Horse Laying System

The below is todays lay selection from a  well researched and live tested approach called Terrys Lays.

Terrys lays are one of the many things you get as a full member of www.PunterProfits.com. Selections are emailed out daily.

So far in 2010 with a one point lay on each selection you would be in the region of 55 points ahead !

The method has further proven similar past success however over past years as well.

Long term strike rate is a very comfortable 85%

PunterProfits provide a detailed spreadsheet of historic results.

Obviously a useful aid to anyone seeking to refine their personal staking plan.

For details click this link ==>   Horse Laying Tips

Today’s selection from this method is

6.20 Wolv – Sworn Tigress

Currently layable at about 7/4 on Betfair

Newmarket Betting Statistics

Dave Renham has kindly provided some stats to help with a couple of races at Newmarket today.

Find out more about Dave at his own site. Click Here ==> Horse Betting Advice

——————————————————————

The trends and statistics are based on the last 20 years to 1990.

All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return
on investment;

LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

Newmarket 2.30 Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: Second and third favourites (inc. Joints) have produced
9 wins from 43 qualifiers showing a profit of £14.50 (ROI +33.7%).
Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 16 of the last
20 winners.
LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have produced 13
of the 20 winners (from 86 qualifiers) showing a profit of £24.72 (ROI
+29.1%).
Trainers: In form trainers are worth noting. Trainers whose
last winner came within his/her last seven runners have accounted for
17 of the 20 winners. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit
of £23.31 (ROI +18.7%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 80.
Position LTO: Horses finishing third or worse last time out
have produced just 1 winner from 62 qualifiers for a loss of £47.00
(ROI –75.8%).
Career starts:Horses having five or more previous runs have
produced 3 winners from 56 qualifiers for a loss of £43.50 (ROI -77.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten a length or more LTO have
provided just 2 winners from 73 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -74%).
Trainers: Trainers who have failed to register a win with
any of their last 12 runners (all flat races) have produced just 2 winners
from 38 qualifiers for a loss of £31.59 (ROI -83.1%).
Trainers: Just 1 win from 24 for Irish trained horses (the
last 23 since 1997 have all lost).
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): 7 wins from 21 for a profit of £1.22
(ROI +5.8%).
Favourites LTO: Horses that were favourite on their most recent
start have produced 8 winners from 64 qualifiers but they produced a
big loss of £33.82 (ROI -52.8%). Indeed all 25 LTO favourites that were
beaten in that race have come on to lose here as well.
Career Wins: 13 of the last 20 winners had previously won
twice or more. They have provided 65% of the winners from around 50%
of the total runners.

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has
been dominated by the top 3 in the betting.

Indeed the market tends to be a very strong guide with just one genuine
outsider (price 16/1+) from 80 qulaifiers managing to win. LTO winners should be noted, while horses
beaten a length or more LTO should be avoided as should beaten favourites. Trainers with a fairly
recent win are well worth noting in this race

Newmarket 3.05 – Middle Park – 6f (Group 1) 2yo colts / geldings

POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 14 of the last 20 winners came from the top two in
the betting.
Price: 12 of the last 20 winners have been priced 7/2 or shorter.
Backing all 28 qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £4.15
(ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: All of the last 20 winners finished in the first
three LTO.
Career wins: Horses that have won at least three times in
their career have produced 8 winners from 29 qualifiers. Backing all
qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £39.83 (ROI +137.3%).
LTO course: 5 of the last 9 winners raced at Ascot last time
out (from 9 runners).
Trainers: French and Irish trainers have saddled 6 winners
from 27 runners. Focusing solely on those that started first or second
in the betting the results improve to 6 wins from just 12 runners.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Just 2 wins from 70 runners for horses priced 10/1
or bigger.
Position LTO: Horses finishing fourth or worse last time out
have provided 0 winners from 27 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites:There have been 9 winning favourites from 20 for
a small profit of 32 pence!
Newmarket Trainers: Trainers from Newmarket dominated the
race in the mid to late 90s with wins in ’93, ’94, ’96, ’97 and ’98.
However, they have saddled just 1 winner since then from 27 runners.

Trends analysis: The market has dominated this race with the top two in the betting providing 70% of theIndeed the last 12 seasons has seen the winner priced in single figures.

All the winners finished in the first three LTO so ignore any horse
that did not.

Not many horses come into the race having won at least three times already, but note any runners that do.

Also note horses from France or Ireland that are well fancied (top
2 in the betting).

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

=====================================

Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M P Tregoning 5 13 38.5 +£3.30 +25.4 8.20
H R A Cecil 7 34 20.6 +£12.00 +35.3 7.15

Newmarket trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J H M Gosden 80 416 19.2 +£115.79 +27.8 5.25
J R Best 10 56 17.9 +£56.75 +101.3 3.05, 3.05, 4.15
H Candy 14 85 16.5 +£33.25 +39.1 3.40
A P O’Brien 16 98 16.3 +£21.89 +22.3 3.05, 3.05, 3.05

Racing Tip For Lingfield

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION – SAMARINDA
7/1 Betfred Bet365

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

To read more from Guy click here  Horse Betting Blog

Horse Racing System Bet For Saturday

This bet comes from the NH Portfolio over at www.PunterProfits.com

The Nh Portfolio is actually a collection of six different horse racing systems.

Todays bet qualifes under not just one system but two.

Hostorically these “double qualifers” have produced stronger results than the single qualifers. ( which are pretty darn good anyhow )

Over ten years or so of records these double qualifers have produced a strike rate of 46% and a return on investment of over 20% at starting price.

Market Rasen 4.50 Arctic Shadow  SYSTEM A & D

Best priced 15/8 centrebet

lots of 7/4 available as well Ladbrokes , bsquare , Bet365 etc.

Course Favourites Stats

This is a small snippet from a comprehensvive
client message from Dave Renham over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

This section looks at the stats for favourites at courses in certain
race types

(data taken from 2002 to 2008)

Beverley favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
46
175
26.3
-£29.69
-17.0
3.20,
4.25
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
99
381
26.0
+£1.36
+0.4
2.45,
3.55
3yo+
maidens
24
59
40.7
-£4.23
-7.2
5.00
3yo
only maidens
12
26
46.2
-£4.02
-15.5
2yo
maidens
51
125
40.8
-£0.96
-0.8
2.15
Carlisle favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
26
87
29.9
+£3.07
+3.5
9.05
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
35
184
19.0
-£41.77
-22.7
7.05,
8.35, 9.35
3yo+
maidens
11
16
68.8
+£2.31
+14.4
3yo
only maidens
4
12
33.3
-£4.63
-38.6
2yo
maidens
33
72
45.8
+£7.84
+10.9
7.35
Haydock favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
46
167
27.5
-£21.25
-12.7
2.20,
4.35
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
86
387
22.2
-£34.40
-8.9
2.55,
5.10, 5.45
3yo+
maidens
31
49
63.3
+£21.61
+44.1
3yo
only maidens
22
41
53.7
+£4.64
+11.3
2yo
maidens
51
140
36.4
+£2.45
+1.8
Leicester Favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
36
132
27.3
-£13.31
-10.1
2.30
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
60
246
24.4
-£7.02
-2.9
3.35,
4.10
3yo+
maidens
24
47
51.1
+£1.85
+3.9
5.20
3yo
only maidens
23
43
53.5
+£11.64
+27.1
2yo
maidens
59
157
-£37.60
-20.28
-12.9
Nottingham Favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
49
183
26.8
-£15.98
-8.7
8.50
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
75
313
24.0
-£28.74
-9.2
6.20,
8.20, 9.20
3yo+
maidens
21
50
42.0
-£8.55
-17.1
3yo
only maidens
36
85
42.4
-£6.96
-8.2
2yo
maidens
61
184
33.2
-£30.12
-16.4
7.20,
7.50
Sandown favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
53
208
25.5
-£19.36
-9.3
4.55,
5.30
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
70
250
28.0
+£26.14
+10.5
2.40
3yo+
maidens
15
26
57.7
+£7.85
+30.2
3yo
only maidens
10
28
35.7
-£2.75
-9.8
2yo
maidens
42
102
41.2
+£8.36
+8.2

Derby Racing System Bets

Derby Racing System Bets

These bets come from a system that has been devised after examining the past 22 years of The Derby.

Long Term Results are

Bets 42
Wins 14
Profit +£59.25 (to £1 level stakes)
Return on Investment +141.1%
14 winning years out of 21 (Strike Rate 67%)

Pretty impressive stats I am sure you would agree.

Qualifiers for this year’s Derby are

Sea The Stars best price 3/1 centrebet
and
Black Bear Island best price 9/1 William Hill

The System is question is part of the Big Race Systems bonus package over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Horse Racing System Bets

The racing system bets below come from a system called The 50% System.

So called as the strike rate going back over years of research has been .. you guessed it,  50%.

This is one of the systems monitored over at www.PunterProfits.com

50% SYSTEM -

2.45 Bev ORPEN ARMS

5.10 Newm SEAWAY

5.45 Catt WINGED HARRIET