Horse Betting On Derby Day

Our usual free Saturday Horse Racing Tip from Guy over at the Mathematician Betting wesite.

To visit his site click here==>  Horse Betting

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It’s Derby Day and whilst the big race is a poor shadow of
the race it used to be we have 7 meetings today and simply
a Tsunani of Racing deliberately designed to trip us up. No
chance of covering it all. Just doing what I can where I can.

I have ended up in a lot of quality handicaps in my profiles for full members today. Several lower class races have had to be ignored with so much of it. The Catterick and Beverley cards don’t get much coverage and given time limitations it’s the Classier races that dominate.

The profit built up this year is looking healthy and there’s no long term issues at all. Still aiming for a record breaking season.
It’s in the Short term we could do with a winner and to do that will probably
mean having to sort out a difficult Class 2 Handicap today which is dangerous
and intimidating and I think I have three options today worth considering.

My favoured two options today I have kept for full members as firm advised tips.
Available in the member right now if you care to join up.

Third in my pecking order today is below for you.

Epsom 4.50

5/1 King4s Warrior, 11/2 Communicator
7/1 Spanish Duke, 8/1 A Boy Named Suzi, 8/1 Quiz Mistress
9/1 Fiery Lad, 11/1 Crassula, 12/1 Incendo, 12/1 O Ma Lad
14/1 Oceanway, 16/1 Seaside Sizzler, 20/1 Layline
20/1 Lyssio, 20/1 Mezzanisi, 40/1 Toughness Danon.

This is quite a nasty 12f handicap. It is a Class 2 race and it is a long way
from the comfort zone. I had a proper look at the Draw. Its complicated.
I wouldn’t rule any out but I think the best place to be is Stalls 3-12 and its
the very low or the very high stalls that may suffer. KING4S WARRIOR
doesnt interest me. His draw wont help him but he’s 5 and he comes from a
10f race with 1-2 runs this season. No 5 year old did that when unexposed
and I felt he was generally unsafe. Not keen on QUIZ MISTRESS as a filly
with just one run so far this season. She wont find it easy to win again with
just one run. OCEANWAY is another 4yo filly and I didnt see much in her
profile I liked up in distance. I hate LAYLINE’s break of 70 days.
I don’t want INCENDO as an exposed debutant.
Horses going from Class 5 to Class 2 races like O MA LAD
are more often that not outclassed. SEASIDE SIZZLER and
A BOY NAMED SUZI are seasonal debutants. Neither have
terrible profiles and debutants can and do win. I just dont see a good enough
reason to bet either and feel there are some more likely winners.
FIERY LAD looks a bit too risky after such a hammering last time out.

* SPANISH DUKE – I can see why he may want another run
* I can find a winner like him though so he is respected
* COMMUNICATOR – Comfortably the best profile

* Male horses aged 4
* One race this season
* Absent more than a Month
* Between 7-12 career starts
* Coming from a 12f Handicap
* Horses with this profile were 3-4 finishing W W 7 W
* COMMUNICATOR Has this profile

Selection – COMMUNICATOR

4/1 Betfred – blue square – Betfair

The Derby – Epsom 4.00

Not a race I am playing in myself.

My quick views for what they are worth.

The Derby is a shadow of its former self and sadly one
that has deteriorated as a spectacle. I think CAMELOT
will probably win. I have never been sold on BONFIRE
and don’t see enough about him to oppose this favourite.
I don’t like MAIN SEQUENCE having already raced at
12f last time. ASTROLOGY could run well and may be
the danger but I personally wouldn’t oppose CAMELOT
to win it.

Four Winning Saturdays In A Row?

Guy aka The Mathematician has given us three winning Saturday’s in a row here on Sports Betting Blog.  At circa start of Octover he also went on a short run of an 18/1 winner followed by a 6/1 winner.

Four in a  row is a big ask however.

Fingers crossed :)

Here is his free tip message for today.

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I like LOYALTY’s chance a lot mainly because he
has a good profile but also because I can tear holes
in the profiles of many of his opponents. The big
problem here is a big field and the desperate need
for luck in running and there are no guarantees of
that and this makes him unsafe and far more risky.

Friday’s  Full Service Review

Overall a pretty spicy message yesterday given time was
lost with the Racing Post website going down. I ended up
with 14 races to sort out. There were 4 of these that we
broke level in through either savers or each way bets and
they just cancelled each other out. That left 10 races and
there was a clear victory with 5 winners and 5 losers lots
better than I had hoped for. This included a 10/1 winner
so well ahead on paper and overall a good message which
shows my angles work and also shows the more you read
from the message the richer the experience should be.

L i n g f i e l d  1.50

3/1 Mabait, 9/2 Spirit Of Sharjah, 5/1 Clockmaker
6/1 Loyalty, 8/1 Night Lily, Kakatosi, 12/1 Bravo Echo
12/1 Elna Bright, 16/1 Mr Willis, 25/1 Layline
66/1 Mister Green.

* This is an all aged conditions race over a mile
* Quality race but only 18 similar races are run
* I think you have to look at the Draw here
* I looked at 8f Lingfield races with 10 + runners
* The last few races went to the following stalls
* 8 6 5 8 12 7 11 10 2 8 3 10 3 7
* I think the worst stalls have to be 1-2-3
* The last 8 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* MABAIT is Top rated but I see interesting flaws
* He has fewer runs this year than every other runner
* All exposed horses had more runs this year than him
* All horses from 7f races also had more runs
* MABAIT is exposed and comes from 7f
* Dont feel he is equipped to do that with 4 runs this year
* LAYLINE comes out badly with his absence
* ELNA BRIGHT – Doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* KAKATOSI looks unsafe to me
* He has just 1 run since last July and was thrashed in it
* Throw in a step up in distance he looks opposable
* MISTER GREEN is outclassed
* MR WILLIS comes out badly and is badly weighted
* For an exposed horse up in trip he is underraced
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH wouldnt be first choice
* Not exposed and with 1 run since last June
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH also has a bad draw in stall 1
* NIGHT LILY wouldnt be my first choice
* I think Stall 2 wont do her any favours
* She is also a Mare and comes from a conditions race
* BRAVO ECHO – Not a negative but doesnt offer much

S h o r t l i s t

* CLOCKMAKER – I see him as shortlistable but unsafe
* He comes from 7f and winning last time troubles me
* The only horse winning at 7f last time was younger
* I think there are flaws in his profile but he’s in form
* Not keen on his draw much in stall 3
* LOYALTY – Very nice profile 3 similar winners
* He is well drawn and has easily the best profile
* Will need luck in running but a clear choice

Selection

* LOYALTY 6/1 Each Way Bet365 StanJames

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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Horse Racing Tip For Newbury

NEWBURY 3.25 – THEATRE DANCE 6/1 Each Way

THEATRE DANCE is a horse that might unsettle
us especially if he has to be pushed a bit early but I
have negatives in the race. He is from a stable that
are on fire. He’s well handicapped and must now be
fit for the 1st time this season and I like his chance.

NEWBURY 3.25

7/2 Ogee, 5/1 Rey Nacarado, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Briery Fox
8/1 Scots Dragoon 8/1 Theatre Dance, 10/1 Double Dizzy
12/1 Noble Crusader , 20/1 Burren Legend.

* No Preview just the profiles I did not like
* The following are all Negatives with Poor Profiles

NOBLE CRUSADER – Wrong coming from 20f or less
MAKTU – Too much weight with a step up in trip
OGEE – Not convinced with 2 runs this year
BRIERY FOX – Too old for 1-2-3 runs this year
BURREN LEGEND – Didnt do enough last time
SCOTS DRAGOON – Exposed from Novice Chase no thanks

SELECTION – THEATRE DANCE each way is my choice

6/1 various spots inc sky Bet365 Tote vc BoyleSports blue square

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> horse racing tips