A couple of tips for todays soccer from ex bookmaker stats man Phil

over at the football bets website.

To visit the football website click here ==> Soccer Betting Tips

As you can see Phils style is short, sweet and to the point.

No long wordy waffle on his tips.

His long term profit results do all his taking for him.

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Bayern Munich v Schalke (5:30pm)
Bayern Munich -1 in Handicap market at 9/10 BlueSq 888Sport 7/8 UniBet 5/6 PaddyPower SkyBet 1pt

Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart (2:30pm)
OVER 2.5 Goals at 4/5 Stan James 3/4 UniBet 14/19 32Red 8/11 SkyBet Betfred VC 1pt

NEWBURY 3.25 – THEATRE DANCE 6/1 Each Way

THEATRE DANCE is a horse that might unsettle
us especially if he has to be pushed a bit early but I
have negatives in the race. He is from a stable that
are on fire. He’s well handicapped and must now be
fit for the 1st time this season and I like his chance.

NEWBURY 3.25

7/2 Ogee, 5/1 Rey Nacarado, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Briery Fox
8/1 Scots Dragoon 8/1 Theatre Dance, 10/1 Double Dizzy
12/1 Noble Crusader , 20/1 Burren Legend.

* No Preview just the profiles I did not like
* The following are all Negatives with Poor Profiles

NOBLE CRUSADER – Wrong coming from 20f or less
MAKTU – Too much weight with a step up in trip
OGEE – Not convinced with 2 runs this year
BRIERY FOX – Too old for 1-2-3 runs this year
BURREN LEGEND – Didnt do enough last time
SCOTS DRAGOON – Exposed from Novice Chase no thanks

SELECTION – THEATRE DANCE each way is my choice

6/1 various spots inc Sky Bet365 Tote VC BoyleSports Blue Square

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> horse racing tips

Today’s Best Bet

KEMPTON 1.20

VIA GALILEI 7/1

My best profile horse (Wayward Prince) doesnt run
so what may have been a two bet day is reduced to a
single bet. I am relaxed about that. I probably havent
got to grips with enough races today partly down to
the weather and the cards and there is not much I like.

I do like VIA GALILEI’s chance a lot though and he’s
well worth a decent bet at 7/1 or better. I have some
negatives amongst the fancied dangers. I can not see
many horses beating him all things equal. His rating
on the Flat which has been as high as 107 demands he
must have a very lenient handicap mark over hurdles
off 116 especially when he has already won twice. He
could easily bump into something that beats him but
I can not see many dangers. He’s a good price. These
races are frightening but full of horses that can’t win
so they are never as competetive as they look. He is
interesting as he has a crucial blend of having enough
experience to win but being lightly raced enough to be
progressive and capable of improving. I cant see a bet
that I like better today. There may be something for
the cherry pickers below but I think this is one tough
Saturday. A Day to watch some high class racing and
just the one bet at a decent price to try and win well.

8/1 with VC and Betfred
15/2 with Hills PaddyPower Bet365 Tote
7/1 Generally elsewhere

KEMPTON 1.20

William Hill Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m

9/2 Skint, 5/1 Samsons Son, 6/1 Ski Sunday, 7/1 Via Galilei
10/1 Aather, 10/1 Babilu, 14/1 Simply Blue, 14/1 Souter Point
14/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Zanir, 20/1 Big Robert
20/1 Johnny Mullen, 25/1 Alhaque, 25/1 Karky Schultz 50/1 Tobago Bay, 50/1 Top Mark.

This is a competetive 2m Handicap Hurdle. This race has lots of varied profiles.
I wasn’t convinced about SKINT. He comes from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
There are winners that have done that but none had just 3 runs like him and
none were as young  as he is aged 5 and none had his weight. I think you have
to be careful with the horses coming from Novice Hurdles when they have a
long absence. I found only 3 winners like this in 190 of these 2m Handicaps
and None had under 7 career starts.
Those with fewer than 7 starts were 0-35. All 3 winners that won first time out from
a Novice Hurdle dropped from 2m 4f or longer and those that raced at 16f or 17f last
time were 0-37 and that puts me off some of the lighter raced Novice Hurdlers in this race.
That means SAMSONS SON and SOUTER POINT both look vulnerable and don’t have strong profiles.
TOP MARK is hard to fancy not doing enough last time.
TOBAGO BAY and ALHAQUE look outclassed.
WILLIAM HOGARTH is unsafe coming from a Novice Handicap Chase.
If you take horse with long absences that had raced13 or more times before you
find  a 1-79 record . ZANIR has that to overcome and a high weight  on his seasonal
debut and I thing thats asking too much. I dont see a strong case for KARKY SCHULTZ.
There has been some strong money for SKI SUNDAY but he doesn’t look right.
The record of seasonal debutants like him carrying 11st 3lbs or more is poor and
none were 6 year olds like him and I couldnt match him to a winner.
BIG ROBERT will probably find this too much with 3 career hurdle runs.
There are only 3 I can shortlist.

SHORTLIST

I would make BABILU a positive. She may be a mare but she
won last time and is well raced this year and with a light weight  it counts for plenty.
AATHER Looks well worth a place on the shortlist.
I respect VIA GALILEI who won a handicap first time  out this year.
I thought this trio looked best but given the choice it has to be VIA GALILEI.
What swings it for me is his rating.
This is a horse that was consistently rated over 100 on the flat having come from
Jim Bolger to Gary Moore.
He was a top class handicapper on the Flat. That makes a Hurdle rating of 116
just too lenient. It much have more ability than that. Ideally lightly raced.
Winning a good trial race last time. The horse has been handicapped after 3 runs.
Then he won a Maiden hurdle and a handicap on his last two starts and gets in
here off a very decent mark. He’s too good a horse not to fancy off 116 and
with some of main dangers statistically weak he looks well worth a bet.
It doesnt surprise me he has a Tote Gold Trophy entry.
He won’t get in that race without a couple of wins but one of them might well
come today and he would be my best bet at the meeting.

SELECTION

VIA GALILEI 7/1 Win Bet

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

The following horse racing tip below comes from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

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NEWMARKET 2.35

Bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 Bet365 Coral VC

Huntingdon  1.55 – Rackham Lerouge

Best price 15/8     Ladbrokes – VC – Skybet

This bet comes from the PunterProfits NH Portfolio a method that has produced significant net profits over many years.

For further info click here ==>  Horse Racing System

I have a few what I deem stronger bets today but out of respect for clients who pay for my betting advice I must unfortunately refrain from putting them up here.

Still I have an interesting angle for at a race at Salisbury later with a couple of decent priced contenders.

SALISBURY 6.20

BATHWICK TYRES NOVICE AUCTION STAKES
(CLASS 5)(2yo) 6f

6/4 Raine’s Cross, 13/8 Dick Turpin, 8/1 Drift And Dream
12/1 Emma Dora, 12/1 Perfect Ch’I, 25/1 Pherousa
25/1 San Cassiano, 33/1 Fantastic Pick, 33/1 Weliketobouggie 66/1 Bush Master, 66/1 Chocolate Cookie.

This race is a 6f Novice Auction Contest. Salisbury has
12 renewals of this race. This is a race where Fillies have
dominated. They lead 9-3 in the 12 races and there has
been fewer Fillies run as well. They should really be 10-2
ahead as one year they had no chance of winning. I feel
a male horse can win but if they do you know they will
turn out to be pretty smart. Considering unraced horses
are 0-17 in this race lets take out the unraced males first
so SAN CASSIANO and WELIKETOBOUGGIE are out. I cant see a case for BUSH MASTER. No past winner dropped in trip and the male FANTASTIC PICK does not appeal. CHOCOLATE COOKIE doesnt appeal as a debutant and no filly was beaten more than 10 lengths last time so PHEROUSA has to go.

The issue is whether the 3 remaining fillies EMMA DORA – PERFECT CH’I
or DRIFT AND DREAM can beat the a male who has Group form in RAINE´S CROSS and a male that has won his only race in DICK TURPIN. Its much better to come from an Auction maiden so I will take out EMMA DORA. I respect the males but feel the Fillies are advantaged in a race like this. I plan to bet one and save on the other

SELECTION – DRIFT AND DREAM 10/1 Bet365 S James Betfred
SAVER – PERFECT CH’I 16/1 blue sq VC

best wishes
Guy

To visit Guys site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tips

A free tip below cortesy of  www.PunterProfits.com

It comes from their NH Portfolio horse racing system

( a system with many many years of past profitable years )

SYSTEM D
Ban3 3.20 – Buckland Gold

Best Odds around as I type are about 13/2 on Betfair

Want to bet each way then consider 11/2 PaddyPower or VC