The Cambridgeshire – Free Stats Research

The Cambridgeshire runs at Newmarket on Saturday.

My old mate Guy described it as a race that was

“difficult but not impossible”

He ducked the race in 2015 but in 2014 he

used his stats research to pick out two contendors.

He got the 20/1 early price winner and his other was 3rd at 12/ early price.

So “difficult but not impossible” seems apt enough when coming from him.

Anyhow he has posted up for free some of his early statastics research  work for this years race.

See here Cambridgeshire Statistics

Wwll worth a nosey if you have an interest in the race.

 

 

 

 

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Racing research boffin Dave Renham over at

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

has just sent out some interesting free research on this weekend’s

Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.

I have copied it here for you.

 


Cambridgeshire (3yo+)

 

 
Course – Newmarket
Distance – 1 mile 1 furlong
Date – September 28th
Average field size last 10 years – 32
 
 
Market Trends
 
Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12 for a break even situation.
Top three in betting: 4 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 6 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
 
 
LTO stats
 
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 16 days or less.
Position LTO: 1 win for horses that won LTO (from 54 runners). 
Position LTO: 4 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 123 runners.
LTO favourites: 2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 55 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 143 runners).
LTO price: Horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 71.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Newbury LTOhave provided 5 wins from 58. 
 
 
Age
 
Age
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
3
3
65
4.6
-£39.00
-60.0
4
3
129
2.3
-£82.00
-63.6
5
2
58
3.5
-£2.00
-3.5
6
2
36
5.6
+£82.00
+227.8
7+
0
35
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
 
 
 
Official ratings (OR)
 
OR band
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
93 and below
3
110
2.7
-£39.00
-35.5
94-99
4
120
3.3
+£7.00
+5.8
100 and above
3
93
3.2
-£44.00
-47.3
 
Draw
 
Draws
Wins
Runners
SR%
1-11
3
110
2.7
12-22
4
110
3.6
23+
3
103
2.9
 
 
Breeding
 
Breeding
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
GB
6
140
4.3
+£20.00
+14.3
GER
1
4
25.0
+£6.00
+150.0
IRE
2
134
1.5
-£83.00
-61.9
USA
1
40
2.5
-£14.00
-35.0
Other countries
0
5
0.0
-£5.00
-100.0
 
 
Class change
 
Class change
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Down in class
0
33
0.0
-£33.00
-100.0
Same class
8
213
3.8
+£4.00
+1.9
Up in class
2
75
2.7
-£45.00
-60.0
 
 
Trainer stats
 
Trainers: 2 wins from 8 for John Gosden.
 
 
General stats
 
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 2 wins from 56.
Claiming jockeys: 2 wins from 49.
Recent win: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 149 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £25.00 (ROI +16.8%).
Handicap wins: Horses that had not won a handicap previously have provided 0 winners 53.
Course winners: Horses that have previously won at the course have provided just 1 winner from 55.
 
 
Conclusion – A race that averages 32 runners is going to be tough to unravel and whatever happens the trends can only be used to create a shortlist of candidates. A good starting point looks to be ignoring runners that raced in a non handicap LTO. They have had 0 winners in the last 10 years and they have made up 22% of the total runners. It also looks worth avoiding horses that have failed to win a handicap as well. From a positive perspective, horses that were priced between 9/1 and 20/1 LTO have a good record. They have provided 70% of the winners from only 37% of the total runners. There seems no significant age bias although 7yos+ are probably worth avoiding (0 wins and only 3 placed runners from 36). There has been little too in the draw.  
 

Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Speed Ratings System

Speed ratings are quite simply a numerical measure of how fast a horse has run.

Top Speed in the Racing Post is a well known example of such a thing.

Creating speed ratings  however goes beyond mere clocking of a race time.

Ratings are often adjusted to account for factors such as going or course layout.

Picture two horses running at different tracks for example.

Both run similar distances races in the same time.

Are those horses equal in ability?

An initial knee jerk reaction may be to say yes.

But that may not be true.

Say for example Horse A ran on a flat track with good ground.

Horse B clocked the same time over the same distance but he ran on a more uphill course with more sticky ground conditions.

If horse A & B met in a  future race my pound would be on Horse B as it clocked the same time as Horse A but under tougher conditions.

Speed Rating compilers should if they are any good try and take account of such issues when compiling their speed ratings.

 

Speed Ratings System

There are several profitable tipping type threads in the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

One of them called Speedy 3 and 4 Year Olds is based around speed ratings.

It has proven pretty succesful so far with a profit tally from May to the end of July of just over 40 points level stakes.

Qualifiers for today Saturday Aug 11th are as follows.

2-05 Ascot – Steps (6/1 general)

2-55 Haydock – Gabrial (5/2 general)

3-00 Newmarket – Zumbi (13/2 Paddy Power, victor chandler)

4-45 Newmarket – Uriah Heep

6-15 Lingfield – Al Janadeirya

 

Good luck if following these today.

Not every day is a winner but they are from a method that is starting to build up a very tasty long term profit level.

It is just one of several profitable threads in the PunterProfiits Full member area.

If you would like a free trial of that site contact me and I will sort it for you

 

 

Free Racing Tip For Newmarket

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral Bet365 William Hill

===============================

This was provided by Guy Ward aka The Mathematician

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Free Horse Racing Tips

Newmarket Betting Statistics

Dave Renham has kindly provided some stats to help with a couple of races at Newmarket today.

Find out more about Dave at his own site. Click Here ==> Horse Betting Advice

——————————————————————

The trends and statistics are based on the last 20 years to 1990.

All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return
on investment;

LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

Newmarket 2.30 Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: Second and third favourites (inc. Joints) have produced
9 wins from 43 qualifiers showing a profit of £14.50 (ROI +33.7%).
Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 16 of the last
20 winners.
LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have produced 13
of the 20 winners (from 86 qualifiers) showing a profit of £24.72 (ROI
+29.1%).
Trainers: In form trainers are worth noting. Trainers whose
last winner came within his/her last seven runners have accounted for
17 of the 20 winners. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit
of £23.31 (ROI +18.7%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 80.
Position LTO: Horses finishing third or worse last time out
have produced just 1 winner from 62 qualifiers for a loss of £47.00
(ROI –75.8%).
Career starts:Horses having five or more previous runs have
produced 3 winners from 56 qualifiers for a loss of £43.50 (ROI -77.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten a length or more LTO have
provided just 2 winners from 73 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -74%).
Trainers: Trainers who have failed to register a win with
any of their last 12 runners (all flat races) have produced just 2 winners
from 38 qualifiers for a loss of £31.59 (ROI -83.1%).
Trainers: Just 1 win from 24 for Irish trained horses (the
last 23 since 1997 have all lost).
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): 7 wins from 21 for a profit of £1.22
(ROI +5.8%).
Favourites LTO: Horses that were favourite on their most recent
start have produced 8 winners from 64 qualifiers but they produced a
big loss of £33.82 (ROI -52.8%). Indeed all 25 LTO favourites that were
beaten in that race have come on to lose here as well.
Career Wins: 13 of the last 20 winners had previously won
twice or more. They have provided 65% of the winners from around 50%
of the total runners.

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has
been dominated by the top 3 in the betting.

Indeed the market tends to be a very strong guide with just one genuine
outsider (price 16/1+) from 80 qulaifiers managing to win. LTO winners should be noted, while horses
beaten a length or more LTO should be avoided as should beaten favourites. Trainers with a fairly
recent win are well worth noting in this race

Newmarket 3.05 – Middle Park – 6f (Group 1) 2yo colts / geldings

POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 14 of the last 20 winners came from the top two in
the betting.
Price: 12 of the last 20 winners have been priced 7/2 or shorter.
Backing all 28 qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £4.15
(ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: All of the last 20 winners finished in the first
three LTO.
Career wins: Horses that have won at least three times in
their career have produced 8 winners from 29 qualifiers. Backing all
qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £39.83 (ROI +137.3%).
LTO course: 5 of the last 9 winners raced at Ascot last time
out (from 9 runners).
Trainers: French and Irish trainers have saddled 6 winners
from 27 runners. Focusing solely on those that started first or second
in the betting the results improve to 6 wins from just 12 runners.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Just 2 wins from 70 runners for horses priced 10/1
or bigger.
Position LTO: Horses finishing fourth or worse last time out
have provided 0 winners from 27 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites:There have been 9 winning favourites from 20 for
a small profit of 32 pence!
Newmarket Trainers: Trainers from Newmarket dominated the
race in the mid to late 90s with wins in ’93, ’94, ’96, ’97 and ’98.
However, they have saddled just 1 winner since then from 27 runners.

Trends analysis: The market has dominated this race with the top two in the betting providing 70% of theIndeed the last 12 seasons has seen the winner priced in single figures.

All the winners finished in the first three LTO so ignore any horse
that did not.

Not many horses come into the race having won at least three times already, but note any runners that do.

Also note horses from France or Ireland that are well fancied (top
2 in the betting).

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Racing At Ascot

ASCOT, UNITED KINGDOM - JUNE 19:  Ryan Moore a...
Image by Getty Images via @daylife

A few thoughts for Ascot today from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED – MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power Bet365 vc * more

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Horse Bet For Saturday

NEWMARKET 3.25

SPORTINGBET.COM E B F FILLIES´ STAKES
(HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+ 0-100) 7f

100/30 Pyrrha, 7/2 Lassarina, 9/2 Adoring, 5/1 Victoria Sponge, 8/1 Volochkova, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Carcinetto, 16/1 Shaws Diamond, 25/1 Vitoria.

There has not been many Fillies handicaps at this time of
year in this sort of grade so statistically we dont have great angles.
What few there have been all went to unexposed horses.
I see OCEANA BLUE and CARCINETTO as far
too exposed and vulnerable. I dont see VITORIA defying
a nasty absence either. ADORING has had just one career
run. She also has a 62 day absence and races on soft ground.
Having one run looks something to be worried about.
I’ve looked at every fillies handicap that has ever been run at
any distance in Class 3 and better.
Only one horse has won one of these races and that horse (Tartouche)
did it at a different trip and won a muddling false pace race before
going on to win Group races. ADORING is trying to do something no
other horse has done. Given that she also has an absence and hasnt
been on the ground before I’d want to oppose her second time out in
a 0-97 handicap. I didnt think VOLOCHKOVA would have the class.
She scraped home in a triple photo on a Class 5 race on the sand
that was only a 0-75 class race and she now takes a 3 grade rise
into a Class 2 contest and I suspect that will find her out.
LASSARINA has just one run this season and all similar races show
you are much better off with at least 3 runs that season.
She could well be underraced especially with a 98 day absence as well.
I respect the fact she drops from a Group race but shes inexperienced
and far from  certain to be fit. She has a large weight for a 3 year old.
The fact she won a Conditions race on her debut and then ran in two Group
Races shows she has class but its done nothing for her handicap mark
and a mark of 97 wont be easy to overcome with all her other issues like
her absence and inexperience and just the one run this year. She may
win but she isnt for me. SHAWS DIAMOND may find this
a bit too warm. PYRRHA is lightly raced and open to some
improvement. She had a legitimate excuse last time out at
Newmarket when badly drawn. She is tempting each way
around 4/1 but I have a couple of reservations. She has no
form on ground softer than good and isnt sure to want the
soft ground. I also worry she has just two runs this year
and could be at a fitness disadvantage. VICTORIA SPONGE
looks interesting. She looked progressive recently as she
easily won two handicaps but came unstuck last time. It
was no surprise as she was a 3 year old giving weight and
a penalty to older horses when having to drop in distance
which didnt suit her. VICTORIA SPONGE will appreciate
this return to 7f today. I would rather she came from a 7f
race but that doesnt worry me as others have far more to
worry about in terms of fitness and experience and ground.
I think VICTORIA SPONGE is a decent each way bet.

SELECTION – VICTORIA SPONGE Each Way 6/1 at Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Betting


Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket

NEWMARKET 3.15

7/4 Cosmopolitan, 5/1 Lyceana, 13/2 Something Perfect,
7/1 15/2 Fanditha, 12/1 Astrodonna, 12/1 Penzena.

SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN

This is a 8f Fillies Handicap for 0-84 rated horses and there’s been 11 renewals of this race and 68 elsewhere. Horses with 3 runs struggle. I wouldn’t be interested in PENZENA with 3 runs LYCENA is a seasonal debutant. I do not like that profile. I’ve found 3 that won first time out much as none dropped in trip as she does. I would not see her as a selection. ASTRODONNA has a poor profile and none were like her in 68 races. I have no major problems with SOMETHING PERFECT but None like him won this race at Newmarket but did win other races at other tracks.
SOMETHING PERFECT looks competetive to me but a win on
her debut has left her hardly thrown in. FANDITHA has a chance as well but I could only bet one horse.

COSMOPOLITAN is a 4yo thats just won a maiden. There
were four runners that did that and 3 won. In this race there were 3 doing it and 2 of these won so COSMOPOLITAN looks a big positive. She gave 11lbs to 3 year olds from some big stables when winning a maiden over 3 lengths last time. That suggests to me she could outclass  a 0-76 class field like this. She has a Group 1 entry but the fact she has 8lbs more than any other horse and only has a 0-76 class field to beat swings it for me.

SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN
7/4 at Tote and Ladbrokes

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s Site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tipster