The following is a snippet from today’s message from Big Mike.
Big Mike is an ex accountant who know lieks to use his knowledge of numbers to take cash of the bookmakers.

His followers get daily messages with an array of strategic bets on both horse racing & sport.
The following snippet I thought posting up here as it is an educational piece you can learn from showing you how to hedge an each way double.

More from Big Mike at ===> BIG MIKE BETTING

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Hedging An Each Way Double

The best way of showing how to play a hedge is with an actual example.

AWESOME FOURSOME

4 x £4 ew doubles

Tarn Hows 5/2 & Real Milan 8/1 12.05 Uttoxeter
with Remix 7/2 & Lady Lyricist 12/1 350 Wolves

Stakes of £40 at Bet365 ‘Best Odds’

In the first race Real Milan managed to win at 12/1 and Tarn Hows was
placed at 5/2.

So in effect because of the price of the winner in the first race we had
£52 running on the win side of both Lady Lyricist and also Remix.

I emailed all members as we had to protect this vast windfall. Neither of
the two horses were expected to win so we had to retrieve something in
order to live another day.

The first thing to do is to work out how much would be won if either of the
doubles would have landed. At 7/2 the Remix double would have produced app
£180 and if Lady Lyricist had obliged we were talking well over £1,000.

So we had plenty of oil in the tank. My initial suggestion was to retrieve
stakes at least by laying £4 pre start on each horse back to Betfair. I
then suggested placing mines (lays in running) and in fairness to Remix a
good return was made as the horse was laid down to 2.02 on the win site.
Lady Lyricist was last seen in the middle of Wolverhampton at 9pm last
night so nothing back from her save the initial £4 lay.

On the place site it was a different kettle of fish as Remix – at 7/2 – in
effect gave 1.7 return if placed yet was layable at 1.28 before the start.
Similarly Lady Lyricist at 28/1 would be the equivalent of 6.6 on the place
site yet again layable at a considerable advantage at 3.2. At a stroke both
horses could have been laid at least for £26 (Half the gross bet) and the
cost would have been app £7 on Remix and just over £70 on Lady Lyricist. It
may seem a lot to hedge but consider that the place return if successful
from Remix would have been £35+ and on LL the place return at SP would have
been £250+ – so there was much to save.

Always remember that these huge doubles are rarely going to land – so
evasive action is a must.

Saturday Soccer Betting Tips

A couple of soccer tips for you this weekend.

These come 99Reds over at the Football Bets website.

As you can see there is little waffle to these.
The advice is based on 99 Reds stats database.
If you look at the historic results section on the football bets site
you will see his advice has been well worth following
with a significant long term net profit.

Yeovil v Huddersfield (3:00pm)
Huddersfield TO WIN at 3/4 William Hill Ladbrokes Stan James PaddyPower 1pt

OVER 2.5 Goals Double
Man City v Wolves OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
Preston v Bournemouth OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
This double pays out 7/5 Sky Coral 27/20 PaddyPower Blue Square Betfred BoyleSports  1pt

.

Betting on the number of corners in a soccer match might seem to some a little strange. Likk betting on two fly’s on a wall perhaps.

It starts to make a lot more sense however if you maintain a big database of soccer statistics  and use that to carefully pinpoint value in a bet.

It can certainly make watching a live match more interesting.

You find yourself screaming at the TV to the defender shouting “push him wide .. don’t let him cut inside”.

I have a corner bet today for you.

It comes from an ex bookmaker odds compiler called Phil who is one of the advisors over at Football Bets

Arsenal v Wolves (3:00pm)
OVER 11 Corners at 10/11 Bet365 next best  (4/5 Sky ) 1pt

This one may or may not win but he has a very good long term record of profit and healthy return on investment.

There is a no quibble refund guarantee there to protect you if for some reason you find the service not suitable for you personally.

Worth a test if you can see the sense in having bookmaker trained ex odds compilers directing your betting  action.

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Lingfield 3.35   INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single Best Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

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On the Service for Full Members of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
there are seven previews today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONALDEBUT  EACH WAY

The Four Tops – this week’s free bet offer from Betfair

They’re top of their respective leagues because they are the most successful teams so far this season – and now we’re offering you the chance to back The Four Tops, safe in the knowledge we’ll give you a free bet if they let you down. Simply place a single fourfold, staking £10 or more, on our Four Tops fourfold, which is backing Chelsea, Wolves, Scunthorpe and Darlington to win their games on Saturday. And if one (or more) of that quartet loses, we’ll give you a free £5 bet.

Specific Terms:

To be eligible for a free bet, you must have placed a single fourfold, staking at least £10, on The Four Tops fourfold, which backs the following teams to win their matches on Saturday November 22nd,

2008: Chelsea, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Scunthorpe United and Darlington. The fourfold must be placed before 3pm on Saturday November 22nd, 2008.

A free £5 bet will be paid if one (or more) of the four teams specified above loses their fixture on Saturday November 22nd, 2008.

Free bets are limited to one per person.

Free bets will be paid into accounts by 6pm on Thursday November 27th, 2008.

Standard Betfair Terms and Conditions apply.