Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

Saturday, March 27th, 2010 at 12:37 pm  
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Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).
Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run: 14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).
Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints): 4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints): 2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.

Cheltenham Statistics

Saturday, November 15th, 2008 at 1:30 pm  
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Advised Bets - Opera Mundi (2.00 Cheltenham) – win  ( 10/3 at Betfred )
Maljimar 14/1 Tote / Barbers Shop 7/1 Tote (2.35 Cheltenham) – 2 x half stakes win bets

Firstly some 15 year statistics for the 2.00 at Cheltenham.

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.

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This Message was provided by Dave Renham of Racing Trends