Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Racing research boffin Dave Renham over at

has just sent out some interesting free research on this weekend’s

Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.

I have copied it here for you.


Cambridgeshire (3yo+)


Course – Newmarket
Distance – 1 mile 1 furlong
Date – September 28th
Average field size last 10 years – 32
Market Trends
Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12 for a break even situation.
Top three in betting: 4 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 6 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
LTO stats
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 16 days or less.
Position LTO: 1 win for horses that won LTO (from 54 runners). 
Position LTO: 4 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 123 runners.
LTO favourites: 2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 55 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 143 runners).
LTO price: Horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 71.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Newbury LTOhave provided 5 wins from 58. 
Official ratings (OR)
OR band
93 and below
100 and above
Other countries
Class change
Class change
Down in class
Same class
Up in class
Trainer stats
Trainers: 2 wins from 8 for John Gosden.
General stats
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 2 wins from 56.
Claiming jockeys: 2 wins from 49.
Recent win: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 149 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £25.00 (ROI +16.8%).
Handicap wins: Horses that had not won a handicap previously have provided 0 winners 53.
Course winners: Horses that have previously won at the course have provided just 1 winner from 55.
Conclusion – A race that averages 32 runners is going to be tough to unravel and whatever happens the trends can only be used to create a shortlist of candidates. A good starting point looks to be ignoring runners that raced in a non handicap LTO. They have had 0 winners in the last 10 years and they have made up 22% of the total runners. It also looks worth avoiding horses that have failed to win a handicap as well. From a positive perspective, horses that were priced between 9/1 and 20/1 LTO have a good record. They have provided 70% of the winners from only 37% of the total runners. There seems no significant age bias although 7yos+ are probably worth avoiding (0 wins and only 3 placed runners from 36). There has been little too in the draw.  

Best Wishes

Wokingham Handicap At Royal Ascot

This fairly detailed assessment of today’s Wokingham handicap

was provided via the free service at Dave Renham’s Horse Race Report site.


Wokingham Handicap Stats

Course – Ascot
Distance – 6 furlongs
Date – June 22nd 2013
Average field size last 10 years – 26
There was a dead heat in 2003 so there are 11 winners in total not 10.
Market Trends
Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a profit of £5.75 (ROI +57.5%).
Top three in betting: 6 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 7 wins for the top six in the betting (6 wins for top 4).
Price: Horses priced 6/1 or less have provided 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £10.75 (ROI +89.6%).
LTO stats
Days since last run: A real spread of wins and no clear angles.
Position LTO: 3 wins for horses that won LTO (from 45 runners). 
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: All 11 winners finished in the first six LTO.
LTO favourites: 4 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 41 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 6 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 87 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced 4/1 or shorter LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners from only 37 runners.
Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten over 5 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 86.
Official ratings (OR)
OR band
96 and below
102 and above
Draw (NB 9 of the 10 races were run at Ascot so only 9 races analysed – 10 winners)
Other countries
Class change
Class change
Down in class
Same class
Up in class
Trainer stats
Trainers: no trainer has won the race more than once in the last 10 years.
General stats
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 57.
Claiming jockeys: 1 win from 28.
Recent win: 4 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 102 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £75.25 (ROI -73.8%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 10 or less handicap runs have provided 10 winners from 119 runners (SR 8.4%); horses who have run in 11 or more handicaps have provided just 1 winner from 143 runners (SR 0.7%).
Career runs: Horses who have raced 15 times or less in their careers have won 9 races from 88 runners (SR 10.2%); horses who have raced 16 or more times in their career have won 2 races from 174 runners (SR 1.1%).
Conclusion – Interesting to see such a competitive handicap that averages 26 runners each year have 4 winners priced 6/1 or shorter. Having said that last year’s winner was 33/1 (the biggest priced winner in the 10 years). 4yos seem to have an edge and more lightly raced older runners also do well. A recent win within the last three starts would have incurred steep losses so that needs to be taken into account. Lower draws seem to have had the advantage, while it looks best to ignore any horse that was beaten more than 5 lengths LTO.


Wokingham Best Fit To Trends

For Current Live Odds see

The Wokingham with it’s large field size is obviously
not the easiest race to pick the winner in.

Working through my ten year race trends however
to find which horses are the best fit to the stats
would lead me to the following two

  • Duke of Firenze 8/1 generally
  • Nocturn 12/1 generally

A bit higher is available  on Betfair

For those of you who prefer each way note that several bookies are offering 5 places

Bet365 – sky – BoyleSportsPaddy Power – victor chandler




A Little More Info Today

With regards to the Ascot 5.00 Duke of Edinburgh

Key trends here are horses that were priced 8/1
or shorter LTO who are aged 5 or younger.
This narrows the field down by around 40%.
From there horses wearing headgear have an excellent record
and three of the initial shortlist are wearing some type of headgear:

  • Ustura
  • Silver Lime
  • Opinion

Hence this is my best trends based shortlist for the race with Opinion having the added advantage
of being trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has an good record in the race.

Best Wishes

A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at


There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw


* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected


CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower

Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free tip from Guy

What else would expect today .. its his Grand National Racing Tip


We got a small win last Saturday for you with Vintage Star

grabbing a place at 20/1 early advised price.

Today is of course Grand National Day.

It’s that annoying day when Friends and Family all hassle me to give

them a good Grand National Tip.

Can’t they pick an easier race with less runners?

Here are my thoughts however.

It is not a race I will be staking with serious cash personally.

More so following the house wives out there with a small interest bet.

John Smith’s Grand National Chase

(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

For live market odds see

The Grand National changes every year as do the statistics bit by bit to

accomodate the recent history. This year the Fences are again different.

Some are slightly lower and landings raised in places as it slowly

becomes an easier race. That doesnt help us as the more testing

and unique the race the better stats work.

* I think we should mainly ignore the weight statistics

* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall

* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years

* I would not get too hung up with weight though

* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st

* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs

* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1950

* I wont be ruling any horse out only on their weight

* It is a well known fact 7 year olds do badly

* It is now 72 years since one won and they are hard to bet

* ORGANISEDCONFUSION has to go as a 7 year old

* He is not 7 year as he doesnt become 7 until next month

* With just 3 runs this year it defies sense to bet him

* I am opposing these other 7 year olds


* On the other end of the scale avoid teenagers

* HELLO BUD is surely too old as a 14yo

* Horses aged 8 do not do as well as many think

* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds

* Only 1 of the last 18 winners were 8 year olds

* If betting an 8yo make sure it is at least an 8yo

* If Foaled after the day of this race they are not

* Those foaled in Mid april and beyond are not yet 8

* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere -the last 8yo winners

* They were all foaled early in the year

* They were all aged 8 and a few months

* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal

* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8

* They are just 7 and a few months old

* ON HIS OWN wasnt foaled until mid July

* That makes him only 7 and three quarters

* He is 6 months younger than most 8yo winners were

* He also has less Chasing experience than any winner

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE is 2 months short of being 8


* He wont be an 8yo for another 6 weeks

* He is short on Chasing experience and runs this year

* ALFA BEAT is not quite 8 years old yet

* TATENEN is one week short of his 8th birthday

* SMOKING ACES is also short of his 8th birthday

* Exposed horses struggle with few runs that season

* By exposed I mean those with 21 + National Hunt runs

* Those with 1-2-3 runs that season struggled

* They do in all Long distance Handicap Chases in April

* They have a dreadful record in all similar races

* Grey Abbey (Ayr 2004) had 36 runs and 3 that year

* Ballabriggs (Aintree 2011) had 21 runs and 3 that year

* I cant find any more exposed horses so underraced

* The more runs a horse has over 21

* The more runs he needs that season

* Be prepare to be lenient if a horse is close to passing it

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season

* 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

* You can see None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year

* It is 4m 4f and these types just dont seem fit enough

* I would be keen to opposed all horses with 1-2 runs

* STATE OF PLAY is 12 and hasnt run in 371 days

* He heads my list of horses that are underraced this year

* BALLABRIGGS only has 1 run this season

* With 11st 9lbs it looks a horrendous ordeal for him

* BLACK APALACHI is 13 and has just 1 run this year

* Only 2 Teenagers have won and none since 1923

* None have placed since 1969 and he surely wont win

* DEEP PURPLE has one full race and half a race

* He has under 2 runs this year when an exposed 11yo

* I see him a extremely underraced this season

* JUNIOR has ran just twice this season not a good sign

* He has had fewer chase starts than all past winners

* I see him underraced this year and unsafe

* He started racing on the Flat and few National winners do

* His Sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet

* PLANET OF SOUND has just 2 runs this season

* He is an exposed 10yo and I would want more runs

* WEST END ROCKER – He has only had 2 runs this year

* One of those was when he pulled up

* ARBOR SUPREME has similar problems

* Just 2 runs this year and a massive absence

* He has a longer absence than any winner in decades

* ON HIS OWN discussed earlier is also underraced

* IN COMPLIANCE is underraced this season

* MIDNIGHT HAZE is also underraced

* It is very important to have a recent race

* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks

* In fact every winner since 1981 ran within 50 days

* The last that did not was Aldaniti back in 1981

* I don’t want a horse absent much more than 60 days

* The last 21 winners were absent this many days

* 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25

* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups

* Horses 2nd in the National had these absence

* 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23

* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102

* 17 of the past 21 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

* I think STATE OF PLAY is absent too long


* The following are absent longer than ideal

* CALGARY BAY has been absent 77 days

* CALGARY BAY doesnt appeal much

* Not keen on his Track form either

* ON HIS OWN has been absent 79 days

* ANY CURRENCY has been absent 77 days

* Class is important in a National Winner

* 10 of the last 11 winners won in Listed Grade or higher

* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)

* He won in Class 2 races but hadnt been tested in higher

* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winer

* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival

* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight

* That was more than worthy or a Listed or Graded win

* 20 of the last 21 winners raced in Graded Class before

* The exception was again Ballabriggs (2011)

* The vast majority of the seconds also had Graded Form

* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced

* Exposed horses should really have past Graded Form

* Ballabriggs wouldnt have been exposed with just 1 less run

* One past race he didnt jump past the first fence

* He had really only had 20 career starts

* I would much prefer a horse with Graded Class form

* I’d argue the following horses lack the required class


* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance

* The previous 21 winners had the following Chase runs

* 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14

* 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14

* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994

* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts

* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner

* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups

* 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20

* 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8

* I’d be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts

* 8 of the last 11 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase starts

* I’d argue the following horses lack the right chase form

* CAPPA BLUE only has 6 Chase runs and fell in one of those

* That’s at least 3 less than every past winner

* JUNIOR has fewer chase starts than any recent winner

* SYNCHRONISED would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM also has the minimum

* PEARLYSTEPS would be the joint least experienced chaser

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE only has 7 Chase starts

* OUR ISLAND only has 7 Chase starts

* VIKING BLOND only has 5 Chase runs

* The following horses look to be too risky

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – Lacks the class and stamina

* ABBEYBRANEY looks out of his depth

* VIC VENTURI wont defy 62 days off as a 12yo

* SWING BILL wont get the trip

* MON MOME – I find it so hard to fancy him

* He is 12 and hasnt shown nearly enough this year

* WEIRD AL – If he ran his race he’d go close

* He surely is not man enough for this race

* SEABASS has a very unorthodox profile

* I hate the fact he comes from a 2m Chase

* Stamina must be a problem for him as well

* He hasnt won over 3m before under rules

* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet

* His sires record in Class 2 and higher is telling

* He hasnt had a winner in that class beyond 3m 2f

* Ruby Walsh has also turned the ride down

* SEABASS does not look safe enough

* TREACLE is an exposed 11yo

* Two of the last 19 winners could say the same

* Passes most angles he has to be considered

* What worries me most is his 146 handicap mark

* Seems harsh for a horse thats won only off 122 before

* Not overkeen on his 62 day absence either

* Thats longer than any winner since 1991

* Not sure he has the class to defy that absence and rating

* There were 5 winners coming from Cheltenham

* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup

* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup

* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)

* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race

* Don’t Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle

* No winners came from Cheltenham Aged 9

* SUNNYHILLBOY – Not convinced he is the right type

* We know no 9yo came from Cheltenham and won this

* No Cheltenham Festival winners have won here in decades

* None have got within 28 lengths of the winner

* SUNNYHILLBOY is also a small horse not ideal here

* Do we really want a Cheltenham festival winner ?

* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE ran at Cheltenham

* He ran well and was a good 2nd in the Kim Muir

* No 9 year olds won coming from Cheltenham

* It worries me has had won just 1 Chase race

* That was in a Beginners Chase back in 2010

* The last 19 winners had 3-7 Chase wins before

* He fell at the second fence in last years race

* He has now fallen in 3 of his 11 Chase races

* The last 12 winners all had a better completion record

* He hasnt won at 3 Miles yet but that doesnt worry me

* Overall I feel he has too many weaknesses

* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is an exposed 11yo

* I’d like a couple more runs this year

* I wasnt convinced he would get the trip either

* Not sure he has the legs especially with 11st 6lbs

* RARE BOB – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* His jumping here would be one concern

* The only time he fell before was at Aintree

* His only other race here was not without mistakes

* He will be vulnerable to improvers as well

* His profile demands he is respected

* My concerns is he may be too old fashioned

* Horses like him dont seem to win the race these days

* There must also be a stamina doubt

* The furthest he has raced has been 3m 5f

* After that race his trainer said he didnt stay

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB was favourite last year

* He had an awful profile so did well to finish 6th

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is 11 years old

* He was brought down at the 4th on his seasonal debut

* He has really only had 3 full runs this season

* Thats a bit short for an 11yo and it worries me

* He fails a few minor statistics I have

* The last 19 winners all had more Chase wins than him

* They also all had more Handicap Chase experience too

* I Could turn a blind eye to those statistics

* He has won 5 times under rules all on right handed tracks

* Fair to say his hardest races were on left handed tracks

* Its another niggling doubt though

* Interesting runner and if he wins it is explainable

* I’d have prefered another run this year and more promise

* SYNCHRONISED has just won the Gold Cup

* This will take a better performance should he win

* His last run may have taken too much from him

* Horses aged 9 like him coming from Cheltenham struggled

* He has to carry a big weight with only 9 Chase starts

* If winning he would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SYNCHRONISED – I suspect he has too much against him

* I certainly wouldnt make him a negative

* The weight in the ground after a hard race is a worry

* There is a big case for him being a Saver in my view

* GILES CROSS – I see him as an overall positive

* The ground has come right and he looks an improver

* There are a few reservations I have about him

* I would like another run or two this year

* I wouldnt be certain he would get the trip either

* The last half mile could be quite a test for him

* Will he cope with the stamina doubt and 3 runs this year

* Those 3 runs were all hard races as well

* No surprise if he won but I am not sold on him

* CAPPA BLUE – has some minor issues but one serious flaw

* The least experienced chaser had ran in 9 previous chases

* CAPPA BLUE has just 6 and Fell -Pulled up in 2 of those

* That said Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts

* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts

* CAPPA BLUE has to be considered because of that

* CHICAGO GREY – Plenty of positives in his profile

* Well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes

* I dont like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f Chase

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is not good

* I dont like the fact he comes from a Grade 2 Chase either

* Other than that there is a lot to like

* His trainer has a National Pedigree

* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race

* He certainly has the class and he is a big positive

* Reservations though in a number of areas

* He is lacking the Handicap Chase experience too

* KILLYGLEN – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* Maybe the type that used to win this race but no more

* It bothers me has finished in only 9 of his 14 chase starts

* It bothers me his form at 3m 3f and more is PU PU PU

* It bothers me he was 66/1 in last years race

* He hasnt always been happy in a big field as well

* Bothers me he hasnt won a handicap chase before

* All that aisde he sails through my angles

* Many trends observers have also come round to him

* Shortlisted but I have listed plenty of shortcomings

* ACCORDING TO PETE is an exposed 11yo

* Well raced this year there is a lot to like

* He is consistent and not badly treated at all

* He has never fallen in 14 Chase starts

* There are some problems. May like it softer

* He is not a big horse either and I dont like that

* He jumps well though and I see a strong runner here

* ALWAYS RIGHT has 11 runs all over fences

* This is quite a classy horse with tons of ability

* Obviously his PU PU form recent isnt easy on the eye

* He has had a wind operation to cure a problem causing it

* That may or may not work but the price compensates

* He is lightly raced yet has more than enough Chase runs

* That earns him a lot of respect

* At the prices he is one of the most interesting



My Grand National Tips

From the above I have opted to cover a few horses to small stakes

I have assumed a £10 total stake

* CHICAGO GREY 25/1 £4 Win

* CAPPA BLEU £3 Win 18/1

* ALWAYS RIGHT £1.50 win 40/1

* ACCORDING TO PETE £1.50 win 40/1

* I am betting 4 horses in the race

* These are all win bets

* All advised at Betfair prices which of course may fluctuate a bit.

( if you want to bet on the nose in large runner field Betfair is normally
the best spot )

If you prefer to bet each way you can see live odds at

It is worth noting different bookmakers paying out for different numbers of

Victor Chandler are the pick as they pay out 6 places

Good luck whether you follow me or use your magic pin to pick your own

Best Wishes


PS In case you missed it we have a short term cheap deal on full membership

Page will come down after the weekend.


Four Winning Saturdays In A Row?

Guy aka The Mathematician has given us three winning Saturday’s in a row here on Sports Betting Blog.  At circa start of Octover he also went on a short run of an 18/1 winner followed by a 6/1 winner.

Four in a  row is a big ask however.

Fingers crossed :)

Here is his free tip message for today.


I like LOYALTY’s chance a lot mainly because he
has a good profile but also because I can tear holes
in the profiles of many of his opponents. The big
problem here is a big field and the desperate need
for luck in running and there are no guarantees of
that and this makes him unsafe and far more risky.

Friday’s  Full Service Review

Overall a pretty spicy message yesterday given time was
lost with the Racing Post website going down. I ended up
with 14 races to sort out. There were 4 of these that we
broke level in through either savers or each way bets and
they just cancelled each other out. That left 10 races and
there was a clear victory with 5 winners and 5 losers lots
better than I had hoped for. This included a 10/1 winner
so well ahead on paper and overall a good message which
shows my angles work and also shows the more you read
from the message the richer the experience should be.

L i n g f i e l d  1.50

3/1 Mabait, 9/2 Spirit Of Sharjah, 5/1 Clockmaker
6/1 Loyalty, 8/1 Night Lily, Kakatosi, 12/1 Bravo Echo
12/1 Elna Bright, 16/1 Mr Willis, 25/1 Layline
66/1 Mister Green.

* This is an all aged conditions race over a mile
* Quality race but only 18 similar races are run
* I think you have to look at the Draw here
* I looked at 8f Lingfield races with 10 + runners
* The last few races went to the following stalls
* 8 6 5 8 12 7 11 10 2 8 3 10 3 7
* I think the worst stalls have to be 1-2-3
* The last 8 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* MABAIT is Top rated but I see interesting flaws
* He has fewer runs this year than every other runner
* All exposed horses had more runs this year than him
* All horses from 7f races also had more runs
* MABAIT is exposed and comes from 7f
* Dont feel he is equipped to do that with 4 runs this year
* LAYLINE comes out badly with his absence
* ELNA BRIGHT – Doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* KAKATOSI looks unsafe to me
* He has just 1 run since last July and was thrashed in it
* Throw in a step up in distance he looks opposable
* MISTER GREEN is outclassed
* MR WILLIS comes out badly and is badly weighted
* For an exposed horse up in trip he is underraced
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH wouldnt be first choice
* Not exposed and with 1 run since last June
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH also has a bad draw in stall 1
* NIGHT LILY wouldnt be my first choice
* I think Stall 2 wont do her any favours
* She is also a Mare and comes from a conditions race
* BRAVO ECHO – Not a negative but doesnt offer much

S h o r t l i s t

* CLOCKMAKER – I see him as shortlistable but unsafe
* He comes from 7f and winning last time troubles me
* The only horse winning at 7f last time was younger
* I think there are flaws in his profile but he’s in form
* Not keen on his draw much in stall 3
* LOYALTY – Very nice profile 3 similar winners
* He is well drawn and has easily the best profile
* Will need luck in running but a clear choice


* LOYALTY 6/1 Each Way Bet365 StanJames

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips


Trends For Cheltenham

3.05 Cheltenham – International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)


Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a profit of £4.69 (ROI +42.6%).
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (this stretches back to the last 17 renewals).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.79 (+169%). Indeed focusing on the runners that raced in the Greatwood Hurlde LTO this improves to 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £40.42 (ROI +367.4%).


Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 16 qualifiers.


Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 13.3%),5 year olds have won 4 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).

Trends analysis: the best starting point looks to be horses that finished in the first three LTO as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. From there, look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a good record, especially those that ran in the Greatwood hurdle LTO.. Favourites also have a very good record. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding. In terms of age, 5 year olds have done well.

Provided by

Horses On Their First Run In A Handicap Race

Horses On Their First Run In A Handicap Race

Punters are often trying to spot a big sting or a planned gamble. A classic perception is that some horses are intentionally run badly in order to give them a very lenient first handicap mark.

The stats show however that betting every horse on it’s first handicap run is a very fast track route to the poor house.

However NOT all first time handicap runners are a bad bet. With some research and number crunching it is possible to identify profitable angles for backers or alternately sources of good lays for Betfair.

Dave Renham has crunched several years of racing history and written it all up in a couple of free to view articles.

Take a look here

Racing Tip At Ripon

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill sky

Live prices at


This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

First Time Blinkers

First Time Blinkers

With the flat season gathering pace, I have decided to look at horses that are blinkered for the first time. There are numerous ideas why horses are given blinkers to wear.

These include:

-         To try and get the horse to concentrate as some horses get distracted by the other runners in a race;

-         To help the horse break quickly from the stalls. Blinkers often have this effect when worn for the first time;

-         As a last resort to try and improve a horses’ performance.

What one should realise however, is that generally fitting first time blinkers is a negative rather than a positive. The data for this article is taken from the last 6 complete seasons – flat/all weather racing only. All profits are calculated to £1 level stakes at SP. It should be noted that I have included only runners that are wearing blinkers only (for the first time) – I have excluded runners who were wearing tongue ties also. For the record the combination of blinkered first time + tongue tie produce virtually identical strike rates and returns (from a much smaller sample).

Firstly let us look at the results of all runners wearing blinkers for the first time on the flat over the period of study:

Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
441 6336 7% -£1748.87 -27.6

Essentially therefore these runners win around once in every fourteen starts (roughly) for losses of just under 28 pence in the £. Not a great starting point from a betting perspective. However, let us break these stats down into different categories to see if we can either find better betting propositions, or ‘gilt-edged’ laying opportunities.


The perception is that blinkers improve younger horses best, especially 2yos. Let us look at the results breakdown when split by age:

Age Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
2 85 1197 7.1 -£433.73 -36.2
3 185 2755 6.7 -£928.06 -33.7
4 93 1378 6.8 -£344.38 -25.0
5 46 539 8.5 +£68.41 +12.7
6 19 261 7.3 -£80.13 -30.7
7 5 127 3.9 -£66.00 -52.0
8 or older 8 79 10.1 +£35.00 +44.3

As we can see 2yos actually perform below the ‘norm’. Looking at the ages as a whole, there is no discernable pattern, although much older horses (8yo+) have done relatively well from a very small sample.

Digging deeper into the 2yo stats, I have broken down the data by number of career runs:

Career starts Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
debut 4 53 7.5 -£29.00 -54.7
2nd career start 4 110 3.6 -£46.00 -41.8
3rd career start 4 155 2.6 -£98.50 -63.5
4th career start 23 261 8.8 -£127.41 -48.8
5th career start 17 215 7.9 -£10.50 -4.9
6th career start 11 170 6.5 -£87.81 -51.7
7th or more 22 233 9.4 -£34.50 -14.8

Two things that seem to stand out here are firstly that 2yos that have raced several times (7 or more), react to first time blinkers relatively well; secondly 2yos that are assigned blinkers on their 2nd or 3rd career start do extremely poorly in terms of strike rate. My guess is that there is an over-reaction to a poor debut run and the addition of blinkers actually makes things worse.

Market position

Generally the market is an excellent guide to the chances of each horse. Let us look at first time blinkered horses coupled with their market position:

Market pos Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Favourite 85 334 25.5 -£51.82 -15.5
2nd favourite 78 437 17.9 -£70.06 -16.0
3rd favourite 55 510 10.8 -£154.50 -30.3
4th in betting 47 532 8.8 -£99.50 -18.7
5th in betting 39 567 6.9 -£139.00 -24.5
6th or bigger 43 621 6.9 -£34.00 -5.5
7th or bigger 94 3335 2.8 -£1,200.00 -36.0

At first glance the performance of favourites looks OK. However, when we take ALL flat favourites as a whole, the strike rate is around 30-31% with losses of only 6-7%. Hence, horses that start favourite when blinkered for the first time are not good betting propositions.

Race types

Let us break the data down now by specific race types:

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Amateur races 2 57 3.5 -£43.25 -75.9
Claimers 42 482 8.7 -£7.43 -1.5
Group/Listed 9 194 4.6 -£79.75 -41.1
Handicaps 246 3653 6.7 -£1,010.10 -27.7
Maidens 73 1023 7.1 -£426.17 -41.7
Sellers 34 569 6.0 -£204.38 -35.9

Although the data is limited a combination of first time blinkers and an amateur rider looks one to avoid. Indeed of the 55 losers, only 3 got placed. I decided to look back further just to gather a bigger data set. I looked at first time blinkered runners in amateur contests from 1997 to 2004 – they fared poorly once again with just 3 wins from 104.

Maiden races have seen losses of around 42 pence in the £ which above the base figure of 27.6p. Auction maidens have provided the poorest results for first time blinkered runners with just 12 wins from 279 (SR 4.3%) for a loss of £151.06 (ROI -54.1%). Indeed, 2yo maiden Auction races are even worse with just 3 winners from 160 runners (SR 1.9%) for a hefty loss of £129.50 (ROI -80.9%).

Claiming races have seen close to a break-even situation despite a low strike rate of around 9%. Indeed if you exclude maiden claimers the strike rate rises to 9.3% and profits are made; albeit 9 pence profit for every £ wagered. However, it should be noted that these profit figures are essentially down to a few big priced winners and hence it is not an area where the backer can be confident to make a profit in the future.

Race distance

Let us break the data down now by race distance:

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
5-6f 139 2134 6.5 -£718.29 -33.7
7-8f 160 2270 7.0 -£583.43 -25.7
9-10f 58 876 6.6 -£225.05 -25.7
11-12f 61 694 8.8 -£128.31 -18.5
13f+ 23 362 6.4 -£93.80 -25.9

In general there does not seem to be any pattern here. I had expected longer races to produce slightly poorer results but this is not the case.

Turf v all weather

Surface Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
All weather 203 2480 8.2 -£454.92 -18.3
Turf 238 3856 6.2 -£1293.95 -33.6

Horses wearing blinkers for the first time perform better on the all weather compared with turf. This could be due to the fact all weather racing is less competitive; or generally of lower grade. Whatever the reason, the stats are worth taking note of.


I decided to see if the experience of the jockey made a difference. The table below compares professional jockeys with claiming jockeys:

Jockey Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
professional 374 4914 7.6 -1127.87 -23.0
claiming 67 1422 4.7 -£621.00 -43.7

The figures seem to suggest the less experienced jockeys struggle when horses are blinkered for the first time. Losses close to 44 pence in the £ combined with a strike rate of under 5% means that one should swerve these jockeys under these circumstances.


Some trainers have a better understanding of their animals than others so one would expect a real mix of results for first time blinkered runners. I have included all trainers that have saddled at least 30 horses with first time blinkers:

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Sir M Prescott 11 51 21.6 +£27.40 +53.7
B Smart 5 30 16.7 +£0.50 +1.7
C Cox 6 37 16.2 +£8.90 +24.1
I Semple 5 34 14.7 -£5.63 -16.5
R Charlton 5 35 14.3 -£9.13 -26.1
G Butler 5 36 13.9 +£19.00 +52.8
R Hannon 16 129 12.4 +£0.50 +0.4
M Tregoning 4 33 12.1 +£33.00 +100.0
R Harris 8 68 11.8 +£47.75 +70.2
J Boyle 4 34 11.8 +£1.00 +2.9
T Barron 6 54 11.1 -£12.00 -22.2
M Easterby 9 85 10.6 -£20.75 -24.4
C Brittain 6 57 10.5 -£12.38 -21.7
W Haggas 7 67 10.5 -£13.00 -19.4
J Moore 5 49 10.2 +£12.25 +25.0
M Johnston 12 118 10.2 +£1.58 +1.3
P Cole 9 89 10.1 -£29.25 -32.9
J Dunlop 6 61 9.8 -£11.67 -19.1
K Ryan 14 144 9.7 -£7.38 -5.1
P Grayson 6 64 9.4 -£17.05 -26.6
J Gosden 7 75 9.3 -£17.17 -22.9
B Meehan 15 161 9.3 +£8.08 +5.0
N Littmoden 4 44 9.1 -£17.50 -39.8
J Osborne 4 46 8.7 +£10.00 +21.7
G L Moore 6 72 8.3 -£24.38 -33.9
B Hills 3 36 8.3 +£15.00 +41.7
M Quinlan 3 36 8.3 -£18.50 -51.4
P Evans 4 50 8.0 -£8.50 -17.0
T Easterby 10 131 7.6 -£11.75 -9.0
E Johnson Houghton 2 31 6.5 -£6.00 -19.4
W Muir 4 64 6.3 -£35.75 -55.9
B Ellison 2 32 6.3 -£9.00 -28.1
M Dods 2 32 6.3 -£11.50 -35.9
Mrs A Perrett 4 67 6.0 -£30.00 -44.8
R Fahey 4 71 5.6 -£35.50 -50.0
E Dunlop 2 44 4.6 -£36.00 -81.8
R Beckett 2 50 4.0 -£20.00 -40.0
M Tompkins 2 57 3.5 -£43.50 -76.3
M Jarvis 1 30 3.3 -£25.00 -83.3
I McInnes 1 34 2.9 -£29.50 -86.8
P Blockley 1 35 2.9 -£30.00 -85.7
R Millman 1 37 2.7 -£8.00 -21.6
J Bradley 0 66 0.0 -£66.00 -100.0
A Berry 0 50 0.0 -£50.00 -100.0
J Given 0 41 0.0 -£41.00 -100.0
J Eustace 0 31 0.0 -£31.00 -100.0
J Weymes 0 30 0.0 -£30.00 -100.0

Sir Mark Prescott has excellent figures considering how poor these runners do in general – a better than 1 in 5 strike rate with profits of over 50 pence for every £ wagered. At the other end of the scale, Milton Bradley and Alan Berry have combined to produce 0 winners from 116 runners.


To conclude, horses blinkered for the first time are essentially poor investments. However, some are much worse than others as this article has hopefully highlighted. If nothing else, I suspect this article may save you from backing certain horses that have a very poor chance of winning. This should help your betting bank balance.

Dave Renham


Dave Renahm is a regular feature writer in the Racing And Football Outlook newspaper.  If you are more of an investor rather than gambler at your racing, more of his educational research work may be found online at and at

HINT: Both sites above will on occasion offer a free trial to sports betting blog subscribers. Why not Register Here for Free so you know when such a deal is available.

Speed Ratings In Horse Racing

Looking At Races Differently Can Make A Profit

When reading articles about analyzing horse racing you will always find the writers saying that you ‘mustn’t follow the crowd’ or to ‘do things differently’ or something similar. They then go on to outline a method that is not particularly different to anything else that you have ever read!

What they are saying is correct. You do want to do things differently. It is by doing things differently that you will find your edge and by finding your edge you will also find your profit.

Over the course of this article I want to plant some seeds for ways of analyzing a race that you may have never of thought of before. It is these ideas that will ultimately help you to look at a horse race differently to everyone else betting on it and find your long-term profit.

All races have different conditions and they also have different types of runners. This is what determines how you should analyse them. There is less point focusing on speed in a race that is 3 miles long, you would be better off focusing on pace and stamina (for example).

I would like to focus on sprint races as it is something I have been teaching quite a lot recently and with increasing all-weather racing I feel that it is going to be something that you can use in the future.

With sprint races we can focus on speed as our analysis. This in itself is not different but there are many ways to look at a horse from a speed perspective. Some of these can include:

Speed class based on speed figures of winners in previous races

Projected speed

Speed ratings

Collateral speed form

Speed improvements

These are just a few possibilities and I can guarantee that out of the list above, speed ratings will be the only one that has a lot of people using it and even with this you can look at the actual speed ratings in different ways to other people.

However the perspective I would like to focus on here is Speed Improvements. It stands to reason that a runner that is improving in speed has every chance of improving its speed in the race it is about to run.

All you now need to do is simply to find out if the horse has the required speed to compete in the race to make your final selections, but I am getting ahead of myself. Let me go back a bit and investigate how I do this.

First of all I look at each runners last 8 speed figures. I am looking for horses who have a general trend of improvement. This does not mean that I expect them to increase in every single race but that the overall trend of the last 8 races is upwards.

You are now already ahead of most punters because you are focusing on runners who have shown a recent improvement rather than just narrowing your search down to those with the highest figure. A horse that has shown recent improvement would have every reason to continue this trend.

Speed figures, although normally adjusted for these factors, can change for a runner depending on the distance and going. This makes it better for us just to consider the last 8 races that match a similar distance and going condition as the race we are analyzing.

Already in the last 2 paragraphs you have learned how you can identify runners that are improving over the same conditions as the race you are analyzing in a matter of minutes. This on its own is incredibly powerful and can result in profits on its own. However we want to target our selections even more accurately.

We have a shortlist of runners that are improving in speed over the distance and going of todays race. It makes sense to now look at whether or not these runners are fast enough to win the race. While they may be improving it is no use if they do not have the raw speed to win.

Assessing the raw speed of a horse can be very difficult and, contrary to popular belief, cannot be done by just looking for the runner with the highest speed figure. Just using the highest speed figure or the average speed figures of all runners does not work because no rating is 100% accurate. To get around this we use something called confidence intervals. A confidence interval will allow you to assess, with a 90% confidence, the likelihood of a speed rating being between a high and low figure. The actual figure recorded will sit in the middle of these two numbers.

We calculate this figure by:

1)      Calculate the average of the last 8 speed figures

2)      Calculate the standard deviation for these figures

3)      Calculate the standard error for these figures using the result of step 2

4)      Multiply the standard error from step 3 by 1.397

5)      For the lower confidence level subtract the result of step 4 to each of your eight speed figures

6)      For the upper confidence level add the result of step 4 to each of your eight speed figures

For each of your speed ratings from the last eight races you will now have 3 figures. The lower confidence level, the speed rating and the upper confidence level.

How does this help us?

This helps us because we now know, with a 90% confidence, that the slowest the horse ran was the lowest figure and the fastest the horse ran is the highest figure. If we work this out for each of our 8 past speed ratings we can begin to see which of our selections actually have the speed to win the race.

You do this by following these rules:

Find the winner with the highest speed figure in the last 8 races.

Record the lower confidence interval for this speed figure.

Make sure that all of our selections have had a race in their last 8 races where the highest confidence interval is above this figure.

That’s it! Just three simple steps and you have made sure that all your runners actually have the speed to win the race.

What have we actually achieved?

By looking at races from a slightly different perspective we have managed to shortlist the runners that have been improving on the current conditions of the race. We have then narrowed our shortlist down into the final selections by only keeping those that have shown they have the speed to win using a statistical approach.

To make this even easier the Race Advisor features RA Graphs which displays all the information you need to find these selections in easy to read graphs provided for racing every single day.

Michael Wilding

Author Bio

The Race Advisor was started by Michael Wilding and is aimed at the new and semi-experienced bettor.
We are the leading online resource for learning how to bet profitably providing unique features that are
unavailable elsewhere. There are also over 200 articles on the site looking at different sports and how to profit from them.