Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

CHELTENHAM 2.35

9/4 Carruthers, 5/2 Madison Du Berlais, 3/1 Inchidaly Rock, 12/1 Joe Lively, 12/1 Taranis, 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Knowhere.

The Argento chase is a Grade 2 chase over 25f. The history
of this race demands a horse that has ran in a Grade 1 race
or a Grade 2 at the very least. All past winners did that and 9 out of 10 had Grade 1 before.
They also show you want a penalised horse as well which means in this race carrying more
than 11st. Therefore I am ignoring TARANIS with a massive absence.
OLLIE MAGERN is out unpenalised and
older than any past winner. INCHIDALY ROCK does not
appeal as he has no Graded form and none of the winners
came from a Novice Chase like him. Last year JOE LIVELY
won this but he was in much better form then and I couldnt
trust him  aged 11 with an inferior preperation. KNOWHERE
is too old. I dont fancy any of the above. This is between
MADISON DU BERLAIS – CARRUTHERS. What bothers
me about CARRUTHERS is past winners came from Listed
or a graded Chases and he comes from a Graduation Chase
and has fewer chase starts than every other past winner.
MADISON DU BERLAIS  has a solid profile and comes
from the best trial race the King George at Kempton. Its
pretty cleat he is best on a Flatter track but he has placed here at the Cheltenham Festival
and does have some form here. I am going with CARRUTHERS as he loves smaller
fields and has a great record in them.

Selection – CARRUTHERS

Was best priced 9/4 earlier today when I sent this out to full members.

Has shortened up a  touch since then.
19/10 Canbet   ( a bookmaker who run an interesting bonus of giving you
a percentage of any losses abck at the end of each month )

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Ascot Horse Racing Tip

ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION – NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Provided by Guy Ward

To visit His site click here == > Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Tips

Saturday racing message from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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A longer than usual Saturday blog post today.

I do have an Account Bet today in the 5.15 however
I have held that back as full member only.

What you have here are a lot of stats and thoughts on many other races.
This is typical of the extra supplementary info clients get daily from me.
Many clients ignore it and wait for Account Bets.
Others use it as extra info in their own personal betting decission making process.

Selections noted treat as “If you forced a fiver into my hand and gave me a free bet”

It is only the full Account Bets however I get heavily stuck into myself.

T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

Heavy Rain today will probably change the ground
at several tracks and that looks the most important
issue today. I have a few National Hunt things to say
but there isnt much over the Jumps and after that it
is a look at a few races on the Flat.

A I N T R E E

The 1.05 is a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2 Miles. There
has been 47 of these races at this time of year. What you
have to avoid in these races is exposed horses. Interesting
that 46 of the 47 winners were lightly raced wikth under 21 career starts.
I would rule out European Dream – Front Rank and Premier Dane.
ST BOREAS HAWK is impossible to get
a grip on absent 2 seasons and more so I’m neutral about him.
No 4yo had the weight INDIAN GROOM has and managed
to win. THUMBS UP is a 4yo from a Novice Hurdle. Two
winners did that and they had 5-6 runs and he’s just 4 runs.
Almost forgivable but a big weight wont help. None of the 47 went to
seasonal debutants from Novice handicaps so I oppose SUNSETTEN
who may need the race according to his trainer.
MAGELLAN STRAITS is also opposed. I didnt
like the profile of HARRY TRICKER. I doubt STELLINO
or AMAZING KING is about to win a Class 2 race. Given
the choice I See four potential winners.  THUMBS UP has
chances. SIR BOREAS HAWK can win if fit. ZANIR and
NAMPOUR are also potential winners. Final choice would
be THUMBS UP each way at 5/1.

The 2.50pm is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 3 Miles.
You will be in the dark with several seasonal debutants
in the race. The best profile for me could be the recent
winner DUNBRODY HOUSE. I looked at all similar 3m
Novice Handicaps. Horses that won a Novice handicap
Hurdle in the last month had a 9-19 record and take the
ones that had 11st 2lbs or less and that improves to a
7-10 record. Those aged 5 like him were 1-1. Those
who came from 2m 4f as he does were 3-5. This is a
step up in class though and thats my main worry. It
may be best to go with a Place Only bet.

C H E P S T O W

The 1.20pm  is a weak renewal of the Persian War Hurdle.
There is no ideal type which would be a horse with multiple
runs this year. We havent got that. This is a Graded Hurdle
and I would have to oppose AITEEN THIRTYTHREE as
a horse from a Bumper with just 1 career run. No similar
race went to a horse like that. I would prefer a horse from
a Grade 1 hurdle like REVE DE SIVOLA much as it was only
a 4yo Grade 1 Hurdle. REVE DE SIVOLA is my choice.

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NEWBURY 1.30

Hildon EBF Maiden Stakes (Div 1) (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m

7/2 Sir Pitt, 9/2 Latansaa, Total Command, 13/2 Aultcharn,
13/2 Multames, 7/1 State Fair, 11/1 Sea Of Heartbreak,
11/1 Tappanappa, 20/1 Boston Blue, 20/1 Sweet Secret,
25/1 Green Moon, 25/1 Mount Athos, 40/1 Baoli, 40/1
Goldtrek,  40/1 Oak Leaves, 66/1 Big Talk, Green Army,
100/1 First Post.

Starts off with a Big field Maiden for 2 year olds over a
Mile.  I want to oppose some of the fancied runners in a
race I can only guess in. STATE FAIR has had  4 runs
already and hasnt won. This is a Grade 1 track and if you
have not won by your fourth race you must have some
limitations. Very few Grade 1 track maidens go to a horse
so experienced. In fact those doing just this and stepping
up in trip were just 1-36 and none that exposed won this
race. I think his draw in stall 3 is a problem too as the last
19 races here with 9 + runners show only one horse drawn
1-2-3 winning. I would be inclined to go for a lighter raced
fancied runner as an alternative. Male horses with 1 run that
come from maidens over 7f when beaten more than 10 lengths
in that race in the last month have a 2-175 record.
Thats not good and  both TOTAL COMMAND  and
AULTCHARN have that to overcome so I dont see
them as good enough options. Marcus Treggoning hasnt
had an unraced 2yo win at a Grade 1 track at this time
of year so LATANSAA has issues as well. If I had to be
with any of these it would be SIR PITT. I think its a race
for a split stake bet to maximise the chances of a return.
SIR PITT is a win bet to half your stake and the other
half on STATE FAIR to place in the hope his experience
is enough to stop 3 horses beating him. I’m guessing here.

SELECTION

SIR PITT – Win Bet
STATE FAIR – Place Bet

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DONCASTER 1.50

Lincoln Restaurant Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4)
(3yo+ 0-80) 1m2f60y

9/4 Starla Dancer, 5/1 Veiled Applause, 6/1 Baltimore Jack,
13/2 Nevada Desert, 9/1 Admiral Dundas, 12/1 Maybeme,
12/1 Northern Jem, 14/1 Middlemarch, 16/1 Agapanthus,
16/1 Punch Drunk, 16/1 Taaresh, 25/1 Desert Vision.

This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses. There’s
been 177 similar races this time of year. If you look
at 3 year old fillies that come from 3yo handicaps
they dont have a great record. Those that ran in the
last 7 weeks had a 1-52 record in the 77 races. This
is not a strong profile and STARLA DANCER and
PUNCH DRUNK have that against them. I would
not make STARLA DANCER a negative though. It
would have been more promising if horses like her
had a better record but that sole winner in the 1-52
record did win last time and recently as she has so
she’s very similar to that winner. DESERT VISION
looks outclassd. NEVADA DESERT isnt for me. He
won a Class 6 handicap on the sand last week but this
is a much better race and horses his age score poorly
and none won coming up from such low grade races
and I wouldnt see him as a great bet.  TAARESH has
been off far too long. MIDDLEMARCH looks too
old with his absence. AGAPANTHUS is trained by
Barney Curley and you never know where you are
with him. Statistically as a 4 year old that was well
beaten last time and with just 4 runs this season he
has a weak profile and I am taking him on. Fillies
aged 3 that have not won before like MAYBEME
had a 2-73 record and those beaten 2 + lengths last
time were 0-64 so I would avoid her as well. I dont
want NORTHERN JEM. I have found horses like
him well beaten last time out and he was hampered
badly last time but he has only had 1 run since July
and I think he is underraced and may not be at his
peak. I would shortlist these

SHORTLIST

ADMIRAL DUNDAS has a strong profile and is a
potential winner if the rains stay away. I feel the
same about VEILED APPLAUSE another who is
better on faster ground. Bearing in mind the rain
thats falling I wouldnt want to be with either of
them. BALTIMORE JACK is another who has a
decent profile but concerns on the ground. With
the ground issue STARLA DANCER may well be
sticking with.

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NEWBURY 2.05

Totesport 0800 221 221 Stakes
(Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes)
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

5/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 11/2 Pastoral Player, 6/1 Audacity Of Hope,
6/1 Classic Colori, Burnett, 9/1 Cadley Road, 11/1 Critical Moment,
12/1 Dubawi Phantom, 12/1 Red Badge, 14/1 Carnaby Street,
16/1 Pleasant Day, 25/1 Exceedingly Bold, 33/1 Art Excellence, 40/1 Navajo Chief.

If you look at the 20 years of results in the Horris Hill
Stakes you see that horses from 6f races have struggled.
Overall in 20 years they are 3-48 but it masks the fact
that only 1 has won since 1992. Horses from a 6f race
have never won this race with under 3 career starts as
all 12 lost and None have won from a 6f maiden. I would
see horses like this as questionable at beat and all wrong at worst.
CLASSIC COLORI is from a 6f maiden with just 1
run and no past winner did that.  PASTORAL PLAYER
has the same problem. None of the last 20 winners were
like IVER BRIDGE LAD coming up from a 5f race so I
oppose him. CARNABY STREET is rejected as well as
he comes from a 6f Maiden. No past winners came from
an 8f maiden like ART EXCELLENCE and BURNETT.
I think the best profiles come from those at bigger odds
like CRITICAL MOMENT – AUDACITY OF HOPE or
CADLEY ROAD. The issue with these three runners is
Soft ground as they all would have doubts about them
on softer ground. I feel the same way about another in
PLEASANT DAY. He may want in faster. In the end
I decided to risk RED BADGE. He has improvement to
find but he is experienced and will handle the ground.
I will go with RED BADGE at 14/1.

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DONCASTER 2.20

Coral.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  5f

11/2 Rulesn´regulations, 7/1 Cheveton, 10/1 Cape Vale,
10/1 The Nifty Fox, 11/1 Judge ´n Jury, 12/1 Fathom Five,
12/1 Invincible Lad, Quest For Success, 16/1 Equuleus Pictor,
16/1 Wi Dud, 20/1 Hamish Mcgonagall, 20/1 Northern Dare,
20/1 Parisian Pyramid, 20/1 Waffle, 25/1 Canadian Danehill,
25/1 Captain Gerrard, 25/1 Fullandby, 25/1 River Falcon,
33/1 Excusez Moi, 33/1 Matsunosuke.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* We have 47 similar races at this time of year
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time need opposing
* Of those that ran within 2 weeks had a 0-55 record
* Ignore all horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose all exposed horses absent over a month
* Ignore all horses with under 5 runs or under 2 runs this year
* Avoid horses aged 9 or more
* Horses from 6f handicaps were fine
* They must be Class 2 handicaps (Others 1-79)
* Horses from 6f are intersting and won 16 races
* However those who were 1st or 2nd last time struggled
* They had a 0-38 record
* I’d oppose horses 1-2 over 6f last time
* I would oppose horses aged 7 or more from 6f
* Exposed horses from 5f races need 7 + runs this year

SHORTLIST

THE NIFTY FOX isnt too bad statistically but a career
high mark wont be easy to overcome. The horse behind
him last week EQUULEUS PICTOR is fine statistically.
WI DUD has a strong profile. HAMISH MCGONAGALL
looks excellent statistically.  CAPE VALE is also strong.
INVINCIBLE LAD was 3rd over 6f just 3 days ago and
may have a fitness edge. In 47 races there was just one
horse that ran within 4 days dropping back from a 6f race
and that horse came second at 10/1 coming from a class 4
handicap. I will go with him. INVINCIBLE LAD  is the
suggestion.

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NEWBURY 2.35

Totesport.com St Simon Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m4f5y

100/30 Harbinger, 5/1 All The Aces, 5/1 High Heeled,
5/1 Tastahil, 15/2 Chock A Block, 10/1 Enroller,
16/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Illustrious Blue, Halicarnassus,
25/1 Heliodor, 25/1 Merchant Of Dubai.

The St Simon Stakes (2.35) is always a complicated race
over 12f. I am just going to follow the trends in the race
and see what I am left with. Horses dropping in distance
have struggled with a 2-50 record and no 4 year old did
that so MERCHANT OF DUBAI and ALL THE ACES
have that to overcome. TASTAHIL drops from 2 miles
and just one past winner  did that and he didnt have the
long absence  TASTAHIL has. HELIODOR doesnt look
good enough up in trip. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE looks too
exposed and short of runs this year. HALLICARNASSUS
isnt my first choice. I would shortlist these 5 runners.

ENROLLER – DRILL SERGEANT -HARBINGER
HIGH HEELED – CHOCK A BLOCK

I Like ENROLLER’s profile a lot. Horses aged 4 that had
13 + career runs from 12 races had a 4-10 record  in this
race. The downside being they ran better than he did when
running with that profile last time. DRILL SERGEANT
has a similar profile and whilst technically a bit exposed
he comes from the Godolphin Stakes which both the 2008
and 2007 winners did and its a key trial. CHOCK A BLOCK
won that race and has to be shortlisted as does HARBINGER
but you can argue that CHOCK A BLOCK and HARBINGER
would be the least experienced 3yo Male to win. All the past winning
3 year olds had at least 5 career starts and this pair have just 4 runs.
HIGH HEELED is a 3yo filly and they’ve a brilliant record in this race.
The only problem statistically is all past winning 3yo fillies were both lighter
raced than her and had lighter seasons as well.In the end there was just one
niggling thing wrong with every runner. I decided to go with a 3yo filly with
recent form and ability to handle the going so I suggest HIGH HEELED
each way around 6/1.

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DONCASTER 2.55

Racingpost Stakes Registered As The Doncaster Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

9/4 Citrus Star, 11/4 Corporal Maddox, 100/30 Layla´s Hero, 10/1 Tropical Treat,
11/1 Tomatin, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Walkingonthemoon,
20/1 Colonel Mak, 25/1 Singeur, 50/1 Al Naouwee.

The Doncaster Shield is a trappy Listed Class race for
2 year olds. I would ignore all horses that had not won
a race before. I would oppose all horses from 5f races.
No horse won with 13 or more career runs. Oppose all
horses well beaten last time. Oppose all horses with 7
or more runs if absent over a Month. This leads to a
shortlist of two horses.  I dont feel I have broken into
the race well enough. For the record the two shortlisted
are LAYLA’S  HERO – CORPORAL MADDOX. I feel
LAYLA’S HERO has stronger form and think he wins.

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NEWBURY 4.55

Watch The Jump Season On Racing UK Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)1m2f6y

4/1 Rainbow Peak, 5/1 Namibian Orator, 11/2 Cill Rialaig,
8/1 Bab Al Salam, The Fifth Member, 12/1 The Which Doctor,
12/1 Wintercast, 14/1 William Blake, 16/1 Dr Livingstone,
16/1 King Charles, 16/1 Sohcahtoa, 16/1 Spell Caster,
20/1 The Cayterers, 25/1 Bound By Honour,
28/1 Salden Licht, 33/1 Kaolak.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-94 rated horses
* There has been 15 renewals of this race
* There has been 53 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* There has been 89 Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps

Horses from 8f  races havent done that well. In the 89
similar races no horse came from 8f or less with under
5 career starts and NAMIBIAN ORATOR has only 3
career runs and looks opposable. SALDEN LIGHT is
from 8f and doesnt appeal with just 2 runs this year.
SOHCAHTOA is a 3yo coming from an  8f handicap.
When these horses had 9 or more runs as he does they
were just 1-56. BAB AL SALAM was beaten too far in
3yo handicap last time. DR LIVINGSTONE comes out
wrong absent 50 days and with just 3 runs this year. I
feel the same about SPELL CASTER a filly absent 105
days. Exposed horses aged 7 like THE CAYTERERS
scored badly and need a very recent run. In last years
race WILLIAM BLAKE was beaten a long way and I
dont want him this year as no exposed 4 year old won
a similar race down in distance. Horses aged 3 that lost
by 10 + lengths last time were poor. When having 13
or more runs they were 0-39 so KAOLAK has to go.
I couldnt find a winner like THE WHICH DOCTOR
beaten so far last time. BOUND BY HONOUR fails
similar angles. The only lightly raced 4 year olds to
win were horses that won last time out and those that
didnt were 0-31 and WINTERCAST fails that and it
may not have been a good enough run last time.

SHORTLIST

KING CHARLES comes out well. Exposed 5 year olds
down in trip with a recent run had a 2-5 record and he
looks strong in several areas. If you look at exposed
5 year olds that have under 7 runs this season coming
from 10f races as THE FIFTH MEMBER does you get
a 6-19 record. Those that were 1-2-3-4-5 last time out
improved that to a 6-14 record so he has to have a big
chance. My reservation with THE FIFTH MEMBER is
a career high mark and no wins outside Class 4 or lower.
CILL RIALAIG has an excellent profile as a lightly
raced 4 year old filly winning last time out. Those like
her with under 9 runs were 2-2 in the 89 races. Back in
2005 the winner of this race (Khyber Kim) had only 2
runs and came here from a Conditions race and thats a
very similar profile to RAINBOW PEAK so he has to
be shortlistable as well. It may be significant that the
last 7 winners were aged 3-4 and unexposed which is a
pointer to RAINBOW PEAK and CILL RIALAIG off
my shortlist. In the end given the ground I decided to
chance KING CHARLES each way around 20/1.

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It will be one of those card out today but £0 for your first month sort of things. Free trials are not normally offered by this service so this is a good and rare opportunity for you to test him out no money down.

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Horse Racing Tip For York

York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

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YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

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Betting Advice For Salisbury

I have a few what I deem stronger bets today but out of respect for clients who pay for my betting advice I must unfortunately refrain from putting them up here.

Still I have an interesting angle for at a race at Salisbury later with a couple of decent priced contenders.

SALISBURY 6.20

BATHWICK TYRES NOVICE AUCTION STAKES
(CLASS 5)(2yo) 6f

6/4 Raine’s Cross, 13/8 Dick Turpin, 8/1 Drift And Dream
12/1 Emma Dora, 12/1 Perfect Ch’I, 25/1 Pherousa
25/1 San Cassiano, 33/1 Fantastic Pick, 33/1 Weliketobouggie 66/1 Bush Master, 66/1 Chocolate Cookie.

This race is a 6f Novice Auction Contest. Salisbury has
12 renewals of this race. This is a race where Fillies have
dominated. They lead 9-3 in the 12 races and there has
been fewer Fillies run as well. They should really be 10-2
ahead as one year they had no chance of winning. I feel
a male horse can win but if they do you know they will
turn out to be pretty smart. Considering unraced horses
are 0-17 in this race lets take out the unraced males first
so SAN CASSIANO and WELIKETOBOUGGIE are out. I cant see a case for BUSH MASTER. No past winner dropped in trip and the male FANTASTIC PICK does not appeal. CHOCOLATE COOKIE doesnt appeal as a debutant and no filly was beaten more than 10 lengths last time so PHEROUSA has to go.

The issue is whether the 3 remaining fillies EMMA DORA – PERFECT CH’I
or DRIFT AND DREAM can beat the a male who has Group form in RAINE´S CROSS and a male that has won his only race in DICK TURPIN. Its much better to come from an Auction maiden so I will take out EMMA DORA. I respect the males but feel the Fillies are advantaged in a race like this. I plan to bet one and save on the other

SELECTION – DRIFT AND DREAM 10/1 Bet365 s james Betfred
SAVER – PERFECT CH’I 16/1 blue sq VC

best wishes
Guy

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Racing Tip For Haydock

Racing Tip For Haydock From www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Haydock 2.55

DANNY ZUCO

Each Way 9/2 CanBet   Ladbrokes   VC

I see todays selection as just a routine one and it
was closer to being a no bet day than an account
bet day. We knew this particular Saturday was one
where we had no Flat racing on Grass and that our
options would be limited and its possibly the worst
Saturday card of the season.

The only flat card today is the All Weather card
at Kempton and I would be hard pressed to name
a track that I dislike more. I detest the place with
a passion. I dont like my angles there. I dont like
the way races are run there and the place leaves
me cold and lacking confidence there. That said I
have a few races I’m previewing and have done as
much as I can there as its the only flat card.

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T O D A Y ‘ S   R A C I N G

N A T I O N A L    H U N T

Given that Kempton is the only Flat card today to be
confident of a great message I needed some excellent
jump cards and I dont feel I have that today and I am
dissapointed with the National Hunt cards especially
as none of these have any history to fall back on and
it wont be easy to nail anything today.CARLISLE has
a tedious all chase card as they always do these days.
Big fields make the meeting even harder. In the end
I felt only 1 race was worth a quick preview.

HAYDOCK throws us a nasty card. Not many races I
wanted to preview there but I will do the 2.55pm race.

HAYDOCK 2.55

BLUE SQUARE “FIXED BRUSH” NOVICES’ HURDLE FINAL
BONUS RACE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) 2m4f

3/1 Burton Port, 6/1 Danny Zuko, 6/1 Fredo, 6/1 Rouge Et Blanc, 8/1 Sparrow Hills, 10/1 Fiendish Flame, 10/1 Magellan Straits, 12/1 Border Reiver, 12/1 Quinz, 12/1 Riddleofthesands, 16/1 Broken Beau, 20/1 Karmadice

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 31 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 31 races in Class 2-3-4 over 19f – 22f
* I want to oppose horses that are up in distance
* Horses from 16f and 17f had a 4-116 record in 31 races
* Those aged 5 that came from 17f or less were 0-36
* FIENDISH FLAME fails this and has other problems
* No horse from a 16f race had more than 11st 4lbs
* MAGELLAN STRAITS also comes from a 16f race
* We know horses aged 5 doing that are 0-36
* FREDO is also a 5yo from 2 miles (0-36)
* KARMADICE is out coming from a 16f race
* RIDDLEOFTHESANDS comes from 16f
* He is also a 5yo and all 36 doing it lost
* No horse that came from 16f or 17f had under 5 runs
* All 27 that tried failed
* ROUGE ET BLANC fails that and is only a 4yo
* QUINZ is a bit too inexperienced for me
* None of the 31 winners came from a maiden hurdle
* SPARROW Hills fails that
* BROKEN BEAU also fails that
* BORDER REIVER is a 5yo unplaced last time
* No 5yo finished unplaced in a novice hurdle and won
* There look to be only 2 strong runners in this race
* BURTON POINT – DANNY ZUKO
* BURTON POINT was 4th in a Graded Hurdle last time
* Horses coming from Graded races were 2-5
* Both came from the same race as he did
* DANNY ZUCO has won a novice hurdle easily last time
* He gets 25lbs from BURTON POINT and thats a lot
* I think I would prefer DANNY ZUCO because of that

SELECTION – DANNY ZUCO 9/2 Each Way

besy Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Saturday Racing Tip

NEWBURY 2.50

EBF/THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATION
MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE FINAL (A HANDICAP)
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  2m6f110y

7/2 Jaunty Flight, 5/1 Lamanver Homerun, 13/2 Rate Of Knots, 15/2 Shatabdi, 10/1 Katess, 12/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Pyleigh Lady, 33/1 Ceoperk, 50/1 Ruby Dante.

This is a Mares Chase around 22f. Its a Novice handicap and  messy statistically as it was formerly run at Uttoxeter and it hasn’t always been open to Novices so its very unsafe. It does have a long history though and what they show is this. They imply that a horse with a high weight may struggle as horses with 11st 3lbs or more had a poor 1-36 record in the last 14 renewals. That is a worry for LAMANVER HOMERUN

Horses aged under 7 in this race had a 0-29 record and Thats a statistic that could fall and it may well be the one trend that will determine If I get this race right.

We have AIMIGAYLE – KATESS  -  RATE OF KNOTS aged
six in this race. I was tempted by AIMIGAYLE but I decided to oppose these three horses aged 6. What swings it for me is that none of them are foaled before March 21st in the year they were officially born which technically means they are all not yet 6 year olds until a month or so so whilst I may have risked a horse aged 6 that was almost 7 these three are really just 5 year olds about to become 6 despite them being offically six year olds. RATE OF KNOTS is the least experienced and almost all past winners had more experience than she does.

I’d suggest RUBY DANTE and CEOPERK are too old as no past
winners were aged 9 or more. I’d be more interested in SHATABDI had she had a more recent run and ran better in that race.

Overall perhaps the best profile belonged to JAUNTY FLIGHT
and she won the mares hurdle final last year at this meeting. She has a superb profile and on soft ground she would be a confident bet. However this is not soft. Its good bordering on fast. They say JAUNTY FLIGHT wants soft ground and his form suggests that. He is from a sire (Busy Flight) that has 23 national hunt winners. All 23 came on ground that was soft. Those that ran on good or faster ground were 0-90 so you have to worry that JAUNTY FLIGHT may find the ground too fast. I would still save on him as his profile is brilliant. PYLEIGH LADY has a serious chance as well and I like her profile and 25/1 is far too
big a price. Because of the ground PYLEIGH LADY is my bet

SELECTION – PYLEIGH LADY E/W  14/1 at many places including Betfred , Ladbrokes, Bet365

Advice provided by The Mathematician

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Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Febuary 14th

No Account Bet

Promised a Blockbuster and its certainly that with 18
previews today. Whether its an Oscar nominated mail
or box office flop remains to be seen. 18 previews is a
pretty Grotesque thought and the big risk of spreading
myself too thinly has to be a concern. I have things to
say about all 18 races though so it will stand or fall on
todays results but I think my strongest bets are the 2
listed below and I hope I have that right today.

LINGFIELD 3.05 – Full Members Only Bet

WINCANTON 3.10 – CHARITY LANE 6/4

It’s possibly a day where the selections become victim
to the ammount of racing and the size of the message
and they could get marginalised as there is so much to
edit and decide upon but I do feel both horses will win.
Personally I think the obscene size of this mail has
made it imposible to find an account bet and I hope we
can make up for that with the selections.
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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

We had a quiet Friday with no business done.
The message hit a couple of winners and held its own which was as much
as I’d have predicted as I felt it was a rough day that didnt offer us much at all and because of that happy with results yesterday.

Eighteen Previews today spread around most meetings for Full Members and
all codes and the hardest task is extracting the best bits of business and getting them to the top of the message.

For the free blog today just the one race examined.

WINCANTON 3.10

BATHWICK TYRES YEOVIL HANDICAP HURDLE
(DIV I) (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-135)2m6f

13/8 Charity Lane, 4/1 Midnight Chase, 9/2 Khachaturian,
6/1 Mendo, 10/1 Captain Americo, 12/1 Portland Bill,
14/1 Snake Charmer, 20/1 Ned Ludd.

I will be surprised if CHARITY LANE is beaten in this race.
Its quite a good handicap hurdle. I have to be with the lightly raced novice CHARITY LANE in this.
This race has often gone to a Paul Nicholls Novice Hurdler.
He’s won this race 3 times before and two with a Novice Hurdler winners
which is also significant. Nicholls won this in 2002 with Iverain and that interests me as
Iverain won the same novice at Chepstow in December as CHARITY LANE last
ran in and won and he then went to a Grade 1 at Cheltenham.
This horse ran in the 2008 Aintree Bumper.
The Stewarts bought him for 200k a massive sum and he has won both hurdle races since.
He was odds on in both and they were easy races and he wasnt always impressive but its
bought him a reasonably good mark and I think he will improve past these.
One of my better bets.
If you want a saver then its Snake Charmer at 14/1

SELECTION -CHARITY LANE
SAVER -  SNAKE CHARMER

Blog comment:
Prices above were from earlier message for Full members.
Snake Charmer now best 9/1 Ladbrokes, Tote
Plenty of 7/4 around for Charity Lane

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Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Saturday November 15th

No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Cheltenham 2.00

JOE LIVELY

Each Way 6/1
blog comment: was 6/1 earlier in the day when advised to full members

best bookmaker price now 5/1in many places eg PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, BetDirect, Bet365

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CHELTENHAM 2:00

SERVO SERVICES HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m3f110y

7/2 Opera Mundi, 5/1 Halcon Genelardais, 6/1 Joe Lively, 13/2 Parsons Legacy, 8/1 Beat The Boys,  Karanja, 10/1 Comply Or Die, 12/1 Simon, 14/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Dom D´Orgeval, 100/1 Sweet Diversion.

SELECTION – JOE LIVELY Each Way

This is a complicated long distance Handicap Chase over 3m 3f. Its pretty hard to read as you do not know which horses are about to have prep races like the Welsh National and don’t want penalties or weight rises. I can not have KARANJA with only 2 chase runs and he looks inexperienced as does DOM D’OGEVAL with just 6 runs. I
dont want SWEET DIVERSION as she is out of the weights. This race has never gone to a horse from a Novice Chase so BEAT THE BOYS has to go. COMPLY OR DIE the Grand National winner pulled up in this race last year with far less weight and I would imagine that winning the National and the 15lbs rise that cost him will stop him winning and
many National winners struggle to win in their next season. I can see why PARSONS LEGACY is favourite after winning well on his seasonal debut. However you can argue he is better on faster ground and that he is best fresh and a career high mark today will take some overcoming. The
2007 winner came from the Scottish Grand National just as FLINTOFF, OPERA MUNDI and HALCON GENELARDAIS all do. I dont want HALCON GENELARDAIS as he is having his first run of the year and has topweight. This could be a prep run for the Welsh National. He is on a career high mark. The only seasonal debutant that defied a big weight in this race was in 1999 (Hanakham) and he only won in a 5 runner race and was a Sun Alliance Chase winner and HALCON GENELARDAIS wouldnt be my choice today. FLINTOFF looks weak in the market and may need his seasnal debut this year.  OPERA MUNDI has big chances and has to be shortlisted. JOE LIVELY has a great chance after a strong
seasonal debut run. So to does SIMON who was 5th in this race last year. I opposed SIMON last year as he is a small horse and I wasnt convinced he would get round. He did though and came 5th on ground that was too fast for him. This year he has better ground. He also has 10lbs less weight. Whilst there is always the chance SIMON smacks one of these fences he has ran very well here in his 3 Cheltenham stats and he isnt out of this. If I was shortlisting in this race I would shortlist the following 3 horses

JOE LIVELY – OPERA MUNDI – SIMON

I had strong reasons why OPERA MUNDI lost his last two races last season and dnt worry about those runs and I do like the fact that 6 year olds have a good record in the race. Wouldnt surprise me if he won but I would have to question his stamina over 27.5 furlongs. He is a french bred and his sire has not sired a 3m + winner yet and he has not proven his stamina yet. With SIMON lacking a run this year I do think the best bet in this race has to be JOE LIVELY each way.

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