This comes from Guy over at the Mathematician Service.

To visit Guy’s site click here == > Betting Advice

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H u n t i n g d o n  2.20

15/8 Getmeouthedoldrums, 2/1 Spring Moon
5/1 Call At Midnight, 13/2 Breaking Silence
10/1 Moon Melody, 12/1 Kercabellec.

* This is a Handicap  Chase over 3m 6f +
* There are 43 similar races at this time of year
* GETMEOUTHEDOLDRUMS has just 2 runs
* Both came over hurdles and none over fences
* Asking a lot to win this on his Chase debut
* I looked at every long distance chase like this
* Thats every Chase at 3m 5f and more in November
* I looked at how many Chase starts every winner had
* The following is how many Chase starts they had
* 10 4 14 12 9 6 17 17 2 13 7 15 21 14 23 6 2 11 6 9 15
* 31 7 0 11 9 8 5 23 16 6 32 3 12 12 5 9 5 14 4 8 7 6
* The odd winner did win when very inexperienced
* I think GETMEOUTHEDOLDRUMS is vulnerable
* KERCABELLEC is older than all winners
* CALL AT MIDNIGHT is unsafe as a Mare
* Only 1 piece of Chase form you can like her on
* I think she is quite riSky off topweight
* MOON MELODY – Has to be vulnerable
* He is out of the weights and comes from hurdles
* BREAKING SILENCE has a definate chance
* I find him just about acceptable
* He does have to prove he stays though
* The Sires only had 1 winner over this far
* That was in a tiny field when half of them fell
* SPRING MOON has 6 runs and just 3 Chase starts
* He comes from a Beginners Chase over 3m
* I think its a better profile than Getmeouthedoldrums
* I dont have a problem with him
* SPRING MOON is a positive
* I think he is easily the safest profile here

Selection – SPRING MOON

5/2 at SpreadExLadbrokesBet365

PS Out of interest Guy’s site has an interesting private forum where clients can share extra information.  Members there include several who own their own horses. An extra little snippet from one who was at the stable this morning is below.

I was up at Martin Keighley’s place this morning and saw Spring Moon going off in his little box. Martin thinks he has a good chance. So backs up Guy view.

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