Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

=====================================

Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M P Tregoning 5 13 38.5 +£3.30 +25.4 8.20
H R A Cecil 7 34 20.6 +£12.00 +35.3 7.15

Newmarket trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J H M Gosden 80 416 19.2 +£115.79 +27.8 5.25
J R Best 10 56 17.9 +£56.75 +101.3 3.05, 3.05, 4.15
H Candy 14 85 16.5 +£33.25 +39.1 3.40
A P O’Brien 16 98 16.3 +£21.89 +22.3 3.05, 3.05, 3.05

Glorious Goodwood Trainer Statistics

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD STATS – 1999 TO 2008 Trainers (10 or more runners) – ordered by wins

This info was provided by Dave Renham of RacingTrends.co.uk which is a great site for those who like to be kept up to date with long term profitable horse racing stats and figures.


Trainers Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
M Johnston 32 219 14.6 +£34.35 +15.7
D Nicholls 23 216 10.6 -£17.25 -8.0
Sir M Stoute 17 114 14.9 -£5.29 -4.6
R Hannon 16 278 5.8 -£121.67 -43.8
S Bin Suroor 13 63 20.6 +£8.01 +12.7
J H M Gosden 12 82 14.6 -£4.99 -6.1
B W Hills 11 164 6.7 -£106.72 -65.1
G A Butler 9 76 11.8 -£6.50 -8.6
A P O’Brien 9 59 15.3 -£29.60 -50.2
L M Cumani 9 46 19.6 +£2.58 +5.6
M P Tregoning 8 73 11.0 -£32.95 -45.1
P F I Cole 8 68 11.8 -£20.50 -30.1
M R Channon 7 186 3.8 -£114.25 -61.4
J L Dunlop 7 108 6.5 -£75.12 -69.6
D R C Elsworth 7 76 9.2 -£23.50 -30.9
E A L Dunlop 7 71 9.9 -£40.68 -57.3
R Charlton 7 43 16.3 +£3.83 +8.9
P W Chapple-Hyam 7 27 25.9 +£28.83 +106.8
J Noseda 6 39 15.4 -£7.17 -18.4
B J Meehan 5 74 6.8 -£38.50 -52.0
C E Brittain 5 57 8.8 +£24.75 +43.4
J G Given 5 34 14.7 +£8.50 +25.0
Mrs A J Perrett 4 80 5.0 -£46.50 -58.1
R A Fahey 4 43 9.3 +£1.00 +2.3
Sir Mark Prescott 4 30 13.3 +£0.50 +1.7
W J Haggas 4 33 12.1 +£25.25 +76.5
M A Jarvis 3 67 4.5 -£53.00 -79.1
A M Balding 3 59 5.1 -£26.00 -44.1
G L Moore 3 57 5.3 +£22.00 +38.6
A Berry 3 39 7.7 +£44.00 +112.8
M L W Bell 3 38 7.9 -£23.12 -60.8
H R A Cecil 3 26 11.5 -£5.50 -21.2
C G Cox 3 24 12.5 +£22.00 +91.7
M H Tompkins 3 24 12.5 -£2.17 -9.0
J R Fanshawe 3 20 15.0 +£2.00 +10.0
Lady Herries 3 11 27.3 +£8.00 +72.7
A P Jarvis 2 55 3.6 -£27.00 -49.1
W R Muir 2 55 3.6 -£39.50 -71.8
J M Bradley 2 48 4.2 -£37.25 -77.6
T G Mills 2 30 6.7 -£19.37 -64.6
H Morrison 2 27 7.4 -£4.00 -14.8
S Kirk 2 24 8.3 +£9.00 +37.5
P J Makin 2 17 11.8 +£1.00 +5.9
B Smart 2 16 12.5 +£10.00 +62.5
D W P Arbuthnot 2 13 15.4 +£11.00 +84.6
R M Beckett 2 13 15.4 +£28.50 +219.2
H Candy 2 11 18.2 +£1.50 +13.6
N P Littmoden 1 34 2.9 -£19.00 -55.9
T D Easterby 1 32 3.1 +£2.00 +6.3
B R Millman 1 28 3.6 -£17.00 -60.7
S Dow 1 21 4.8 -£19.00 -90.5
K R Burke 1 20 5.0 +£14.00 +70.0
J J Quinn 1 19 5.3 -£9.00 -47.4
J A Osborne 1 18 5.6 -£13.00 -72.2
R F Johnson Houghton 1 17 5.9 -£8.50 -50.0
P D Evans 1 16 6.3 +£18.00 +112.5
P R Chamings 1 16 6.3 +£5.00 +31.3
T D Barron 1 15 6.7 -£10.50 -70.0
E J O’Neill 1 14 7.1 -£1.00 -7.1
J R Best 1 13 7.7 +£13.00 +100.0
W Jarvis 1 12 8.3 -£6.50 -54.2
J R Boyle 1 10 10.0 +£0.00 +0
J S Goldie 1 10 10.0 -£2.00 -20.0
K A Ryan 0 44 0 -£44.00 -100.0
J W Hills 0 38 0 -£38.00 -100.0
B Ellison 0 21 0 -£21.00 -100.0
J Akehurst 0 19 0 -£19.00 -100.0
M Blanshard 0 17 0 -£17.00 -100.0
W J Musson 0 16 0 -£16.00 -100.0
Jamie Poulton 0 15 0 -£15.00 -100.0
J Berry 0 13 0 -£13.00 -100.0
J S Moore 0 13 0 -£13.00 -100.0
K T Ivory 0 13 0 -£13.00 -100.0
D Shaw 0 12 0 -£12.00 -100.0
J J Bridger 0 12 0 -£12.00 -100.0
B A McMahon 0 11 0 -£11.00 -100.0
Miss Gay Kelleway 0 11 0 -£11.00 -100.0
M S Saunders 0 10 0 -£10.00 -100.0
W G M Turner 0 10 0 -£10.00 -100.0

Trainer Records at Newmarket

Dave Renham Provides an informative service over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

His clients tend to be canny punters who appreciate the importance of having good stats and information to hand when making betting decissions.

Below is just a tiny sample of some of the information they got from Dave today.

It is a quick and ready reconer to the top trainers at Newmarket.

Newmarket Trainer Stats

ALL RACES 2005-2009 (ordered by strike rate – 5 or more wins)

Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate (%)
Profit
ROI
(%)
J
Bolger
8
26
30.8
+£22.57
+86.8
G
Swinbank
8
35
22.9
+£19.45
+55.6
J
Gosden
75
358
21.0
+£145.46
+40.6
T
Tate
5
24
20.8
+£28.00
+116.7
H
Cecil
33
162
20.4
+£8.81
+5.4
S
Bin Suroor
45
224
20.1
-£17.78
-7.9
J
R Best
9
49
18.4
+£61.75
+126.0
J
Portman
5
29
17.2
+£50.50
+174.1
H
Candy
11
69
15.9
+£27.75
+40.2
A
O’Brien
14
88
15.9
-£3.83
-4.4
R
Charlton
19
120
15.8
-£9.57
-8.0
M
Tregoning
11
71
15.5
+£3.58
+5.1
B
Smart
6
40
15.0
+£14.00
+35.0
Sir
M Stoute
50
344
14.5
-£69.18
-20.1
R
Beckett
11
83
13.3
+£33.13
+39.9
J
Noseda
30
229
13.1
-£72.77
-31.8
63
513
12.3
-£43.17
-8.4
W
Haggas
23
194
11.9
-£31.11
-16.0
R
Hannon
63
537
11.7
-144.36
-26.9
J
Fanshawe
22
194
11.3
-£81.00
-41.8
C
Cox
8
75
10.7
+£2.33
+3.1
R
Cowell
5
47
10.6
-£2.00
-4.3
B
Millman
5
47
10.6
-£4.80
-10.2
H
Morrison
12
115
10.4
-£13.63
-11.9
G
Butler
8
77
10.4
-£10.42
-13.5
A
Balding
12
116
10.3
-£4.00
-3.5
T
Mills
6
60
10.0
-£18.17
-30.3
E
Vaughan
5
51
9.8
-£21.25
-41.7
G
Huffer
5
51
9.8
+£7.25
+14.2
L
Cumani
15
154
9.7
-£53.72
-34.9
C
Wall
11
113
9.7
-£34.87
-30.9
6
62
9.7
+£34.50
+55.7
M
Johnston
24
251
9.6
-£57.75
-23.0
D
Elsworth
29
306
9.5
-£101.32
-33.1
M
Wigham
5
53
9.4
-£2.25
-4.3
W
Swinburn
8
87
9.2
-£18.44
-21.2
P
Chapple-Hyam
20
219
9.1
-£83.35
-38.1
M
Channon
33
372
8.9
-£67.63
-18.2
B
Meehan
30
355
8.5
-£83.21
-23.4
Miss
Gay Kelleway
8
95
8.4
-£1.50
-1.6
M
Jarvis
21
252
8.3
-114.29
-45.4
E
Dunlop
17
214
7.9
-£83.88
-39.2
N
Callaghan
13
167
7.8
-£66.75
-40.0
J
Toller
7
90
7.8
+£21.00
+23.3
T
Barron
5
67
7.5
-£29.67
-44.3
M
Bell
14
188
7.5
-£68.30
-36.3
Mrs
A Perrett
11
155
7.1
-£50.75
-32.7
W
Musson
7
99
7.1
-£28.00
-28.3
D
Nicholls
6
85
7.1
-£40.63
-47.8
J
Dunlop
24
349
6.9
-£123.25
-35.3
M
Quinn
5
75
6.7
-£18.50
-24.7
P
Cole
9
147
6.1
-£67.75
-46.1
W
Jarvis
6
104
5.8
-£71.47
-68.7
K
Ryan
8
139
5.8
-£50.00
-36.0
J
Pearce
5
93
5.4
-£48.00
-51.6
M
Tompkins
10
222
4.5
-£112.00
-50.5
C
Brittain
8
198
4.0
-£68.50
-34.6

Epsom Derby Racing Tips

INVESTEC DERBY (GROUP 1) (3yo) 1m4f10y    EPSOM 5.45

11/4 Sea The Stars, 7/2 Fame And Glory, 4/1 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Gan Amhras, 8/1 Black Bear Island, 14/1 Masterofthehorse, 20/1 Age Of Aquarius, 20/1 Crowded House, 25/1 Kite Wood, 33/1 Golden Sword, 50/1 Montaff, 66/1 Debussy.

The Epsom Derby comes too soon in the year and doesnt
really offer great trends. Normally I would be against all
the horses from the 2000 Guineas but it is not a year to
do that with confidence as they are mob handed in today’s
race. I dont have a strong opinion. I have just listened to a lot of different opinions and read a lot about the race.

When you have 6 Aidan O’Brien runners and the decisionby Johnny Murtagh a surprise to many you realise that
you cant know enough about the Irish horses to form a
confident view. Jamie Spencer was talking recently about
why he feels SEA THE STARS wont stay and why he sees
him as having too much speed and I consider that very
plausable and he isnt for me. FAME AND GLORY isnt
for me as he has been rejected leading to suspicions that
a horse that won over 10f as a juvenile may be too slow
to win the race. CROWDED HOUSE and KITE WOOD dont appeal well beaten in the Dante. There are too many doubts for me about RIP VAN WINKLE. The track may hurt him. He isnt sure to stay. I like GAN AMHRAS and BLACK BEAR ISLAND or at least feel they offer quite a good return for the risk. I think the best risk here is to try some forecasts. It will be pot luck. I am taking the view that SEA THE STARS will lose for a lack of stamina but will still go very close. I think he could easily finish second. I intend to have some Novely forecasts in this race all built around the prediction SEA THE STARS is  going to go very close but lose out to stamina.

Two Suggested Forecasts

* Gan Amhras to beat Sea The Stars

* Black Bear Island to beat Sea The Stars

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Analysis

Saturday Racing Analysis from Dave Renham of RacingTrends

To Visit Dave’s site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Statistics

Two big races today where I have taken a 20 year trends approach in an attempt to create some shortlists.

3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £24.00 (ROI +36.4%).

Last time out winners: 17 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Price: 16 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 3/1 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £37.00 (ROI +41.6%).

Seasonal debut: 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut.

Draw: In big fields (18+ runners) all winners have been drawn middle to high. The lowest winning stall position in such races has been 12.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times since 1998. Sir Michael Stoute has been successful 3 times in 1997, 2000 and 2001.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting market have provided 2 winners from 215 runners for a loss of £172.00 (ROI -80%).

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 148 runners.

Career starts: Horses that raced 8 times or more in their career have provided 0 winners from 44.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 20 for a loss of £11.67 (ROI -58.4%).

Course winners: Course winners have won 7 races from 97 (SR 7.2%); non course winners have won 13 races from 245 (SR 5.3%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race although favourites have a poor record. Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners not surprisingly have a good record, while horses making their seasonal debut are around 5 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). Big priced outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have not scored in the last 20 years. Finally, runners from the stable of Aidan O’Brien clearly demand the upmost respect.

Conclusion – no horse perfectly matching the trends so we have to find horses that match the trends the best. Both Aidan O’Brien’s horses did not win LTO (which is a negative) and of the pair Mastercraftsman looks the right portion of the betting. Arguably the best fit is Evasive – currently 10/1 4th favourite. So from a trends perspective Evasive and Mastercraftsman look the rip. Rip Van Winkle if deposed as favourite (which is possible) then that would make up the trends trio.

3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 15 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 9 winners. That equates to 45% of the races from which they have provided just 20% of the total runners.

Market position LTO: 12 of the last 20 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their previous start have provided just 1 winner from 47 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -63.8%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 101 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -58.4%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 3 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -65.8%). However, they have provided 2 of the last 4 winners.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 8 wins from 23 for a profit of 34 pence!

Age: 3yos have won 5 races from 60 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 4yos have won 7 races from 76 qualifiers (SR 9.2%); 5yos have won 5 races from 44 qualifiers (SR 11.4%); 6yos have won 2 races from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 7yos+ have won 1 race from 42 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have won 16 races from 199 runners (SR 8%); female runners have won 4 races from 61 (SR 6.6%).

Trends analysis: Horses priced in single figures is a potential starting point, while, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO and those that were priced 16/1 or bigger on their most recent start. Combining this one positive and two negative stats your shortlist would have found the winner in 70% of the races from just 27% of the total runners. Another negative worth using when eliminating runners is horses aged 7 or more.

Conclusion – Chief Editor, Borderlescott and Amour Propre are the obvious three for the trends pick.

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk