Hennessy Racing Tip

Hennessy Racing Tip

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
sky VC Tote

Doncaster Racing Tip

The below is a brief extract from today’s email from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Yesterday’s client message focussed on the 2pm at Sandown
and both horses dissapointed. Not too bothered about the race
Ace of Spies ran in 7th as he was a big priced outsider
and it was an optimistic shout. I was bothered about a
disgraceful ride that EQUULEUS PICTOR ran. I dont
think the horse was doing his best. My view is that he
was deliberately stopped from winning. It’s all too easy
to say that after a loser but thats my impression. The
horse drifted ominously in the betting. He was the one
horse that missed the break. Within a furlong Daryll
Holland switched him to the far side of the track well
known to be the slowest part of the course. He raced
there isolated away from the action and only when he
had conceded a lot of ground did he try and faked the
impression he was racing. At the very best it was one
of the most Naive and stupid rides I have witnessed
in a long time. At worst he was stopped and that has
to be my view. In the end pleased I didnt make him a
full bet. Perhaps with the horse so well backed in the
morning connections missed their price. I might just
be completely wrong but if you havent seen the race
yet its worth a look. I’d be surprised if most people
didnt agree with me that the ride was very suspicious.

If any of you have your own comments on that race
feel free to post them below.

On to today

DONCASTER 3.40

Bet On Breeders Cup At Totesport.com
Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

5/1 Inler, Mac´s Power, 9/1 Tax Free, 10/1 Doncaster Rover
10/1 Hitchens, 10/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 12/1 Croisultan
14/1 Cheveton, 16/1 R Woody, 20/1 Angel´s Pursuit
20/1 Anglezarke, 20/1 Mirza, 20/1 Russian Spirit
25/1 Enderby Spirit, 25/1 Icelandic, 33/1 Fullandby
40/1 Doric Lady, 40/1 Esuvia, 100/1 Great Charm.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 20 renewals of this race
* There are a few angles that could narrow this down
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* No horse aged 3 or 4 won if beaten 6 + lengths last time
* Horses from 5f races struggled
* None were female and None came from 5f handicaps
* Horses from 7f races had a weak 1-71 record
* 3 year olds are weak and none came from handicaps
* There are 3 horses that pass these angles
* MAC´S POWER – DONCASTER ROVER -HITCHENS

Selection -  MAC’S POWER each way

Currently 11/2 at blue sq

or see http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-11-06/doncaster/15-40/betting

All Weather Racing Tip

This comes from Guy over at mathematician betting.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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Thanks for positive comments received about last weekend’s 12/1 winner hardball.

Glad to see some of you reinvesting a portion of your winnings in a membership of my private service.

This free blog carries just a tiny tiny fraction of the full member advice.

Wolverhamton 1.20
BOLODENKA 11/2 CoralWilliam Hill vc
Win Bet

BOLODENKA is 11/2 but also the outsider in a small
4 runner race. I think he ran well last time and it did
give me some encouragement that he can win this. I
could be made to look silly as his trainer also has the
favourite today in the race. I think the favourite has
an unimpressive profile. All 4 winners have chances
in this race so no negatives at all but BOLODENKA
has been brilliant placed rated 85 and facing only a
0-74 handicap and you can go back years for the last
time he ran against such low rated horses.

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20

£32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-87) 1m141y

11/8 Bawaardi, 7/2 Justcallmehandsome
11/2 Bolodenka, 11/2 Quick Release.

The 1st thing that crossed my mind was that we had
a class horse in BOLODENKA rated 85 having had a
rating of 95 recently – Taking on a 0-74 class field.

That makes BOLODENKA look better class than
these and brilliantly placed. The flaw in the argument
is whether BOLODENKA is able to run to his mark
and there is a doubt about that. Throw in the added
complication that Richard Fahey his trainer also has
the favourite BAWAARDI in the race. Statistically
I am opposing BAWAARDI. I looked at all similar
handicaps at this time of year. Horses like him who
came from 3yo handicaps had a poor 2-56 record
and both winners had 9 + runs and he has 6 and they
also had form in Class 2 races before and he doesnt
so I think BAWAARDI is vulnerable. He has had a
recent run but no 3yo won with a recent run anyway
and I am opposing him. The issue for me is whether
BOLODENKA can beat the two other horses. Both
have ability and are capable of winning a race like
this. Neither of them have the class that He has.
He comes from one of the better Claiming races
which relaxes me a bit. I think BOLODENKA has
to be the bet as he must be in the easiest race he has
ran in for a long time.

SELECTION – BOLODENKA

Market Bias Horse Racing System

The Market Bias Racing System is one from the betting think tank over at PunterProfits.com

It is an approach currently being monitored on the full member forums over there.  Its early days in the testing but it is doing well so far with a decent level stakes profit.

The general concept of is was to use historical research to indentify race situations where the outsider / long shots had a better than anticipated strike rate.

Forecast odds price bands are used to group horses into groups of fancied, middled odds & Outsiders. ( hence the Market Bias name tag )

There is also a filter based on horse age as this proved important in the historical research.

And remember the choice of race type / course etc is based on historical research.

So quite simply the system tells you..

1 -this particular race falls into a long term past profitable category for outsiders.

2 – the horse falls into the desired age band. ( its not too inexperienced or to past it )

3 – these are the horses today from that race that fit the price band.

Most often there may be two or so per race.

Overall its an interesting approach.

I think the ideal place to back these horses is Betfair.

Betfairs 20% better than SP big public quote is a bit misleading.

The reality is that short odds horses there go off very close to SP.

Long shots however on Betfair very often pay out well in excess of 20% above SP ( or any early bookmaker price )

Any how the selections for today are as follows

4.25 hayd
Atlantic Beach
Flying Applause
Jack Rackham

5.00 hay
Kashimin
Supermassive Muse

Nb there is quite a bit going on over at PunterProfits.com

There are research articles, research reports, historic data downloads on certain areas. Also monitored systems by the site organisers and by clients alike. ( the research provided is a great starting point for anyone seeking to create their own educated systems )

Any reader of sports betting blog is welcome to test the site out with a one month free trial. ( you will have to stick card details in as they do not want anomononous nobodies with a throw away email address in their private forums )

Your first month will be free however. Its a good way to judge if suitable for your self.

See their contact page and email the admin email address quoting the free trial for sports betting blog viewers and you will get free trial join instructions sent back to you.

To go to their site now  click here ==> Horse Racing Systems