A few short words on the 2.40 at Cheltenham from Guy Ward aka The Mathematician  :)

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Looking for a lot of luck this festival. You can do all the
preparation you like and I can assure you I have done more
than 99% of other punters out there but without luck its impossible with
so many top class horses. You can read a lot and listen
to many people and their opinions. Most of these do not
help at all. Most trainers and jockeys either have no idea
or want to make sure you don’t have one either and Trust
is hard to find in anything people say. It comes down to
Judgement on the day and a bit of luck in the right place.

I do love the Festival but cut away the hype and it is just
another race meeting for a professional to turn money over on.

As ever the name of the game is to seek value and think long term
NOT just aim at the most likely winner on the day.

One the free blog today I have previewed the 2.40 for you.

I have left it as a short list of six.
It is good that you think for yourself a bit.

I have however nailed my colours to the mast for full members here.

Note the Cheltenham Offer Page if you want to join up.

Analysis for all other Cheltenham Races today is within the member area right now.

********** CHELTENHAM DEAL  ************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
******************************************

CHELTENHAM 2.40

Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/2 Bensalem, 11/2 Great Endeavour, 6/1 Sunnyhillboy
9/1 Reve De Sivola, 12/1 Blazing Bailey, 14/1 Wolf Moon
16/1 Carole´s Legacy, 20/1 Adams Island, 20/1 Chief Dan George 20/1
Exmoor Ranger, 20/1 Fair Along, 20/1 Rare Bob
25/1 King Fontaine, 25/1 Razor Royale, 25/1 The Rainbow Hunter 33/1
Carrickmines, 33/1 The Sawyer, 50/1 No Panic 50/1 Slippers Percy.

* The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

NEGATIVES

* BENSALEM fell two from home in last years race
* It looked like he may have won last season
* I think there are enough doubts to oppose him this year
* He has not had a run over fences since this race last year
* No past winners came from hurdles or a Graded race
* He has fallen in 2 of his 3 previous chase starts.
* Most winners had more chasing experience than him
* I would like more than 2 runs this season
* No 8 year old has won this so lightly raced this season.
* Horses with 1-2 runs this year running with 7 weeks are 0-32
* I felt he badly need his last run and may need this again
* The last 11 winners carried less than 11st
* BENSALEM has more than that when underraced
* I feel there are stamina doubts. He’s yet to win at this far
* He has a 0-5 record at 3m and more
* His Sire hasnt had too many 3m winners either
* For me there are too many doubts about BENSALEM
* BENSALEM is opposed

* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all distances
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR fails that
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* They were Andreas – An Accordion -Samakaan
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR looks weak with those angles
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a lot of weight with 11st 7lbs
* Only 2 of the last 17 winners had more than 11st 2lbs
* Both had Grade 1 form and he doesnt have that
* Both had 5 or more runs that season and he has just 2
* Both ran within 7 weeks and he doesnt either
* I think his weight and absence are problems
* They compact on the rest of his profile
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like GREAT ENDEAVOUR
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a career high mark as well

* SUNNYHILLBOY only has 2 runs this season
* I would want Grade 1 form for horses like that
* No winner won this with 1-2 runs without Grade 1 form
* There are stamina doubts and he has to come from 21f
* No horse managed that without Grade 1 form
* Throw in a long absence and he doesnt impress me
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like SUNNYHILLBOY
* Both had Grade 1 form and he only has Grade 3 form
* Both horses were older and had a more recent race
* SUNNYHILLBOY just doesnt look right

* BLAZING BAILEY has won his last 2 races
* It has left him with a career high mark and large weight
* He fails all sorts of weight statistics here
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Thats 74 races at the festival at all distances
* I looked for exposed horses winning with 11st 8lbs +
* Only one horse won in the last 75 races (Unguided Missile)
* He was well handicapped and well raced this year
* He also won in a small field
* BLAZING BAILEY has too much to prove for me

* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Only 1 horse came from a Grade 1 Chase
* He (Sound Reveille) won the Grand Annual over 2m
* He had Pulled up just 2 days earlier in the Arkle
* REVE DE SIVOLA would be an unorthodox winner
* In his favour is that he is well handicapped on hurdle form
* He has a good record at Cheltenham as well
* He does have several problems to contend with
* He’s 6 and only 1 horse aged 6 won Since 1972 -1956
* That winner (Antonin) had 14 previous Chase runs
* REVE DE SIVOLA only has 4 Chase starts
* Thats less experienced than any recent winner bar 1
* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from 2m 6f or less
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* REVE DE SIVOLA also fails the last time out angles
* REVE DE SIVOLA has a weak profile in my view

* CAROLE´S LEGACY is a 7yo Mare
* No 7yo Mare has won any Festival Handicap
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Mares had a 2-55 record in these races
* None did it over 3m or more
* None did it  with under 4 runs that season
* None did with over a Months absence like her
* None did it with more than 10st 9lbs (0-26)
* CAROLE´S LEGACY looks unsafe to me
* Throw in the fact she comes from hurdles
* No winner of this race managed that
* She also has a higher weight than most winners
* What swings it for me is this
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Horses aged 7 won 10 of these 75 races
* Those carrying 11st or more were 0-47
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has 11st 5lbs
* No horse with her profile has won any Chase here
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has to go

* ADAMS ISLAND comes from a Graded Chase over 21f
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* No past winners came from Graded Chases anyway
* ADAMS ISLAND doesnt leap off the page to me
* Especially with an Apprentice Rider
* He has been busier this year than most previous winners
* He makes plenty of mistakes when he races as well
* No Cheltenham experience wont help
* His trainer is said to be worried about the track
* He hasnt any form in big field handicaps either
* I think this race will find him out
* NO PANIC has a poor profile
* He was beaten 99 lengths just 12 days ago
* Pulled up the time before
* Overexposed and prefers a sharper track
* There are not enough positives to consider him
* CARRICKMINES is an exposed horses
* He doesnt fit the pattern of any past winners
* No exposed horses were aged 7-8-9 like him
* They all had backclass in a higher grade than him
* He looks overraced this year since October
* He has a Career high mark on a track he’s never ran on
* This should be too hard a race for him
* SLIPPERS PERCY is impossible to fancy
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE is 11 years old
* He won this race last year with 10st 10lbs
* This year he has 11st 7lbs a very hard weight
* He also had more runs last season
* I looked at all Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* Exposed 11 year olds with 1-2-3-4 runs that year are 2-72
* None carried 11st 5lbs or more
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE may just have too much to do
* RAZOR ROYALE is a course and distance winner
* He won the Racing Post Chase last year
* All 5 runs since them though have been miserable
* He tailed off in this race last year before pulling up
* Since then 4 runs and 4 heavy defeats
* I couldnt bet him on his recent form
* He doesnt feel fit enough or well enough to win
* THE SAWYER is 11 years old
* Horses aged 11 have a poor 1-46 record in this race
* I looked at all 11 year olds in all festival handicaps
* Take the ones that run within a Month
* Take the ones that have Graded Form
* Take the ones with 3-4-5-6 runs that season
* There are 5 winners like that in all festival handicaps
* THE SAWYER is the right type of 11yo
* That included the 1997 winner of this race
* Those aged 11 with 11st 2lbs or less were 1-3 in this race
* THE SAWYER should Not be opposed because of this age
* That said he was beaten further than ideal last time
* There is every chance he didnt stay last time
* It was in a Veterans Chase though which isnt ideal
* Two dilemmas for me
* Will the ground be too quick for him ?
* Has he had enough recovery time

MY SHORTLIST

* RARE BOB has 11st 10lbs to carry
* Thats a lot of weight for an exposed horse
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Exposed horses with 11st 8lbs or more are just 1-58
* That winner had more runs this season
* He didnt have that long an absence either
* That winner in the 1-58 record ran in this race
* That was Unguided Missile in 1998
* He had a 45 day break which is only 20 days less
* He also came from 2m 5f just as RARE BOB did
* That fact alone tells me I cant rule him out
* RARE BOB is a good price at 25/1

* KING FONTAINE is worth considering
* The only angle he fails is his last run wasnt good
* He Pulled up over 3m 4f at Haydock last time
* Ideally you want a horse 1-2-3-4 last time and he wasnt
* That said there are reasons to overlook that
* 1999 winner (Bettys Boy) was well beaten before winning
* He dropped from 3m 4f as well and was unexposed too
* He has a good weight and before his last run was flying
* He would have needed the run last time
* He has been dropped 2lbs in the weights as well
* He fits all the other important trends
* This is a horse thats going to the Grand National
* There has to be a concern this is a prep race
* All concerns are compensated by a very big price
*  KING FONTAINE is a big price at 33/1

* FAIR ALONG has to carry 11st 7lbs
* Thats a lot of weight for a small horse
* Thats probably my biggest worry about him
* Not sure about him either in a big field
* All his Chase runs have come in small fields
* All exposed winners of this had more runs that season
* They were also older than him as well as well
* FAIR ALONG has plenty in his favour though
* He is a high class Group 1 horse
* He is not badly weighted off 148
* I think he has the class to win this off a big  weight
* It’s just whether he can jump well enough
* Thats when a small horse in a big field with a big weight

* THE RAINBOW HUNTER is a lightly raced 7yo
* No concerns he has never run beyond Class 3 before
* Not dissimilar to 2006 winner Dun Doire
* I see him as progressive and a serious runner

* WOLF MOON won a Novice Chase last time
* The 2004 and 2008 winners of this race did that
* Both were 8 year olds as WOLF MOON is
* As a profile I am happy with that
* You could say the two other winners came from better tracks
* They both won with absences as well and he doesnt
* Neither were out of the handicap either
* WOLF MOON is 6lbs wrong at the weights
* That has to hurt him when there is a class issue
* Its a lot to ask for a Catterick Novice Chase winner
* There has been 1 winner of this out of the weights
* That was maamur back in 1996
* He was also an 8yo
* He also won within the past 15 days like WOLF MOON
* Thats what swings it for me
* Profile wise he is more than good enough to shortlist

* EXMOOR RANGER was brought down at the 7th last year
* I gave him a really good chance of winning this last year
* I wouldnt rule him out with 3lbs more this year
* Technically he is exposed with 21 runs but I forgive that
* He is on the cusp and he hasnt ran 21 full races yet
* Happy to overlook 11st 3lbs as well
* There are some doubts about him
* I dont like the fact he has a career high mark
* I dont like the fact he Unseated rider last time either
* He was going well when he fell though
* Statistically I cant match him as he wasnt 1-2-3-4 last time
* I still give him a good chance in this race
* Ground Trip and Track are right for him
* Very much one of the better options

LATEST ODDS AND PRICES FOR THIS RACE

See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-03-15/cheltenham/14-40/betting/

********** CHELTENHAM DEAL  ************
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