – a mini article covering three trainers with sample data pulled from the main pdf.  Click Here ===> Flat Horse Racing Trainer Research

B – A short video showing the full copy of the document in use

Click Here ===> Horse Racing Trainer Video

The free stuff above is worth a look.

To get the full research document you need to join as a full member of PunterProfits.

This research doc is just a little extra perk of membership there.

There are in fact three other similar research reports you get on joining.

One for All Weather Racing

One For National Hunt Trainers

And finally another comprehensive report into favourites.

Even if you only stay one month there you get to keep all four research reports.

Worth a look if you are serious about your betting on the horses and value having quality research to guide your judgement.

Free Horse Racing Course

Uk Horse racing researcher Dave Renham has just released a FREE Horse Racing Course

It covers some basics those new to betting on the horses may find useful to help them get to grips with the game.

Also however there is a bit of more advanced thinking in the latter chapters as Dave expalins some of the key elements of race form one should use if assessing a horse race.

On the whole its an interesting read and well worth a look at the hefty price tag of a big fat zero.

Get your copy now at the link below.

Click Here ==>      Free Horse Racing Course

Trainers Who Send Just One Horse To A Meeting

In Uk Horse Racing it is often judged by punters a positive sign if a trainer sends just one horse to a meeting. The assumption made may be that if he is going to the expense and trouble to transport just one horse all the way to a course he must have good reason.

Is this just an old wives tale or is there some truth in it?

Dave Renham from PunterProfits.com trawled through about 5 years of National Hunt Horse Racing Results to try and get to the truth of things.

He made the assumption that each trainer would take a different attitude so he researched everything on a trainer by trainer basis.

For members over there he produced a downloadable spreadsheet with all the key facts and info such as strike rates and return on investment listed.

The full spreadsheet can be downloaded at the link below.

Note however you have to be a full member of punterprofits.com to get it.

http://www.punterprofits.com/profit/index.php?showtopic=10247

In respect to Dave and the members there I don’t want to detail all his research here however here are a few selected facts from his research for two of the top National Hunt Trainers

Trainer Runners Wins Strike rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
PF Nicholls 354 114 32.2 £24.04 6.8
D Pipe 268 62 23.1 £38.51 14.4

( ROI = Return On Investment .. a measure of profitability )

As you can see if one of these two trainers sends just one horse to a meeting it can indeed be taken as a positive sign.

Word of warning however .. not all trainers think the same way.

Dave’s fuller research details where this can be taken as a positive sign and where it should be ignored.

Interestingly it is even more positive than the above with some of the mid range / not so well known  trainers.

If you have been burnt by so called miracle systems and the sellers who hype them up you may start to come round to the conclusion that the only way to get ahead in your racing betting  is via knowledge and hard work.

If you have reached that stage of your racing betting career yet the continual research carried out by Dave over at PunterProfits.com should be of interest to you in keeping you ahead of the field on the Exchanges.

Course Favourite Statistics

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS – this section looks at the stats for favourites at today’s courses in certain race types (data taken from 2002 to 2008)

This is just a small section of a very comprehensive horse racing statistics message provided daily by the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk

( give it a go.. get your money back with their 30 day refund guarantee if not for you in the end )

  Ascot favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 18 70 25.7 +£7.38 +10.5 3.15, 5.35
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 240 20.4 -£36.47 -15.2 1.25, 3.50

  York favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 334 22.5 +£11.46 +3.4 2.35, 3.45, 4.50, 5.25
2yo maidens 35 95 36.8 +£0.11 +0.1 4.15

  Newmarket July favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 40 155 25.8 -£6.77 -4.4 2.50, 4.35, 5.10
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 83 333 24.9 -£15.02 -4.5 2.20, 3.25
2yo maidens 62 161 38.5 +£2.82  +1.8 1.50, 4.00

  Newcastle favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 29 94 30.9 +£12.41 +13.2 4.10
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 67 320 20.9 -£29.66 -9.3 4.45, 5.20, 6.25
2yo maidens 44 122 36.1 -£3.71 -3.0 3.00, 3.30

  Salisbury favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 20 106 18.9 -£35.98 -33.9 8.40
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 54 262 20.6 -£67.37 -25.7 6.00, 8.10
3yo+ maidens 18 49 36.7 -£7.14 -14.6 7.35
3yo only maidens 24 52 46.2 +£15.24 +29.3  
2yo maidens 36 119 30.3 -£17.79 -14.9 7.05

  Lingfield (turf) favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 28 93 30.1 +£22.80 +24.5 7.55
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 186 26.3 +£7.63 +4.1 5.45, 6.15, 8.25
3yo+ maidens 31 73 42.5 -£3.31 -4.5 7.20
3yo only maidens 6 12 50.0 -£1.57 -13.1  
2yo maidens 47 92 51.1 +£9.51 +10.3 6.45

Info provided by RacingTrends. To visit their site click here ==> UK Horse Racing Advice