Some thoughts on Sandown today from Guy over at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
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I have a full Account Bet today in the 4pm race at Ripon
for full members.
Here in the free blog today I thought I would put up a few quick thoughts
on Sandown however.
S A N D O W N
Want to deal with Sandown first as its not a great card
from my point of view mixing hurdles and flat races with
many big fields and trial races. Only want to skip over it.
The opening Handicap at 1pm has 7 renewals. This race
is for Jump and Flat Jockeys and it’s the only race of its
kind at this time of year so angles are thin on the ground.
The worst age group so far has been 4 year olds and I’d
predict an older runner will win. I am happy to oppose a
4yo from a 3yo handicap like Directorship -Kiss A Prince
and Aurora Sky and one from a maiden like Night Lily. I’d
oppose4 year olds like Sapphire Prince and Mr Udagawa
and Best In Class who were all well beaten last time. I am
against any 4yo like Black N Brew with an absence. The
other 4yo Striding Edge is also opposed. Carlitos Spirit
was beaten too far recently. I’d avoid Halsion Chancer
coming from a 6f race. I would shortlist 2 here. Normally
TWILIGHT STAR would have been chucked out with a
profile like his but he won this last year so he gets some
dispensation. MILLFIELDS DREAMS would be my best
hope in the race.
I thought the Listed race Hurdle at 1.30 was priced up
about right. All past winners were aged 5-6-7 with them
all having at least 4 runs that season and previous form
in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 class. Only two horses have
that profile in ASHKAZAR and PETIT ROBIN. There is
no point doing the next race as it’s ridiculous.
The Celebration Chase at 2.30 throws up a big problem
in what to do with TWIST MAGIC the favourite. He is
easily the best horse in the race and won the race last
year as well but just 4 days ago he refused to race and
that is a problem. That was in Ireland as well so he has
travelled there and back in a few days as well. I would
not want FIX THE RIB from a hurdle. Statistically there
is a poor record with horses from handicaps when they
drop in trip so I´M SO LUCKY and CHANINBAR lack
the profile of all past winners. OISEAU DE NUIT may
be the best option at the prices. His chance like all the
others may depend on whether TWIST MAGIC starts
or runs his race. TWIST MAGIC is the most likely one
but at the prices I like OISEAU DE NUIT each way.
SANDOWN 3.05
Bet365 Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m5f110y
7/1 Fairoak Lad, 7/1 Just Amazing, 8/1 The Package,
10/1 Kilcrea Castle, 12/1 Lacdoudal, 12/1 Nostringsattached
14/1 Air Force One, 14/1 Hello Bud, 14/1 Hoo La Baloo
14/1 Tamarinbleu, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 20/1 Church Island
20/1 Monkerhostin, 25/1 Alderburn, 25/1 Irish Raptor
28/1 My Will, 33/1 Killyglen, 33/1 Martys Mission 33/1 Nozic, 33/1 Piraya.
The 3.05pm Bet365 Gold Cup is a Grade 3 Handicap over
3m 5f. Tough sort of race. The horses that I think will not
be Fit enough are MONKERHOSTIN – AIR FORCE ONE
NOZIC – LOTHIAN FALCON – IRISH RAPTOR. There’s
a poor record horses of horses aged 10 or more (1-71) so
ALDERBURN -LACDOUDAL – CHURCH ISLAND look
weak as 11 year olds. HELLO BUD is 12 and ran far too
well in the Grand National and surely wont recover. Its
asking too much for an exposed horse to defy a lengthy
absence so HOO LA BALOO is out. MARTYS MISSION
is up too far in trip. I’m uncomfortable JUST AMAZING
comes from a Novice Chase and also lacks any form in a
Graded race something 15 of the last 17 winners had. For
the same reason NOSTRINGSATTACHED is opposed.
TAMARINBLEU comes out badly with his absence. Its
asking too much of PIRAYA. The only 7 year olds that
won this were in form and placed last time and he didnt
and thats why he is opposed and THE PACKAGE has
similar problems and I don’t fancy him. KILLYGLEN did
not run well enough last week. MY WILL doesnt make
any appeal. I would shortlist two. KILCREA CASTLE
and FAIROAK LAD both unexposed look strongest.
SELECTION – FAIROAK LAD
SAVER – KILCREA CASTLE
The Bet 365 Mile at 3.40pm is a high class Group 2 race.
Its a messy race statistically as 5 runners have had their
latest runs Abroad and no horse comes from the strong
trial race (Earl of Sefton) this year. PRINCE OF DANCE
and THE CHEKA look too inexperienced. No horse has
come from handicaps like FAREER. The last 22 winners
were all younger than PRESSING. One of the interesting
angles in this race is that horses aged 5 or more that are
running first time out are 0-44 in this race. It was only 4
year olds that won this on their seasonal debuts. If you
look at all seasonal debutants none won with 13 or more
starts so BEACON LODGE and PACO BOY the shortest
priced horse have that to overcome. For me the strongest
3 are BORDER PATROL – CONFRONT – CAT JUNIOR. I
would look to one of these. The best bet given the going
may well be CONFRONT each way.
SANDOWN 4.15
Bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f7y
11/4 Crowded House, 7/2 Glass Harmonium, 4/1 Tranquil Tiger,
9/2 Laaheb, 13/2 Steele Tango, 12/1 Soul City, 16/1 Redwood.
The Gordon Richards Stakes (4.15pm) is unpleasant as
just 7 runners take place. None of the past winners of
this race were as inexperienced as REDWOOD and not
one was as exposed as TRANQUIL TIGER. All the 4yo
seasonal debutant winners had Group class form in the
past and LAAHEB does not. Horses that had a recent
run and 13 or more career starts were 0-23 and that mix
is something STEELE TANGO has to overcome. I dont
like SOUL CITY much and doubt his stamina as well at
10f. Given a choice CROWDED HOUSE has to make it
to the shortlist as does GLASS HARMONIUM. Tough
to split them but CROWDED HOUSE appeals more.
The 4.50 is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile. Statistically
its a race that’s been messed about with over the years.
MUJOOD is out from a 6f race. SWIFT CHAP had some
problems up in trip. I don’t fancy DUNN’O. I dislike him
as he has 1 run this year and comes up in distance. The
52 similar races show 3 winners managing that but none
were exposed like him none were aged 5 or more as he is
and although DUNN’O won this last year it was with less
weight he wasnt exposed or up in distance. I am not too
keen on GENERAL ELIOTT from novice hurdles. I tried
to find winners like TARTAN GIGHA down from 10f in
the last few weeks but I couldnt match a strong enough
profile and MOUNT HADLEY also has that problem. It
bothers me CHAPTER AND VERSE has been sold and
downgraded stables late last season. That only leaves
MABAIT and although I think he’s plenty short enough
I can understand why he is a warm favourite.