Saturday Racing Lays

The racing trends lay service had a good day yesterday.

13 lays suggested and 13 horses turned over.

Since the start of the year total profit figures on these lays is circa 99 points.

That includes Betfair commission and is based on BSP odds.

The 99 points is based on laying them just to win.

Laying them to place as well is a very viable extra option.

See the post below with long term spreadsheet etc.

Lay Sreadsheet Staking Plans

I popped a few up here last weekend and both were unplaced.

One from this method for  today is

Haydock 4.10 Royal Rock

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Saturday Racing Tip

The following horse racing tip below comes from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

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NEWMARKET 2.35

Bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 Bet365 Coral VC

Saturday Racing Tips

Saturday racing message from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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A longer than usual Saturday blog post today.

I do have an Account Bet today in the 5.15 however
I have held that back as full member only.

What you have here are a lot of stats and thoughts on many other races.
This is typical of the extra supplementary info clients get daily from me.
Many clients ignore it and wait for Account Bets.
Others use it as extra info in their own personal betting decission making process.

Selections noted treat as “If you forced a fiver into my hand and gave me a free bet”

It is only the full Account Bets however I get heavily stuck into myself.

T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

Heavy Rain today will probably change the ground
at several tracks and that looks the most important
issue today. I have a few National Hunt things to say
but there isnt much over the Jumps and after that it
is a look at a few races on the Flat.

A I N T R E E

The 1.05 is a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2 Miles. There
has been 47 of these races at this time of year. What you
have to avoid in these races is exposed horses. Interesting
that 46 of the 47 winners were lightly raced wikth under 21 career starts.
I would rule out European Dream – Front Rank and Premier Dane.
ST BOREAS HAWK is impossible to get
a grip on absent 2 seasons and more so I’m neutral about him.
No 4yo had the weight INDIAN GROOM has and managed
to win. THUMBS UP is a 4yo from a Novice Hurdle. Two
winners did that and they had 5-6 runs and he’s just 4 runs.
Almost forgivable but a big weight wont help. None of the 47 went to
seasonal debutants from Novice handicaps so I oppose SUNSETTEN
who may need the race according to his trainer.
MAGELLAN STRAITS is also opposed. I didnt
like the profile of HARRY TRICKER. I doubt STELLINO
or AMAZING KING is about to win a Class 2 race. Given
the choice I See four potential winners.  THUMBS UP has
chances. SIR BOREAS HAWK can win if fit. ZANIR and
NAMPOUR are also potential winners. Final choice would
be THUMBS UP each way at 5/1.

The 2.50pm is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 3 Miles.
You will be in the dark with several seasonal debutants
in the race. The best profile for me could be the recent
winner DUNBRODY HOUSE. I looked at all similar 3m
Novice Handicaps. Horses that won a Novice handicap
Hurdle in the last month had a 9-19 record and take the
ones that had 11st 2lbs or less and that improves to a
7-10 record. Those aged 5 like him were 1-1. Those
who came from 2m 4f as he does were 3-5. This is a
step up in class though and thats my main worry. It
may be best to go with a Place Only bet.

C H E P S T O W

The 1.20pm  is a weak renewal of the Persian War Hurdle.
There is no ideal type which would be a horse with multiple
runs this year. We havent got that. This is a Graded Hurdle
and I would have to oppose AITEEN THIRTYTHREE as
a horse from a Bumper with just 1 career run. No similar
race went to a horse like that. I would prefer a horse from
a Grade 1 hurdle like REVE DE SIVOLA much as it was only
a 4yo Grade 1 Hurdle. REVE DE SIVOLA is my choice.

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NEWBURY 1.30

Hildon EBF Maiden Stakes (Div 1) (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m

7/2 Sir Pitt, 9/2 Latansaa, Total Command, 13/2 Aultcharn,
13/2 Multames, 7/1 State Fair, 11/1 Sea Of Heartbreak,
11/1 Tappanappa, 20/1 Boston Blue, 20/1 Sweet Secret,
25/1 Green Moon, 25/1 Mount Athos, 40/1 Baoli, 40/1
Goldtrek,  40/1 Oak Leaves, 66/1 Big Talk, Green Army,
100/1 First Post.

Starts off with a Big field Maiden for 2 year olds over a
Mile.  I want to oppose some of the fancied runners in a
race I can only guess in. STATE FAIR has had  4 runs
already and hasnt won. This is a Grade 1 track and if you
have not won by your fourth race you must have some
limitations. Very few Grade 1 track maidens go to a horse
so experienced. In fact those doing just this and stepping
up in trip were just 1-36 and none that exposed won this
race. I think his draw in stall 3 is a problem too as the last
19 races here with 9 + runners show only one horse drawn
1-2-3 winning. I would be inclined to go for a lighter raced
fancied runner as an alternative. Male horses with 1 run that
come from maidens over 7f when beaten more than 10 lengths
in that race in the last month have a 2-175 record.
Thats not good and  both TOTAL COMMAND  and
AULTCHARN have that to overcome so I dont see
them as good enough options. Marcus Treggoning hasnt
had an unraced 2yo win at a Grade 1 track at this time
of year so LATANSAA has issues as well. If I had to be
with any of these it would be SIR PITT. I think its a race
for a split stake bet to maximise the chances of a return.
SIR PITT is a win bet to half your stake and the other
half on STATE FAIR to place in the hope his experience
is enough to stop 3 horses beating him. I’m guessing here.

SELECTION

SIR PITT – Win Bet
STATE FAIR – Place Bet

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DONCASTER 1.50

Lincoln Restaurant Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4)
(3yo+ 0-80) 1m2f60y

9/4 Starla Dancer, 5/1 Veiled Applause, 6/1 Baltimore Jack,
13/2 Nevada Desert, 9/1 Admiral Dundas, 12/1 Maybeme,
12/1 Northern Jem, 14/1 Middlemarch, 16/1 Agapanthus,
16/1 Punch Drunk, 16/1 Taaresh, 25/1 Desert Vision.

This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses. There’s
been 177 similar races this time of year. If you look
at 3 year old fillies that come from 3yo handicaps
they dont have a great record. Those that ran in the
last 7 weeks had a 1-52 record in the 77 races. This
is not a strong profile and STARLA DANCER and
PUNCH DRUNK have that against them. I would
not make STARLA DANCER a negative though. It
would have been more promising if horses like her
had a better record but that sole winner in the 1-52
record did win last time and recently as she has so
she’s very similar to that winner. DESERT VISION
looks outclassd. NEVADA DESERT isnt for me. He
won a Class 6 handicap on the sand last week but this
is a much better race and horses his age score poorly
and none won coming up from such low grade races
and I wouldnt see him as a great bet.  TAARESH has
been off far too long. MIDDLEMARCH looks too
old with his absence. AGAPANTHUS is trained by
Barney Curley and you never know where you are
with him. Statistically as a 4 year old that was well
beaten last time and with just 4 runs this season he
has a weak profile and I am taking him on. Fillies
aged 3 that have not won before like MAYBEME
had a 2-73 record and those beaten 2 + lengths last
time were 0-64 so I would avoid her as well. I dont
want NORTHERN JEM. I have found horses like
him well beaten last time out and he was hampered
badly last time but he has only had 1 run since July
and I think he is underraced and may not be at his
peak. I would shortlist these

SHORTLIST

ADMIRAL DUNDAS has a strong profile and is a
potential winner if the rains stay away. I feel the
same about VEILED APPLAUSE another who is
better on faster ground. Bearing in mind the rain
thats falling I wouldnt want to be with either of
them. BALTIMORE JACK is another who has a
decent profile but concerns on the ground. With
the ground issue STARLA DANCER may well be
sticking with.

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NEWBURY 2.05

Totesport 0800 221 221 Stakes
(Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes)
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

5/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 11/2 Pastoral Player, 6/1 Audacity Of Hope,
6/1 Classic Colori, Burnett, 9/1 Cadley Road, 11/1 Critical Moment,
12/1 Dubawi Phantom, 12/1 Red Badge, 14/1 Carnaby Street,
16/1 Pleasant Day, 25/1 Exceedingly Bold, 33/1 Art Excellence, 40/1 Navajo Chief.

If you look at the 20 years of results in the Horris Hill
Stakes you see that horses from 6f races have struggled.
Overall in 20 years they are 3-48 but it masks the fact
that only 1 has won since 1992. Horses from a 6f race
have never won this race with under 3 career starts as
all 12 lost and None have won from a 6f maiden. I would
see horses like this as questionable at beat and all wrong at worst.
CLASSIC COLORI is from a 6f maiden with just 1
run and no past winner did that.  PASTORAL PLAYER
has the same problem. None of the last 20 winners were
like IVER BRIDGE LAD coming up from a 5f race so I
oppose him. CARNABY STREET is rejected as well as
he comes from a 6f Maiden. No past winners came from
an 8f maiden like ART EXCELLENCE and BURNETT.
I think the best profiles come from those at bigger odds
like CRITICAL MOMENT – AUDACITY OF HOPE or
CADLEY ROAD. The issue with these three runners is
Soft ground as they all would have doubts about them
on softer ground. I feel the same way about another in
PLEASANT DAY. He may want in faster. In the end
I decided to risk RED BADGE. He has improvement to
find but he is experienced and will handle the ground.
I will go with RED BADGE at 14/1.

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DONCASTER 2.20

Coral.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  5f

11/2 Rulesn´regulations, 7/1 Cheveton, 10/1 Cape Vale,
10/1 The Nifty Fox, 11/1 Judge ´n Jury, 12/1 Fathom Five,
12/1 Invincible Lad, Quest For Success, 16/1 Equuleus Pictor,
16/1 Wi Dud, 20/1 Hamish Mcgonagall, 20/1 Northern Dare,
20/1 Parisian Pyramid, 20/1 Waffle, 25/1 Canadian Danehill,
25/1 Captain Gerrard, 25/1 Fullandby, 25/1 River Falcon,
33/1 Excusez Moi, 33/1 Matsunosuke.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* We have 47 similar races at this time of year
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time need opposing
* Of those that ran within 2 weeks had a 0-55 record
* Ignore all horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose all exposed horses absent over a month
* Ignore all horses with under 5 runs or under 2 runs this year
* Avoid horses aged 9 or more
* Horses from 6f handicaps were fine
* They must be Class 2 handicaps (Others 1-79)
* Horses from 6f are intersting and won 16 races
* However those who were 1st or 2nd last time struggled
* They had a 0-38 record
* I’d oppose horses 1-2 over 6f last time
* I would oppose horses aged 7 or more from 6f
* Exposed horses from 5f races need 7 + runs this year

SHORTLIST

THE NIFTY FOX isnt too bad statistically but a career
high mark wont be easy to overcome. The horse behind
him last week EQUULEUS PICTOR is fine statistically.
WI DUD has a strong profile. HAMISH MCGONAGALL
looks excellent statistically.  CAPE VALE is also strong.
INVINCIBLE LAD was 3rd over 6f just 3 days ago and
may have a fitness edge. In 47 races there was just one
horse that ran within 4 days dropping back from a 6f race
and that horse came second at 10/1 coming from a class 4
handicap. I will go with him. INVINCIBLE LAD  is the
suggestion.

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NEWBURY 2.35

Totesport.com St Simon Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m4f5y

100/30 Harbinger, 5/1 All The Aces, 5/1 High Heeled,
5/1 Tastahil, 15/2 Chock A Block, 10/1 Enroller,
16/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Illustrious Blue, Halicarnassus,
25/1 Heliodor, 25/1 Merchant Of Dubai.

The St Simon Stakes (2.35) is always a complicated race
over 12f. I am just going to follow the trends in the race
and see what I am left with. Horses dropping in distance
have struggled with a 2-50 record and no 4 year old did
that so MERCHANT OF DUBAI and ALL THE ACES
have that to overcome. TASTAHIL drops from 2 miles
and just one past winner  did that and he didnt have the
long absence  TASTAHIL has. HELIODOR doesnt look
good enough up in trip. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE looks too
exposed and short of runs this year. HALLICARNASSUS
isnt my first choice. I would shortlist these 5 runners.

ENROLLER – DRILL SERGEANT -HARBINGER
HIGH HEELED – CHOCK A BLOCK

I Like ENROLLER’s profile a lot. Horses aged 4 that had
13 + career runs from 12 races had a 4-10 record  in this
race. The downside being they ran better than he did when
running with that profile last time. DRILL SERGEANT
has a similar profile and whilst technically a bit exposed
he comes from the Godolphin Stakes which both the 2008
and 2007 winners did and its a key trial. CHOCK A BLOCK
won that race and has to be shortlisted as does HARBINGER
but you can argue that CHOCK A BLOCK and HARBINGER
would be the least experienced 3yo Male to win. All the past winning
3 year olds had at least 5 career starts and this pair have just 4 runs.
HIGH HEELED is a 3yo filly and they’ve a brilliant record in this race.
The only problem statistically is all past winning 3yo fillies were both lighter
raced than her and had lighter seasons as well.In the end there was just one
niggling thing wrong with every runner. I decided to go with a 3yo filly with
recent form and ability to handle the going so I suggest HIGH HEELED
each way around 6/1.

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DONCASTER 2.55

Racingpost Stakes Registered As The Doncaster Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

9/4 Citrus Star, 11/4 Corporal Maddox, 100/30 Layla´s Hero, 10/1 Tropical Treat,
11/1 Tomatin, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Walkingonthemoon,
20/1 Colonel Mak, 25/1 Singeur, 50/1 Al Naouwee.

The Doncaster Shield is a trappy Listed Class race for
2 year olds. I would ignore all horses that had not won
a race before. I would oppose all horses from 5f races.
No horse won with 13 or more career runs. Oppose all
horses well beaten last time. Oppose all horses with 7
or more runs if absent over a Month. This leads to a
shortlist of two horses.  I dont feel I have broken into
the race well enough. For the record the two shortlisted
are LAYLA’S  HERO – CORPORAL MADDOX. I feel
LAYLA’S HERO has stronger form and think he wins.

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NEWBURY 4.55

Watch The Jump Season On Racing UK Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)1m2f6y

4/1 Rainbow Peak, 5/1 Namibian Orator, 11/2 Cill Rialaig,
8/1 Bab Al Salam, The Fifth Member, 12/1 The Which Doctor,
12/1 Wintercast, 14/1 William Blake, 16/1 Dr Livingstone,
16/1 King Charles, 16/1 Sohcahtoa, 16/1 Spell Caster,
20/1 The Cayterers, 25/1 Bound By Honour,
28/1 Salden Licht, 33/1 Kaolak.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-94 rated horses
* There has been 15 renewals of this race
* There has been 53 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* There has been 89 Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps

Horses from 8f  races havent done that well. In the 89
similar races no horse came from 8f or less with under
5 career starts and NAMIBIAN ORATOR has only 3
career runs and looks opposable. SALDEN LIGHT is
from 8f and doesnt appeal with just 2 runs this year.
SOHCAHTOA is a 3yo coming from an  8f handicap.
When these horses had 9 or more runs as he does they
were just 1-56. BAB AL SALAM was beaten too far in
3yo handicap last time. DR LIVINGSTONE comes out
wrong absent 50 days and with just 3 runs this year. I
feel the same about SPELL CASTER a filly absent 105
days. Exposed horses aged 7 like THE CAYTERERS
scored badly and need a very recent run. In last years
race WILLIAM BLAKE was beaten a long way and I
dont want him this year as no exposed 4 year old won
a similar race down in distance. Horses aged 3 that lost
by 10 + lengths last time were poor. When having 13
or more runs they were 0-39 so KAOLAK has to go.
I couldnt find a winner like THE WHICH DOCTOR
beaten so far last time. BOUND BY HONOUR fails
similar angles. The only lightly raced 4 year olds to
win were horses that won last time out and those that
didnt were 0-31 and WINTERCAST fails that and it
may not have been a good enough run last time.

SHORTLIST

KING CHARLES comes out well. Exposed 5 year olds
down in trip with a recent run had a 2-5 record and he
looks strong in several areas. If you look at exposed
5 year olds that have under 7 runs this season coming
from 10f races as THE FIFTH MEMBER does you get
a 6-19 record. Those that were 1-2-3-4-5 last time out
improved that to a 6-14 record so he has to have a big
chance. My reservation with THE FIFTH MEMBER is
a career high mark and no wins outside Class 4 or lower.
CILL RIALAIG has an excellent profile as a lightly
raced 4 year old filly winning last time out. Those like
her with under 9 runs were 2-2 in the 89 races. Back in
2005 the winner of this race (Khyber Kim) had only 2
runs and came here from a Conditions race and thats a
very similar profile to RAINBOW PEAK so he has to
be shortlistable as well. It may be significant that the
last 7 winners were aged 3-4 and unexposed which is a
pointer to RAINBOW PEAK and CILL RIALAIG off
my shortlist. In the end given the ground I decided to
chance KING CHARLES each way around 20/1.

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Saturday Racing at Newbury

N E W B U R Y

It’s not a pleasant card. Ground will be soft. I will start with the HACKWOOD Stakes at 2.20pm. Its a race where young horses have dominated. Horses aged 3 have won 22 of the last 31 races and that shows how well they have done. That could all change on soft ground. My own thoughts here were WAR ARTIST is a vulnerable horse despite top rated. I wouldnt trust James Eustace to get a 7 year old with a 372 day absence fit on soft ground and whilst he may well win I’d be looking for an each way bet against him. I would ignore the 5f trip jumpers like Madame Trop Vite,
Matsunosuke . FESTOSO isnt for me as a filly. Much will depend on the ground. Many of these are clearly much better on faster ground. PRIME DEFENDER looks a faster ground type. I didnt like EDGE CLOSER. I think there are Three interesting runners. HIGH YIELD comes via 6f handicaps and only two of the last 17 winners did that but one came from the Wokingham like he does and he has a good chance. ICELANDIC comes from a 5f race but that was yesterday and its just possible he has a fitness edge and I wouldnt rule him out much as his chance is imposible to judge and comes with plenty of risk.The strongest runner statistically for me is DONCASTER ROVER. He is a lightly raced 3yo thats just won the same Haydock Conditions race as similar types won before they won this in 2003 and 2005. I gave him a great chance but like you would not be sure he handles soft. DONCASTER ROVER looks a good price and can win if he handles soft.

I havent got a clue what to make of the Fillies Handicap at 2.50. First of all there has only been 1 Fillies Handicap in July in this Class so we have no similar races to draw stats from. Secondly I wouldnt have a clue how to rate COSMOPOLITAN who comes from a Group 1 race into a Handicap. All I can tell you is that I looked at every Fillies handicap in the last 20 years anywhere and
in any class and horses that dropped from Group 1 or Group 2 races were 0-23 and it hasnt happened yet. Personally I would oppose her. I would take out anything with 1 run this year as well. Bottom line is I dont have the angles.

NEWBURY 3.55

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT(CLASS 2)(2yo) 5f34y

11/4 Monsieur Chevalier, 6/1 Above Limits, 6/1 Shamandar
16/1 Here Now And Why, 16/1 Palisades Park 16/1 Reach For
The Sky, 20/1 Archers Road, 20/1 Chocolate Cookie, 20/1 Red Avalanche, 20/1 Star Rover, 25/1 Desert Auction 25/1 Eternal Instinct, 33/1 Existentialist, 33/1 Reddy To Star 33/1 Social Grace, 40/1 Itsthursdayalready 50/1 Kirsty’s Boy, 50/1 Leleyf, 50/1 Strike Shot, 66/1 Blushing 100/1 French Connexion

The Super Sprint is now on its 17th year. On the one
hand you have some excellent stats in the race. On the
other hand you have an impossible looking race. What
I want to do this year is use the same angles that I used
last year as they shortlisted the winner as well as the
2nd and 4th much as I chose the wrong one ! I will use
the same format as last year and end with a shortlist.

* Newbury has had 17 renewals of the Super Sprint
* Horses at 25/1 and more are 1-178
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* You ideally want a horse thats ran in Class 3 or higher
* Horses that hadn’t done that with 3 + runs were 0-85
* Males that hadn’t done that  were 0-70
* Horses that hadn’t done that from 6f were 0-48
* Horses that hadnt done thatfrom novice races were 0-33
* Fillies are best and lead 12 wins to 5
* Males that had just under 3 runs were 0-38
* Males that came from 2yo maidens had a 0-58 record
* No past winner came from Nurseries
* Horses that had penalties didnrt score well but won last years
* Horses that came from maidens with 3 or more runs were 0-62
* Horses that came from conditions races in class 4 or lower were 0-64
* Horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out struggled (1-97)
* Horses with 4 + runs that didnt come from a Group race were 0-129
* No horse was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
* I have 2 horses on my shortlist
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER – ABOVE LIMITS
* The ground and penalty worries me for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER
* I just prefer ABOVE LIMITS

I thought the handicap at 4.30 was too hard. I would have opposed all the exposed horses that were well beaten over 12f last time or that were aged 7 or more doing this and Capable Guest , Heron Bay and Cheshire Prince look weak because of that. I wouldnt want any horse with under 2 runs that year so Monreale and JASER are out. I didnt fancy Kevkat. I looked at exposed horses that lost by over
10 lengths last time. When having under 5 runs that year they had a 0-74 record and when running over 9f or less a 1-60 record so as FINAL VERSE fails both he is out as well. I would only shortlist 4 horses in Bugaku – King Charles -Safari Sunup -Dar Es Salaam and forced to pick the lightly raced Stoute improver BUGAKU appeals.

The Staying Handicap that ends Newburys card should go to one of the fancied runners. Horses with absences are poor in these 2m races. ABSOLUT POWER -WINGED D´ARGENT have been off too long. CALCULATING isnt good enough on grass. I like fillies that come from winning and the lighter raced the better so I am making ISABELONABICYCLE a positive. SWORDSMAN also  has to be one with a very recent run. I would concerntrate on these.
best wishes

Guy

To Visit Guy’s  site click here free horse racing tips

Saturday Racing Analysis

Saturday Racing Analysis from Dave Renham of RacingTrends

To Visit Dave’s site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Statistics

Two big races today where I have taken a 20 year trends approach in an attempt to create some shortlists.

3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £24.00 (ROI +36.4%).

Last time out winners: 17 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Price: 16 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 3/1 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £37.00 (ROI +41.6%).

Seasonal debut: 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut.

Draw: In big fields (18+ runners) all winners have been drawn middle to high. The lowest winning stall position in such races has been 12.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times since 1998. Sir Michael Stoute has been successful 3 times in 1997, 2000 and 2001.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting market have provided 2 winners from 215 runners for a loss of £172.00 (ROI -80%).

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 148 runners.

Career starts: Horses that raced 8 times or more in their career have provided 0 winners from 44.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 20 for a loss of £11.67 (ROI -58.4%).

Course winners: Course winners have won 7 races from 97 (SR 7.2%); non course winners have won 13 races from 245 (SR 5.3%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race although favourites have a poor record. Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners not surprisingly have a good record, while horses making their seasonal debut are around 5 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). Big priced outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have not scored in the last 20 years. Finally, runners from the stable of Aidan O’Brien clearly demand the upmost respect.

Conclusion – no horse perfectly matching the trends so we have to find horses that match the trends the best. Both Aidan O’Brien’s horses did not win LTO (which is a negative) and of the pair Mastercraftsman looks the right portion of the betting. Arguably the best fit is Evasive – currently 10/1 4th favourite. So from a trends perspective Evasive and Mastercraftsman look the rip. Rip Van Winkle if deposed as favourite (which is possible) then that would make up the trends trio.

3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 15 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 9 winners. That equates to 45% of the races from which they have provided just 20% of the total runners.

Market position LTO: 12 of the last 20 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their previous start have provided just 1 winner from 47 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -63.8%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 101 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -58.4%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 3 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -65.8%). However, they have provided 2 of the last 4 winners.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 8 wins from 23 for a profit of 34 pence!

Age: 3yos have won 5 races from 60 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 4yos have won 7 races from 76 qualifiers (SR 9.2%); 5yos have won 5 races from 44 qualifiers (SR 11.4%); 6yos have won 2 races from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 7yos+ have won 1 race from 42 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have won 16 races from 199 runners (SR 8%); female runners have won 4 races from 61 (SR 6.6%).

Trends analysis: Horses priced in single figures is a potential starting point, while, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO and those that were priced 16/1 or bigger on their most recent start. Combining this one positive and two negative stats your shortlist would have found the winner in 70% of the races from just 27% of the total runners. Another negative worth using when eliminating runners is horses aged 7 or more.

Conclusion – Chief Editor, Borderlescott and Amour Propre are the obvious three for the trends pick.

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Racing Tip

NEWBURY 2.50

EBF/THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATION
MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE FINAL (A HANDICAP)
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  2m6f110y

7/2 Jaunty Flight, 5/1 Lamanver Homerun, 13/2 Rate Of Knots, 15/2 Shatabdi, 10/1 Katess, 12/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Pyleigh Lady, 33/1 Ceoperk, 50/1 Ruby Dante.

This is a Mares Chase around 22f. Its a Novice handicap and  messy statistically as it was formerly run at Uttoxeter and it hasn’t always been open to Novices so its very unsafe. It does have a long history though and what they show is this. They imply that a horse with a high weight may struggle as horses with 11st 3lbs or more had a poor 1-36 record in the last 14 renewals. That is a worry for LAMANVER HOMERUN

Horses aged under 7 in this race had a 0-29 record and Thats a statistic that could fall and it may well be the one trend that will determine If I get this race right.

We have AIMIGAYLE – KATESS  -  RATE OF KNOTS aged
six in this race. I was tempted by AIMIGAYLE but I decided to oppose these three horses aged 6. What swings it for me is that none of them are foaled before March 21st in the year they were officially born which technically means they are all not yet 6 year olds until a month or so so whilst I may have risked a horse aged 6 that was almost 7 these three are really just 5 year olds about to become 6 despite them being offically six year olds. RATE OF KNOTS is the least experienced and almost all past winners had more experience than she does.

I’d suggest RUBY DANTE and CEOPERK are too old as no past
winners were aged 9 or more. I’d be more interested in SHATABDI had she had a more recent run and ran better in that race.

Overall perhaps the best profile belonged to JAUNTY FLIGHT
and she won the mares hurdle final last year at this meeting. She has a superb profile and on soft ground she would be a confident bet. However this is not soft. Its good bordering on fast. They say JAUNTY FLIGHT wants soft ground and his form suggests that. He is from a sire (Busy Flight) that has 23 national hunt winners. All 23 came on ground that was soft. Those that ran on good or faster ground were 0-90 so you have to worry that JAUNTY FLIGHT may find the ground too fast. I would still save on him as his profile is brilliant. PYLEIGH LADY has a serious chance as well and I like her profile and 25/1 is far too
big a price. Because of the ground PYLEIGH LADY is my bet

SELECTION – PYLEIGH LADY E/W  14/1 at many places including Betfred , Ladbrokes, Bet365

Advice provided by The Mathematician

To Visit His site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

Saturday Racing Tip for Wolverhampton

WOLVERHAMPTON  3.30

William Hill LINCOLN TRIAL (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-105) 1m141y

4/1 Flipando, 11/2 Flowing Cape, 8/1 Capricorn Run,
9/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Mahadee, 10/1 Whitcombe Minister,
12/1 Bolodenka, 12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Flawed Genius,
14/1 Nightjar, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Samarinda, 33/1 Raptor.

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* This race has been ran 12 times before
* Most winners were lightly raced aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 4 and 5 won 11 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – CAPRICORN RUN -ACE OF HEARTS
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -FLIPANDO – LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses that didnt run within 2 weeks were 0-53
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – ACE OF HEARTS – EXTRATERRESTRIAL
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-39
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – MAHADEE – SAMARINDA – LUCKY DANCE
* This race usually goes to either a seasonal debutant
* Or a horse with 2 or more runs since January 1st
* Every past winner came from a handicap (Others 0-38)
* SAMARINDA
* None of the winners came from 6f or shorter
* NIGHTJAR – FLOWING CAPE fail that
* There has been 322 Class 2 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 322 races anywhere and any time of year
* In 322 races horse from 6f races won just 2
* They had a 2-106 record and both winners had long breaks
* Those that ran within 10 weeks were 0-80
* Based on these trends I would shortlist the following

MAHADEE
WHITCOMBE MINISTER
FLAWED GENIUS

* MAHADEE fails one trend above
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 were 0-39 in this race
* Ignore that statistic for this horse
* He is only just exposed with 21 career starts
* His Saddle slipped last time and he was heavily eased
* MAHADEE comes from a 7f race at Lingfield
* The 2007 and 2008 winners of this came from that race
* MAHADEE has every chance of making that 3 in a row
* WHITCOMBE MINISTER is interesting
* He’s a similar profile to 2002 winner Dayglow Dancer
* The one worry is he comes from 12f
* That was last year though and he is unexposed
* FLAWED GENIUS is another with a fine chance

SELECTION

Given the seasonal debutants are 4 year olds I have
to go with MAHADEE each way coming from the best trial
race but the best saver may be Whitcombe Minister

Mahadee is currently 9/1 Ladbrokes, stan james and William Hill

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN – NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won – the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO – POSSOL – FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION – UNGARO Each Way 14/1 BSquare

centrebet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however .
It looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Guy
———————
Visit Guys Site Click Here ===> Free Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Analysis from RacingTrends

Main Account Bets – Haajes (4.45 Ling) – take 6/1 (Corals, Sky bet, sporting bet) WIN

Firstly some 15 year trends for three of the big races today:

1.05 Ascot Reynoldstown Chase

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 9 winning favourites from 15 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £8.48 (ROI +56.5%).
Market: There were 4 winning second favourites, so 13 of the 15 came from the top 2 in the market.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out have an excellent combined record with 9 wins from just 19 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £11.68 (ROI +61.5%). Indeed, if you focus on last time winners at those courses the record improves to 8 wins from just 15 qualifiers for a profit of £12.68 (ROI +90.6%).
Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have produced 13 of the 15 winners.
LTO winners: 14 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Career wins: Horses with 4 or more career wins produced 11 of the last 15 winners.
Racing Post Ratings: The top rated horses fromRacing Post ratings (formerly Postmark) has found the winner on 7 occasions.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 32 qualifiers.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have produced 0 winners from 20.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 7 year olds have produced

8 winners from 38 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 8 year olds plus have produced 2 winners

from 37 qualifiers (SR 5.4%).

Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some very strong positive pointers. 13 of the last 15 winners have been one of the top two in the betting market so this is a definite starting point with preference to favourites who have an outstanding record. From there look for last time out winners, although it is likely that the top two in the market would have won LTO. Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out would be the next port of call considering their excellent record. Finally, it should be noted that the last 28 horses aged 8 or older have lost, so it is best to concentrate on younger horses (7yo or younger with slight preference to 5 and 6yos).

Conclusion – Breedsbreeze the favourite at a best priced 5/4 looks a solid trends horse.

2.55 Haydock Rendlesham Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Days since last run: Horses that return to the track within 2 weeks have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. The winners included all 3 horses that won the race at 10/1 or bigger (10/1, 12/1, 100/1).
Race type LTO: Horses that ran in a handicap last time out won 7 races, and last time out winners from handicaps have won 3 from 10.
Price: 10 of the last 15 winners were priced 4/1 or bigger last time out.
French breds: 5 of the last 7 winners have been French bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a surprisingly poor record with 1 win from 17 for a loss of £13.50 (ROI -79.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)

from 16 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.87 (ROI -9.8%).

Market: The top 3 in the betting provided 10 of the last 15 winners.
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have won just 1 from 23, but the price of the

winner was 100/1.

Class LTO: 7 of the 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO. 8 of the 15 winners raced

in a higher or the same class LTO.

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 3 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 8 year olds have won 4 from 24 qualifiers (16.7%); 9 years olds plus have produced 4 winners from 29 qualifiers (SR 13.9%).

Trends analysis: the market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. However, any horse returning to the track within 2 weeks is worth close scrutiny, and with 3 fairly decent priced winners from this stat, this is where some value may be found.Horses that ran in a handicap last time have a better record than one would think and the handful who won that handicap LTO have definitely been worth noting. Horses that were 4/1 or bigger last time out have provided 66.7% of the winners – statistically this figure is normally only 40% in this grade type/grade so this is a stat worth checking out. French breds have a good recent record and any such runner demands respect. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

Conclusion – nothing really stands out trends wise and from a form perspective the race does look at match between the top 2 in the market.

2.40 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that ran at Sandown last time out have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. Backing all runners would have produced a small profit of £2.13 (ROI +9.3%).
Age: 6 year olds have a good record with 7 wins from 29 qualifiers including 4 of the last 5 winners of this race. 7 years old have a fairly good record also with 4 wins from 23.
Racing Post: Racing Post Ratings (old Postmark) have had their top rated horse win 6 times out of the last 11 races. Topspeed in the Racing Post has an even better recent record with 7 wins from the last 11 top rated horses.
Recent win: 11 of the last 15 winners won at least once in their last three races.
Position LTO: 9 of the last 15 winners won or finished 2nd LTO. They have provided 60% of the winners from 38% of the total runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: Only 1 out of 7 “odds against” favourites has won (Inglis Drever at 11/10 in 2005).
Age: Horses aged 8 or older have produced just 1 winner from 28 for a loss of £11.00 (ROI -39.3%).
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 29.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors, or horses that have worn them at some stage in their career have produced 0 winners from 19.
Beaten favourites: Beaten favourites last time out have a poor record with just 1 win from 10.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 7 winning favourites from 15, but a loss would have been made backing all of them to the tune of £2.57 (ROI -17.1%).

Trends analysis: from the positive stats perspective, preference should be for 6yos, then 7yos. Also monitor closely the selections of Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed. When they have agreed on the top rated selection they have provided 5 winners from just 9 runners. A recent win is a plus (last three starts), while it is best to ignore any runner that is or has done in the past worn blinkers or a visor.

Conclusion – not a particularly strong trends race but Whiteoak looks to fit the trends best.Having said that it looks a tough ask after a long break on not ideal ground.

Other races

1.55 Haydock – good competitive contest this.

Miko De Beauchene – Did well last season, following up Welsh National success with win in this race from a 8lblower mark. Could go well at decent odds on ground he handles.

Opera Mundi – Has a mixed record, but on soft / heavy it reads: 21112163. Solid chance.
Mon Mome – Back to his best this season when winning at Cheltenham in December. Seemed to have put last season which was poor behind him. Excuses in Welsh National next time (race probably came too quick); handles ground and a player. Record on soft/heavy reads 2U3612114224382.
Cornish Sett – in good form last 2 starts including runner-up in Welsh National from this handicap mark.

Nenuphar Collonges – record on soft/heavy reads 61212217. Should go well with a good round of jumping.

Rambling Minster – Won for eighth time in career at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Up in the weights in a stronger race is the concern.

CharacterBuilding – decent chance on best form. Cheekpieces may help; McCoy will help more.

Eric’s Chram – Front-runner who has fair form but his jumping can be sloppy and that will be a problem.
Glasker Mill – slight concern about the trip but should not be dismissed.
Sherwoods Folly – fifth in Welsh National last time and should be on the premises if able to reproduce that sort of effort here.
Beat The Boys – won 4 times as a novice last year. Form of the yard still a bit suspect so passed over.
D’Argent – stable second string but trip will suit.
Nadover – potentially well weighted and goes on heavy. Soft/heavy record reads:

5421113P713737. Not out of it.
CarnivalTown – handicap mark looks a bit harsh at present.
L’Aventure – quirky type who I’d always rather be against than for.

Conclusion – very open race. My two against the field would be Mon Mome and Opera Mundi.

Onto the all weather:

3.30 Kempton – Wotashirtfull is around even money in this 3 runner sprint. He should win.

3.35 Lingfield – Majuro looks the value option here in an open little affair.

4.05 Kempton – Millfield and Tous Les Deux head the market and these definitely look the two most likely winners. Tous Les Deux would just get my vote.

4.10 Lingfield – Quick Single at around 5/1 may be a bit of value in this maiden.

4.45 Lingfield – Haajes looks overpriced in this good sprint. He is nearer a 4/1 chance on my tissue and so at 6/1 he rates as a bet.
www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Racing

Saturday January 24th

No Account Bet

1 Multiple Selection

Suggested Stake Totals £20

Cheltenham 2.35 – Tidal Bay
Cheltenham 3.45 – Big Bucks
Doncaster 3.25 – Big Fella Thanks

3  Each Way Doubles
1  Each Way Treble

Advised stakes on selections are £20 compared to
Account bets at £100. Todays stake totals £20 so
I would be looking at suggesting Three each way
doubles at £2.50 each and a £2.50 each way treble.
That comes to £20 and goes down as one seperate
selection on the day. I have decided to go with a
rare multiple bet to small each way money as it is
a risky strategy but to a £20 stake like all selections
its will do for a tough saturday where we cant lose
much with small stakes yet could win plenty. I
would much rather find that elusive silver bullet
big priced win bet thats long overdue but you deal
with the cards you are dealt and thats where I am
going today. It was either this or a No Bet day.

The message is a few minutes late because of several
non runners which have needed editing. It is a really
interesting but complicated day with the frames of
several races changing by the minute. I quite like the
message. Its honest where it needs to be but there
is plenty commented on in a long message and I hope
its not one of those messages where the content turns
out to be better than the selections given at the top.

In terms of selections the only Lingfield horse I did
consider for a bet was HAMMER in the 12.50pm
but he may be a better each way double horse and
I dont think I have made the case for him enough.

I have tried to tackle some of the big handicaps at
Doncaster. These races looked too hard earlier on
but plenty of non runners have eased congestion
in these races and BIG FELLA THANKS appeals
in the 3.25pm race but I dont know whether the
reduced field after 11 withdrew from it leaves it
safe enough to go with this horse in what’s still a
tough and competetive handicap.

Two races at Cheltenham stand out. The world and
his brother want to bet on the big each way gamble
BIG BUCKS in the 3.45pm and I understand why.
There is pressure on the price around 7/2 and it does
seem everyone sees it as a solid each way bet and he
probably is and I would have to argue BIG BUCKS
each way is a decent bet much as far too many people
seem to agree and it does pick itself. I also like the
Letherby and Christopher at 2.35pm and feel that
TIDAL BAY is the each way bet in the race and I
am seriously considering him as my Gold Cup horse
in March at Cheltenham. He isnt bomb proof because
of the stamina issues but he is one of my better bets
today and I like him a lot in todays race.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Todays Message starts off with six previews on the sand
at LINGFIELD. If the results and how the races were run
yesterday did not prove it once and for all you have to see most races at LINGFIELD as just lucky dip races. You can not trust this place at all and most races here that I preview are written with a very high level of scepticism in the belief that its a diabolical track for big stakes and whatever you think you know here its not as much as you need to know and the track is so dangerous any confidence can quickly be sapped away. After we see whether LINGFIELD will burn our fingers the message then moves to previews of some DONCASTER races. After that its some CHELTENHAM previews so the message isn’t in time order after the Lingfield previews it just runs straight through all of Doncaster and then all of Cheltenham. Because of the inspection I have had no chance to look at Uttoxeter’s card.

L  I  N  G  F  I  E  L  D

LINGFIELD 12.50

100/30 One Zero, 4/1 Flanders Fields, 5/1 Dusk,
5/1 Hammer, 5/1 Regal Angel, 8/1 Lucky Dancer,
8/1 Quite A Fella, 66/1 Lukatara.

SELECTION – HAMMER

This is a maiden race over 12f and its complicated as both
ONE ZERO and FLANDERS FIELDS have foreign form and no English form. Since Lingfield started racing on sand
back in 1990 they have ran 59 all aged maidens over this
distance. This is the 60th maiden race here. Look at the
record of fillies like ONE ZERO in the 59 races. Between
January and March fillies had a 0-103 record. At all times
of years Fillies aged 4 or more like ONE ZERO failed to
win any in a 0-114 record. Fillies with under 3 runs won
just 1 of the 58 past races (1-114) and no filly won when
having under 2 runs that season (0-149). All this suggests
that ONE ZERO has to be opposed. The problem then is
what on earth with. DUSK is a bit of a “problem horse”
and I havent found a similar winner like him but I wouldnt
dismiss him at all. QUITE A FELLA , LUCKY DANCER
and FLANDERS FIELDS are all impossible to rate and It
wouldnt be a shock if any won. Horses like HAMMER
have very strong records and its hard to see many beating
him. He has just come second in a similar race over this
course and distance. His previous 5th in a handicap where
the lowest rated horse was 71 stands out in this race. He’s just finished ahead of REGAL ANGEL and although he
has a chance to reverse that form REGAL ANGEL might
bounce as that was his first run in 2 seasons and this is not much recovery time. I would have to argue that the best
or at least most reliable option is HAMMER

SELECTION – HAMMER

**********************************************
**********************************************

LINGFIELD 1.25

6/4 Thief Of Time, 9/2 Misyaar, 11/2 Capeability, 7/1
Green Dynasty, 8/1 Pyrus Time, 12/1 Strategic Knight,
16/1 Squad, 20/1 Crag Path, 25/1 Tropical Bachelor, 33/1
Prix Masque, 50/1 Dead Cat Bounce, 66/1 Ensnare.

This is a maiden over 8f and some decent horses from some
powerful stables throw up a trappy race and the market will
offer more insight than me. CAPEABILITY was expensive
and could be interesting in this race but you are dealing with horses you can not accurately rate and you have to guess. I suppose I would argue MISYAAR looks weak as a filly that was well beaten recently and I havent found many like her win similar races. STRATEGIC KNIGHT shouldnt be able to concede the weight if his purchase price is a reflection of his ability. THIEF OF TIME is clearly the obvious one and his stable seem in good spirits but if I backed him I would want him in an each way double because I dont see any great reason why he should be far shorter than some. You should let the market guide you but I would either go with THIEF OF TIME in an each way double or look
for an each way single on a well backed alternative that
the market hopefully suggests. No selection is possible
that wouldnt be a guess but CAPEABILITY did look
interesting and could give the favourite some trouble.

**********************************************
**********************************************

LINGFIELD 2.00

9/2 Leading Edge, 5/1 Billy Red, 5/1 Capefly, 5/1 Catalan Bay, 11/2 Forest Dane, 8/1 Milton Of Campsie, 8/1 Upstairs, 10/1 Distinctly Game.

This 6f Sprint Handicap looks pretty vile. All I would say her is CAPEFLY may not be fit with just 1 run since April 2008 and being a filly as well she wouldnt be my choice. Neither is UPSTAIRS who wouldnt interest me down from 8f to 6f and from a sire thats 0-50 at distances short of 7f. The Australian horse CATALAN BAY is a total mystery without a run over here or anywhere for 294 days and unless there was a big market move I’d be inclined to leave him alone. These 3 are not negatives more so just horse I want to avoid on a Hunch. If I could add 2
more to this list MILTON OF CAMPSIE comes with too many
doubts and I cant find a similar race won by a similar horse so I’d not want him either. DISTINCTLY GAME doesnt look a horse  about to win so I think you’d be best concentrating on these 3 – LEADING EDGE- BILLY RED – FOREST DANE. If I went with a selection it would be no more than a guess and its a race I have no more than weak trends and half baked hunches in.

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LINGFIELD 2.30

13/8 Trafalgar Square, 9/2 Autumn Blades, 11/2 Compton’s
Eleven, 8/1 Randama Bay, 12/1 Mr Lambros.

This is a 7f handicap and its not been made any easier by the fact there are just 5 runners. The weakest runners from a fitness point of view are COMPTON´S ELEVEN who is 8 years old absent 66 days and AUTUMN BLADES absent 7 weeks. I didnt want an 8 year old like MR LAMBROS up in distance.
I would be nervous about the trip for RANDAMA BAY so
I would argue the market has it reasonably accurate and the
most likely winner has to be TRAFALGAR SQUARE.

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LINGFIELD 3.05

3/1 Halsion Chancer, 7/2 Den’s Gift, 9/2 Just Bond, 6/1 Art Man, 8/1 Mister New York, 8/1 Sofia’s Star, 16/1 Solent Ridge, 20/1 Glencalvie, 25/1 Bee Stinger.

This is a handicap over a mile is for 0-85 rated horses. The main talking point is a massive gamble on SOLENT RIDGE
from 16/1 down to 4/1. That sends shockwaves through the
race. I cant see a case for BEE STINGER. I am also against
SOFIA´S STAR beaten in a 7f claimer and up in distance as
well. GLENCALVIE doesnt look fit enough for an 8 year old.
I cant find a similar race won by a horse that came from a 10f handicap in Class 2 as ART MAN does and as he looks like a mile may be too short for him I would not want to select him. DEN´S GIFT wouldnt be my first pick as he has a 61 day break and his record shows he does not have an edge over the handicapper to counteract his absence. That said DEN’S GIFT is from a yard who have won with their last 4 winners and in similar races plenty of horses win with absences like he has and I wouldnt make him a  negative. I’d rather pick something else. I dont have a big issue with HALSION CHANCER but he wouldnt be my selection in the race. Seems strange that in a 23 race career that spand races from 5f to 10f that he has
never run at either 8f or 8f before and whether this trip is his best or not has to be open to doubt. JUST BOND has a fair chance and so to must MISTER NEW YORK. It may be
significant MISTER NEW YORK comes from a 0-104 to
a 0-84 race. Its a nice drop in class and he is as interesting as many in an open race. In terms of the gamble in this race  SOLENT RIDGE we have 358 similar races to judge horses like him. SOLENT RIDGE is a 4 year old absent 94 days. In 358 races if you take 4 year olds absent 10 weeks or more you find a 12-225 record. That shows they can and do win and all 12 were unexposed as he is. Considering he is unexposed – and well handicapped – and the market move suggests you have to ignore his poor form in the last half of last season I cant argue against him and have to give SOLENT RIDGE a chance in this race much as it is a gamble thats left 4/1 looking very short when 16/1 was the paper price. Money tends to talk on the sand and as he has been so well backed he has to be considered.

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LINGFIELD 3.40

2/1 Lady Jane Digby, 9/4 Australia Day, 9/2 Kandidate,
7/1 Baylini, 10/1 Internationaldebut, 20/1 Formation.

This is a Class 2 handicap over 10f. This is for horses rated 0-103 so its very hard to see FORMATION who has just
been beaten in claimers winning. The race should revolve
around whether KANDIDATE is fit enough. He has not
run in 152 days and is a 7 year old and thats a big worry
but he always run well after a long break and he has far better form than some of these. His highest rated danger is the 97 rated INTERNATIONALDEBUT but I’d be against him
coming from 7f to 10f. If AUSTRALIA DAY has a flaw it
may be that he is a bit underraced and may not be as sharp
as some but thats a dangerous assumption. The solid recent
class 2 handicap form come from the only females in the
race LADY JANE DIGBY and BAYLINI who were 1st and
2nd  in the same race last week. They are serious runners but the race revolves around whether KANDIDATE will be fit
enough to outclass these rivals and that is a tough decision to make. You could argue KANDIDATE could be the
pick and LADY JANE DIGBY a saver at the odds but It
is not a race I feel I can open up well enough to commit to.

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D  O  N  C  A  S  T  E  R

No compelling angles in the Novice Chase at 12.35am and
as there are just 5 runners I dont want to get involved. The mares race at 1.05pm is at the mercy of Chomba Womba
certainly on the ratings of the race. I wouldnt want a short priced bets in bad ground but she is hard to oppose and as there are hardly any similar races to draw any angles from  I will leave the race alone.

DONCASTER 1.40

5/1 Charmaine Wood, 8/1 Character Building, 8/1 Halla San,
8/1 Prideus, 12/1 Kack Handed, 14/1 Imtihan, 14/1 Laredo
Sound, 14/1 Pocket Aces, Serhaaphim, 16/1 Smugglers Bay,
25/1 Currahee, 25/1 Oscardeal, 25/1 Realism.

This 19f handicap hurdle has to go in the “too difficult”
department with 7 runners. We have had 145 of these
handicaps in January. Horses that come from either 16f
or 17f novice hurdles like CHARMAINE WOOD does
have a 0-40 record and that would be a worry for her
especially as she is also a female and no female came
from a novice race to win any of the 145 races. Also
failing that is KACK HANDED another up in distance
having come from a novice hurdle.  If you take all the
similar handicap hurdles with at least 14 runners like
this one in January you find exposed horses are 0-100
but sadly only Imtihan fails that. I would take out all
the rank outsiders as well. CHARACTER BUILDING
would not be my first choice coming from a chase. I
think its interesting that the last 4 winners had just
7-8-7-6 previous hurdle starts. Thats the sort of range
you want and why I would nominate PRIDEUS as
possibly the strongest looking runner statistically.

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DONCASTER 3.25

SKY BET CHASE HANDICAP (LISTED RACE) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 According To Pete, Big Fella Thanks, 6/1 Alexanderthegreat, 8/1 Laskari, 8/1 Montgermont, 12/1 Ungaro, 12/1 Verasi, Flying Enterprise, 20/1 Native Coral, 25/1 Lysander, 33/1 Crozan, 33/1 Irish Raptor,  50/1 Always Waining.

* This is a Listed class handicap chase over 3m
* There has been 14 renewals of this race
* Two were run at Southwell and 12 at Doncaster
* Clearly a very competetive chase but there are angles
* I think you want a lightly raced chaser
* These horses have dominated in recent years
* Since 2000 past winners had the following chase starts
* 5 – 10 – 3 – 10 – 5 – 6 – 9 – 3 – 4
* I would be wary about exposed horses
* The Angles in this race show exposed chasers vulnerable
* Horses with 21 career starts need 4 + runs this year
* Those that did not had a 0-46 record
* They were also considerably better with lightweights
* I would oppose the following 9 horses
* They all look overexposed and underraced this season
* UNGARO-  VERASI – FLYING ENTERPRISE
* ALEXANDERTHEGREAT  – CROZAN
* LYSANDER – IRISH RAPTOR
* ALWAYS WAINING is exposed and I dislike that
* He also has a big weight and ran poorly last time
* My biggest issue with MONTGERMONT is the trip jump
* I dont like horses coming from 2m 4f as he effectively does
* Horses aged 11 or more with 1 run this season are poor
* NATIVE Coral fails that and I see him a vulnerable
* Horses with 1 or 2 runs this season are best if lightly raced
* Those that had 13 + runs and just 1 or 2 runs that year were 0-53
* NATIVE Coral fails that

SHORTLIST

* These 3 horses came out strongly statistically

BIG FELLA THANKS
ACCORDING TO PETE
LASKARI

* LASKARI is fine but doesnt look thrown in
* Not convinced about ground or trip with him
* ACCORDING TO PETE comes from a novice chase
* Thats fine and he has a reasonable profile
* My only worries here are his stiff weight and handicap mark
* Horses with 11st 6lbs + in this race are just 2-48
* A Handicap mark of 146 is a tough task for him
* I share the view its a tough weight for him
* I prefer BIG FELLA THANKS
* BIG FELLA THANKS is unexposed and the right type
* He has a sound chance if he jumps well
* BIG FELLA THANKS is my selection

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Just a quick word about the Bumper at 4pm

DONCASTER 4.00

SKYBET.COM  “JUNIOR” STANDARD OPEN
NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 5) (4yo) 1m5f

11/4 Artist’s Moon, 6/1 Baligha, 6/1 Sure Josie Sure, 8/1
Good Faloue, 10/1 Den Maschine, 10/1 Donny Briggs, 10/1
Just Pickles, 11/1 Young Buddy, 12/1 Steel Giant, 16/1
Letshaveago, 16/1 Switched Off, 20/1 Can’t Remember,
20/1 Lilla Sophia, 33/1 Avanos, 33/1 Turfenmill, 40/1
Best Of The West, 40/1 Gospel Spirit, 50/1 Jazzaria,
66/1 Handtheprizeover, 66/1 Par Avion, 66/1 Shadow
Boxer, 66/1 Suzis Gift.

There has only ever been 26 Bumper races for 4 year olds
run before. Thats 26 races at any track-distance – and any
time of year. In these 26 races Unraced Fillies have never
won anything and have a 0-39 record and thats why I’d
want to avoid SURE JOSIE SURE and BALIGHA from
the fancied runners as well as Letshaveago , Lilla Sophia, Par Avion and Can’t Remember. Clearly the Henderson
horse ARTIST’S MOON has a big chance and in the 26
races this trainer has a 2-5 record with unraced horses.
I think GOOD FALOUE may be better value and a filly
with 1 race has won this race before and they score well
if they placed in that sole race.  AVANOS has been a big
gamble and must be considered. Its a guessers race so lets
no kid ourselves but if I was playing in the race I would
see it between GOOD FALOUE – AVANOS and the favourite ARTIST’S MOON.

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C H E L T E N H A M

The opening Novice hurdle is hijacked by an odds on shot
in DIAMOND HARRY who I wouldnt want to oppose. Whilst his main rivals all come here having won a novice hurdle easily DIAMOND HARRY has just won a Grade 1 easily and looks pretty hard to oppose in a race where we cant really do much with as there is a small field.

CHELTENHAM 1.30

100/30 Tricky Trickster, 4/1 Hennessy, 4/1 Ping Pong Sivola, 7/1 Kilcrea Asla, 8/1 Galant Nuit, 10/1 Quws Law, 12/1 French Saulaie, 14/1 Andrew Nick, 14/1 Camden George, 25/1 Monzon.

The Novice Handicap Chase throws together several that
are the right type that have been winning this race which
is a shame. You want a lightly raced chaser ideally having
his first season over fences. You want a horse that ran at
19f or more last time and a horse that was 1-2-3-4 in that
race and Camden George , Andrew Nick and Momzon are
the only horse that fail those angles. That makes it a tough race with few meaningful statistical angles. Nigel Twiston Davies has been struggling and throwing many arrows at the drat board and just because he had a 14/1 winner the other day I,m not convinced you want to be on runners from this yard so TRICKY TRICKSTER wouldnt be my
choice. QUWS LAW may not want this track and I would
not select him either. The best trainer record belongs to
Venetia Williams as her runners in this race have a decent
W 2 W 2 4 F F record so PING PONG SIVOLA has to be
considered much as he lacks Cheltenham form. This is a
race where too many have chances for me and none come
from a recognised trial race so I dont see an edge. Forced
for a selection I would go with PING PONG SIVOLA

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CHELTENHAM 2.05

6/1 Akilak, 6/1 Stan, 7/1 Battlecry, 10/1 Moon Over Miami, 10/1 Pablo Du Charmil, 10/1 Private Be, 10/1 The Sawyer,
10/1 Turko, 12/1 Reveillez, 16/1 Lidjo De Rouge, 16/1 Mister McGoldrick, 16/1 Too Forward, 25/1 Bring Me Sunshine, 33/1 Foreman.

This is a 2m 5f Novice Handicap Chase and there has
been 13 renewals. I would be looking to take on STAN
on bad ground and BATTLECRY on his stableform and
the trip and ground. TURKO is all over several columns
in several papers. This is a horse thats never been right
statistically for any race he has ran in recently not least
the Grand National when far too young. I can see a
case why many fancy him and it wouldnt shock me if
he won but I’ve put his profile in all 40 novice handicap
chases around this trip and none had his profile so I am
not going to select him.  MOON OVER MIAMI isnt
for me as his sire is 0-48 beyond 2m 4f and he has to
step up in trip and no past winner of this race did that.
TOO FORWARD is too old for me. REVEILLEZ is
out with a long absence.  If I was shortlisting I would
see THE SAWYER and AKILAK as the best profiles.

SELECTION – THE SAWYER
SAVER – AKILAK

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CHELTENHAM 2.35

LETHEBY & CHRISTOPHER CHASE
(REGISTERED AS THE COTSWOLD CHASE)
GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m1f110y

5/2 Halcon Genelardais, 11/4 Star De Mohaison, 5/1 Nozic,
5/1 Tidal Bay, 8/1 Roll Along, 14/1 Snoopy Loopy, 16/1 Joe
Lively, 33/1 Ollie Magern.

SELECTION – TIDAL BAY Each Way

The Letherby and Christopher chase is a Grade 2 chase
over 25f. Nice small field. In the 2007 renewals of this
race I opposed HALCON GENELARDAIS as I did not think he would recover from a gruelling slog in the welsh
national and he flopped. This year he again comes from
the welsh national where he finished 3rd with a massive
weight and a hard race. I have to oppose him again this
year as that takes so much recovering from. In the 2007
message I listed every horse since 1994 that was 1-2-3-4
in the Welsh National and that came out within a month
as HALCON GENELARDAIS does. I wont repeat the analysis today but you can read it on the message board
in 2007′s message. This analysis shows the complete
record of horses placed at Chepstow and it shows the
vast majority run badly next time. The only horses that
overcame that Chepstow run had excuses. Eudipe did it
in 1998 but he was lucky as a clear leader fell at the last handing him the race. Hedgehunter also did it but as we now know he went on and won the Grand National and
came second in the Gold Cup. This is a small field  and
HALCON GENELARDAIS may go and win but given his very hard race at Chepstow I expect it to be too much for him as it was in 2007. HALCON GENELARDAIS is also unpenalised and the history of this race suggests you want a penalised horse. This leaves me thinking an each way alternative is best. I do not want to consider JOE LIVELY either as he was only beaten 10 lengths in the welsh national and this could come too soon. I cant really consider the outsider OLLIE MAGERN at the moment and SNOOPY LOOPY may well have run his best races already this season.  ROLL ALONG has a fair chance and a reasonable profile but he has only
had 6 chase starts and thats less than all past winners
of this race. Nicholls runs two horses in NOZIC and
STAR DE MOHAISON in this race. You can argue
STAR DE MOHAISON is unpenalised in this race and most winners of this race were penalised. You can also argue STAR DE MOHAISON may not want the ground as bad as it is and Ruby Walsh is on NOZIC. Paul Nicholls says he prefers STAR DE MOHAISON but its a close call. On paper NOZIC has just a good a chance but you can also argue that NOZIC could well bounce having had just one proper race since last March when winning 4 weeks ago. That day NOZIC
beat TIDAL BAY (2nd) in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby but he was getting plenty of weight. Back at level weights today you would expect TIDAL BAY to beat NOZIC but you have to worry about stamina and will TIDAL BAY stay the tough extended 25f at Cheltenham on soft ground. I think he will. There are no concerns on his breeding for me. He’s just run over 25f at Wetherby. Whilst you would expect this race to take longer to run Raceform standard times suggest this is less of a stamina test. Personally I dont trust that at all and think I may have been put away but regardless of that TIDAL BAY has shown he stays close enough to this distance to give him every chance. What really swings it for me is my Cheltenham Gold Cup stats. I
looked at these the other day and surprised myself. I
have very rigid Gold cup stats that have been accurate
and succesful over recent years. They show that almost
all recent winners fit a rigid profile. This year they are
telling me that I can respect Barbers Son if he comes
out and runs well. They tell me if the ground is fast
I have to consider Albertas Run. They also tell me that
if he runs well today TIDAL BAY has a bomb proof
profile for a Gold Cup and if he does then he it would
be more likely than not that TIDAL BAY is going to
be my Cheltenham Gold Cup horse this year. If thats
the case he has to be very appealing here at 7/1 and I
think he will win this. You can argue that he may not
stay because his 2 mile form is so good its unlikely
he has the stamina. You can take the opposite view
and argue he has so much Class that his 2 mile form
was achieved “In spite” of the the minimum distance
just as we found with Kauto Star after he win a Tingle
Creek. If the latter is true and his 2m form was down
to his class and not his true ideal conditions then you
may well be watching the Gold Cup winner in this
race. Thats why TIDAL BAY is my selection in this
race and why he is currently my most likely selection
to win at Cheltenham in March in the Gold Cup

SELECTION – TIDAL BAY Each Way

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CHELTENHAM  3.10

11/10 Walkon, 4/1 Reve De Sivola, 9/2 Higgy’s Boy, 13/2
Simarian, 12/1 Blues In Cee, 14/1 Pemberton, 20/1 Nampour.

The Finess hurdle is a 17f race for juveniles. Not a great
race for trends. WALKON has just won the best trial race
for this when he won the Champion Finale Juvenile Hurdle
run at Chepstow 4 weeks ago. That race has provided the
winner of this race in 2000-2001-2002-2004 and also last
years runner up. WALKON beat REVE DE SIVOLA into
3rd place with SIMARIAN back in 4th that day so we
have 3 horses coming from the best trial. Whats annoying
is just 7 runners making each way alternatives impossible.
I wouldnt want HIGGY’S BOY. Not only does he meet
3 runners from a good trial race he has ran just once and
thats a worry as no past winner of this race did that and
I have to see others as safer and as HIGGY’S BOY beat
BLUES IN CEE last time I have to presume he will lack
the ability to win as well.  PEMBERTON won a race on
the same day as the Best trial race but that was merely a
smaller contest and I didnt want him. I suspect the race
will be won by one that came from the Chepstow race
and REVE DE SIVOLA was finishing well in 3rd place
that day. The added distance may be a big help to him
and the fact he has ran at Cheltenham before and proven
himself unlike Walkon may suggest he is better value. I
would want 8 runners though to get excited about a bet.
For a mudane selection given the odds on offer I will go
with REVE DE SIVOLA in the hope the extra yardage
can help him beat WALKON who has every chance
as well. REVE DE SIVOLA for me at the odds.

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CHELTENHAM  3.45

10/11 Punchestowns, 7/2 Big Buck’s, 11/2 Fair Along,
10/1 Blazing Bailey, 12/1 Lough Derg, 25/1 No Refuge,
25/1 Pettifour, 66/1 Turpin Green.

SELECTION – BIG BUCKS each way 7/2

The Cleeve Hurdle is not be a race for meaningful trends
as it has moved from 2m 4f to a 3 mile race two years ago
and it’s been run at different tracks. Its further complicated as its a prep race for the Stayers Hurdle and many use the race as a warm up for the Festival. Both BIG BUCK’s and FAIR ALONG won 3m handicap hurdles at Cheltenham last time out. As BIG BUCKS did that more recently – and as he won a better class handicap – and carried more weight in doing that I would prefer BIG BUCKS to Fair Along but it is not easy to oppose PUNCHESTOWNS who has just won the Long Walk Hurdle beating both Blazing Bailey and Lough Derg. If PUNCHESTOWNS has a flaw here its bad ground and whether he can overcome that in this race. Paul Nicholls stated the other day he had entered and also backed BIG BUCKS for the Stayers Hurdle and he is 14/1 for that race behind the favourite PUNCHESTOWN. He also states
today that he considers BIG BUCKS his best bet today and
gives him every chance of winning this race. This and other
factors have resulted in a big each way plunge in this race on BIG BUCKS and all the 9/2 and 4/1 have been taken and 7/2 may be the best available price. Personally I agree that BIG BUCKS each way is the outstanding bet in the race and I have to follow that gamble in as well. I wouldnt object to 7/2 each way much as it would have been a bit nicer to have had better prices. I see that as the bet here

SELECTION – BIG BUCKS each way 7/2

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