Racing Tip for Catterick

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

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Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Guy Ward ( The Mathematician )

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing System Bets

Horse Racing System Selections

The following bets come from the increasingly famous
PunterProfits NH Portfolio.

This betting  method has been tested for over 15 years horse racing.
It averages 50 points level stakes profit each year.

Long term strike rate is about 40%

For more info click here ==>  Horse Racing System

SYSTEM C
Chp 4.45 Fongoli  ( 5/2 Coral , PaddyPower,  stan james )

SYSTEM D
Ban 3.20 Hello Nod  ( 5/1 William Hill )

If you are interested in a free trial of the PunterProfits service
email their admin address and ask about a free trial for sports betting blog readers.
http://www.punterprofits.com/contact.php

Derby Racing System Bets

Derby Racing System Bets

These bets come from a system that has been devised after examining the past 22 years of The Derby.

Long Term Results are

Bets 42
Wins 14
Profit +£59.25 (to £1 level stakes)
Return on Investment +141.1%
14 winning years out of 21 (Strike Rate 67%)

Pretty impressive stats I am sure you would agree.

Qualifiers for this year’s Derby are

Sea The Stars best price 3/1 centrebet
and
Black Bear Island best price 9/1 William Hill

The System is question is part of the Big Race Systems bonus package over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Horse Racing System Bets

The racing system bets below come from a system called The 50% System.

So called as the strike rate going back over years of research has been .. you guessed it,  50%.

This is one of the systems monitored over at www.PunterProfits.com

50% SYSTEM -

2.45 Bev ORPEN ARMS

5.10 Newm SEAWAY

5.45 Catt WINGED HARRIET

Saturday Racing Analysis from RacingTrends

Main Account Bets – Haajes (4.45 Ling) – take 6/1 (Corals, Sky bet, sporting bet) WIN

Firstly some 15 year trends for three of the big races today:

1.05 Ascot Reynoldstown Chase

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 9 winning favourites from 15 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £8.48 (ROI +56.5%).
Market: There were 4 winning second favourites, so 13 of the 15 came from the top 2 in the market.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out have an excellent combined record with 9 wins from just 19 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £11.68 (ROI +61.5%). Indeed, if you focus on last time winners at those courses the record improves to 8 wins from just 15 qualifiers for a profit of £12.68 (ROI +90.6%).
Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have produced 13 of the 15 winners.
LTO winners: 14 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Career wins: Horses with 4 or more career wins produced 11 of the last 15 winners.
Racing Post Ratings: The top rated horses fromRacing Post ratings (formerly Postmark) has found the winner on 7 occasions.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 32 qualifiers.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have produced 0 winners from 20.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 7 year olds have produced

8 winners from 38 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 8 year olds plus have produced 2 winners

from 37 qualifiers (SR 5.4%).

Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some very strong positive pointers. 13 of the last 15 winners have been one of the top two in the betting market so this is a definite starting point with preference to favourites who have an outstanding record. From there look for last time out winners, although it is likely that the top two in the market would have won LTO. Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out would be the next port of call considering their excellent record. Finally, it should be noted that the last 28 horses aged 8 or older have lost, so it is best to concentrate on younger horses (7yo or younger with slight preference to 5 and 6yos).

Conclusion – Breedsbreeze the favourite at a best priced 5/4 looks a solid trends horse.

2.55 Haydock Rendlesham Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Days since last run: Horses that return to the track within 2 weeks have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. The winners included all 3 horses that won the race at 10/1 or bigger (10/1, 12/1, 100/1).
Race type LTO: Horses that ran in a handicap last time out won 7 races, and last time out winners from handicaps have won 3 from 10.
Price: 10 of the last 15 winners were priced 4/1 or bigger last time out.
French breds: 5 of the last 7 winners have been French bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a surprisingly poor record with 1 win from 17 for a loss of £13.50 (ROI -79.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)

from 16 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.87 (ROI -9.8%).

Market: The top 3 in the betting provided 10 of the last 15 winners.
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have won just 1 from 23, but the price of the

winner was 100/1.

Class LTO: 7 of the 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO. 8 of the 15 winners raced

in a higher or the same class LTO.

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 3 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 8 year olds have won 4 from 24 qualifiers (16.7%); 9 years olds plus have produced 4 winners from 29 qualifiers (SR 13.9%).

Trends analysis: the market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. However, any horse returning to the track within 2 weeks is worth close scrutiny, and with 3 fairly decent priced winners from this stat, this is where some value may be found.Horses that ran in a handicap last time have a better record than one would think and the handful who won that handicap LTO have definitely been worth noting. Horses that were 4/1 or bigger last time out have provided 66.7% of the winners – statistically this figure is normally only 40% in this grade type/grade so this is a stat worth checking out. French breds have a good recent record and any such runner demands respect. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

Conclusion – nothing really stands out trends wise and from a form perspective the race does look at match between the top 2 in the market.

2.40 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that ran at Sandown last time out have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. Backing all runners would have produced a small profit of £2.13 (ROI +9.3%).
Age: 6 year olds have a good record with 7 wins from 29 qualifiers including 4 of the last 5 winners of this race. 7 years old have a fairly good record also with 4 wins from 23.
Racing Post: Racing Post Ratings (old Postmark) have had their top rated horse win 6 times out of the last 11 races. Topspeed in the Racing Post has an even better recent record with 7 wins from the last 11 top rated horses.
Recent win: 11 of the last 15 winners won at least once in their last three races.
Position LTO: 9 of the last 15 winners won or finished 2nd LTO. They have provided 60% of the winners from 38% of the total runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: Only 1 out of 7 “odds against” favourites has won (Inglis Drever at 11/10 in 2005).
Age: Horses aged 8 or older have produced just 1 winner from 28 for a loss of £11.00 (ROI -39.3%).
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 29.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors, or horses that have worn them at some stage in their career have produced 0 winners from 19.
Beaten favourites: Beaten favourites last time out have a poor record with just 1 win from 10.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 7 winning favourites from 15, but a loss would have been made backing all of them to the tune of £2.57 (ROI -17.1%).

Trends analysis: from the positive stats perspective, preference should be for 6yos, then 7yos. Also monitor closely the selections of Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed. When they have agreed on the top rated selection they have provided 5 winners from just 9 runners. A recent win is a plus (last three starts), while it is best to ignore any runner that is or has done in the past worn blinkers or a visor.

Conclusion – not a particularly strong trends race but Whiteoak looks to fit the trends best.Having said that it looks a tough ask after a long break on not ideal ground.

Other races

1.55 Haydock – good competitive contest this.

Miko De Beauchene – Did well last season, following up Welsh National success with win in this race from a 8lblower mark. Could go well at decent odds on ground he handles.

Opera Mundi – Has a mixed record, but on soft / heavy it reads: 21112163. Solid chance.
Mon Mome – Back to his best this season when winning at Cheltenham in December. Seemed to have put last season which was poor behind him. Excuses in Welsh National next time (race probably came too quick); handles ground and a player. Record on soft/heavy reads 2U3612114224382.
Cornish Sett – in good form last 2 starts including runner-up in Welsh National from this handicap mark.

Nenuphar Collonges – record on soft/heavy reads 61212217. Should go well with a good round of jumping.

Rambling Minster – Won for eighth time in career at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Up in the weights in a stronger race is the concern.

CharacterBuilding – decent chance on best form. Cheekpieces may help; McCoy will help more.

Eric’s Chram – Front-runner who has fair form but his jumping can be sloppy and that will be a problem.
Glasker Mill – slight concern about the trip but should not be dismissed.
Sherwoods Folly – fifth in Welsh National last time and should be on the premises if able to reproduce that sort of effort here.
Beat The Boys – won 4 times as a novice last year. Form of the yard still a bit suspect so passed over.
D’Argent – stable second string but trip will suit.
Nadover – potentially well weighted and goes on heavy. Soft/heavy record reads:

5421113P713737. Not out of it.
CarnivalTown – handicap mark looks a bit harsh at present.
L’Aventure – quirky type who I’d always rather be against than for.

Conclusion – very open race. My two against the field would be Mon Mome and Opera Mundi.

Onto the all weather:

3.30 Kempton – Wotashirtfull is around even money in this 3 runner sprint. He should win.

3.35 Lingfield – Majuro looks the value option here in an open little affair.

4.05 Kempton – Millfield and Tous Les Deux head the market and these definitely look the two most likely winners. Tous Les Deux would just get my vote.

4.10 Lingfield – Quick Single at around 5/1 may be a bit of value in this maiden.

4.45 Lingfield – Haajes looks overpriced in this good sprint. He is nearer a 4/1 chance on my tissue and so at 6/1 he rates as a bet.
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