The below comes from Dave Renhams blog see horse racing blog

The favourites stats are based on many years historical research.

( his members get much more detail including strike rate and return on investment etc )

As for the In running notes.

The rough idea with these is to back them pre race and lay them back in running. The rough logic behind them is that these horses are assessed by Dave’s research as prominant front runners and are therfore likely to trade at lower when betting in running compared to pre off prices.

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Best races for favourites:

Newmarket  1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

8.10 Haydock Welsh Emperor

A few pointers for Saturday’s horse racing from Dave over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Dave bases this info on his research of many years historic racing.

Strong Hint: The last time out winners to avoid have been pretty arrurate in the past providing good returns for layers.

My own logic would say that a horse that won last time out tends to get a lot of unthinking support just because it won last time. Many mug punters will blindly back it for that reason alone ignoring factors such as has it been upped in class or is it running on suitable ground or distance.

The last time out winners to avoid below are gleaned by Dave’s examination into such horses. He has identified several key factors that indicate when a LTO winner is SIGNIFICANTLY NOT a good bet.

In technical betting terms the rough overall logic in laying these is that the one the face of it attractive win last time out is widely reported and noted by punters all across the land. This often causes some over betting of such horses. You can get a bit of long term value by selectively opposing them.

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Saturday 3rd July

BEST RACES FOR FAVOURITES

1.55, 3.35, 4.45 Leicester

2.35 Sandown

5.35 Beverley

6.40 Nottingham

7.25, 8.55 Carlisle

LAST TIME OUT WINNERS TO AVOID – these LTO have poor stats and are unlikely to follow up their recent win

3.25    Haydock – Hillview Boy

4.10    Leicester – Indian Skipper

4.50    Sandown – Mass Rally

5.20    Leicester – Bidable

6. 55   Carlisle – Feeling Fresh

Haydock Horse Racing Advice

The below comes from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

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Clearly the big issue today is the rain that is falling everywhere.
We might see ground changes at many tracks but that’s not
certain to happen and it does make it impossible to approach
the day as confident as I would like.
The Conditions are against us with this rain.
If I were to have an account bet today I couldn’t answer
the obvious question of whether the ground is right so
decided to have a No Account Bet Saturday because of this.

By tomorrow we will know the Newmarket ground better
and the draw advantage so Sunday may be the time for a
bet there.

Despite the above I know many of you will want to have an interest today.
Here is one to consider if so.

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA – LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find  none  of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Horse Racing Tip For Saturday

This comes from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

LINGFIELD 5.30

6/1 My Learned Friend, 13/2 Hazzard County, Oh So Saucy
7/1 Shaded Edge, 8/1 Realt Na Mara, 8/1 Rubenstar
8/1 Straight Face, 10/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Headache
12/1 Ravi River, 14/1 Carmenero, 14/1 El Libertador
25/1 Sam´s Cross, 33/1 Oi Vay Joe, 66/1 Crystal B Good.

This 7f handicap is for Lady Amateurs. You can argue a
high draw is a must in this race but last years winner was
drawn in stall 1 just to throw uncertainty into the mix.
I’d be demanding a high draw myself. OH SO SAUCY looks
weak as a mare absent over 7 months and drawn 1. I see
ALQAAHIR as opposable. All his wins (5) are on sand
so having never won on turf its strange to see him with
a higher handicap mark on grass and I don’t like his draw.
EL LIBERTADOR – CRYSTAL B GOOD -  HEADACHE
are all badly drawn and offering nothing at all to entice me.
OI VAY JOE has been absent too long. I am happy to ignore
SAM´S CROSS – SHADED EDGE with their absences.
HAZZARD COUNTY is more complicated but he does not
come out well enough. I cant rule out REALT NA MARA but
exposed and unraced in over 6 months brings it’s own problems.
RAVI RIVER looks weak from sellers. CARMENERO weak up in trip.

MY LEARNED FRIEND is shortlistable after coming
4th in last years race from a poor draw first time out.
He has a run this year.

My selection is STRAIGHT FACE who won last time.
Its quite interesting that the last 3 winners of this race
all won last time out. Since 1993 last time out winners
in all Amateur races that had 4 or more runs that year
and that were aged under 8 years old had an excellent
W W W W W record in these races. He was a little bit
lucky to win last time but the real issue is he is fit and
running well with confidence and well drawn and with
similar horses doing curiously well in these races I see
STRAIGHT FACE as a good a bet as any in this race.

STRAIGHT FACE Each Way
8/1 William Hill 0r Betfred

Below is a small portion of the very comprehensive horse racing data message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

The bit I have picked out covers stats for favourites for races running Saturday May 8th

His full message also contains a lot more data about draw bias and trainers etc.

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ascot favourites

Haydock favourites

Lingfield favourites

Nottingham favourites

Thirsk favourites

Warwick favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

=====================================

Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3^rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Newmarket trainer stats

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

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In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> free horse racing tips

Right now I have to admit I am more focussed on preparation next week’s Cheltenham Festival than today’s racing.
I have already researched all my stats for the Festival.
( up on full member private message board now )
As it stands today I have identified six horses over the Festival that have the potential to be full Account bets.
Going, final runners, a bit more fine tuned research  and odds available will dictate if I account Bet them or not on race day.

The cheap first month deal for Cheltenham is still on.
Time is ticking on it however.

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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Saturday Racing

I don’t see a bet strong enough to stake today as a full Account Bet.
I’ve 3 horses at the top of the full member message that look interesting.

One of them I will post up here on the free blog.

MICKY’S KNOCK OFF feels stronger but only because
in his race the opposition are easier to understand. The
other two runners have more unknown opposition but
it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned out to be stronger
options. Considering the frame of the races the bet that
stands out may well be 3 each way doubles on these 3.

Personally I’m having a small win bet on Micky’s Knock Off

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

3/1 Il Forno, 4/1 Blue Neptune, 4/1 Magenta Strait
6/1 Bird Call, 6/1 Clear Ice, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off
16/1 Crystal Glass, 50/1 Shawkantango.

The 4pm is a 3yo Claimer over 5f and these are rare as
contests. I would rule out everything with under 4 runs
as the 26 similar winners all had 5 or more starts. There
were 5 winners absent over a month. Interesting that 4
of them were fillies and that all 5 of them had between
9 and 12 career starts and came from handicaps. I had
3 on my shortlist. Horses like Blue Neptune that came
from 5f handicaps tended to run much better last time.
I respect Il Forno but horses from 6f claimers were 0-12
so I cant pretend I wouldn’t have preferred a better stat.
MICKY’S KNOCK OFF is a positive and my selection.
He has the required experience and a recent run which
many lack. He will be tough to kick out of the three. It
may be that around 7/2 he should be a win bet. He has
speed to burn and would have won at the 5f marker in
his last race. I think he will win.

SELECTION – MICKY’S KNOCK OFF

7/2 at Ladbrokes, PaddyPower , CanBet , Bet365

Best wishes
Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC Betfred

Best Wishes

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk