LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION – SAMARINDA
7/1 Betfred Bet365

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

To read more from Guy click here  Horse Betting Blog

York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

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YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
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Chester 3.20 ( from www.mathematicianbetting.co.uk )

BENEDICTE  £50 Win Bet 7/4 +
( 2/1 available at Betfred )

CRABBIES ALCOHOLIC GINGER BEER
MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES(CLASS 4) (3yo+)  1m2f75y

9/4 Crazy Chris, 5/2 Benedicte, 3/1 Nesayem, 6/1 Amroth,
12/1 Triple Cee, 50/1 Sacco D’Oro, 66/1 Amber Glow.

This is an all aged Maiden for fillies. There has been about 29 races like this at this time of year. Unraced horses were 0-46 so SACCO D´ORO is rejected. I dont want any horse beaten 10 lengths or more last time. They’ve a 1-27 record. AMBER GLOW would’ve failed that in a bumper last time out. Its very Interesting that 28 of the 29 winners were 3  year olds. Older horses have a poor 1-47 record. I’d worry CRAZY CHRIS is an older horse and that he has to give 6lbs to 4 Three year olds. It wouldnt be a surprise if one was too strong for her. The following is interesting

* September-October has 380 all aged maidens
* Thats 380 maidens at every and any distance
* Older Fillies like CRAZY CHRIS have a 6-391 record
* Those with under 4 career runs are 0-188
* Those with under 2 runs that season are 0-136

Those stats are not as great as they sound as many of
them were not fancied but it raises great doubts about
CRAZY CHRIS’s ability to give weight away and I’d
be looking for an alternative. AMROTH doesnt have
any major flaws I can see. BENEDICTE was expensive
and you can bet she wasnt at her best last time out and
had a quiet introduction. I don’t want TRIPLE CEE as
horses from 3yo handicaps were 0-24 and she comes
down from 13f to 10f and I see her as unsafe. I would
look to AMROTH as one of the potential winners but
BENEDICTE looked quite an interesting runner. Very
well bred half sister to Amadeus Wolf and I think she
will improve a lot on her second run. NESAYEM  sets
the benchmark coming from Handicaps rated 67. She
sets a reasonable standard and will be able to draw on
her experience here. What draws me to BENEDICTE
is the fact NESAYEM whilst attractive statistically
couldnt beat Pyrus Time two runs ago at Lingfield
and that horse has a 0-14 record and was beaten in
a seller yesterday and is exposed and I think I should
give the chance to BENEDICTE to improve past her.

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

Free Horse Racing Tip from www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

HAYDOCK 2.55

Betfred.COM OLD BOROUGH CUP
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)
(3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kings Destiny, 6/1 Alanbrooke, 7/1 Hits Only Vic, 10/1
Chiberta King, 10/1 Yes Mr President, 12/1 Magicalmysterytour 12/1 Nemo Spirit, 14/1 Conquisto, 14/1 Precision Break, 16/1 Highland Legacy, 20/1 Gordonsville, 20/1 Lord Theo, 20/1 Som Tala, 20/1 Spring Jim, 25/1 Macorville, 33/1 Clear Reef 33/1 Hindu Kush.

This Old Borough Cup has 9 renewals and although
it has upgraded over the years in class its a good stats
race and I think we should be able to get this sorted.
I would advise you follow these trends in the race

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-51 record
* Every past winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every past winner was aged 3-4-5
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-57)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-62)
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more
* Horses aged 4 or more coming from 12f or less are 0-43
* This leaves to a shortlist of 2 horses
* ALANBROOKE – KINGS DESTINY
* I think KING’S DESTINY stands out
* Look at horses aged 3 in this race from 12f races
* When they have between 5 and 8 career starts
* When they finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time out

3 year olds that have that profile had a 4-5 record in this
race. The 5 horses finished W W W 2 W and the only one
that didnt win finished second to one of the winners so he
couldnt have won. Thats the outstanding profile in this race and I am placing KINGS DESTINY in the new statistically strong horses paragraph.

SELECTION

KINGS DESTINY – Win Bet  11/2 at Blue Square, CanBet , sportingbet

RIPON 2.45

EUROPEAN BREEDERS´ FUND FILLIES´
HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80)1m1f170y

7/2 Antigua Sunrise, 7/2 Cascata, 9/2 Atabaas Allure,
9/2 Cwm Rhondda, 7/1 Kaloni, 8/1 Sparkling Crystal,
10/1 Island Music, 20/1 Tres Froide, 33/1 Shosolosa.

This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10 furlongs. I have looked at the 12 renewals of this race and all 44 similar races in August. My negatives are these. CASCATA has to go with 3 runs and just a couple this year. I couldnt find a winner who had a similar profile.  CWM RHONDDA wouldnt be my first  choice as older horses with absences struggled and I didnt like  her profile. ISLAND MUSIC and TRES FROIDE would also  be negatives as well as no 4 year old came up in trip from an  8f race last time out. SHOSOLOSA is outclassed and I would  avoid these five horses in this race. This leaves a shortlist of Four. I felt they were all interesting in one way or another
without being exceptional but if I had to pick two it would be ANTIGUA SUNRISE and ATABAAS ALLURE

ATABAAS ALLURE has just come from Goodwood when
she couldnt dominate a Class 2 handicap. I dont mind that
as she was hardly beaten far and its a race that has provided a past winner of this race before and her form stands up to scrutiny. I see her trying to make all here and on a front runners track she may be able to run these into the ground.

I think ANTIGUA SUNRISE is a slightly better horse but
is she a better horse at short of 10 furlongs ? She won two on the bounce in May and June and looked progressive. It  was no surprise she lost two runs ago stepped up in trip when  statistically weak and running over a trip thats beyond her.  She ran very well last time out considering she was a big negative coming down half a mile in trip. Her runs at this  trip all came before her improvement and whilst its probably a bit on the short side I think she will cope with it but its not a front runners track and ATABAAS ALLURE could well have flown and could be hard to catch.

SELECTION

ATABAAS ALLURE 5/1 each way

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tip

NEWMARKET 3.25

SPORTINGBET.COM E B F FILLIES´ STAKES
(HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+ 0-100) 7f

100/30 Pyrrha, 7/2 Lassarina, 9/2 Adoring, 5/1 Victoria Sponge, 8/1 Volochkova, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Carcinetto, 16/1 Shaws Diamond, 25/1 Vitoria.

There has not been many Fillies handicaps at this time of
year in this sort of grade so statistically we dont have great angles.
What few there have been all went to unexposed horses.
I see OCEANA BLUE and CARCINETTO as far
too exposed and vulnerable. I dont see VITORIA defying
a nasty absence either. ADORING has had just one career
run. She also has a 62 day absence and races on soft ground.
Having one run looks something to be worried about.
I’ve looked at every fillies handicap that has ever been run at
any distance in Class 3 and better.
Only one horse has won one of these races and that horse (Tartouche)
did it at a different trip and won a muddling false pace race before
going on to win Group races. ADORING is trying to do something no
other horse has done. Given that she also has an absence and hasnt
been on the ground before I’d want to oppose her second time out in
a 0-97 handicap. I didnt think VOLOCHKOVA would have the class.
She scraped home in a triple photo on a Class 5 race on the sand
that was only a 0-75 class race and she now takes a 3 grade rise
into a Class 2 contest and I suspect that will find her out.
LASSARINA has just one run this season and all similar races show
you are much better off with at least 3 runs that season.
She could well be underraced especially with a 98 day absence as well.
I respect the fact she drops from a Group race but shes inexperienced
and far from  certain to be fit. She has a large weight for a 3 year old.
The fact she won a Conditions race on her debut and then ran in two Group
Races shows she has class but its done nothing for her handicap mark
and a mark of 97 wont be easy to overcome with all her other issues like
her absence and inexperience and just the one run this year. She may
win but she isnt for me. SHAWS DIAMOND may find this
a bit too warm. PYRRHA is lightly raced and open to some
improvement. She had a legitimate excuse last time out at
Newmarket when badly drawn. She is tempting each way
around 4/1 but I have a couple of reservations. She has no
form on ground softer than good and isnt sure to want the
soft ground. I also worry she has just two runs this year
and could be at a fitness disadvantage. VICTORIA SPONGE
looks interesting. She looked progressive recently as she
easily won two handicaps but came unstuck last time. It
was no surprise as she was a 3 year old giving weight and
a penalty to older horses when having to drop in distance
which didnt suit her. VICTORIA SPONGE will appreciate
this return to 7f today. I would rather she came from a 7f
race but that doesnt worry me as others have far more to
worry about in terms of fitness and experience and ground.
I think VICTORIA SPONGE is a decent each way bet.

SELECTION – VICTORIA SPONGE Each Way 6/1 at Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Betting

Saturday Racing Analysis from Dave Renham of RacingTrends

To Visit Dave’s site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Statistics

Two big races today where I have taken a 20 year trends approach in an attempt to create some shortlists.

3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £24.00 (ROI +36.4%).

Last time out winners: 17 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Price: 16 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 3/1 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £37.00 (ROI +41.6%).

Seasonal debut: 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut.

Draw: In big fields (18+ runners) all winners have been drawn middle to high. The lowest winning stall position in such races has been 12.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times since 1998. Sir Michael Stoute has been successful 3 times in 1997, 2000 and 2001.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting market have provided 2 winners from 215 runners for a loss of £172.00 (ROI -80%).

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 148 runners.

Career starts: Horses that raced 8 times or more in their career have provided 0 winners from 44.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 20 for a loss of £11.67 (ROI -58.4%).

Course winners: Course winners have won 7 races from 97 (SR 7.2%); non course winners have won 13 races from 245 (SR 5.3%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race although favourites have a poor record. Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners not surprisingly have a good record, while horses making their seasonal debut are around 5 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). Big priced outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have not scored in the last 20 years. Finally, runners from the stable of Aidan O’Brien clearly demand the upmost respect.

Conclusion – no horse perfectly matching the trends so we have to find horses that match the trends the best. Both Aidan O’Brien’s horses did not win LTO (which is a negative) and of the pair Mastercraftsman looks the right portion of the betting. Arguably the best fit is Evasive – currently 10/1 4th favourite. So from a trends perspective Evasive and Mastercraftsman look the rip. Rip Van Winkle if deposed as favourite (which is possible) then that would make up the trends trio.

3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 15 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 9 winners. That equates to 45% of the races from which they have provided just 20% of the total runners.

Market position LTO: 12 of the last 20 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their previous start have provided just 1 winner from 47 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -63.8%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 101 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -58.4%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 3 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -65.8%). However, they have provided 2 of the last 4 winners.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 8 wins from 23 for a profit of 34 pence!

Age: 3yos have won 5 races from 60 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 4yos have won 7 races from 76 qualifiers (SR 9.2%); 5yos have won 5 races from 44 qualifiers (SR 11.4%); 6yos have won 2 races from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 7yos+ have won 1 race from 42 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have won 16 races from 199 runners (SR 8%); female runners have won 4 races from 61 (SR 6.6%).

Trends analysis: Horses priced in single figures is a potential starting point, while, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO and those that were priced 16/1 or bigger on their most recent start. Combining this one positive and two negative stats your shortlist would have found the winner in 70% of the races from just 27% of the total runners. Another negative worth using when eliminating runners is horses aged 7 or more.

Conclusion – Chief Editor, Borderlescott and Amour Propre are the obvious three for the trends pick.

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Tips from ===> Horse Racing Tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 Bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE each way 5/1 Bet365

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s website Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips

Main Account Bets – Haajes (4.45 Ling) – take 6/1 (Corals, Sky bet, sporting bet) WIN

Firstly some 15 year trends for three of the big races today:

1.05 Ascot Reynoldstown Chase

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some very strong positive pointers. 13 of the last 15 winners have been one of the top two in the betting market so this is a definite starting point with preference to favourites who have an outstanding record. From there look for last time out winners, although it is likely that the top two in the market would have won LTO. Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out would be the next port of call considering their excellent record. Finally, it should be noted that the last 28 horses aged 8 or older have lost, so it is best to concentrate on younger horses (7yo or younger with slight preference to 5 and 6yos).

Conclusion – Breedsbreeze the favourite at a best priced 5/4 looks a solid trends horse.

2.55 Haydock Rendlesham Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: the market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. However, any horse returning to the track within 2 weeks is worth close scrutiny, and with 3 fairly decent priced winners from this stat, this is where some value may be found.Horses that ran in a handicap last time have a better record than one would think and the handful who won that handicap LTO have definitely been worth noting. Horses that were 4/1 or bigger last time out have provided 66.7% of the winners – statistically this figure is normally only 40% in this grade type/grade so this is a stat worth checking out. French breds have a good recent record and any such runner demands respect. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

Conclusion – nothing really stands out trends wise and from a form perspective the race does look at match between the top 2 in the market.

2.40 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: from the positive stats perspective, preference should be for 6yos, then 7yos. Also monitor closely the selections of Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed. When they have agreed on the top rated selection they have provided 5 winners from just 9 runners. A recent win is a plus (last three starts), while it is best to ignore any runner that is or has done in the past worn blinkers or a visor.

Conclusion – not a particularly strong trends race but Whiteoak looks to fit the trends best.Having said that it looks a tough ask after a long break on not ideal ground.

Other races

1.55 Haydock – good competitive contest this.

Miko De Beauchene – Did well last season, following up Welsh National success with win in this race from a 8lblower mark. Could go well at decent odds on ground he handles.

Opera Mundi – Has a mixed record, but on soft / heavy it reads: 21112163. Solid chance.
Mon Mome – Back to his best this season when winning at Cheltenham in December. Seemed to have put last season which was poor behind him. Excuses in Welsh National next time (race probably came too quick); handles ground and a player. Record on soft/heavy reads 2U3612114224382.
Cornish Sett – in good form last 2 starts including runner-up in Welsh National from this handicap mark.

Nenuphar Collonges – record on soft/heavy reads 61212217. Should go well with a good round of jumping.

Rambling Minster – Won for eighth time in career at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Up in the weights in a stronger race is the concern.

CharacterBuilding – decent chance on best form. Cheekpieces may help; McCoy will help more.

Eric’s Chram – Front-runner who has fair form but his jumping can be sloppy and that will be a problem.
Glasker Mill – slight concern about the trip but should not be dismissed.
Sherwoods Folly – fifth in Welsh National last time and should be on the premises if able to reproduce that sort of effort here.
Beat The Boys – won 4 times as a novice last year. Form of the yard still a bit suspect so passed over.
D’Argent – stable second string but trip will suit.
Nadover – potentially well weighted and goes on heavy. Soft/heavy record reads:

5421113P713737. Not out of it.
CarnivalTown – handicap mark looks a bit harsh at present.
L’Aventure – quirky type who I’d always rather be against than for.

Conclusion – very open race. My two against the field would be Mon Mome and Opera Mundi.

Onto the all weather:

3.30 Kempton – Wotashirtfull is around even money in this 3 runner sprint. He should win.

3.35 Lingfield – Majuro looks the value option here in an open little affair.

4.05 Kempton – Millfield and Tous Les Deux head the market and these definitely look the two most likely winners. Tous Les Deux would just get my vote.

4.10 Lingfield – Quick Single at around 5/1 may be a bit of value in this maiden.

4.45 Lingfield – Haajes looks overpriced in this good sprint. He is nearer a 4/1 chance on my tissue and so at 6/1 he rates as a bet.
www.RacingTrends.co.uk

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.