Some Race Analysis from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Visually a superb day’s racing. There seems to be a lot of
really big priced horses in today’s message for full members
including a full Account Bet at 10/1 ish.

Here on the free blog however we have just the one race for you.

Not as strong in my opinon as the full member Account Bet
but an interesting runner at a good price.

NB If you abit more serious about your racing I suggest you join as a full member http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

You will get the full message not just one race snippets and all through the week not just on a Saturday. All historic messages are availalbe for you to view.  Also take a nose around the private forums to see what other racing brains are coming up with or have spotted. There is a no quibble refund guarantee to protect you if youdecide its not your personal cup of tea.

Anyhow  on to today..

WARWICK 2.50

Bet Totepool To Support Your Sport
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-120) 3m1f

11/4 Sonny Mullen, 4/1 Winterwood, 5/1 Kristoffersen,
6/1 Oscar Prairie, 10/1 Merigo, 14/1 Mealagh Valley
16/1 Quelqu´un Comme Toi, 16/1 Radmores Revenge
16/1 Very Cool, 20/1 Inghwung, 25/1 Honour High.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f
* Febuary has seen 89 similar handicaps
* There’s been 288 similar races between January-March
* SONNY MULLEN comes from 17f and has 4 runs
* I looked at 288 similar races over a 3 month period
* 9 of  the 288 winners came from 17f or shorter
* None had under 5 career starts like SONNY MULLEN
* Horses from any Novice race over 16f-17f were 0-38
* SONNY MULLEN also fails that
* Horses from 17f or less with over 11st were just 1-61
* SONNY MULLEN fails that as well
* Throw in an absence and he looks vulnerable to me
* Horses with 1 run this season concern me
* Especially when having 9 or more runs
* Especially when having no backclass
* RADMORES REVENGE doesnt look fit and fails that
* INGHWUNG is a mare with 1 run that year
* HONOUR HIGH also looks weak with one run
* MERIGO is thrown in on his hurdles form
* Rated 130 over fences he is running here off 110
* That makes him very interesting
* However there are some concerns
* Hard to know if he can translate his form to hurdles
* Hard to know if he is anywhere near fit
* It surely looks a prep race for a long distance chase
* MERIGO is 9 with 1 race that season
* He has no form in Listed or Graded races either
* Look at all 9 year olds with 1 race that season
* Look at the ones with no form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-67
* MERIGO has an unfit profile statistically
* MEALAGH VALLEY has a poor profile absent 688 days
* I dont see him overcoming that with just 4 runs
* OSCAR PRAIRIE is 5 and from a Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 288 similar races for horses doing that
* When coming from 2m 6f or shorter they were 0-22
* No 5yo like OSCAR PRAIRIE won any of these races
* Not coming from a Novice Hurdle short of 3 miles
* KRISTOFFERSEN doesnt make much appeal
* He is an exposed 10 year old with no Graded Class
* Only 5 of the 288 winners could say that
* None were absent over a month like him (0-64)
* None had under 4 runs that season like him
* He has a weak profile and the ground looks wrong
* All his wins have come on better ground than this

SHORTLIST

WINTERWOOD  7/2
VERY COOL  8/1
QUELQU´UN COMME TOI  16/1

WINTERWOOD is hard to judge. Lightly raced horse.
Most runs in Ireland. I dont think he has an impressive
profile. I looked at all horses like him with 7-12 runs and
an absence of 7 weeks or more.  You only find a few of
them won and the vast majority had less weight than he
does. I have shortlisted him but I’m not sold on his chance.

* VERY COOL could also go well off topweight
* He only has a 0-120 class race to win
* He has placed 2nd in a 0-140 handicap before
* He isnt exposed which has to help
* If he recaptures his form after a break he could win
* He stays and acts on the ground
* Statistically he has work to do
* I would want more runs this year or a recent run

SELECTION

QUELQU´UN COMME TOI

This horse is a mystery. There is limited evidence to know
how good he is or what type of horse he is. I think he is a
horse that will either win or come nowhere. I love his profile though.
His jockey (Aidan Coleman) was intereviewed the other day about his
beat chance of a winner today. He said it was his outsider in the 3.55pm at 33/1 (Spit).
If he is being honest and knows a lot about both horses than we are in a bit of bother.
Then again he could have no knowledge that the horse is ok and it doesnt pay to listen to them anyway.

* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI has the following profile
* Horses with 5-6 career runs
* Horses aged 6
* Handicap Hurdle last time out
* No form in Graded races
* Horses with that profile were 10-40
* Those running in Febuary had a 6-9 record
* Those like him beaten 16 + lengths last time were 4-9
* Those like him beaten 32 + lengths were 2-3
* Would have been happier if he had won a race before
* That said he has an interesting profile
* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI could well be a Player

14/1 at BoyleSports Betfred Tote

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