Course Favourites Stats

This is a small snippet from a comprehensvive
client message from Dave Renham over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

This section looks at the stats for favourites at courses in certain
race types

(data taken from 2002 to 2008)

Beverley favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
46
175
26.3
-£29.69
-17.0
3.20,
4.25
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
99
381
26.0
+£1.36
+0.4
2.45,
3.55
3yo+
maidens
24
59
40.7
-£4.23
-7.2
5.00
3yo
only maidens
12
26
46.2
-£4.02
-15.5
2yo
maidens
51
125
40.8
-£0.96
-0.8
2.15
Carlisle favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
26
87
29.9
+£3.07
+3.5
9.05
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
35
184
19.0
-£41.77
-22.7
7.05,
8.35, 9.35
3yo+
maidens
11
16
68.8
+£2.31
+14.4
3yo
only maidens
4
12
33.3
-£4.63
-38.6
2yo
maidens
33
72
45.8
+£7.84
+10.9
7.35
Haydock favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
46
167
27.5
-£21.25
-12.7
2.20,
4.35
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
86
387
22.2
-£34.40
-8.9
2.55,
5.10, 5.45
3yo+
maidens
31
49
63.3
+£21.61
+44.1
3yo
only maidens
22
41
53.7
+£4.64
+11.3
2yo
maidens
51
140
36.4
+£2.45
+1.8
Leicester Favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
36
132
27.3
-£13.31
-10.1
2.30
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
60
246
24.4
-£7.02
-2.9
3.35,
4.10
3yo+
maidens
24
47
51.1
+£1.85
+3.9
5.20
3yo
only maidens
23
43
53.5
+£11.64
+27.1
2yo
maidens
59
157
-£37.60
-20.28
-12.9
Nottingham Favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
49
183
26.8
-£15.98
-8.7
8.50
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
75
313
24.0
-£28.74
-9.2
6.20,
8.20, 9.20
3yo+
maidens
21
50
42.0
-£8.55
-17.1
3yo
only maidens
36
85
42.4
-£6.96
-8.2
2yo
maidens
61
184
33.2
-£30.12
-16.4
7.20,
7.50
Sandown favourites
Race
type
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate %
Profit
ROI
%
Race
times
3yo
handicaps
53
208
25.5
-£19.36
-9.3
4.55,
5.30
3yo+/4yo+
handicaps
70
250
28.0
+£26.14
+10.5
2.40
3yo+
maidens
15
26
57.7
+£7.85
+30.2
3yo
only maidens
10
28
35.7
-£2.75
-9.8
2yo
maidens
42
102
41.2
+£8.36
+8.2

Free Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NOTTINGHAM 1.50

BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM

HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y

11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,

12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,

16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History

Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1

Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses

* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race

* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere

* Taking the Nottingham race first

* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70

* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36

* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more

* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)

* Horses absent over a month also struggled

Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.

* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May

* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record

* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)

* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)

* MOLLY TWO fails those trends

* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races

* None had under 3 runs this season though

* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome

* All winning fillies had more backclass than her

* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence

* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win

* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July

* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness

* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break

* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence

* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116

* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost

* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX

* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat

I think there are several that might win this if others

dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT

as a big priced runner but the way this should map

out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and

very well handicapped runner should make all and

run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any

horse manages to get to him and overtake him.

SHORTLIST

* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1

* She was 4th in this race last year

* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats

* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair

Silver Prelude is 11/4 with Bet365Betfred – BSq

Silver Prelude is 5/2 with Tote – VC

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice