NH 500 Portfolio Horse Racing Tip

This free racing tip today is from a new method now available to full members over at PunterProfits.com.

So far it has been done on the quiet only to full members there.

There is no info on it as yet on the outer PunterProfits site.

Christened the NH 500 Portfolio the rough idea is that several well researched methodologies are combined into a single portfolio to provide a diversified approach.

The data below is the researched data.

Everything below is based on Starting  Price and as such is conservative compared to real life returns making use of betting Exchanges such as Betfair of bookmaker early prices especially those offer Best Odds Guaranteed.

Year wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
2003 112 322 34.78 25.66 7.97
2004 82 257 31.91 6.53 2.54
2005 84 247 34.01 9.34 3.78
2006 88 286 30.77 134.62 47.07
2007 87 275 31.64 35.01 12.73
2008 78 275 28.36 20.95 7.62
2009 103 346 29.77 149.76 43.28
2010 103 333 30.93 58.95 17.70
2011 98 344 28.49 74.38 21.62
2012 75 243 30.86 103.14 42.44
Totals 910 2928 31.08 618.34 21.12

Looking to the future the key concept is one of educated risk.

History certainly looks very positive.

Only two past selections emailed out to PunterProfits.com full members so far.

One loser then a winner yesterday at 10/3 early odds.

 

There is one selection today from the above methodology

4.00 Fontwell – Venetian Lad – 9/1 BOG with William Hill , victor chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James

Such a tip is best viewed sensibly.

In no way is it a nailed on winner.

Based on long term stats data of 21% ROI and nothing else one might assess it to be a true 7/1 chance but with 9/1 available at the bookies.

So it will still lose 7 times out of 8 but that one winner in eight will give you a net profitover the long term.

Bet a few hundred such value horses and you should be well ahead.

Go contact PunterProfits if you want extra detail data on the NH 500 such as a detailed spreadsheet containing info on all 2928 past qualifiers.

Such data is useful for stage two of any good betting approach that being sensible and suitable bank roll management.

 

 

Soccer Corners Betting

Soccer Corners Betting

This tip come from Phil and ex bookmaker who now tips with great success at
the Football Bets site.

It is just one of three tips he has for today.
The rest you can get in the member area there if you care to
invest just £1 on a trial membership at football bets.

Also worth a read is an interview with Phil where he explains some of his philosophy.

See http://www.football-bets.co.uk/soccer-odds-compiler-interview.php
Plus a recent free newsletter there indicates a potential staking approach
to really grow your bank.

See http://www.football-bets.co.uk/newsletter/football-bets-newsletter-april-2012.php

Anyhow here is his free blog tip for today

===================================

Middlesbrough v Southampton (5:20pm)
Middlesbrough MOST Corners at Evens
Blue square 5/6 Bet365

1pt
(More firms may price this market up in time)

===================================

PS He sent that on Friday Blue square now cut a bit but
Paddy Power and William Hill also offer evens

Free Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket

Guy from Mathematician Betting is having a busy day today on his Full Service. He has three advised bets in total. Here we have just one of them.

It’s just a tiny snippet from a very comprehensive message his Full Members receive

Newmarket 5.05

COMPTON’S ELEVEN 6/1 Win Bet
VIOLENT VELOCITY 4/1 Saver

I thought hard about making COMPTONS ELEVEN an account bet with VIOLENT VELOCITY as a saver.
He’s such a typical account bet for me down in class and also conceeding weight to inferior horses.
On Paper he smells like a great bet but the danger is he could now be a sour 8 year old grey mule that has forgotten how to win.
There are other well treated runners as well and I just feel he is a
little short of a full bet especially with the rain about.
In terns of strength he is a very strong selection as I’m also saving on the second best handicapped horse in the race.
Both these horses are so well treated I will be shocked if one doesnt win.
They are both worth a decent bet but just fall short of a maximum.

COMPTONS ELEVEN 7/1 LadbrokesHills – S James -Skybet – Paddy Power

VIOLENT VELOCITY 11/2 Bet365
VIOLENT VELOCITY 5/1 LadbrokesHills

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NEWMARKET 5.05

AGORA APPRENTICE HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 7f

4/1 Another Try, 5/1 King’s Icon, 13/2 Convince, 13/2 Pretty Officer, 8/1 Tri Chara, 10/1 Bigfanofthat, 10/1 Cavalry Guard, 10/1 Violent Velocity, 12/1 Compton’s Eleven, 14/1 King Of The Moors, 16/1 Rough Rock, 25/1 Majestic Cheer, 33/1 Ramblin Bob.

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

This is a 7f Handicap For Apprentice riders. June and July have seen 64 handicaps like this.
There has been 578 similar races for all types of jockeys and not just Apprentices. I used both trends.

* KINGS ICON has 1 run this year
* In 64 Apprentice races horses doing that were 0-42
* He also has a 65 day absence
* He looks potentially unfit for a semi exposed horse
* I looked at 578 similar 7f handicaps
* No horse as exposed as him won with 1 run and a break
* He is well handicapped and from a shrewd stable
* I would question his fitness though and he isnt for me
* RAMBLIN BOB lost by too far just 3 days ago
* TRI CHARA is hard to fancy
* He is exposed and comes from a 6f race
* No winners did that without a recent run and he’s been off 92 days
* He is also USA Bred and has all his best form on sand
* He may also struggle on the ground
* ROUGH ROCK will struggle to get home on the ground
* He also has the worst draw for me
* PRETTY OFFICER has spent her last races at 10f or more
* Its asking her a lot to drop from 10f to 7f
* No Filly did that in any of the 64 Apprentice races
* They scored very poorly in 578 other races
* There is far too much risk in her as a Filly not won before
* The ground could also hurt to PRETTY OFFICER is out
* MAJESTIC CHEER has to go from a 6f Seller
* CAVALRY GUARD was beaten too far in a 0-55 last time
* I dont see him as good enough
* Not without any form on the ground and winless on grass

POSSIBLES

* KING OF THE MOOR has reasonable claims
* He has a 39 day absence though
* Thats not easy for an exposed 6 year old
* He also has no recent form at 7f in years
* All his runs in the last two years were at 8f or more
* All his wins in the last two years were at 8f and more
* KING OF THE MOOR does have questions to answer
* ANOTHER TRY is inexperienced with 7 runs
* In 64 Apprentice Handicaps only 2 winners had under 9 runs
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* Statistically I dont have a problem but there are issues
* His last win was when given a gift of a Draw
* I dont see his draw today as favourable at all
* He has to come from 6f to 7f and thats not straight forward
* He may also find the ground more testing than he faced before
* I respect him but he isnt for me
* BIGFANOFTHAT has a chance
* He still has to come up from 6f with just 1 run since April
* He certainly has a chance in this race
* CONVINCE is entitled to run well
* I dont have a major problem with him
* VIOLENT VELOCITY has a serious chance
* He is thrown in off his current mark
* The Absence doesnt worry me
* I have found several winners like him
* I rate him a good saver

COMPTON´S ELEVEN is very interesting. I remember making
him an account bet when he won the Grey Horse Handicap her
in 2007. Statistically he is fine. I think I have made a reasonable case against a lot of his rivals.
What interests me though is that he could have a Class advantage.
COMPTON´S ELEVEN is rated 69 and he has to win what is only a 0-64 handicap.
He has come down about 14lbs in the weights within the last year.
He has been running himself fitter and fitter all year as he comes down the
handicap and today is a Career low mark.

* His last run was 6th at Warwick beaten 7 lengths
* That was in a 0-83 Handicap much better than this race
* The Lowest rated horse he faced that day was 70
* The Highest rated horse he faces today is 64
* He was also badly drawn at Warwick in stall 11
* He was last into the turn and finished away from the track bias
* 6th place wasnt bad and the 4th and 5th came out and won since
* His previous race at Folkestone was in a better class 0-78 handicap
* His 4th that day doesnt suggest he couldnt win this 0-64
* He stays – He has won with ground on the soft side
* Most of his wins come on a straight track as well

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

****************************************************

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport
The National Hunt season starts in earnest this weekend as Cheltenham hosts the Open Meeting, with the highlight coming on Saturday afternoon in the form of the Gold Cup Chase. The two early Premiership leaders will be looking to gain an advantage in one of the most competitive Premiership races in years this weekend. Liverpool are in action first when they travel to Bolton on Saturday lunch time, while Chelsea must wait until later that day to face bottom side West Bromwich Albion. On Sunday Everton host Middlesbrough as seventh meets eighth, while Hull look to continue their bright start when they host Manchester City.

Weekend Horse Racing

Cheltenham hosts the first jumps festival of the new season this weekend, with the three day Open Meeting. The highlight is the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2:35pm on Saturday, where Silverburn is the 10/3 favourite at VCbet, with Imperial Commander, a 6/1 shot with Pagebet, and Barbers Shop at 8/1 with BGbet following closely behind in the betting.

Last years winning trainer Ferdy Murphy is looking to defend the crown he won with 13/2 chance L’Antartique, and his challenger this year is Three Mirrors. However another success would be even more impressive this time round as Three Mirrors is currently a 40/1 outsider with both Pagebet and BGbet.

Existing Pagebet customers! Have FIVE outright win bets of £25 or more on any FIVE different races at Cheltenham over the 3 days of the festival, and Pagebet will give you a free £25 bet. 1

If your horse falls in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2.35pm Cheltenham on Saturday, we will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.2

Free Fall…

All races at Cheltenham (Saturday & Sunday)

If your selection FALLS, VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on the following day’s racing!3

Weekend Football

Bolton v Liverpool, Saturday, Sky Sports 1, 12:45pm

Liverpool are the first of the leaders to play this weekend, and they will want to leave the Reebok with a three point lead over Chelsea after their game against Bolton. After their stutter against Tottenham the Reds looked to be back on form last week against West Brom as they ran out 3-0 winners. Robbie Keane scored his first Premier League goals for Liverpool at Anfield as his brace sealed the game before half time. Bolton have had a mini revival of late which has seen them climb from the relegation to mid table. They beat upstarts Hull 1-0 last time out, and that came on the back of a 2-0 win over Man City at the Reebok.

Bolton are 5/1 with BGbet to continue their good form, while Liverpool are 3/5 with Pagebet to build their lead at the top of the Premiership.

If Ryan Babel scores at anytime during Bolton v Liverpool, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea, Saturday, Setanta Sports 1, 5:30pm

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns on Saturday evening for a possible top v bottom clash. Going into the weekend they were top thanks to their goal difference, which is down to new coach Phil Scolari’s attacking mentality. They have scored 16 goals in their last 5 Premiership games, and the West Brom defence will have to hold strong to withstand the formidable Chelsea attack. The Baggies will certainly have to put on a better performance than they have done so far against other sides from the “Big Four”, as Liverpool beat them 3-0 last week, while Manchester United put four past them in October.

West Brom are a massive 7/1 outsider with Centrebet to cause a huge upset, while Chelsea are 2/7 with BGbet to move back to the top of the Premiership.

If Florent Malouda scores at anytime during West Brom v Chelsea, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Everton v Middlesbrough, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

Two sides who have had promising starts to the campaign meet on Sunday when Middlesbrough travel to Goodison to face Everton. Everton will be full of confidence as they have won their last three Premiership games, although in each of these games they have only scored in the last ten minutes. This knack of scoring late goals was demonstrated in its most startling effect at West Ham last week, when they scored three times in the last ten minutes to come form a goal behind to win 3-1. Boro have also left it late in scoring in their last two games, as Tuncay’s 88th minute winner at Villa Park last week followed Mido’s 83rd minute goal at West Ham the week before that gave the Teesider’s a 1-1 draw.
Everton are 4/5 with Pagebet to stretch their unbeaten run to five games, with Boro 7/2 at Centrebet to continue their recent good run of form.

If Marouane Fellaini scores at anytime during Everton v Middlesbrough, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

If Everton v Middlesbrough finishes 0-0 BGbet will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.4

Hull v Manchester City, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:00pm

Despite their excellent start Hull will be looking to win for the first time in four Premiership games when they welcome Manchester City to the KC Stadium on Sunday. Last week’s 1-0 defeat to Bolton showed how far the Tiger’s have come this season, as many people were shocked that the Premiership new boys were beat by an established Premiership side. Prior to that game they had been brought back down to earth with successive defeats against Man Utd. and Chelsea, although they did push the Champions close at Old Trafford. Manchester City will also be looking for their first league win in four, although their pre-season expectations would have been considerably higher than Hulls. However, the addition of Robinho and Wright-Phillips has not transformed the side in the way many believed, and they will want to leave Humberside on Sunday night with some points as they prepare for a spending spree in January.
Hull are 19/10 with VCbet to continue their excellent start to the season, while BGbet make Manchester City 13/10 at the KC Stadium.

If Shaun Wright Phillips scores at anytime during Hull v Manchester City, BGbet will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGbet will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match we’ll refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.5

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

Pagebet £25 Free Bet  VC Bet  £100 in Free Bets
Centrebet £20 Free Bet  BGbet £100 Free Bet