Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday, September 4th, 2010 at 12:49 pm  
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Saturday Horse Racing Stats

 


The info below comes from Dave over at RacingTrends
This is actually just a small snippet from his comprehensive message for today.
Don’t treat them as simple racing tips.
They are more aimed as little nuggets of well researched facts that can help you when examining a race for yourself.

Few betting Exchange users go into such depth. Over the long term if you
know more than others do ..you should win more than others do when competing
against them on Betfair.

 

SR stands for strike rate

ROI return on investment

 

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POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

 

2.30 Haydock – Solemn: Positive sire stats – Pivotal aged
5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

 

3.05 Haydock – Kansai Spirit: John Gosden in September –
horse ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

 

4.10 Haydock – Morache Music: P Makin runners that finished
in 1st three LTO and running within 7 days; SR 43.3%; ROI +99.2%

 

4.45 Haydock – Kalleidoscope: Positive sire stats – Pivotal
aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

 

5.15 Haydock – Bowdler’s Magic: Positive Sire Stats – Hernando
3yos on turf over 12f+ SR 22.3%; ROI +58.5%

 

2.15 Kempton – Signs In The Sand **: S Bin Suroor – June
to September on the all weather; top 4 of the betting SR 38.1%; ROI +43.8%

 

2.45 Kempton – Holberg **: S Bin Suroor – June to September
on the all weather; top 4 of the betting SR 38.1%; ROI +43.8%

 

2.45 Kempton – Once More Dubai **: S Bin Suroor – June to
September on the all weather; top 4 of the betting SR 38.1%; ROI +43.8%

 

3.20 Kempton – Clockmaker: John Gosden in September – horse
ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

 

4.20 Kempton – Sir Pitt: John Gosden – male runners coming
back after a break of 100+ days; SR 23.1%; ROI +20.5%

 

4.20 Kempton – Sir Pitt: John Gosden in September – horse
ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

 

4.20 Kempton – Bravo Bravo: Penalty carriers on the all
weather; male + ran within last 3 days; SR 30.9%; ROI +28.2%

 

5.25 Kempton – Primaeval: Positive sire stats – Pivotal
aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

 

2.55 Thirsk – Green Lightning: M Johnston – 3yos running
in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo+ races; off track for 4 weeks or less; SR 27.1%;
ROI +63.6%

 

5.10 Thirsk – Perignon: G Swinbank – 2yos June to September
ridden by pro jockey; ran in maiden LTO SR 22.7%; ROI +131.6%

 

5.10 Thirsk – Johnny Castle **: J Gosden – 2yos on turf;
off track for 15 days+, top 3 in betting SR 37.5; ROI +21.8%

 

5.10 Thirsk – Johnny Castle: John Gosden in Sept/October
– 2yos in non handicaps NOT on debut SR 27.8%; ROI +45.7%

 

5.10 Thirsk – Johnny Castle: John Gosden in September – horse ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

 

5.40 Thirsk – Colebrooke **: M Johnston – 2yo males racing
at 7f or more in non handicaps; top 3 of the betting SR 35.4%; ROI +22.7%

5.40 Thirsk – Mutajare **: M Johnston – 2yo males racing
at 7f or more in non handicaps; top 3 of the betting SR 35.4%; ROI +22.7%

 

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going*
dependent

 

1.55 Thirsk – Guinea Seeker **: Poor trainer stat – T Easterby
2yos in Auction races when NOT favourite SR 3.6%; ROI -63%

 

ROI In Horse Racing

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010 at 9:52 am  
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ROI In Horse Racing

I received a question from someone new to betting on horses.

They had seen me refer to ROI and wondered what that meant.

Quite simply ROI stands for Return on Investment.

It is a way to measure the profitability of a set of betting selections
whether they be your personal picks, system selections or a tipsters tips.

A complete mad gambler is unlikely to care about such things.
If however you have a more investor style attitude to your betting
ROI figures give you a very good measure as to whether a method is worth following or not.

Let’s do a few quick examples.

Example 1:

Assume you place 100 bets of £100 each

The total you have invested is 100 * £100 = £10,000

For arguments sake let’s say your bets do well and the total return to you is £12,000

( ie £10,000 original stake and £2000 profit )

Your Return on Investment ( ROI ) is therefore £12000 / £10000 = 1.2

Normally this is expressed as a percentage

As a percentage 1.2 is 120%

Example 2:

This time let us assume the betting has not been so good and has lost some money.

Again we have 100 bets of £100 each for a total investment of £10,000

The return this time is less than staked.

We only get £7000 back.

So ROI = £7000/£10000 = 0.7

Or expressed as a percentage 70%

From the above you can see that the breakeven mark is at the line of 1.0 or 100%

ROI above 100% is good
Below it is bad

Profit on Turnover

POT or Profit on Turnover is an alternate measure of betting profitability.

Here we look at net profits as opposed to net return   ( return includes original stake )

Using the same data from the two examples above

1 – POT = £2000 / £10000 = 0.2 or 20%

2 – POT = -£3000 / £10000 = -0.3 or -30%

Note how when using POT 0% is the line of breakeven.
Also note that POT can be positive or negative.

Stats For Saturdays Horse Racing

Saturday, July 17th, 2010 at 1:23 pm  
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The below comes from Dave Renhams blog see horse racing blog

The favourites stats are based on many years historical research.

( his members get much more detail including strike rate and return on investment etc )

As for the In running notes.

The rough idea with these is to back them pre race and lay them back in running. The rough logic behind them is that these horses are assessed by Dave’s research as prominant front runners and are therfore likely to trade at lower when betting in running compared to pre off prices.

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Best races for favourites:

Newmarket  1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

8.10 Haydock Welsh Emperor

Best Races For Favourites

Saturday, May 15th, 2010 at 10:29 am  
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Best Races For Favourites

If you examine the long term history of  individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.

There are two key measures of good or bad.

- Strike rate of favourites

and

- The profit or loss from betting them.

Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.

Newmarket 2.45

Newbury 3.40

Bangor 4.40, 5.15

Uttoxeter 6.20

Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35

The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.

He puts up similar for free each Saturday.

His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.

eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.

If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/sbb-free-trial.php

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

Saturday, March 27th, 2010 at 12:37 pm  
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Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

——————————————————-

In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).
Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run: 14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).
Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints): 4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints): 2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.

Scottish Football Betting Advice

Saturday, February 20th, 2010 at 11:56 am  
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Scottish Football Betting Advice

The following is a tip from Tammboy over at the Football Bets site.

Tammboy is an ex bookmaker odds compiler who has now turned his hand to winning cash

for his clients.

So far this season his strike rate is over 50% and perhpas even more impressive is a return on investment in the 40% region !!

This is just one of several bets he has today.

SPL – Kilmarnock WIN @ Evs (vs. St Mirren) – 3 Star Bet ( Bet365, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower )

Analysis

Kilmarnock vs. St Mirren

Kilmarnock are in good form having won their last 4 games on the trot. They’ve been strong at home managing to beat Celtic too. St Mirren haven’t been quite as impressive having not won any in their last 6, their away form in woeful too so this rates as a good bet at Evens for Kilmarnock to win.

To finfd out more about him click here ==> Football Betting Advice

Trainers Who Send Just One Horse To A Meeting

Saturday, December 19th, 2009 at 1:16 pm  
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In Uk Horse Racing it is often judged by punters a positive sign if a trainer sends just one horse to a meeting. The assumption made may be that if he is going to the expense and trouble to transport just one horse all the way to a course he must have good reason.

Is this just an old wives tale or is there some truth in it?

Dave Renham from PunterProfits.com trawled through about 5 years of National Hunt Horse Racing Results to try and get to the truth of things.

He made the assumption that each trainer would take a different attitude so he researched everything on a trainer by trainer basis.

For members over there he produced a downloadable spreadsheet with all the key facts and info such as strike rates and return on investment listed.

The full spreadsheet can be downloaded at the link below.

Note however you have to be a full member of punterprofits.com to get it.

http://www.punterprofits.com/profit/index.php?showtopic=10247

In respect to Dave and the members there I don’t want to detail all his research here however here are a few selected facts from his research for two of the top National Hunt Trainers

Trainer Runners Wins Strike rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
PF Nicholls 354 114 32.2 £24.04 6.8
D Pipe 268 62 23.1 £38.51 14.4

( ROI = Return On Investment .. a measure of profitability )

As you can see if one of these two trainers sends just one horse to a meeting it can indeed be taken as a positive sign.

Word of warning however .. not all trainers think the same way.

Dave’s fuller research details where this can be taken as a positive sign and where it should be ignored.

Interestingly it is even more positive than the above with some of the mid range / not so well known  trainers.

If you have been burnt by so called miracle systems and the sellers who hype them up you may start to come round to the conclusion that the only way to get ahead in your racing betting  is via knowledge and hard work.

If you have reached that stage of your racing betting career yet the continual research carried out by Dave over at PunterProfits.com should be of interest to you in keeping you ahead of the field on the Exchanges.

Horse Racing System Bet For Saturday

Saturday, July 18th, 2009 at 12:47 pm  
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This bet comes from the NH Portfolio over at www.PunterProfits.com

The Nh Portfolio is actually a collection of six different horse racing systems.

Todays bet qualifes under not just one system but two.

Hostorically these “double qualifers” have produced stronger results than the single qualifers. ( which are pretty darn good anyhow )

Over ten years or so of records these double qualifers have produced a strike rate of 46% and a return on investment of over 20% at starting price.

Market Rasen 4.50 Arctic Shadow  SYSTEM A & D

Best priced 15/8 CentreBet

lots of 7/4 available as well Ladbrokes , BSquare , Bet365 etc.

One Bet Per Month

Saturday, July 11th, 2009 at 12:06 pm  
Comments (1)

The “One Bet Per Month” thread is running over in the full member area of www.PunterProfits.com

The rough idea is that several key contributers contribute one strong or good value bet each month each.

( with several contributers and some somethimes stretching beyond just one each month there is more than one bet per month on the thread )

This concentration and focus is paying dividends so far with 15.5 points profit at SP from 40 selections.

That’s a healthy return on investment of over 38 % !

There is a selection for today.

4.40 Chester Act Of Kalanisi best priced at 5/4 Ladbrokes and VC.

Roughly the same on Betfair.

To visit PunterProfits click here ===> Horse Racing Systems

Horse Racing Stats For Saturday

Saturday, June 13th, 2009 at 11:57 am  
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It always helps to understand the past when betting on horses.

Below are a few interesting facts for Saturday’s racing.

These are just a tiny tiny sample from the member message over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Positive Stat

Pegasus Lad   (1:50 Sandown)      Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less and tackling at least 1m1f; SR 20.6% ROI +23.8%

Negative Stat

The Two G’s   (5:50 Lingfield)       Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%

SR = strike rate

ROI = return on investment

figures based on about a decade of past horse racing history