Saturday Racing Bets from RacingTrends.co.uk
Saturday Horse Racing Bets From www.RacingTrends.co.uk
Gustavo (1.25 Sandown) –
best price 33/1 (sporting bet / Skybet) – EACH WAY
Approved Force (3.05 Sandown)
– take 22/1 best odds guaranteed atWilliam Hill – EACH WAY
Diriculous (3.30 Great Leighs)
- take 2/1 best odds guaranteed at William Hill / Stan James / Boyle Sports – WIN
Saturday Racing
First some trends – 15 years worth
2.35 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase – 2 miles (Grade 1)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 12 of the last 15 winners have come from the top three in the betting. |
| Price: 9 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 8 of the last 15 winners. |
| Seasonal debutants: Horses making their seasonal debuts have a good record with 7 wins from 25 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a £8.50 profit (ROI +34%). |
| Market position LTO: Horses that were first or second favourites last time out have provided 13 winners of the 15 winners. |
| LTO course: Horses that raced at Exeter last time out have a good record with 4 of the 17 qualifiers going onto win this race. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a £5.83 profit (+34.3%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses ranked fifth or higher in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £33.00 (ROI -82.5%). |
| Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 44 qualifiers. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse last time out (and completed the course) have produced just 2 winners from 34 qualifiers for a loss of £22.50 (ROI -66.2%). |
| LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time out have a surprisingly poor record with only 3 wins from 37 qualifiers for a loss of £25.67 (ROI -69.4%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints) from 16 for a small loss of 82 pence. |
| Age: 5 year olds have won 3 races from 8 qualifiers (SR 37.5%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 7 year olds have won 5 races from 23 qualifiers (SR 21.7%); 8 year olds have won 3 races from 23 qualifiers (SR 13%); 9 year olds and older have won 2 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 6.1%). |
Trends analysis: favourites
have a fairly good record, but it looks best to concentrate on the top three
in the betting as they have provided 80% of the winners. Indeed focusing on
horses priced 15/2 or shorter has provided every single winner in the last 15
years. From there, pay special attention to horses either making their seasonal
debuts, and/or those who were first or second in the betting on their most recent
start. Moving onto negatives, if they raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time
out this then there is almost certainly value looking elsewhere, as is there
looking for horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO (having completed
course). This process should pinpoint a clear trends pick. In terms of age,
5 years have a good record from a small number of runners, while 9 year olds
or older look poor value.
Conclusion – Master Minded
has a good trends profile; slightly better than second favourite TidalBay, but
TidalBay looks the value price of the pair to me.
3.05 Sandown – Listed handicap hurdle 2 miles ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: Second, third and fourth favourites have won 7 races from 49 qualifiers for a profit of £11.50 (ROI +23.5%). |
| Position LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £13.33 (ROI +20.2%). |
| Weight carried: The bottom five in the weights (inc. joints) have a good record with 10 wins from 82 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £23.50 (ROI +28.7%). |
| Racing Post Speed ratings: Topspeed in the Racing Post has had 5 top rated / joint top rated winners for a profit of £29.25 (ROI +162.5%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 3 winning favourites from 15 qualifiers for a loss of £8.17 (ROI -57.5%). |
| Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 88 qualifiers for a loss of £62.00 (ROI -70.5%). |
| Weight carried: The top five in the weights have a poor record with only 2 wins from 73 qualifiers and a loss of £69.67 (ROI -88.2%). |
| Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 7 weeks or more have produced 0 winners from 35 qualifiers. |
| Beaten favourites: 25 beaten favourites have run in this race and all have lost. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have won 5 races from 49 qualifiers (SR 10.2%); 5 year olds have won 5 races from 74 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 6 year olds have won 4 races from 51 qualifiers (SR 7.8%); 7 year olds plus have won 1 race from 45 qualifiers (SR 2.2%). |
Trends analysis: favourites
have a poor record which is no surprise considering the race usually attracts
a big field and hence is a competitive affair. Having said that outsiders have
a poor record also, so it seems best to focus on horses priced under 20/1. The
bottom five in the weights have won 67% of the races from just 37% of the runners,
so these horses merit close scrutiny, as do horses won last time out. Horses
to avoid seem to be horses at the top of the weights, beaten favourites last
time out, 7 year olds and older, and horses that have been off the track for
7 or more weeks.
Conclusion – from a trends
perspective Spear Thistle looks the one to be on.
At an each way price Approved
Force looks interesting. Had good form as 3yo and he looks overpriced. Hills
offer best odds guaranteed at 22/1 and that rates good each way value.
2.00 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – 2 miles (Grade
2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 10 winning favourites (including joints) from 17 qualifiers for a profit of £4.81 (ROI +28.3%). |
| Market: 14 of the last 15 winners have come from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: 14 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter. |
| LTO winners: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out. |
| Recent form: 23 horses have come into the race having finished first or second on all of their last three starts and 8 have won. |
| Jumping: All 15 winners came into the race having never fallen / unseated previously in their careers. |
| LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record with 6 of the 20 qualifiers going onto win this race. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses third or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 50 qualifiers for a loss of £43.00 (ROI – 86%). |
| Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 27 qualifiers. |
| Course winners: Course winners have only won once from 15 runners for a loss of £12.62 (ROI -84.1%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 and 5 year olds have won 5 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 6 year olds have won 7 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 21.2%); 7 year olds plus have won 3 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 13.6%). |
Trends analysis: the top
two in the market have dominated this event winning a all bar one of the races,
with favourites doing especially well winning 67% of them. From here you need
to focus on good jumpers as none of the winners had previous fallen in their
careers. Last time out winners have a good record, while horses that ran at
Cheltenham last time out have a good record also.
Conclusion – of the front
two in the market, second favourite Araldur has the better profile and at 7/2
looks better value.
——————–
1.25 Sandown – this is an
open handicap hurdle but one horse stands out for me at the early prices. Gustavo
hails from a stable that seems to be running into form and he has plenty of
other positives as well. He has a good record fresh, has a good record on right
handed tracks (4 wins, 2 placed from 8 ) and acts on the ground. The jockey
looks a potential negative but he has an 18% strike rate for Venetia Williams
so perhaps that is not a worry. At 33/1 best price at sporting bet and Sky bet
/ mid 40s on Betfair he looks a worthwhile punt. If you don’t have an account
with sporting bet / Sky bet then take the best odds guaranteed at either bet
365 or William Hill (both price up at 25/1).
3.30 Great Leighs – Diriculous
looks a solid favourite and 2/1 looks a fair bet to me.
This message was provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk