Racing Tip For Lingfield from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

LINGFIELD has been abandoned and with it any realistic
chance of a bet today. That leaves us with only Southwell
and a small card of 6 races and very little choice today as
the weather has beaten every other meeting on the day.

Many of you will want a bet. Many will want to leave the
day alone and get some other things done. There is not an offical
bet today.

I have looked at all 6 Southwell races for Full Members
and have one up here on the free betting blog.
I will  leave it up to you whether you want to get involved. I
dont want to bother myself especially as non runners now
seem certain to damage most of these races presumably as
many stables are having travel problems.

I dont see why I shouldnt have a good chance in the 12.30
and 1.00pm races much as these are smaller fields. The big
factor in the 1.35pm is whether I can beat the favourite so
hard to know what my chances are there. The 2.05pm has
now been reduced to 7 runners and thats typical as I’d argue
possibly my most interesting bet was JOHANNESGRAY as
an each way bet around 5/1. Thats lost now but I still think he
is as good a bet as any on the day. I like my 2.40pm bet but
so do others and the price could have been better.
The last race has got under my skin and I am far from certain
I have got that right. Both non runners were big negatives so
things have conspired against me there and I feel week here.

Those that want several bets just follow the message through to
the end with small stakes. Those wanting one bet perhaps a win
bet on JOHANNESGRAY offers the best option as he is a
reasonably good price. Those wanting a day off wont be
missing anything and I wouldnt blame you for sweving things.

SOUTHWELL 2.05

Toteswinger Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

11/4 Bonnie Prince Blue, 7/2 Silaah, 5/1 Dark Lane
5/1 Everymanforhimself, 7/1 Johannesgray
12/1 Yankee Storm, 14/1 Italian Tom, 16/1 Silver Wind.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* There are 101 similar races at this time of year

ITALIAN TOM has a better profile than you might think
as a 3yo from a 5f race but the only winner winning his age
had more backclass and he has all his wins at 5f and now has
a career high mark and he looks unsafe. SILVER WIND isn’t
running well enough at the moment and does not offer me enough
considering he has no Southwell form. I would have to take on
BONNIE PRINCE BLUE. Not a big negative at
all but there are better profiles. EVERYMANFORHIMSELF
is also avoided as no similar horse came from claimers and
he has no Southwell form. That is a very weak list of horses to avoid
and that tells me despite the small field its far too  open a race to take
a confident view in.

POSSIBLES

SILAAH is hard to read as an older horse coming from a 5f
handicap a few days ago. I ran his profile carefully and found all horses
with very close profiles had a 1-4 record with that winner having much
less weight. He is hard to decide about. The issue with DARK LANE
is that he has only had 2 runs this season. To my surprise I did find a 4yo
winner like him so I’d make him a Positive much as it doesnt feel ideal and
I should mention his draw. There has been 46 handicaps here this year
and only 1 winner came from stall 1 and its not an ideal draw.
JOHANNESGRAY can’t be ruled out and I found 1 similar 3 year
old winner coming from a 5f race. There is a chance YANKEE STORM
could win this as I have found  two similar winners. He has had many
chances to win here off similar marks but has failed. His only wins here
were in two grades lower and off lower marks so he might just find one
or two better treated at the weights these days. I have 4 shortlisted and
given the choice  JOHANNESGRAY looks the best option with less
to prove and more improvement.

Selection -  JOHANNESGRAY 5/1 VC

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