The Great St Wilfrid Sprint

3.55 Ripon – The Great St Wilfrid
Long term members will know I love the big sprints and today instead of looking through each runner one by one, I thought it may be interesting for me to discuss how I have analysed the race. Basically I am thinking out loud here …..
This race is complicated slightly by the fact the going is likely to be good to firm. This gives lower draws more of a chance; if it was good or softer then it would be high all the way. I am torn as all the best pace is low, but the specific race stats point strongly to high. I think the way to go is to back more than one runner – a method I often use in big sprints.
OK – let’s look at the favourite. Markab was definitely unlucky in the Wokingham when 4th and best of the stands side runners. He also was arguably unlucky at Goodwood in the Stewards Cup when 4th again. He is a worthy favourite, but the middle draw in 10 is not ideal and at the prices he looks a little tight. Don’t get me wrong – he is a worthy favourite and the most likely winner, but successful betting is about getting value and I’m not convinced he is value.
2nd favourite Excusez Moi won this race in 2006 and has been in decent form all year. Could be perfectly drawn in 19, but my biggest concern is that he tends to be held up and this is a pace track – a track that favours front runners / prominent racers. Of course people will argue that he won in 2006 so what is the problem  – however at around 7/1 I’m not going to be backing a hold up horse in this race. I may be wrong but that is my thinking.
Outside the top 2, most betting firms go 12/1 and I am hoping that we will find some value amongst the double figure prices.
Advanced – a definite for my shortlist. Has form in these big field handicaps (won Ayr Gold Cup); decent 6th in Wokingham this year; could have a good high draw. Does not race right up with the pace, but recently has only been held up once in last five starts. Amy Ryan is decent for 5lb claimer.
Hitchens – has good speed figures and is looking well handicapped after some recent modest efforts. Concern is that since switching stables to Barron the hold is being held up; he needs to be closer to the pace today and if he is ridden quite handy then he may be worth getting on ‘in running’.
Joseph Henry – could have the plum draw in 20 and I think David Allen is a good jockey booking as he rides his mounts prominently in sprints which is a plus. Not sure Joseph Henry is quite good enough to win here but looks an each way bet to me. Last run over a distance that was not ideal can be ignored.
Of the low draws I like Striking Spirit best – drawn 1 which could prove better than the pundits predict. Expect him to track Tamagin down that rail and looks overpriced to me. Ran well enough in the Stewards Cup (best finish of any horse drawn in the 20s).
Of the remainder I could not rule out Jimmy Styles, Judge ‘N’ Jury, Fullandby, Kostar and Ishetoo – so as you can see this is not easy!
All in all I think I will back one either side(each way) – those being Joseph Henry and Striking Spirit. I may well have covers on Hitchens and Advanced – just a couple of quid on each to balance the main bets.
Joseph Henry 14/1 with Sportingbet ; Striking Spirit 20/1 with Skybet – both are offering 1st five for each way
If you are punting good luck!

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Racing at Newbury

N E W B U R Y

It’s not a pleasant card. Ground will be soft. I will start with the HACKWOOD Stakes at 2.20pm. Its a race where young horses have dominated. Horses aged 3 have won 22 of the last 31 races and that shows how well they have done. That could all change on soft ground. My own thoughts here were WAR ARTIST is a vulnerable horse despite top rated. I wouldnt trust James Eustace to get a 7 year old with a 372 day absence fit on soft ground and whilst he may well win I’d be looking for an each way bet against him. I would ignore the 5f trip jumpers like Madame Trop Vite,
Matsunosuke . FESTOSO isnt for me as a filly. Much will depend on the ground. Many of these are clearly much better on faster ground. PRIME DEFENDER looks a faster ground type. I didnt like EDGE CLOSER. I think there are Three interesting runners. HIGH YIELD comes via 6f handicaps and only two of the last 17 winners did that but one came from the Wokingham like he does and he has a good chance. ICELANDIC comes from a 5f race but that was yesterday and its just possible he has a fitness edge and I wouldnt rule him out much as his chance is imposible to judge and comes with plenty of risk.The strongest runner statistically for me is DONCASTER ROVER. He is a lightly raced 3yo thats just won the same Haydock Conditions race as similar types won before they won this in 2003 and 2005. I gave him a great chance but like you would not be sure he handles soft. DONCASTER ROVER looks a good price and can win if he handles soft.

I havent got a clue what to make of the Fillies Handicap at 2.50. First of all there has only been 1 Fillies Handicap in July in this Class so we have no similar races to draw stats from. Secondly I wouldnt have a clue how to rate COSMOPOLITAN who comes from a Group 1 race into a Handicap. All I can tell you is that I looked at every Fillies handicap in the last 20 years anywhere and
in any class and horses that dropped from Group 1 or Group 2 races were 0-23 and it hasnt happened yet. Personally I would oppose her. I would take out anything with 1 run this year as well. Bottom line is I dont have the angles.

NEWBURY 3.55

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT(CLASS 2)(2yo) 5f34y

11/4 Monsieur Chevalier, 6/1 Above Limits, 6/1 Shamandar
16/1 Here Now And Why, 16/1 Palisades Park 16/1 Reach For
The Sky, 20/1 Archers Road, 20/1 Chocolate Cookie, 20/1 Red Avalanche, 20/1 Star Rover, 25/1 Desert Auction 25/1 Eternal Instinct, 33/1 Existentialist, 33/1 Reddy To Star 33/1 Social Grace, 40/1 Itsthursdayalready 50/1 Kirsty’s Boy, 50/1 Leleyf, 50/1 Strike Shot, 66/1 Blushing 100/1 French Connexion

The Super Sprint is now on its 17th year. On the one
hand you have some excellent stats in the race. On the
other hand you have an impossible looking race. What
I want to do this year is use the same angles that I used
last year as they shortlisted the winner as well as the
2nd and 4th much as I chose the wrong one ! I will use
the same format as last year and end with a shortlist.

* Newbury has had 17 renewals of the Super Sprint
* Horses at 25/1 and more are 1-178
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* You ideally want a horse thats ran in Class 3 or higher
* Horses that hadn’t done that with 3 + runs were 0-85
* Males that hadn’t done that  were 0-70
* Horses that hadn’t done that from 6f were 0-48
* Horses that hadnt done thatfrom novice races were 0-33
* Fillies are best and lead 12 wins to 5
* Males that had just under 3 runs were 0-38
* Males that came from 2yo maidens had a 0-58 record
* No past winner came from Nurseries
* Horses that had penalties didnrt score well but won last years
* Horses that came from maidens with 3 or more runs were 0-62
* Horses that came from conditions races in class 4 or lower were 0-64
* Horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out struggled (1-97)
* Horses with 4 + runs that didnt come from a Group race were 0-129
* No horse was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
* I have 2 horses on my shortlist
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER – ABOVE LIMITS
* The ground and penalty worries me for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER
* I just prefer ABOVE LIMITS

I thought the handicap at 4.30 was too hard. I would have opposed all the exposed horses that were well beaten over 12f last time or that were aged 7 or more doing this and Capable Guest , Heron Bay and Cheshire Prince look weak because of that. I wouldnt want any horse with under 2 runs that year so Monreale and JASER are out. I didnt fancy Kevkat. I looked at exposed horses that lost by over
10 lengths last time. When having under 5 runs that year they had a 0-74 record and when running over 9f or less a 1-60 record so as FINAL VERSE fails both he is out as well. I would only shortlist 4 horses in Bugaku – King Charles -Safari Sunup -Dar Es Salaam and forced to pick the lightly raced Stoute improver BUGAKU appeals.

The Staying Handicap that ends Newburys card should go to one of the fancied runners. Horses with absences are poor in these 2m races. ABSOLUT POWER -WINGED D´ARGENT have been off too long. CALCULATING isnt good enough on grass. I like fillies that come from winning and the lighter raced the better so I am making ISABELONABICYCLE a positive. SWORDSMAN also  has to be one with a very recent run. I would concerntrate on these.
best wishes

Guy

To Visit Guy’s  site click here free horse racing tips

Wokingham Stakes

The big horse race of the day is the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot

Below are some helpful facts and figures from Dave Renham at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

4.20 Ascot Wokingham Stakes (6f – handicap) 3yo+

N.B there was a dead heat in 2003 so we have 21 winners to consider.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 14 of the last 21 winners were priced between 10/1 and 20/1.
Position LTO: 16 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 LTO.
Distance LTO: Horses dropping down a furlong from running over 7f LTO have a good record with 8 wins from 85 qualifiers for a profit of 76 pts (ROI +89.4%).
Career wins:18 of the last 21 winners had won at least three times in their careers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Second favourites (inc. joints): 0 from 30.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 5 winners from 300 runners for a loss of 190 pts (ROI -63.3%).
Distance LTO: Horses stepping up from 5f LTO have a very poor record with just 1 win from 130 runners.
Last 6 runs: Horses that have failed to finish 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last six runs have provided 0 winners from 112.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 2 wins from 20 for a loss of 5 pts (ROI -25%).
Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 34 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 9 from 205 runners (SR 4.4%); 5yos have won 7 from 140 runners (SR 5%); 6yos have won 4 from 99 runners (SR 4%); 7yos+ have won 1 from 99 (SR 1%).
Trends Summary: One of the top handicap sprints of the year and with an average of around 27 runners it is not easy! Horses priced between 10/1 and 20/1 seem to offer the best value, assuming they have finished in the first four LTO. It is best to ignore horses that raced over 5f LTO, have not finished in the first two on at least one of their last six starts, and horses aged 7 or older. Using those five stats mentioned above would have found the winner in 60% of the races from only 18% of all runners. One final positive trend worth noting is the good record of horses dropping down from 7f LTO.

Dave Renham

To visit Dave’s Site click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics