Aintree Trends and Statistics

The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.

Stats are based on ten years historical data.

You can read more from Dave at this link  Horse Racing Blog

Saturday

1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better.
Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1
Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners).

Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny.





2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%).
Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race.





2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.
Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners).
Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties).
Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3
Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record.





3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Class: 9 of the last 10 winnershad raced in Graded company in their careers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice.
Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed.
Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss.
Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4
Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%).

Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not.





4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20.
Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4
Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger.





4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners.
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%).
Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74.
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8
Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners.

Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least.





5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season.
Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger.
Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19

Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Horse Racing Nuggets

My mate Dave Renham is a mine of information on uk horse racing.

I am firm believer that if you take the time to carefully assess the past you are likely to make better decissions about the future.

This applies very well to betting on horses as well as to other walks of life.

Dave recently started producing a little column called “Do You Know” for full members over at www.PunterProfits.com.

This is just a tiny extra on top of all the usual great research learning over there.

Below is a copy of a recent one.

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Did you know?

This is a new section that I started last week where I will share some facts and figs that hopefully you will find interesting and useful. Last week I mentioned that Dandy Nicholls had a great record in the Ayr Gold – the result of the 2010 race on Saturday saw Nicholls have the first and second at 14/1 and 8/1. Here are the facts and figs for this week:

  • Did you know that favourites in Novice chases win around 46% of the time? Despite the high strike rate however, they make a loss of around 4% to SP.
  • Did you know that Tony Mc Coy has ridden 23 winners from 104 for Paul Nicholls in the past 5 years? BUT despite a decent strike rate you would have lost £388.90 if you had backed all 104 runners at £10 per bet.
  • Do you know the chances of six National Hunt favourites winning all six races on a six race card? Well statistically it should occur once in every 774 meetings (this is assuming NH favourites win 33% of all races – which they tend to do).
  • Horses that won on the flat last time out lose around 17 pence in the £ if you back them to repeat their win. However, horses that won in National Hunt racing last time out lose under 14 pence in the £ if you back them to repeat their win.
  • Since 2005 Frankie Dettori has won just over 20% of the races he has ridden in. However, despite that he has had a losing run of 31.

Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Febuary 14th

No Account Bet

Promised a Blockbuster and its certainly that with 18
previews today. Whether its an Oscar nominated mail
or box office flop remains to be seen. 18 previews is a
pretty Grotesque thought and the big risk of spreading
myself too thinly has to be a concern. I have things to
say about all 18 races though so it will stand or fall on
todays results but I think my strongest bets are the 2
listed below and I hope I have that right today.

LINGFIELD 3.05 – Full Members Only Bet

WINCANTON 3.10 – CHARITY LANE 6/4

It’s possibly a day where the selections become victim
to the ammount of racing and the size of the message
and they could get marginalised as there is so much to
edit and decide upon but I do feel both horses will win.
Personally I think the obscene size of this mail has
made it imposible to find an account bet and I hope we
can make up for that with the selections.
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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

We had a quiet Friday with no business done.
The message hit a couple of winners and held its own which was as much
as I’d have predicted as I felt it was a rough day that didnt offer us much at all and because of that happy with results yesterday.

Eighteen Previews today spread around most meetings for Full Members and
all codes and the hardest task is extracting the best bits of business and getting them to the top of the message.

For the free blog today just the one race examined.

WINCANTON 3.10

BATHWICK TYRES YEOVIL HANDICAP HURDLE
(DIV I) (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-135)2m6f

13/8 Charity Lane, 4/1 Midnight Chase, 9/2 Khachaturian,
6/1 Mendo, 10/1 Captain Americo, 12/1 Portland Bill,
14/1 Snake Charmer, 20/1 Ned Ludd.

I will be surprised if CHARITY LANE is beaten in this race.
Its quite a good handicap hurdle. I have to be with the lightly raced novice CHARITY LANE in this.
This race has often gone to a Paul Nicholls Novice Hurdler.
He’s won this race 3 times before and two with a Novice Hurdler winners
which is also significant. Nicholls won this in 2002 with Iverain and that interests me as
Iverain won the same novice at Chepstow in December as CHARITY LANE last
ran in and won and he then went to a Grade 1 at Cheltenham.
This horse ran in the 2008 Aintree Bumper.
The Stewarts bought him for 200k a massive sum and he has won both hurdle races since.
He was odds on in both and they were easy races and he wasnt always impressive but its
bought him a reasonably good mark and I think he will improve past these.
One of my better bets.
If you want a saver then its Snake Charmer at 14/1

SELECTION -CHARITY LANE
SAVER -  SNAKE CHARMER

Blog comment:
Prices above were from earlier message for Full members.
Snake Charmer now best 9/1 Ladbrokes, Tote
Plenty of 7/4 around for Charity Lane

Visit Guys Site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Local pride is all to play for this weekend with three local derbies in the Premiership. Newcastle visit the Riverside to face Middlesbrough on Saturday, while on Super Sunday Blue faces Red in Manchester as City play United. On Sunday afternoon Chelsea welcome Arsenal in the London derby, with a chance for the Blues to possibly kill off the Gunners title ambitions. The Hennesy Gold Cup is the big race of the weekend at Newbury, where Paul Nicholls will be looking to replicate his success from last year with the phenomenal Denman.

Weekend Football

Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

City welcome United to the City of Manchester Stadium, with their two victories in last years Manchester derby’s fresh in their memories. City won this fixture 1-0 last season, although it will probably be the 2-1 win at Old Trafford that they will draw from in the build up to this weekend. United will be looking to avenge those defeats, the first time City had done the double over United in nearly 40 years. They have overcome their slow start and are now looking to close down Chelsea and Liverpool’s 8 point lead over them.

Manchester City are 3/1 with Pagebet bookmaker to claim a third successive win in the Manchester Derby, while Manchester United are 4/5 with Centrebet to claim top honours in the city.

If Carlos Tevez scores at anytime during Manchester City v Manchester United, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Man City v Man United finishes 0-0 BGbet will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.¹

Chelsea v Arsenal, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:30pm

A respondent Arsenal will travel to Stamford Bridge on Sunday following their midweek Champions League win. Niklas Bendtners late goal against Dynamo Kiev eased some of the pressure that had been building with recent poor results, and that had been heightened following William Gallas’ comments last week. Chelsea will still fancy their chances against the Gunners, and will look to exploit any weaknesses that have been exposed in recent events.

Chelsea are the 4/6 favourites with BGbet to pull further clear of the Gunners at the top, while Arsenal are 4/1 with VCbet to get their season back on track with a victory.

If Joe Cole scores at anytime during Chelsea v Arsenal, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

Liverpool v West Ham United, Monday, Setanta Sports 1, 8:00pm

Liverpool face West Ham in the Monday night game, hoping Arsenal would have helped them to stay at the top of the Premiership. However, if the Gunners do not beat Chelsea then Liverpool will need to win this game to reclaim their place at the top. West Ham will enter this game with some confidence following their win over Sunderland last week. That was the Hammers first win since September, although they face a difficult task at Anfield.

Liverpool are 1/3 favourites with bookmakers VCbet to continue their time at the top of the Premiership, with West Ham 9/1 at Pagebet to shock the league leaders at Anfield.

If Dirk Kuyt scores at anytime during Liverpool v West Ham United, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

Championship and SPL football, throughout the weekend, Sky Sports & Setanta Sports

There is a full set of Championship football this weekend, including the Midlands derby where Wolves entertain Birmingham. These two local rivals sit first and second in the Championship respectively, and Birmingham will be looking to cut Wolve’s six point lead over them at Molineux this weekend. The two Welsh sides in the Championship meet on Sunday when rivals Cardiff travel to Swansea, with both in the hunt for a playoff place. Two other sides just outside of the playoff places meet on Saturday when Bristol City travel to Deepdale to meet Preston, while Monday night’s game sees Reading attempt to strengthen their playoff position against struggling Coventry. In the SPL Rangers meet Hearts as they look to close the 4 point gap to rivals Celtic when they meet third place Hearts on Saturday.

If Sam Vokes scores at anytime during Wolves v Birmingham, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Nacho Novo scores at anytime during Hearts v Rangers, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Jon Parkin scores at anytime during Preston v Bristol City, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Febian Brandy scores at anytime during Swansea v Cardiff, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Stephen Hunt scores at anytime during Reading v Coventry, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer bet stakes on the match.¹

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGbet will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

Destruction Derby

If any player gets sent off in the 2 derby matches on Sunday, Man. United v Man. City OR Chelsea v Arsenal, Pagebet will refund all 1st goalscorer and correct score bets on the match the red card occurs in.2

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match VCbet will refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.3

Can you beat Victor?

You receive a mythical £1 on each correct score you choose. If your prediction is correct your mythical £1 will be settled at the VC Bet price on that correct score.

Every one who Beats Victor’s total points score from the four matches wins a £5 free bet and if you are the tipster with the largest overall return you win a £500 free bet!

Victor’s selections are…

Aston Villa v Fulham: 3-1
Middlesbrough v Newcastle United: 2-2
Manchester City v Manchester United: 2-3
Chelsea v Arsenal: 2-1

Entry is free, simply register and open an account to take on Victor today!4

Weekend Horse Racing

This weekends racing takes us to Newbury where the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at 2.40pm on Saturday is the headline race.

Denman romped home at 5/1 to take this race last year, and his winning trainer Paul Nicholls is back again with three runners this year. Big Buck’s looks to be Nicholl’s best chance at successive winners, as he is a 5/1 shot with Pagebet. Air Force One and Character Building are leading the chasing pack in the betting, at 6/1with Centrebet and 7/1 at BGbet respectively.

Paul Maloney won this race is 2006, and is looking for a repeat on High Chimes, a 16/1 chance with BGbet, while Tony McCoy saddles Albertas Run for Jonjo O’Neill, a 10/1 shot with Pagebet.

Jump for Joy

If your horse jumps the last fence in the lead and gets beaten Pagebet will refund your win only single on that horse.5

If your horse gets beat by a Short Head or Nose in the Hennesy Gold Cup Chase at 14.40pm at Newbury on Saturday, BGbet will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.6

FIRST OR LAST FREE FALL …

Applies to the Hennessy Gold Cup, 2.40pm Saturday at Newbury

If your selection FALLS , VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on Sunday’s racing!

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

Pagebet £25 Free Bet
VC Bet £100 in Free Bets
Centrebet £20 Free Bet
BGbet £100 Free Bet