Stats For Lingfield

Favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

This information was provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Hennessy Racing Tip

This fairly comprehensive Hennessy analysis was provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

AYR GOLD CUP TIP

This comes from Guy aka The Mathematician

To Visit Guys site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

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I nailed my colours to Johnny Mudball’s mast in Fridays full member message.
Quite surprised Pricewise have tipped him too today.
I’m not sure there is any value in the price now
but full members would have backed him at 11/1 and 12/1 on Friday.

Arguably with pricewise coming in today and smashing the price down a touch
I should have picked a different race for you today here on the free blog.

I did get a few emails seeking thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup however
so thought it would be the most popular race to cover here today for you.

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

Personally looking at the stats for these races
I think IRISH HEARTBEAT has a better profile than
anything in either race and I am slightly more hopeful
that he will win the Silver Cup at 2.15pm. I plan a bit
on him around 9/1 or 10/1 but low stakes in this race.

This is my friday message on the Ayr Gold Cup

AYR 3.20

William Hill (Ayr) Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

11/2 Poet’s Place, 7/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 8/1 Victoire De Lyphar 10/1 Genki, 12/1 Jonny Mudball, Redford, 14/1 Evens And Odds 16/1 Tajneed, 16/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, 16/1 Hitchens 20/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 20/1 Jimmy Styles, 20/1 Knot In Wood 20/1 Signor Peltro, 20/1 Noverre To Go, 25/1 Damien 25/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Striking Spirit, 25/1 Partner 25/1 Prime Exhibit, Barney McGrew, 33/1 Castles In The Air 33/1 Quest For Success, 33/1 Flipando, 33/1 Damika
33/1 Arganil, 33/1 Johannes

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1992
* I have used the 18 renewals of this race
* I have used 156 similar Class 2 handicaps
* These 156 races came between August and October

THE DRAW

Most are saying High. It is the safest choice. Nobody has any clue.
They were saying “High” last year yet the low numbers had it in the 3 Gold Silver and Bronze Cup races.
Even if there is a bias some belive the pace of the race matters more.
I dont have a strong view. My research is based on Handicaps only at
Ayr at this trip and I looked at every Handicap here since 2003 with 15 or more runners.
What that tells me is Stall 1 has a poor record. It also tells me horses drawn 23 or higher are 1-85 and I
would be very wary about the very high draws. Overall though I intend to ignore the draw at this stage and see what looks best.

NEGATIVES

* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR is a Negative for me
* He is 3 and has just 3 runs this year and a 50 day break
* There were 2 winners aged 3 in this race
* They both had twice as many runs this year as he does
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 1-82
* Those with 5 + runs had a 0-69 record and he has 9 runs
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 3-153
* Those absent a month with 5 + career runs were 0-50
* They say he is a Group horse. He will need to be
* Drawn 24 may not be the help some think it is
* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR doesnt come out well enough
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* They won 7 races in a 7-275 record
* None were absent more than a month
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that
* Those aged 8 or more with under 8 runs that year are 1-104
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that as well
* FLIPANDO is too old aged 9 to be dropping from 7f
* BARNEY MCGREW is all wrong aged 7 from a Group 1 race
* TAJNEED is 7 and has not run in 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile were 6-255
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-120
* TAJNEED only just fails that with 7 runs but he fails it
* Those without Group Class form were 0-86
* TAJNEED also lacks Group class form as well
* Horses aged 7 winning 2+ weeks ago were 0-18
* TAJNEED has an unsatisfactory profile
* He is a Ripon specialist and has a career high mark
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* DAMIKA is 7 and has to come from a 7f race
* There were 2 winners in 156 races doing that
* Those beaten more than 4 + lengths last time were 0-45
* He has a career high mark and this may be too much for him
* JOHANNES is underraced for a 7 year old
* Drawn one I will be shocked if he wins this
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Exposed horses absent over a month have a weak 5-297 record
* In this race these horses have a 0-60 record
* Those without Group class form were just 1-125
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails this and looks weak
* EVENS AND ODDS is exposed and absent a month
* Horses in this race with that profile were 0-60
* In 156 similar races they were 5-297 but none like him
* Those that placed 1-2-3 last time out were 0-69
* JIMMY STYLES is exposed absent over a month
* It worries me he has just 4 runs this season
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH is exposed and absent over a month
* No 4 year olds were exposed and absent as long as that
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH looks unsafe to me
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses from Group races had a 2-60 record
* None were aged 6 or more like GENKI
* Exposed horses trying this were 1-38
* None were as lightly raced this season as he is
* He is trying to do what Advanced did in 2007
* Thats to come from the Haydock Group 1 sprint
* Advanced was an unexposed 4 year old though
* I cant match GENKI to any of the 156 winners
* He has a tough weight of 9st 8lbs to overcome
* Horses in this race with 9st 7lbs or more struggled
* Those with 13 + runs and that weight were 0-58
* GENKI doesnt appeal much to me
* CASTLES IN THE AIR is exposed and from a 7f Listed race
* He looks unsafe and I cant find a winner like him
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* He has no Group form and comes from a 6f handicap
* Horses doing that within 2 weeks had a 1-85 record
* That winner ran much better than he did last time
* He also had much less weight and more runs this year
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS doesnt come out like any winners
* STRIKING SPIRIT has exactly the same profile
* I see him as weak as well
* HAWKEYETHENOO has been absent 56 days
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more like him were 11-265
* Those that were exposed were 1-110
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that as he is exposed
* The only winner managing it was older
* He had more backclass as well
* In 156 races last time winners with 13 + runs won 58 races
* None were absent 7 weeks or more like him (0-32)
* Those absent over a Month were only 1-104
* That winner was an unexposed 4 year old
* HAWKEYETHENOO doesnt look right to me
* PARISIAN PYRAMID is an exposed 4yo
* He has no form higher than Class 2 and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* In 156 races horses with that profile were 2-74
* Those like him beaten last time were 0-64
* I cant match him to any of the 156 winners
* PARTNER is difficult to read coming from Ireland
* He is an unexposed 4yo absent over a month
* There were 3 winners like that in 156 races
* Those beaten 4 + lengths with that profile were 0-34
*  PARTNER hasnt really shown enough to consider
* HITCHENS is an exposed 5 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 0-26 record
* Exposed 5 year olds that were 1-2-3 last time were 6-157
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-77
* Those with under 7 runs that season were 0-41
* HITCHENS only has 5 runs and is poor
* DAMIEN is an unexposed 4yo from a 7f handicap
* 2 of the 156 winners had that profile
* Neither of them won this race
* Neither had form in Group class before like him
* I didnt see enough I liked about him

POSSIBLES

* SIGNOR PELTRO is a 7yo
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses aged 7 or more from 6f handicaps in a month won races
* Those with No form in Group Class races were 6-141
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-62
* SIGNOR PELTRO just lacks enough runs this year
* He has a career high mark of 100 as well
* I dont think he will win but I feel he is a Possible
* ARGANIL looks shortlistable at a huge price
* He is hard to fancy admittedy
* He was only beaten 4.5 lengths in this race last year
* This year he has a better preparation and a lower mark
* ARANGIL is very similar to the 33/1 winner in 2004
* He came from well beaten in the Portland
* He also had Group form and was the same age
* ARANGIL has to be shortlisted at a big price
* His biggest problem may be his draw in stall 2
* PRIME EXHIBIT has a complicated profile
* I found 2 winners of similar races but none of this race
* 5 year olds with 13-20 runs and an absence of 7 + weeks
* I cant make him a negative so I’d shortlisting him
* REDFORD comes from an 8f race
* In 156 of these races there were 3 winners doing that
* 2 of them came in this race as well
* However they were all unexposed
* Exposed horses like REDFORD from 8f races were 0-40
* The horses from 8f races in this race were aged 3 and 4
* REDFORD is 5 and I cant match him to a winner
* With 1 run less I could so I would respect him
* POET´S PLACE is very hard to assess
* Being 5 with only 7 career starts makes him tricky to read
* Horses with that profile won 3 races
* Those with No Group class form had a 1-1 record
* That winner had less weight and a long absence
* He didnt win last time either
* 2 Portland winners have won this race
* They were both younger though confusing things more
* Overall I would play on the safe side and shortlist him
* NOVERRE TO GO comes from the Stewards Cup
* There were 2 winners of this race doing that
* Both were unexposed 4 year olds like him
* They had 10 and 11 runs and he has 16 runs
* Thats close enough for me
* Unexposed 4 year olds won this race 6 times
* 2 of the last 3 winners were unexposed 4 year olds
* With fast ground NOVERRE TO GO could go close

STRONG PROFILE

JONNY MUDBALL

* JONNY MUDBALL has a very smart profile
* JONNY MUDBALL is 4 and absent 49 days
* 4 year olds absent over a Month won 9 races
* Those with 7-12 runs like him won 5 races
* Those with Class 2 form made that a 5-14 record
* Extract those that were not beaten 4 + lengths last time
* Those that came from a 6f handicap had a 4-5 record
* Those that started under 33/1 had a 4-4 record
* Horses with his profile had a 4-4 record
* The 1996 and 2001 winners of this race had this profile
* They both came from the Stewards cup like him
* He is very similar to 1996 winner Coastal Bluff

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

The following is provided by Guy from Mathematician Betting who had a decent winner for us last weekend.

NB This is not his main bet of the day which is client only.

This is just an extra race he has examined ( one of several )

to visit Guy’s site click here == > Horse Betting

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GOODWOOD 2.25

Bluebay Handicap
(Previously Known As The Shell House Stakes)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

9/2 Bullwhip, 9/2 Desert Creek, 8/1 Hajoum, 9/1 Fathsta
9/1 Light From Mars, 10/1 Marajaa 12/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
12/1 Woodcote Place, 14/1 Coasting 14/1 Gallagher
20/1 Carnaby Street, 25/1 Elna Bright 33/1 Aspectus.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7f
* Goodwood have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 38 similar races in September

Horses aged 7 and more have struggled in these races and have a weak 1-50 record. WOODCOTE PLACE is 7 and has both a career high mark and an absence. MARAJAA is 8 and also has a career high mark and no recent race. ASPECTUS has to go as well as a 7yo with a poor last run. Exposed horses from a 6f race struggled. Those without a run in  2 weeks won nothing so FATHSTA looks opposable. Horses from 3yo handicaps have a 0-14 record in this race. Those from 3yo handicaps over 7f have a 0-29 record in the 38 similar races. BULLWHIP fails that as does CARNABY STREET. Initially it wasnt a statistic that I believed in but in 38 races there were 11 winners aged 3 and the ones that had form in Listed or Group races before had a 0-71 record. CARNABY STREET and BULLWHIP have got Group class form and that undermines their chance. I thought ELNA BRIGHT had been absent too long for an exposed horse.
COASTING comes out badly with his absence. Horses with big
weights have struggled in this race. SPIRIT OF SHARJAH looks hard to fancy with his weight and a career high mark as well as coming from the worst draw. If you take exposed horses from an 8f race you find a 3-47 record. LIGHT FROM MARS shares that profile. However none of the 3-47 winners were aged 5 so I cant match him and they all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt. None of them had more than 9st either so with 9st 9lbs and the other angles he fails I see LIGHT FROM MARS running ok but not winning. There are 3 horses I felt I could shortlist in this.

SHORTLIST

HAJOUM – 1 similar winner who was less exposed. Ground doubt.

GALLAGHER – Complicated to read but shortlistable

DESERT CREEK – 1 similar winner but not an exact match

No outstanding profiles in this race. I notice DESERT CREEK and GALLAGHER come from the best trial race at Goodwood. That race provided the winner in 1993 1994 2000 2005 2006. I think GALLAGHER has a far better chance than it looks. He is coming down the weights. When he reaches the point where his ability excedes his rating he will win. Not certain to be today but at 20/1 and more I think he is overpriced. HAJOUM has a decent chance and I suspect his chance is about handling softer ground and how much it has or has not dried out. My problem  is just how to stake the race with 3 shortlisted so I go this way

Win Bet – GALLAGHER 16/1
Win Bet – HAJOUM 10/1

Saver Bet to break level on DESERT CREEK

Current best odds available at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/

The following is from Guy over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here  == > horse betting

The Saturday before the big festival at York and that means
Great St Wilfrid day at Ripon.
This year it will be run on soft ground like most of the races today.

I have tried to sort out the Great St Wilfrid a fascinating race today.
It’s a  tough sprint so wont be easy  to get right but as the major race today
I know many of you want an opinion on it.

RIPON 3.30

William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Tajneed,  8/1 Rileyskeepingfaith 8/1 Tiddliwinks
12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Midnight Martini
14/1 Signor Peltro  16/1 Advanced, 16/1 Johannes
16/1 Knot In Wood 16/1 Lowdown, 16/1 Pavershooz
16/1 Quest For Success 20/1 Damika, 20/1 Fullandby
25/1 Novellen Lad 40/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Great St Wilfred is a 0-105 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 18 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar Class 2 handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time were 0-67
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more are interesting
* I looked at 57 similar handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths had a poor 4-365 record
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year doing that were 0-111
* JOHANNES – KNOT IN WOOD fail that
* HITCHENS -NOVELLEN LAD  also fail that
* Those beaten that far over 7f or more last time were 0-61
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more aged 3 are 0-37
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Unexposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 1-119
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Horses from 5f races has a 3-74 record
* None managed without a very recent run
* Horses from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-28
* FAVOURITE GIRL fails that
* No filly came from a 5f like her anyway
* In 56 other races fillies from 5f races were 0-31
* PAVERSHOOZ also fails that
* In 56 other races horses from 5f needed a recent run
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 2-109
* Those with 13 or more runs were 0-92
* PAVERSHOOZ fails that
* Exposed horses won 9 of the 18 renewals
* Those exposed and aged 5 were 0-76
* PAVERSHOOZ -NOVELLEN LAD fail that
* HITCHENS is also an exposed 5yo (0-76)
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* I see him having the worst draw as well
* Those exposed and carrying 8st 11lbs or less were 1-125
* FULLANDBY -NOVELLEN LAD -  PAVERSHOOZ fail that
* Exposed horses aged 8 or more won 1 renewal
* That horse had past Group form and 9 + runs this season
* He also ran within 7 days
* FULLANDBY looks underaced for an 8yo
* KNOT IN WOOD looks underaced for an 8yo
* I looked at 56 similar handicaps
* Exposed horses aged 8 were 3-101
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-65
* That reinforces negatives for FULLANDBY – KNOT IN WOOD
* Exposed horses from 6f handicaps were 5-153 in this race
* None of these were aged 4 (0-25) or 5 (0-46)
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH fails that aged 4
* No past winner came from an 8f race
* None did it in any of the 56 other races
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* 3 year olds won 2 races but none were Male
* 3yo Males are 0-28 in this race
* LOWDOWN fails that
* I looked at 3yo males in 56 other races
* They had a 1-93 record
* Those 3yo Males with 9 + runs were 0-64
* LOWDOWN looks opposable on that front
* 3 year olds with under 13 runs were 0-25 in this race
* MIDNIGHT MARTINI fails that
* In 56 other races 3yo fillies with under 13 runs were 1-17
* That winner was slightly different coming from a 3yo handicap
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out though
* Horses aged 7 or more had a 3-73 record
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 0-33
* I looked at 56 similar races for 7 year olds
* Horses aged 7 and older were 7-213
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 2-196
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* JOHANNES fails that and has just 4 runs
* ADVANCED  fails that and has just 4 runs
* TAJNEED  fails that and has just 4 runs

SHORTLIST

* MIDNIGHT MARTINI is just shortlistable
* DAMIKA is 7 years old but shortlistable
* He has a recent run and is fit enough with backclass
* TIDDLIWINKS is an unexposed 4 year olds
* 4 year olds with 13-20 runs and a run in 2 weeks did well
* Those beaten under 3 lengths were 3-8
* Those from 6f handicaps are 2-6
* These 3 horses all have that profile
* TIDDLIWINKS has that profile

THE DRAW

* Since 2006 Ripon has 23 of these races with 13 + runners
* The recent winners came from these stalls
* 6 13 15 10 15 11 11 14 11 10 5 11 12 22 15 4 3 12 6 15
* Horses draw 1-2 had a 0-46 record
* Horses drawn 16 or more had a 1-55 record
* That clearly shows a middle draw is best

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DAMIKA 20/1 looks overpriced and underestimated
( now best priced 18/1 CanBet VC Bet365 )

TIDDLIWINKS 10/1  Bet365 Ladbrokes Skybet

For best current odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-14/ripon/15-30/betting/

I think Tiddliwinks  has the outstanding profile. He made massive
improvement on the sand a year ago which has left him
well handicapped on Grass. He hasnt won yet on turf but
I dont see that as important as his last 2 runs show there
is serious ability on Grass. His last 3 runs were interesting.
He wont have been fit at York in July.
He did nothing at all wrong at York in the Skybet Dash when 4th
when he still might have needed the run.
Last time at Goodwood he had a horrible draw and still managed a creditable 4th.
The ground is an issue as he is not proven on soft ground but he has not
shown he doesnt handle it.
His Dam won on soft and placed on Heavy.
His father won on softer ground and has bred many that have done as well.
I’d risk it as I dont see a better profile in this race.

Some thoughts on Newmarket 2.05 today from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

==========================

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including Betfred, Bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Guy

A look at the Stewards Cup at Goodwood from Guy over at mathematician -betting.

To visit Guys site click here  ===> UK  Horse Racing Tips

G O O D W O O D

It is not so Glorious today as the meeting shows its teeth and the full force of its bite today with a Savaging card.
I have no choice but to try and do the Stewards Cup today as that’s high on everybodys list of races to
Bet in but I wont be spending a great deal of time of this card today as its pretty ferocious.

The 2.30pm is Listed race for 3 year olds over a Mile and it’s got a long history.
I thought it was intersting horses coming from 3yo handicaps were 0-24.
FREEFORADAY looks one to avoid doing that. TREADWELL comes
from an all aged  handicaps and the 2 winners doing that were less exposed
and had a more recent run. LONG LASHES is a debutant and there were
2 debutants but they were Males with 2 runs and she is a female with 4 runs.
FIELD OF DREAMS has a chance and I’d see both these as a little unsafe
but possible winners. I respect CRITICAL MOMENTS who should run well.
Unclear as yet whether yesterdays handicap winner SEA LORD will run again
and if he does he has to be respected with yesterdays run sure to either improve his chance of kill it.
The one that interested  me most was DESERT MYTH as many winners dropped down
from 10f Conditions races and they were all very lightly raced  and a stable
with a good record in this I like DESERT MYTH

GOODWOOD 3.40

Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

8/1 Genki, 9/1 Enact, 9/1 Palace Moon, 10/1 Jonny Mudball
12/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, Noverre To Go, 14/1 Striking Spirit 16/1 Johannes,
16/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 16/1 Parisian Pyramid 16/1 Secret Asset,
20/1 Castles In The Air, 25/1 Hitchens,  25/1 Jimmy Styles, 25/1 Knot In Wood,
33/1 Evens And Odds 33/1 Ingleby Lady, 33/1 Prohibit, 33/1 Run For The Hills 33/1
Sir Gerry, 40/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 40/1 Prime Exhibit 40/1 Singeur, 50/1 Advanced,
Ancien Regime, 50/1 Edge Closer 50/1 Sonny Red, 66/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Stewards Cup in a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* There has been 19 renewals since 1991
* Exposed horses won 5 of the 19 renewals
* Those with under 6 runs that year were 1-117
* Those aged 4 were 1-59 and he had Group 3 class form
* Those exposed with form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 were 0-71
* Those exposed absent over a month were 0-59
* Those exposed from a 5f race were just 1-125
* Those exposed with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-46
* Horses from 5f struggle but only 1 runner does that today
* Horses aged 6 or more have a  2-182 record in this race
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-92
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-125
* Those that came from 6f or shorter were 0-162
* Horses aged 3 have a poor 1-68 record in this race
* Horses aged 3 with 9 + career runs were 0-48
* Horses that come from conditions races struggle
* They have a 1-100 record in this race
* Horses that come from Listed or Group class are 0-67
* Horses that lost by 6 or more lengths last time were 2-165
* None of these were absent over a Month or came from 7f
* None of these had 1-2-3-4-5 runs this season (0-84)
* Fillies have a 1-61 record in this race
* That was a 4yo with under 7 runs and 3 runs that year

POSSIBLES

NOVERRE TO GO – Has an acceptable profile
JONNY MUDBALL – Just enough to shortlist
PALACE MOON – Reasonable chance

SELECTION

STRIKING SPIRIT

The 3 Possibles above have decent chances but none of them
are quite right statistically and have minor flaws. Whilst I can say the same
about STRIKING SPIRIT he is a whisker away from being perfect and
I think he has as good a chance to win this as any. He was only beaten
6 lengths in last years race on ground too soft when he went off too fast
and I think he was badly drawn last year.
This year he has proved himself to be  a Top notch sprint handicapper.
He’d be my choice at 16/1.

16/1 paying out on 5 places available at Bet365 and Stan James

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

A few thoughts for Ascot today from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED – MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power Bet365 VC * more

Haydock Free Horse Racing Tip

In Yesterday’s main member message I didn’t suggest a stand out bet and decided to let the message stand or fall on the previews.
The mail had 10 previews and we came back with 5 winners
including a 16/1 winner and plenty of places as well.
It shows I am reading things well at the moment and have
the right level of confidence and momentum.

A ridiculous ammount of racing today. The main message for full members
has comments in 20 seperate races today so plenty to read.
Some are full detailed previews and others
just notes and little more.

Here on the free blog I am posting up one of the races covered.

Join the full service at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
and you can read the other races covered in our full member area.
****************************************************

HAYDOCK 2.50

Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)1m3f200y

9/2 Barshiba, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Grace O´malley
7/1 Les Fazzani,  8/1 Lady Jane Digby 9/1 Tinaar
10/1 Rosika, 14/1 Champagnelifestyle 25/1 Cassique Lady
25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 40/1 Najam.

* The Lancashire Oaks has 19 renewals since 1991
* This is a Group race over 11.5f for fillies
* The race may have changed since 2004
* Before then horses with 9 or more starts were 0-21
* Since 2004 we have had 3 winners with 9 or more runs
* I dont mind these horses as long as they match previous winners
*  NAJAM  won a 3yo maiden last time out like 4 past winners
* None however had 4 + runs like her
* None like her had 2 + runs that season
* NAJAM took 4 runs to win a maiden and thats not good enough
* TINAAR has just been beaten in a Hamilton Handicap
* None of the last 19 winners came from Handicaps
* TINAAR has never been in Listed or Group Class before
* Only 3 past winners could say that and all had under 4 runs
* TINAAR has 9 and may well lack the class
* No 4 year old won this with just 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner did officially but had 3 Hurdle races as well
* I think 1 run this year will leave a 4yo short
* ROSIKA fails that and has no form in Group class
* I dont fancy her winning this with just 1 run
* FLAME OF GIBRALTAR is rejected for similar reasons
* She is also a 4yo with 1 run this year
* She was well beaten last time as well
* There were only 2 winners aged 5 or more
* Both ran within a month and had 2-3 runs this season
* CLOWANCE is 5 and has just 1 run this season
* She also has a 77 day absence to overcome
* That would trouble me that no similar horse won
* Both winning horses aged 5 or more had Grade 1 form
* CASSIQUE LADY is 5 and does not have that
* They both came from higher class races than she does
* CASSIQUE LADY looks a grade below what is required
* BARSHIBA won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and no past winner was that age
* Last year she was beaten 7 lengths at Ascot with 3 prep runs
* This year she was beaten 9 lengths at Ascot with 2 prep runs
* Not convinced that will be enough for her
* Only 2 past winners came From Royal Ascot
* Both had 3 + runs that season
* Thats my only concern alongside her age
* I am not shortlisting her because of that
* LADY JANE DIGBY doesnt interest me
* There were 5 winners that came from 10f or shorter
* They were all 3 year olds and lightly raced
* LADY JANE DIGBY is exposed and aged 5 doing that
* Because of that I feel she is the wrong type
* LES FAZZANI is 6 older than all past winners since 2001
* With 23 runs he is the joint most exposed runner
* You can argue all her turf wins came on soft ground
* If the ground was not fast I would respect her
* She is still older than any past winner though
* Because of that I dont want to select her

SHORTLIST

POLLYS MARK
GRACE O´MALLEY
CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE

* CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE is 3 and comes from the Oaks
* Horses doing that with 2 runs this season like here were 2-5
* They both had 3 career starts and she has 4 runs
* Thats the only thing different from her profile
* She was backed for this last Wednesday
* I think she has a reasonably good chance of a surprise
* POLLYS MARK is 4 and has had 13 career starts
* Horses aged 4 won 6 races but only 1 had 9 or more starts
* The record of 4 year olds with 9 + runs is 1-26 (Pongee 2004)
* However that 4yo winner (Pongee) had 2 runs that year like her
* She also came from the same race the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock
* That puts POLLYS MARK firmly in the picture
* She didnt win at Haydock unlike the 2004 winner
* She was beaten in a photo and thats good enough for me
* You would like the stable in better form though
* GRACE O´MALLEY is a Positive
* Hard to read and from Ireland but no obvious flaws
* In form and thriving now she is in foal

SELECTION

GRACE O´MALLEY 6/1 Each Way

If the 3 year old (Champagnelifestyle) pops up I wont
be surprised but I have 3 on the shortlist and can not go
with all of them. I am going with GRACE O´MALLEY
because she is in Foal and has already won recently when
in Foal and hopefully she can carry that forward to win.

GRACE O´MALLEY 7/1 Each Way

(Polly’s Mark an optional Saver)

NB 7/1 was available earlier when this was given to full members

now best priced 13/2 at VC Stan James Tote

Ten previews today for full members.
Impossible to go throughit all with so many
meetings and as ever it’s theusual Saturday balancing
act of trying to offer a balanced message with potential
bets withoutkilling the chances through looking at too much.

This feels like a tough Saturday to me. Plenty of
the big field Saturday television handicaps today.
Statistically the strongest profiles in these races
have non – statistical problems with the likes of
Our Joe Mac and Ziggy Lee in the 2.30 and 3.40
races having outstanding profiles but issues to
overcome with the ground and the draw. I don’t
see either as safe enough to go with as a bet. I’d
not see this as a message to follow all the way to
the end as the races are too difficult and there is
a limit to how many winners we can have today.

Would have liked a strong bet on a Saturday but
if there is not one so be it. I think the race that I’d
be best to advise to bet in would be the Haydock
Mile handicap at 4.40pm. I think I have the correct
mix of negatives prices and profiles in the race and
I want to use this race to try and get a winner for
full members.

They quite rightfully complain however if the strongest bets
go up here on the free blog so I have selected another race
from the main message here today.

CHESTER 5.10

Lambrini Original Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m2f75y

7/2 Norwegian Dancer, 7/2 Prince Of Johanne
9/2 Bullet Man 6/1 I´m In The Pink, 10/1 Kidlat
10/1 Paquerettza, 20/1 Geneva Geyser, 25/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Bagutta Sun.

This is a 10f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. We have 145
similar races at this time of year. I think KIDLAT looks to
have too much to do well beaten just 2 days ago. Horses
beaten more than 10 lengths with just 1 run this season
had a miserable record. Those like GENEVA GEYSER that
dropped in trip were 0-50 and he looks weak. Another to
fall foul of that stat is DRAGON SLAYER too old for me
to overcome such a defeat. I’d oppose BAGUTTA SUN
from a 7f race. Only 2 of the 145 winners did that but its
relevant none were fillies and none as inexperienced as
she is. PRINCE OF JOHANNE has a complicated profile.
I looked at all 4 year olds like him with 7-12 runs who are
running within the last fortnight and found a poor 1-39
record. I can improve that record if I look at horses that
ran 2-4 weeks away but none were 1st or 2nd last time
and most had less weight. I think he is a borderline case
for shortlisting as he is complicated. What I dont like is
his Draw in stall 1. At this trip thats not the best draw
as very low drawn horses can often get cut off at what
is a very quick first bend. Overall I felt he was never a
horse I would select so I leave him off the shortlist. It’s
hard to rule out I´M IN THE PINK but I was not happy
with a horse without any backclass coming down from
a 12f race and found a weak profile. As it is already a
heavy shortlist as it is such an open race I am leaving
I´M IN THE PINK off it as there are better profiles.

SHORTLIST

NORWEGIAN DANCER has a good profile and from all
4 year olds winning with 1 run that season he comes out
as quite similar to those so is a positive. I have found 1
similar winner to PAQUERETTZA. Not a prolific profile
but it gets her shortlisted. No reason why BULLET MAN
cant win this race. 3 shortlisted. Open race. Tight Decision.

SELECTION

BULLET MAN each way
5/1 PaddyPower Ladbrokes Betfred blue sq Stan James

Guy Ward

For More info on Guys advisory service

click here   ===> Betting Advice