Apache Glory won well for us last weekend at 6/1 advised.

Today there are a lot of short priced favourites in handicaps
I have made negatives today so it should be interesting.
I wont get them all right but there are several of these.
In the 2.30 at Ascot I think MACS POWER has a big
chance against a bad favourite. Although admittedly it
is a bit contradictory I think my negative RITUAL is
actually a sensible place bet at evens and I plan to go
for a place bet on him and win bet on MACS POWER
rather than the other option MACS POWER eachway.

A s c o t   2.30

5/1 Ritual, 7/1 Mac4s Power, 8/1 Dungannon
9/1 Piazza San Pietro, 10/1 L4ami Louis, 12/1 Johannes
12/1 R Woody, 12/1 Racy, 12/1 Secret Witness, 14/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Courageous, 14/1 Imperial Guest, 16/1 Lutine Bell 16/1 Mon Brav,
16/1 Singeur, 25/1 Edge Closer
25/1 Noble Citizen, 33/1 Below Zero, 33/1 Tamagin.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* RITUAL has a bad profile from a 5f race
* He is 4 and only has 1 run this season
* Horses from 5f races aged 4 were 0-32
* No horse came from 5f without 5 runs that year
* I will be surprised if Ritual wins this
* MON BRAV is a negative aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* RACY is a negative  aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* L4AMI LOUIS is wrong as a 3yo
* None won with under 7 runs or 4 this year
* L4AMI LOUIS doesnt have that and is weak
* BABY STRANGE – Wrong from a 5f race
* R WOODY is underraced for a 4yo with 13 + runs
* All similar 4 year olds needed 5 + runs that season
* COURAGEOUS – Needs more runs down from 7f
* JOHANNES – His age are weak and he isnt right
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO – Can’t dismiss him but unsafe
* I’d be worried about the ground for him
* IMPERIAL GUEST – Wanted a better last run
* LUTINE BELL – Small chance but ground worries
* SINGEUR – I liked him more than his profile
* I Couldnt match him to any winners though
* DUNGANNON is 4 and won last time out
* The 4 year olds doing that did have more runs
* They had more runs that season as well
* If I am strict then DUNGANNON falls short
* SECRET WITNESS – Hard to read. Feels a big ask
* MAC4S POWER has to be a big positive
* I’d worry he is handicapped a bit too harshly
* Like his profile and he must go close

S E L E C T I O N

I have Ritual down as a negative but he is clearly a highly
regarded horse from outstanding connections. There lacks
a lot of strong profiles here as well and that tells me it will be too riSky to lay Ritual.
I am selecting an alternative but  it strikes me that with 4 places available
Ritual is going to be about 10/11 to 11/10 to be placed in the race and with  a
questionable field that may not be a bad price.
He could easily get beaten and place and the statistics to work out.
That seems a fair price to me.
It would even tempt me in a split stake bet with Ritual to place and MAC’S POWER being the main selecton in the race.

Coming in a touch now but 4/1 Mac’s Power available in several spots, Bet365, PaddyPower , Ladbrokes, VC etc

Guy Ward

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Guy Ward runs the well regarded in depth advisory service over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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