Favourite Stats – National Hunt Racing

Knowing how favourites fare at different courses and for certain race types
is pretty useful information to be aware of before you place a bet.

If you fancy a favourite and the stats favourite back it up then you can go
at it with increased confidence.

On the other hand in situations where long term stats indicate favourites to
be poor value investments

you can perhaps lay the favourite or oppose it with a longer odds selection.

As a general rule the more you know, the more informed horse
betting
decisions you will be making.

Dave from RacingTrends has provided us with the below for today’s National
Hunt race meetings.

It is just a small snippet from a much more comprehensive horse racing stats
email his clients receive daily.

===================================

COURSE
FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT –

this is
a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Bangor-On-Dee
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

30

126

23.8

-£27.18

-21.6

3.50, 5.00

novice / beginner chases

20

58

34.5

-£13.85

-23.9

3.20

handicap hurdles

35

129

27.1

-£7.25

-5.6

4.25

non handicap hurdles

59

134

44.0

-£10.42

-7.8

2.15

novice hurdles

42

95

44.2

-£6.95

-7.3

2.50

bumpers

8

24

33.3

-£0.14

-0.6

5.35

Kelso
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

34

114

29.8

£5.88

5.2

3.30, 4.40

handicap hurdles

24

110

21.8

-£17.00

-15.5

3.00, 4.05

novice hurdles

32

71

45.1

£1.19

1.7

2.30

bumpers

2

13

15.4

-£7.77

-59.8

5.15

Newbury
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

31

120

25.8

-£6.46

-5.4

2.05, 3.40, 4.15

handicap hurdles

19

73

26.0

-£4.69

-6.4

1.30, 2.40

novice hurdles

25

65

38.5

-£11.81

-18.2

3.10

bumpers

4

15

26.7

-£4.38

-29.2

4.50

Stratford
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

38

149

25.5

-£11.61

-7.8

2.45, 3.45, 4.55

handicap hurdles

28

136

20.6

-£35.58

-26.2

4.20, 5.25

non handicap hurdles

61

159

38.4

-£21.12

-13.3

3.15

novice hurdles

30

81

37.0

-£20.19

-24.9

2.10

Provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

PS if interested contact Dave, tell him you saw this post and ask if he has any free trial spots available.

Chepstow Racing Tip

A good effort from Guy last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from Betfred as

#1 Their best odds guantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and other free racing tip from Guy.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

To visit Guys site click here ==> Betting Advice

=============================

C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

.

Saturday National Hunt Favourite Statistics

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ayr favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

43

130

33.1

+£3.90

+3.0

2.40, 3.15, 4.25

novice / beginner chases

30

51

58.8

+£5.63

+11.0

2.10

handicap hurdles

37

119

31.1

-£8.71

-7.3

3.50, 4.55

novice hurdles

38

74

51.4

-£6.82

-9.2

1.40

Newbury favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

non handicap chases

29

61

47.5

-£5.80

-9.5

2.30, 3.40

novice / beginner chases

20

37

54.1

-£1.14

-3.1

1.30

handicap hurdles

26

88

29.6

+£5.35

+6.1

2.00

non handicap hurdles

53

118

44.9

+£6.42

+5.4

3.05

novice hurdles

40

90

44.4

+£3.77

+4.2

4.15

bumpers

10

43

23.3

-£9.52

-22.2

4.45

Warwick favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

32

84

38.1

+£13.19

+15.7

3.20

novice / beginner chases

30

55

54.6

+£3.99

+7.3

1.45, 2.15

handicap hurdles

30

84

35.7

+£19.42

+23.1

2.50, 4.30

novice hurdles

30

79

38.0

-£19.42

-24.6

3.55

The above is just a small snippet of the horse racing statistics from the Saturday email of the RacingTrends service.

For those of you who are interested in self improvement .. a Free Horse Racing Course is also availalbe from RacingTrends.