Over Under Soccer Bet

Louise the lady soccer tipster who uses her maths degree to battle the bookmakers with had a great weekend last weekend with five out of seven winning over under soccer bets.  ( Rather than try and be a jack of all trades she is firmly focussed on the over under betting market )

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Premier League Over Under Betting Tip

Premier League Over Under Betting Tip

 

Below is one of several tips for today from Louise ( who has a degree in mathematics )

Louise’s service focusses only on Over Under Soccer Betting

One thing I like about it is the fact that she lists her own calculated ” True Odds “.
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League One Soccer Betting Tip

Our free Saturday soccer tip this week comes from Lousie a degree qualified mathematician and  over under soccer betting specialist.

A lady of few waffly words as you can see.

She lets her numbers do the talking.

So far the bookies have definately not liked what they have said :)

To read a bit more about Louise go visit her website at

this link ==> Soccer Tip

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League – English League One
Kick Off Time – 15:00 BST
Teams & Selection – Yeovil v Bournemouth OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.97 Pinnacle
Stake – 1.5pts

After the number crunching on this game I reckon the price to be around 1.78

 

 

 

Soccer Tip On Over Under Market

A free soccer tip today for the blog from Lady tipster Louise from the Soccer Tip website. What do ladies know about football? Well in Louise’s case obvioulsy a fair bit judging by her historic bank growing record.  In her case she does have a degree in maths so she does have an edge on posts punters male or female when it comes to issues such as working out what the true odds for an event should be.

Her free tip this weekend comes from the American MLS a league she has been very past profitable on.

She will very soon be having action on the likes of the Premier League but is holding off for now till this seasons team form is more bedded in.

Anyhow here is her free tip for today.

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League – America MLS
Kick Off Time – 21:00 BST
Teams & Selection – Montreal v DC United OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.82 Pinnacle – 1.80 PaddyPower
Stake – 1.5pts
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the price to be around 1.62


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Special Deal

See page below for a cheap test of the Soccer Tip service.

http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/offers/sports-betting-blog/

 

 

 

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Each Way Betting Explained

Each Way Betting. What is Each Way Value?

What really makes a good each way bet?

Firstly lets just re-iterate exactly what an each way bet is. It’s
a bet traditionally offered by UK bookmakers consisting of two separate
bets: a win bet and a place bet. For the win bet to give a return the
selection must win, for the place bet to win the selection must either
win or finish in one of the predetermined places, i.e. 2nd
or 3rd. Your stake for an each way bet will be the same on
both parts, so if you bet “£5 each way”, you are betting £5 win
and £5 to place – a total of £10.

Ok so that’s the simple stuff out of the way.

Now let’s talk value.

Betting at value is essentially placing a bet at bigger odds than what
the true chances dictate the odds should be. Of course finding out what
the true chances of something happening are and therefore the relevant
odds isn’t an exact science. Therefore it simply comes down to a matter
of finding “perceived value”.

So with an each way bet we need to evaluate both the win odds AND the
place odds to get an idea of how the prices stack up against our ideas
of a value price.

Opportunities arise with each way betting because the place price offered
against a horse is a fixed fraction (normally 1/5 or ¼) of its win
price, and so may bear little or no relation to its actual chance of
being placed.

There are general misconceptions that
say that betting each way at odds under 5/1 represents a poor bet. And
often horses quoted around 25/1 are touted as great each way bets, on
the basis that the place pays around 5/1.

I’m going to suggest to you that ANY price can represent each way value.

Whether its 10/1 or 10/11.

The calculation that most people do before placing an each way bet is
to work out their returns should the horse only place. So a horse placing
at 4/1 (1/5 place odds) would give a return of £9 from a £5 each way
bet – a loss of £1 overall.

To look at this potential loss in isolation is to look at each way betting
from a narrow and blinkered angle.
This is an entirely wrong perspective in my opinion.

You see lets assume that the horse in question is actually a true 4/1
shot, and therefore it’d win one in every 5 runnings of the same race
on average.

Buts lets also assume that there is very little else other than the
first three in the betting with any real form. And therefore that it
would place on average 80% of the time.

Finding 10 bets like this could easily give the following results from
£5 each way bets:

4/1 unplaced -£10

4/1 3rd -£1

4/1 2nd -£1

4/1 Won +£24

4/1 2nd -£1

4/1 2nd -£1

4/1 unplaced -£10

4/1 3rd -£1

4/1 2nd -£1

4/1 Won +£24

Total P/L +£22

Remember this is a true 4/1 shot, so it would only ever be a break even
situation betting win only. But because of the favourable place terms,
we’ve turned a break even series of bets, into a winning one.

Of course finding horses that have about 80% chance of placing yet can
be backed at 4/1 each way do not come up everyday, but they do come
up more often than you might think.

Two obvious places you might find instances where the place odds make
each way betting favourable are 8 or 9 runner races with an odds-on favourite and 16 runner handicaps.

The principle is the same whatever the race though. It is comparing
the each way place price against the actual chances that will reveal the true value of an each way bet.

Paul Ruffy –

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Paul Ruffy is a respected horse racing advisor
specialising in each way betting on uk horse racing.

Visit his site for more info

Click Here ==> Visit Paul’s Site

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Chepstow Racing Tip

A good effort from Guy last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from Betfred as

#1 Their best odds guantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and other free racing tip from Guy.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

To visit Guys site click here ==> Betting Advice

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C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

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Racing Tip At Ripon

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Each Way Value

Each Way Value:

2.20 Lingfield 8. Uncle Dermot 0.5pt e/w (7/2 Totesport , or 10/3 VC)

4.40 Lingfield 3. Enriching 0.2pt e/w (16/1 PaddyPower Bet365  VC )

Bonus Bets/Comments:-

England to win the Cricket World Cup
1% stake at 9/1 Stan James
They have been hot and cold in the tornament, but have done well against
the top sides, when drawing with India and beating South Africa who are as
short as 3/1 and 4/1. Having won the 20/20 World Cup and then added the
Ashes this squad is one that has the belief required to win. The squad
players that have come into the side have done well and a likely Quarter
Final against SriLanka or Pakistan looks winnable, which would leave them
just two matches from glory. I dont like to back England -at any sport, and
Crickets not my bag most of the time, but this team do look a shade of
value at 9/1 with only 8 teams in it.

This advice was supplied by Paul Ruffy

His service specialises in each way betting on horse racing but he does throw in the odd extra bonus sports bet as well.

If at all interested in his service ..well the good news is he
offers a FREE TRIAL.
It is not very obvious on his site but click the link below scroll to page
base and hit the subscribe button.
You will then note the free trial option.

Click Here ==> Visit Paul’s Site

Saturday Football Betting Tips

This weekends free soccer betting tips come from 99Reds.

99Reds is an ex lower league manager and player who now uses his stats and ratings to find value in the soccer betting markets. He is one of a team of experts over at the Football Bets website.

His records there indicate you would be sitting on in excess of £5000 net profit had you backed each of his advices so far with a £100 level stake.

His fellow experts at the football bets website are also doing pretty well.

See here ==> Football Results

Anyhow here is what his stats and research indicate offers a bit of value for today.

Win Double   Forest and Norwich   23/20   Tote   1pt  -

Forest have 7 wins and 2 draws from their 9 games at home to bottom half teams plus
Preston have a number of injuries that will deplete them tonight and they have not
kept a clean sheet against a top half side away. In the game at Norwich,
Doncaster have multiple injuries and have only taken 2 points from 8 away
games against top half teams and they have also failed to keep a clean sheet away to a top half team.

Bournemouth v Sheffield Wednesday   Over 2.5 goals   10/11   William Hill   1pt  -

Bournemouth have a home record of 10-6 for Overs and Wednesday have an
away record of 9-6 for Overs, which relates to 4/6, so 10/11 does give value.
Also Bournemouth home games to bottom half teams are averaging 3.3 goals
and Wednesday away games to top half teams are averaging 3.4 goals.

Asian Handicap Betting

ASIAN HANDICAP:

A market that causes a great deal of confusion but often offers very good value. It got the name “Asian handicap” because it is the preferred form of betting in the far east. Profit margins are far lower than most other markets, often just a couple of percent. I will try to explain how they work as simply as I can. Don’t worry if you don’t understand it straight away, many people don’t, take your time and read over what I have written a couple of times. You can play around with it on Betfair too, just pick a game, click on Asian handicaps and click the “back” box. A bet slip will appear on the right hand side explaining what you win or lose from each outcome.

The simplest type of Asian handicap is exactly the same bet as draw no bet. Both teams will appear with a +0 next to them, the bet is void in the event of a draw.

Another type of Asian handicap is to back a team +1 or -1. You might back an outsider +1 or back a strong favourite -1. Backing a strong favourite -1 is basically backing them to win by more than one goal. If they win by exactly one goal then you lose nothing and your stake is returned as the one goal margin they have won by is cancelled out by the -1 handicap. If they win by two or more then your bet is a winner.

A slightly more complicated Asian handicap is backing a team to win +1.5 or -1.5. This should be thought of in exactly the same way as over/under 2.5 goals. If the team you are backing -1.5 wins by two goals then your bet is a winner, if they win by only one goal then your bet is a loser.

It is the same as backing a team -1 only you have no insurance if the team wins by one goal. Remember if you back a team -1 and they win by one, then you get your money back, but if you back them -1.5 and they win by one then the bet is a loser. The most complicated Asian handicap is when the previous two bets are combined and you are given the option of backing a team -1 & -1.5. Although it looks very complicated it is actually quite simple. All you have to do to understand it is split the bet in two. Half of your bet is for “team A” to win -1 and the other half of your stake is for “team A” to win -1.5. If we back team A at evens to win -1 & -1.5 for a £100 stake, then the following will happen:

Team A wins by 2 goals or more = win £100 (Both parts of the bet have won)

Team A wins by 1 goal = lose £50 (you get your money back for the first part of the bet but lose £50 on the second part)

Team A does not win = lose £100 (both parts of your bet have lost)

Asian handicaps are most useful if you want to back a short priced favourite to win by a big margin or for an outsider to only lose by a small margin or to draw. For example, if you back a team +1 then you have both the draw and them winning as positive results.

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This was written by a professional odds compiler.
More from him in the free soccer betting course over at www.Football-Bets.co.uk