Another great 7/1 winner here from Guy last weekend.

Here is is message for Today
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A nice winner for us last week with Expense Claim winning at 7/1

Thanks for the email in.
Always appreciated to hear about you taking a few £ of the bookmakers.

On to today.

Haydock 2.30 – FROG HOLLOW

I think he will win. The problem is he was 7/1 Thursday
and bits of 8/1. Since then we have had Pricewise tip him
and 2 fancied non runners. I couldn’t have done him ante
post as there were not enough firms pricing this race up.
Now I am left with the dilemma of deciding whether to
tip him at a much shorter 7/2 or to leave him alone. It
is so hard to make him a bet when he is best priced 7/2.

I had intended him as a full member tip today.
But have downgraded him from that due to available odds.

I will give my thoughts on him here to you free blog readers however.

I have selected a different horse today for the full member bet.
My comment on him relative to Frog Hollow was that he
“is almost twice the price yet had half as many runners to beat”

Available in the full member area now.
Join for immediate access at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

H a y d o c k 2.30

Live Odds At

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-26/haydock-park/14-30/betting/

* The Silver Bowl is a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There are 18 renewals of this race
* There are 46 similar races in May and June
* You want a lightly raced male horse thats in form
* Since 2010 there has been 24 Handicaps here at 8f
* Thats 24 Handicaps with 11 or more runners
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 had a 0-46 record
* Recent winners had the following draws
* 8 9 12 6 3 5 11 15 6 10 12 10 10 8 8 10 4 17 4
* Horses Drawn 1-2 have the worst record
* GABRIAL is Drawn 2 and thats a worry
* Strongly fancied – I will deal with him later on
* Experienced horses do not take this race
* Past winners had the following career starts
* 5 4 3 3 8 6 3 4 3 3 3 8 34
* Only 1 of the last 23 winners had 9 + runs
* HAZAZ is not the right type with 9 runs and from 12f
* None of the 46 winners dropped from a 12f race
* LORD OFTHE SHADOWS – too exposed with 10 runs
* Especially coming from a 7f race
* Look at horses that come from 7f or shorter
* Several wom from 7f with 2-3-4 career starts
* Those coming from 7f with 5 + runs had a 1-86 record
* TIDENTIME fails that and has the worst draw
* APOSTLE fails that coming from 7f with 7 runs
* Seasonal debutants have struggled
* Only 1 of the Silver Bowl winners was a debutant
* There were 4 seasonal debutant winners in 46 races
* They all had 2-3 previous races
* Those with 4 or more career starts were 0-30
* WISE VENTURE fails that and is too exposed
* Fillies have not done as well as males
* I looked at fillies coming up in distance
* None ran over 7f or shorter this season
* ABISHENA fails that and doesnt offer enough
* NEMUSHKA is a filly and well beaten last time
* No fillies were beaten as far as she was last time
* MABAANY has a lot to prove first time out
* I cant make him a negative but none are like him
* No winners came from an ordinary 2yo conditions race
* LUCKY HENRY comes from a 7f handicap
* He was beaten further than every 7f runner last time
* SWITZERLAND has been busier than every past winner
* None had more than 4 runs this year he has 6 runs
* SWITZERLAND doesnt come out well enough
* FOREST ROW won an 8f maiden last time
* I ran his profile with 3 runs and 1 this season
* No horse has won this race with his profile
* I found one elsewhere who had more backclass
* FOREST ROW will probably fall short here
* GABRIAL is Drawn 2 and thats a worry
* GABRIAL is from an 8f handicap with 2 runs this year
* I ran that profile and found a couple of winners
* They had 3-4 runs and he has 5 runs
* That means GABRIAL cant be matched exactly
* The arguments against him are these
* He cant be matched exactly
* He has one of the worst two draws
* I looked at his Sires record at 8f and more
* Its fine but none have won above Class 3 yet
* GABRIAL comes from a Class 2 race at Chester
* I looked at horses that came from that race
* When running in this race they had a 0-24 record
* The Chester race he comes from isnt a good trial
* I am not finding enough to overlook the draw
* TRAIL BLAZE comes from an 8f handicap
* He has more than 6 career starts
* I looked at horses from 8f handicaps with 5-6 runs
* The 2006 and 2011 winners of this race had that profile
* Both had 1 run this season
* TRAIL BLAZE has 2 runs so is not an identical match
* Both had Class 2 form before and he doesnt
* Neither of them won last time and he did
* I looked at horses winning 8f handicaps
* Those that won again all had 3 + runs this year
* TRAIL BLAZE is almost right but not quite
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Statistically fails after his last run
* I thought he was one of the better outsiders

P o s s i b l e s

* GREY MIRAGE is drawn 17
* I dont see that as a positive draw
* He won an 8f handicap last time out
* He has 2 runs this year and 4 career starts
* I cant match him exactly but he is almost right
* His chance is down to what Stall 17 does for him
* Very few horses have been drawn 17 over C + D
* None have won though in the last 12 years
* I shortlist him but fear the draw has the biggest say

* FROG HOLLOW comes from an 8f handicap
* He has just 1 run this season and 5 career starts
* There are a few winners of this race quite like him
* The following winners all came from 8f handicaps
* They were all beaten last time like FROG HOLLOW
* The 1992 winner had 1 this year and 4 career starts
* The 1996 winner had 1 this year and 4 career starts
* The 2006 winner had 1 this year and 6 career starts
* The 2010 winner had 1 this year and 5 career starts
* The 2011 winner had 1 this year and 4 career starts
* FROG HOLLOW has a very good profile for me

S e l e c t i o n

FROG HOLLOW
Now best priced 3/1 PaddyPower Bet365 William Hill and a few more

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