Premiership Soccer Betting Tips

A couple of soccer betting tips for you today from Phil over at the Football Bets website.  Phil is an ex bookmaker odds compiler. A case of gamekeeper turned poacher. Over two years of service so far he has racked up a very impressive net profit figure. There are more live bets in the Football Bets member area right now.  A mere £1 gets you entry today.

Mixed Double
Stoke MOST Corners v Blackburn (12:45pm)
Tottenham To Score FIRST v West Brom (3:00pm)
This double pays out 67/50 VC 5/4 PaddyPower William Hill 1pt

Blackpool v Birmingham (3:00pm)
BOTH Teams To Score at 3/4  BSq

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Free Soccer Betting Tips

Saturday Soccer Betting Tips

A couple of soccer tips for you this weekend.

These come 99Reds over at the Football Bets website.

As you can see there is little waffle to these.
The advice is based on 99 Reds stats database.
If you look at the historic results section on the football bets site
you will see his advice has been well worth following
with a significant long term net profit.

Yeovil v Huddersfield (3:00pm)
Huddersfield TO WIN at 3/4 William Hill Ladbrokes Stan James PaddyPower 1pt

OVER 2.5 Goals Double
Man City v Wolves OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
Preston v Bournemouth OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
This double pays out 7/5 Sky Coral 27/20 PaddyPower Blue Square Betfred BoyleSports  1pt

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Saturday Soccer Betting Tip

This one comes from Phil an ex bookmaker odds compiler who now tips over at the

==>  Football Bets <== website

He is on a good run at the moment hitting 8 winners in a row.

As one of his clients said  yesterday ..

Congrats btw 8 winners in a row is very impressive.

If you combined them into an accumulator, the odds would have came out as over 500/1!

Although a bit lucky it proves your doing something right!

Keep up the strict selection criteria, keep what your doing, you have one very happy customer here.

Steve

I myself feel that while eight in a row is certainly good going what is more impressive are his long term net profit figures.

See  ==>  Football Results <==

Anyhow enough waffle from me here is one of Phils bets for today.

Unusually for him he is on a treble as opposed to his normal singles.

Mixed Treble
Wycome TO BEAT Southend (3:00pm)
Tottenham MOST Corners v Birmingham (5:30pm)
Atletico Madrid MOST Corners v Malaga (7:00pm)
This double pays just over 13/10 (2.34) at WilliamHill just over 11/10 (2.14) Stan James and Evens Bet365 1pt

Saturday Football Betting Tips

This weekends free soccer betting tips come from 99Reds.

99Reds is an ex lower league manager and player who now uses his stats and ratings to find value in the soccer betting markets. He is one of a team of experts over at the Football Bets website.

His records there indicate you would be sitting on in excess of £5000 net profit had you backed each of his advices so far with a £100 level stake.

His fellow experts at the football bets website are also doing pretty well.

See here ==> Football Results

Anyhow here is what his stats and research indicate offers a bit of value for today.

Win Double   Forest and Norwich   23/20   Tote   1pt  -

Forest have 7 wins and 2 draws from their 9 games at home to bottom half teams plus
Preston have a number of injuries that will deplete them tonight and they have not
kept a clean sheet against a top half side away. In the game at Norwich,
Doncaster have multiple injuries and have only taken 2 points from 8 away
games against top half teams and they have also failed to keep a clean sheet away to a top half team.

Bournemouth v Sheffield Wednesday   Over 2.5 goals   10/11   William Hill   1pt  -

Bournemouth have a home record of 10-6 for Overs and Wednesday have an
away record of 9-6 for Overs, which relates to 4/6, so 10/11 does give value.
Also Bournemouth home games to bottom half teams are averaging 3.3 goals
and Wednesday away games to top half teams are averaging 3.4 goals.

Free Laying Tips

Free Laying Tips

- 31 out of 33 succesful lays so far.

- A net profit of 24.5 pts after 33 lays ( At Betfair SP )

- They are free.

Sound of interest?

These laying tips are newish to Dave Renham’s Horse Racing Blog

Whist new to his blog they originate from his analysis of years of past data.

They are actually determined from a small portfolio of independant past profitable approaches.

So there is quite a bit of research work behind them but the exact rules Dave wishes to keep secret for obvious reasons.

Worth Noting !

My early gut reaction to these lay selections is that they might best be viewed as a raw set of selections from which to select your own personal subset to actually place cash on.

The obvious area to bear in mind might be restricting yourself to laying below a certain odds band of your choice.

The odds range of selections is quite varied.

Dave on his thread uses a very simple and I guess the industry standard method of monitoring lay success.

ie a one point stake is deemed to be taken on the betting Exchange. Thus you win one point ( before commission ) on every succesful lay but face varying losses if a horse happens to win.

Considering the range of odds on these free lay selections ponder using a laibility based approach.

With this type of approach your risk remains constant no matter what odds.

What varies is how much you win on successful lays.

ie you adjust the stake posted up on Betfair to give yourself a pre determined liability. With this method you are not so afraid of long priced horses as how long a horses odds are will not impact on how much you can lose on a lay ( just how much you can win )

Value if you rememebr is not just about what odds a selection is at.  More key is the available odds to true odds ratio. A liability based aproach can often help you attack value lays at longer odds.

Anyhow..these free laying tips are worth a look.

Coming from Dave you know they are not random hunch type stuff. Much more so the result of a lot of nose to the grindstone research over many years.

Free is a good price :)

Click Here ==> Free Laying Tips

Trainer Based Tips

The selections below come from a thread on the full members message board over at www.PunterProfits.com

They are a good example of the ethos of that site.

PunterProfits recently produced a weighty research report in to National Hunt Trainers.

See Horse Racing Trainer Research

Zanybody who is just a member there decided to use the research information within the report as a base for his own trainer based selection method and strated posting up his selections in the full member area there.

The month of October produced some great results.

Here is the quick summary.

Sels 131
Wins 27
Profit SP +78.59
Profit BSP +148.53

Very nice for a single month I am sure you will agree !

His picks for today are as follows

These might win or lose today but either way they are gleaned from a  research report that analysed many many years of results and an idea that would have paid followers of that thread 148 points net profit if you had been backing them on Betfair last month.

Asct 12.20 Uncle Keef
Asct 12.55 Global Warming
Asct 2.35 Zaynar
Hayd 2.50 Peveril
Hayd 2.50 Tasheba

Find best early prices at

http://www.punterprofits.com/odds

Dutching Calculator

Dutching is the process of betting on more than one outcome in a  single event in order to generate the same profit no matter which selection wins.

eg Say in a horse race you wanted to bet two horses. Horse A has odds of 10/1 and Horse B has odds of 5/1

Your idea is to place a bet on each of varying stake in order tha no matter which of those two horses wins you walk away with the same net profit.

How do you work it all out ?

The easiest way to do it is by using a dutching caclulator.

See the link below for a couple of free dutching spreadsheets that will help you do all the boring number crunching quickly.

Click here == > Dutching Calculator

Weekend Football Bet

I am away this weekend so there will be no further blog posts for this weekend.

I have an early weekend bet in however from PremiershipPreview

There is a free trial on offer at the link below

http://www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk/rsuk-free-trial.htm

Nb this service is newish but has got of well with a decent net profit banked so far.

Fromatting is a bit skew wiff below .. their real output is much neater.

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Newcastle United v Sunderland

Sunday 1st February 1.30pm ko Live on Sky

Head to Head

2008/2009 Premier
League
25/10/2008 Sunderland 2-1 Newcastle
United
2007/2008 Premier
League
20/04/2008 Newcastle
United
2-0 Sunderland Premier
League
10/11/2007 Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle
United
2005/2006 Premier
League
17/04/2006 Sunderland 1-4 Newcastle
United
Premier
League
23/10/2005 Newcastle
United
3-2 Sunderland 2002/2003 Premier
League
26/04/2003 Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle
United
Premier
League
21/09/2002 Newcastle
United
2-0 Sunderland

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES
(LAST 20 GAMES)
NEWCASTLE
UTD – HOME

WON 7 35% 15/8
DRAW 6 30% 23/10
LOST 7 35% 15/8
OVER
2.5 GOALS
11 55% 4/5
UNDER
2.5 GOALS
9 45% 6/5
FOUR
GOALS OR MORE
6 30% 23/10
0-0
DRAW
1 5% 20/1

SUNDERLAND – AWAY

WON 5 25% 3/1
DRAW 4 20% 4/1
LOST 11 55% 4/5
OVER
2.5 GOALS
8 40% 6/4
UNDER
2.5 GOALS
12 60% 4/6
FOUR
GOALS OR MORE
3 15% 11/2
0-0
DRAW
2 10% 9/1

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS
– 7 LEAGUE GAME)

OVER
2.5 GOALS
3 43% 13/10
UNDER
2.5 GOALS
4 57% 3/4
FOUR
GOALS OR MORE
2 29% 12/5
0-0
DRAW
0 0% -

THIS SEASONS GOAL
AVERAGES PER GAME

THE
PREMIERSHIP
2.6 HOME AWAY
NEWCASTLE
UTD
3.0 3.4 2.6
SUNDERLAND 2.4 2.3 2.5

CURRENT FORM
NEWCASTLE UTD
LAST FIVE GAMES

FA Cup 03-01-2009
Hull
0-0
Newcastle
Premier League 10-01-2009
Newcastle
2-2 West
Ham
FA Cup 14-01-2009
Newcastle
0-1
Hull
Premier League 17-01-2009
Blackburn
3-0
Newcastle
Premier League 28-01-2009
Man
City
2-1 Newcastle

SUNDERLAND
LAST FIVE GAMES

FA
Cup

03-01-2009
Sunderland
2-1 Bolton
Premier
League
10-01-2009
Middlesbrough 1-1 Sunderland
Premier
League
17-01-2009
Sunderland
1-2 Aston
Villa
FA
Cup
24-01-2009
Sunderland
0-0
Blackburn
Premier
League
27-01-2009
Sunderland
1-0
Fulham

TEAM NEWS

Michael Owen and Joey Barton
picked up injuries against Man City that could keep them out for up to eight
weeks.
They join a
long injury list that includes Mark Viduka, Danny Guthrie, Cacapa, Alan Smith,
Obafemi Martins, Beye, Kadar and Gonzalez.
Shay
Given was left out of the side against Man City and is reportedly about to hand
in a transfer request.
Charles
Nzogbia has taken great offence to Joe Kinnear miss pronouncing his name and
is refusing to play for the club again.
Reports
suggest that a fee has been agreed with Bolton for Kevin Nolan and he could
be in the squad.
Nyron
Nosworthy is missing for Sunderland whilst Craig Gordon is not yet ready to
return from injury.
Keiron
Richardson should return to the starting line up however.

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE
ONLY)
NEWCASTLE
UTD SUNDERLAND

PLAYER
Goals PLAYER
Goals
Michael
Owen
8 Djibril
Cisse
8
Obafemi
Martins
6 Kenwyne
Jones
6
Shola
Ameobi
3 Michael
Chopra
2
Damien
Duff
2 Kieran
Richardson
2
Danny
Guthrie
2 Andy
Reid
1
Steven
Taylor
1 Steed
Malbranque
1

THE ORACLE’S MATCH
PRICES (100% BOOK)

NEWCASTLE UTD 15/8 35%
DRAW 12/5 29% SUNDERLAND
7/4 36%

ANALYSIS

MATCH: Newcastle
go into this fixture with a squad decimated by injuries and unsettled by want
away players. Shay Given has reportedly handed in a written transfer request
and looks set to join Man City, which will be a huge loss. Their injury situation
was bad enough at the start of the week, but the loss of Michael Owen and Joey
Barton on Wednesday night has turned it into a full scale crisis. With Mark
Viduka, Shola Ameobi and Obafemi Martins all injured too, the goalscoring responsibilities
will fall on the shoulders of inexperienced youngster Andy Carroll. He will
be supported by Damien Duff in what will be a very weak looking attack. Charles
Nzogbia added to Joe Kinnear’s problems yesterday by taking great offence to
his manager miss pronouncing his name in an interview. Nzogbia has refused to
play for Kinnear again and is really just using the incident as an excuse to
engineer a transfer before the window closes.
Even
if you put the injury/transfer crisis to one side, Newcastle have been in awful
form lately, picking up just a single point from a possible fifteen and getting
dumped out of the FA cup by Hull. Their excellent home support usually makes
it unwise to oppose the Geordies at home, however, the St James’ Park faithful
seem to be growing disillusioned with events at the club. Incredibly, there
are still tickets available for what should be one of the biggest games of the
season. Just seven wins in their last twenty home games also suggests that St
James’ Park is no longer the fortress it once was.
Sunderland
are in decent form with just one defeat in five games. They have kept back to
back clean sheets and possess a dangerous forward partnership in Cisse and Kenwyne
Jones. Steed Malbranque is the creative influence in midfield with eight assists
so far this season and Sunderland will look to him to provide the ammunition
for the front two. The Mackems are also boosted by the return of Kieron Richardson
who scored the winner in the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light earlier
in the season.
There
has been a gamble already on Sunderland but they are still value at 2/1 in my
opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Newcastle go off only marginal favourites
on Betfair and would be happy to back Sunderland at 7/4 or better.

GOALS: It
is difficult to judge how many goals there will be in this game as there is
no strong trend in any of the stats. Newcastle games tend to feature a high
number of goals with this especially being the case in home games. Sunderland
games tend to be relatively low scoring affairs however. Recent head to heads
are also evenly split between under and over 2.5 goals. If I had to go one way
or the other I’d probably back overs at evens. Newcastle’s injury problems,
and the absence of Shay Given, should see Sunderland score at least one, forcing
Newcastle to attack and leave space on the counter. An early goal could open
things up dramatically. That said, Newcastle’s depleted side don’t look to have
many goals in them.

GOALSCORERS: The
best bet here has to be Kenywne Jones at 12/5 with Skybet to score anytime.
Jones is bang in form with five goals in seven league games. He will fancy his
chances against Steve Harper and is a very fair price. Djibril Cisse is another
player with chances of getting on the score sheet and is also backable at 11/5.
Cisse is Sunderland’s top scorer with eight league goals. It’s difficult to
make a case for any Newcastle player but if I had to pick out someone I’d go
for Steven Taylor at 13/1 with PaddyPower to score anytime. He is a threat from
set pieces and most other firms are just 9/1.

RECOMMENDATIONS

2pts Sunderland to beat Newcastle 21/10 BoyleSports or 2/1 Betfred, PaddyPower and William Hill

Best Wishes

The Oracle

www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk