Horse Racing System Selections

Horse Racing System Selections

The following three bets are selections from a portfolio
of researched systems put out under the banner of the NH 500
portfolio on Dave Renham’s PunterProfits site.
( just one of the many interesting things going on there )

I put some of these up here on sports betting blog a
month or two back.

If my fading memory serves me right I believe there
were three out of four winners that day.
Read the rest of this entry

Horse Racing System Tips

Several tips from a racing system devised by Dave Renham for you today.

Well actually not one system.. more so from  a group or portfolio of systems.

He calls it the NH 500 Portfolio

For more info on it see here Horse Racing System Portfolio

Below are todays selections

 

NH 500 PORTFOLIO –

1.50 Warwick Rocky Creek 13/8   William Hill
2.05 Kempton Bally Legend 7/2   Stan JamesCoralBetfred
2.05 Kempton Midnight Haze 18/1   Paddy Power
3.00 Warwick The New One  8/11   William HillCoralBet365

 

NB Odds above are a copy of what was advised by email earlier this morning.

As ever odds are subject to change.

Live racing odds you can find here http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing

National Hunt Betting System Tip

A few weeks ago I mentioned a researched methodology from the PunterProfits website called the Nh 500

See long term research phase profits on this post

The live testing phase is producing some very good results and is very roughly £900 ahead to £100 bets at early prices.  That is after about nine bets live testing phase.. so early days but encouraging and backing up the most interesting long term research data.

There are two qualifers today from this methodology and I will post one of them here

Rajnagan 4.55 Cheltenham  you can get 12/1 BOG  boylesport or Victor Chandler and about 16/1  at Betfair.

NB The research data profits assume backing all on the nose.

Some will be at big prices however and the personal choice will always be there to go each way on such occassion.

If  interested in more information on this Nh 500 national hunt betting methodology go visit PunterProfits.com and ask about it.  It has spawned from their private member area and as of today there is no outer info webpage about it as yet.

 

NH 500 Portfolio Horse Racing Tip

This free racing tip today is from a new method now available to full members over at PunterProfits.com.

So far it has been done on the quiet only to full members there.

There is no info on it as yet on the outer PunterProfits site.

Christened the NH 500 Portfolio the rough idea is that several well researched methodologies are combined into a single portfolio to provide a diversified approach.

The data below is the researched data.

Everything below is based on Starting  Price and as such is conservative compared to real life returns making use of betting Exchanges such as Betfair of bookmaker early prices especially those offer Best Odds Guaranteed.

Year wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
2003 112 322 34.78 25.66 7.97
2004 82 257 31.91 6.53 2.54
2005 84 247 34.01 9.34 3.78
2006 88 286 30.77 134.62 47.07
2007 87 275 31.64 35.01 12.73
2008 78 275 28.36 20.95 7.62
2009 103 346 29.77 149.76 43.28
2010 103 333 30.93 58.95 17.70
2011 98 344 28.49 74.38 21.62
2012 75 243 30.86 103.14 42.44
Totals 910 2928 31.08 618.34 21.12

Looking to the future the key concept is one of educated risk.

History certainly looks very positive.

Only two past selections emailed out to PunterProfits.com full members so far.

One loser then a winner yesterday at 10/3 early odds.

 

There is one selection today from the above methodology

4.00 Fontwell – Venetian Lad – 9/1 BOG with William Hill , Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James

Such a tip is best viewed sensibly.

In no way is it a nailed on winner.

Based on long term stats data of 21% ROI and nothing else one might assess it to be a true 7/1 chance but with 9/1 available at the bookies.

So it will still lose 7 times out of 8 but that one winner in eight will give you a net profitover the long term.

Bet a few hundred such value horses and you should be well ahead.

Go contact PunterProfits if you want extra detail data on the NH 500 such as a detailed spreadsheet containing info on all 2928 past qualifiers.

Such data is useful for stage two of any good betting approach that being sensible and suitable bank roll management.

 

 

2 year old maidens

Sometimes in life you come across arrogant sods who
deludedly believe they know everything about a subject.

Best thing to do is to pity a little such sorts as their attitude
can hinder them from learning and improving.

I will hold my hands up and say I most definitely
DO NOT know everything about betting.
The reality is I am learning all the time.

Just this week for example I learnt quite a bit about
2 year old maiden races..or more specifically those
that are run late in the season from September to November.

My teacher was Dave Renham ( ex racing post spotlight writer )
who produced a highly detailed research article
on this area of racing for full members over at the PunterProfits site.

Copied below is a small snippet from this research article
where Dave examines these late season 2 year old maidens
investigating how race favourites in such races fare dependant on trainer.

 

========================================

Who are the trainers to follow when their 2yo maidens start favourite at this time of the year?

Here is a table showing all trainers that have secured 8 or more wins.

 

Trainer
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Sir Mark Prescott
8
12
66.7
+£6.64
+55.3
Roger Charlton
22
39
56.4
+£14.36
+36.8
Henry Candy
8
16
50.0
+£8.96
+56.0
Bryan Smart
11
23
47.8
+£7.38
+32.1
Michael Bell
16
34
47.1
+£3.62
+10.7
John Gosden
44
94
46.8
+£13.10
+13.9
Mark Johnston
50
107
46.7
+£17.95
+16.8
Marcus Tregoning
10
22
45.5
+£2.67
+12.1
Sir Michael Stoute
50
118
42.4
-£0.57
-0.5
Saeed Bin Suroor
44
104
42.3
+£2.79
+2.7
Brian Meehan
23
55
41.8
+£1.80
+3.3
Paul Cole
10
25
40.0
-£1.75
-7.0
Tim Easterby
8
20
40.0
-£0.46
-2.3
Peter Chapple-Hyam
15
38
39.5
-£6.92
-18.2
Henry Cecil
13
33
39.4
-£3.10
-9.4
Mahmood Al Zarooni
9
24
37.5
+£3.64
+15.2
Richard Fahey
10
27
37.0
-£1.12
-4.1
William Haggas
12
33
36.4
-£5.28
-16.0
Amanda Perrett
9
25
36.0
-£4.40
-17.6
Mick Channon
19
54
35.2
-£2.70
-5.0
Jeremy Noseda
10
29
34.5
-£5.42
-18.7
Richard Hannon
34
100
34.0
-£1.94
-1.9
John Dunlop
20
75
26.7
-£28.54
-38.1
It is not surprising to see so many of the top trainers in this list. Many of their better two year olds will be running at this time of the season. Prescott, Charlton, Candy and Smart do have impressive records. On the other hand John Dunlop’s record is remarkably poor in comparison.
========================================
Picture a betting shop with 100 racing punters within in.
How many would have any clue what so ever about such cold hard facts?Most likely zero or possibly just one.
That one armed with more info than anyone else in the room… could be you.The PunterProfits full member area contains a wealth of such research on different topics.
There are also many opportunities to pick up simple to use daily tips if you
prefer to follow what others say as opposed to assess and calculate for yourself.

If at all interested in testing that site out, contact PunterProfits and
tell them you heard about them here on sports betting blog and ask
about a free trial for sports betting blog viewers.

To visit PunterProfits click here ==> Horse Racing Research


Betting For Bread

I recall a story from a cousin of mine who got a summer job
in a factory that baked bread.
His job was bagging the bread or feeding bags into a bagging machine.
The exact same type of bread would be put into two different kinds of bag.

One was supermarket own brand as sold for £x
One was a fancier branded bag and that bread sold for £2x

People were not paying more for better bread.
They were paying more for a better bag :)

The same applies in many walks of life.
Tipping no different.
Some tipsters put a lot of effort into glossy presentation and charge a premium.
Strangely many buyers of certain mentality are drawn to higher ticket price items
as they associate cost with quality.

When looking at a Tipster service try and bear the bread story above in mind.
Try and cut through the gloss hype and presentation and instead focus on the facts of numbers.
On the net the opposite is true as well of course.
There are sites and tipsters with good results
who do a bad job of glossy presentation and are available at cheapish fees.

One example of that perhaps is the full member forum at the PunterProfits site.
Within many skilled members post up their own system and tipping threads.
Presentation values may be low but the numbers look very good.

Up untill this week infact visitors to PunterProfits would have had little idea such profitable tipping threads existed there.
Dave however has just put up a new page where he summarises his favoured picks of member submitted tipping threads.
See info at this link ==> Horse Racing Tips

Some very imprerssive profits listed there I am sure you would agree.

One of the upsides PunterProfits members have of course is access to Dave’s regular horse racing research articles and indepth research pdf reports.
They learn from these and the feedback loop goes on to produce some very profitable member threads on the private board there.
The site I guess as well attracts some reasonably clued up experienced punters
who have gone beyond buying into hype and instead see the benefit of having well researched data to help them assess races.
Even the free membership there is worth having as free members get access
to certain research articles that can help educate them on various aspects of horse racing.

Speed Ratings System

Speed ratings are quite simply a numerical measure of how fast a horse has run.

Top Speed in the Racing Post is a well known example of such a thing.

Creating speed ratings  however goes beyond mere clocking of a race time.

Ratings are often adjusted to account for factors such as going or course layout.

Picture two horses running at different tracks for example.

Both run similar distances races in the same time.

Are those horses equal in ability?

An initial knee jerk reaction may be to say yes.

But that may not be true.

Say for example Horse A ran on a flat track with good ground.

Horse B clocked the same time over the same distance but he ran on a more uphill course with more sticky ground conditions.

If horse A & B met in a  future race my pound would be on Horse B as it clocked the same time as Horse A but under tougher conditions.

Speed Rating compilers should if they are any good try and take account of such issues when compiling their speed ratings.

 

Speed Ratings System

There are several profitable tipping type threads in the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

One of them called Speedy 3 and 4 Year Olds is based around speed ratings.

It has proven pretty succesful so far with a profit tally from May to the end of July of just over 40 points level stakes.

Qualifiers for today Saturday Aug 11th are as follows.

2-05 Ascot – Steps (6/1 general)

2-55 Haydock – Gabrial (5/2 general)

3-00 Newmarket – Zumbi (13/2 Paddy Power, Victor Chandler)

4-45 Newmarket – Uriah Heep

6-15 Lingfield – Al Janadeirya

 

Good luck if following these today.

Not every day is a winner but they are from a method that is starting to build up a very tasty long term profit level.

It is just one of several profitable threads in the PunterProfiits Full member area.

If you would like a free trial of that site contact me and I will sort it for you

 

 

Penalty Carriers in Uk Horse Racing

Horse Racing Penalty Carriers

In uk horse racing terms “a penalty” is extra weight
a horse must carry.

Normally it is applied if a horse has a second race
a few days after a win.

The official handicapper may not have had time to
reassess the horses official handicap mark
and due to the lack of time simply forces the horse
to carry penalty weight next time out.

It is I guess a system intended to stop
horses winning several times in very quick succession
from an over lenient handicap mark before the handicapper
has a chance to do his calculations and re assess the official handicap mark.

Penalty carries however have two obvious things going for them.
Having just won a  race they are obviously

- in good form

- have proven ability.

You can’t just back them all blindly and expect to make a profit however.
But with a bit of research you can certainly find past profitable niches
within penalty carriers.

See the article below for further reading.

Penalty Carriers

.

Free Horse Racing Trainer Research

Free Horse Racing Trainer Research

Each racing trainer has their own quirks and tendencies.

One area where they can differ is on seasonality or month of the year.

Different training regimes or even outlook on race targeting

can produce vastly different trainer performance results on a month by month basis.

Trainers stats for the season or year are commonly enough reported but they can be very misleading at times.

Take for example a flat trainer who perhaps roughly breaks even if followed
all season.

Dig a little deeper and you may find that early season performance is poor but he tends to pick up as the season goes on.

That slightly deeper knowledge may sway you to duck him early season but pay much more attention to him later in the season.

Anyone looking at annual stats alone may be blind to the truth.

Each month one of the small extras PunterProfits provide their full members

with is a report detailing Trainer performance records for the month ahead.

This month they have set it as free for all to view.

See ====>      July Trainer Stats

A few suggested ways to use the info:

#1 – Extra useful data for you if you like to assess races for yourself in
detail

#2 – A quick and ready reckoner to cross check any personal punt you were going to have.

ie If July trainers stats are favourable you can have more confidence you were correct.

If not perhaps revaluate your selection.

#3 – create a simple set of mechanical rules based on the report info to in

effect give yourself a mini trainer based horse racing system for July

I hope it helps add a small bit of extra edge to your performance over July.

.

Each Way Betting Discussion

Each Way Betting Advice

The following discussion from this morning regarding betting each way was lifted from the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

Worth a read to any one who has ever bet a horse each way.

PunterProfits as a site.. well worth closer investigation if you are a thinking
punter.

There are many highly profitable tipping threads in the private forums there
whose results would blow any £2k a year glossy slick marketed tipster
away.


Not sure where to post this but here goes. I thought it could be useful for
some discussions/articles on general betting techniques and practices. I think
that there are some techniques that we can all learn from each other that will
improve our returns.

I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on betting each way. I personally
rarely bet each way, with the exceptions of 8 or 16 horse races or if the market
has a particular shape eg odds on fav with 2 dangers and then mostly longer
odds. I notice a lot of threads where selections are advised each way so am
interested to understand what the stats are on this or whether it is just a
matter of personal preferences. I do think that there are definite situations
where value can be obtained each way (indeed there is a thread for 16 runner
handicaps) so hope this might be a useful topic for discussion.

Carl


I ONLY back in 16+ handicaps and always each way as its mainly the place money
I want. I have constantly made money doing this and run a small service to 10
other people and have done so for the last five years.

REASON is that in my opinion big handicaps are the only races that offer value
as bookmakers struggle to make ther books up early in these races. My problem
is that nearly all the book makers will not take my bets anymore, or just offer
me crappy sp – Betfair offers poor value early on as there is never enough money
to get a decent bet on, thats the reason I went down the tipster route.

I do not back any other method or follow anyone else on the site. Yesterday
I had 10 bets – NO winners, I few seconds unfortunatly but 5 did place @ 25/1
16/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 but still made a nice profit at just £10EW.

The method I use is Value, value value + a little bit of form smile.gif

To me its the only route to go, as following the short end of the market will
lead you to busto smile.gif

GL Padman


Hi Carl

Sounds like you are starting from the mathematical angle

of seeking race frames that offer each way advantage.

eg classic case of 8 runner race with a very short price favourite.

16 runner handicaps as per Padman again is in that realm.

It can throw up potential as well for the odd each way double.

More so a case of not taking the starting point of

I am going to find a few random horses to each way double every day,

instead .. the markets are throwing up this opportunity today

with two good each framed races.

eg say for arguments sake you have two horses with a

calculated zero positive or negative edge on the win side

but 10% value on the place side.

The double factors up that value to about 21%

It is another style of selective punt that the bookies do not like very much
smile.gif

A totally different angle on each way betting is from a bank management perspective.

eg If you ask the rough question of “I have fixed capital of £1000..

How best to I manage my betting of this method for optimal growth.”

Well sometimes an each way approach can be advantageous.

Likes of Kelly formulae will indicate % bank to use will vary with both ROI
and strike rate.

With each way betting there is potential to increase strike rate / reduce losing
run length

and draw downs etc.

That can permit additional aggression in terms of % bank which can in turn lead
to faster growth rate.

However not something to go into blindly.

More so done after research of a particular approach or method indicates is
favourable to do so.

In the back of my head I recall some research ( possibly by Dave ) indicating
each way

was less profitable than on the nose assuming random horse selections.

eg picture two betting shop mug punters who over the year each bet the same
randomly selected 500

horses at 10/1 over the course of a year.

The punter who bets each will have much more pleasurable experiences when landing

place returns. The win only punter may endure losing runs with much fewer pleasurable
days.

However add up at year end what they have won or lost and the win only punter
will have

lost less than his each way betting mate.

So for average betting shop mug punters who often focus “on the day”
rather than long term

each way can be a psychological trap set by the bookmaker.

But it is also an exploitable trap by the shrewd who can identify the correct
frame of race

where the maths and numbers move from bookmaker to punter.

Cheers

Mick