The following stats for the Oaks at Epsom are based on ten years of researched history and were provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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Oaks – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £7.58 (ROI +68.9%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter.
Time off track: All of the last 10 winners had run within the last 5 weeks.
Position LTO: 7 out of the last 10 winners won LTO; 2 were 2nd in Oaks trials.
Price LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter LTO.
Sires: 9 out of the last 10 winners were sired by a horse that won at either Group 1 or Group 2 level.
2yo year: 6 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed as a 2yo in a Listed or Group race.
Breeding: American bred runners are rare these days but have 2 wins from 13 runners in the past 10 years. Previous to that they had a good record so they are worth noting.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: 2nd and 3rd favourites have combined to provide 0 winners from 20.
Price: Horses priced 11/1 or higher have produced 1 winner from 72 qualifiers for a loss of £38.00 (ROI -52.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Fate of the favs: 1, 1, 2, 2, 1/4, 1, 8, 5, 1, 6

Trends analysis: As with the Derby this tends to be a market driven race although in 2008 was a trends buster with the winner priced 33/1 and the second priced at 25/1. Favourites have a very good record but it is surprisingly to see no wins for 2nd or 3rd favourites. A run in the last 5 weeks has been important, as has being sired by a horse that had won in either Group 1 or Group 2 company. American breds traditionally have a good record, but there are not many such runners these days.

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