The below is from The Mathematician Site.

Just part of a much larger message from him today.

Fingers crossed for another decent priced winner from him again today.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at Betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – Stan James

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Our regular free Saturday Tip from Guy at the Mathematician site.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

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N e w m a r k e t   3.55

3/1 Tactfully, 9/2 Abishena, 9/2 Oojooba
7/1 Gifted Girl, 12/1 Graser 14/1 Na Zdorovie
Coquet, 16/1 Dare To Dream 20/1 Esentepe
25/1 Pretty Pebble, 33/1 Amthal.

The Montrose Fillies Stakes is a 2yo Listed race for
fillies over a Mile. It has an 11 year history. Always
a hard race to find the winner and so many shocks in
this race in the past show that. The History of this
suggests that the winner will have the following profile.

* She will have 1-2-3-4 career starts
* She will not have ran in the past fortnight
* She will not have come from a Nursery
* She will not come from a 6f race
* She will never have ran in Group class before
* She will have finished at least 2nd before in a race
* Horses winning 7f maidens have a 1-15 record
* None managed that with 1 career start
* I dont want horses from maidens with 3 runs
* No horse from maidens were absent 80 + days
* The bad news is this leads to a large shortlist
* The Good news is one horse does stand out

S h o r t l i s t

* COQUET – Shortlistable on my angles
* AMTHAL – Outside chance in an outsiders race 40/1
* GRASER – Has a reasonable profile
* OOJOOBA – Profile fine but I dont like the draw
* This years winning stalls over 8f here with 12 + runners
* 13 7 11 11 5 8 10 16 1 9
* The horse winning from Stall 1 was….Frankel !!!
* OOJOOBA may not find Stall 1 any help at all
* TACTFULLY won an 8f maiden on her only start
* Horses with 1 run finishing 1st or 2nd in an 8f maiden
* Running 2-6 weeks ago
* Horses with this profile had a 3-7 record
* Very interesting that 2 of these came from the same race
* The 2007 and 2008 winner won a Nottingham maiden
* TACTFULLY won the same race and has the same profile

Selection – TACTFULLY

7/2 at Tote VC Betfred Bet365

The following comes from Guy over at the Mathematician site

For more free advice from him see ==> free horse racing tips

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N e w m a r k e t 5.00

(8) GOLDEN DESERT 18/1

Each Way Bet

* Do not mix the name up with another horse
* Another horse in the same race has a similar name.
* The bet is Number 8 on the card Golden Desert

I’ve gone with GOLDEN DESERT and He is one of
those bets that you know is unsafe but his price does
compensate for that. He is knocking in a bit aged 7
and hasn’t won for 2 years and it’s not hard to see a
couple of younger horses beating him. That said it’s
a race with a lot of good negatives. There are some
very good reasons why he might win this race. I see
promise in his last run where I flagged him up before
the race at 20/1. He ran well last time and although
I wouldnt have tipped him at 8/1 the 18/1 is far too
big as is the 20/1 on Betfair so going with him today.

N e w m a r k e t 5.00

Betfred The Bonus King Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

4/1 Asraab, 13/2 White Frost, 8/1 Bonnie Brae
8/1 Golden Delicious, 10/1 Lutine Bell
12/1 Axiom, 12/1 Mr David, 14/1 Elna Bright
14/1 Gallagher, 16/1 Citrus Star, 16/1 Mia4s Boy
16/1 Woodcote Place, 20/1 Golden Desert
25/1 Space Station, 25/1 Striking Spirit.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 22 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 68 similar races at other tracks
* I think the Draw Shows you want a Middle Draw
* I would be worried about horses drawn very low
* I would also be worried about horses drawn very high
* I predict the winner will be drawn between 3 and 14
* STRIKING SPIRIT is not well drawn in Stall 16
* I didnt like him profile at all exposed from 6f
* Not without a recent race
* STRIKING SPIRIT is statistically weak
* ASRAAB could have been better drawn in stall 15
* ASRAAB only has 1 run this season
* Horses doing that in 68 races had a 1-19 record
* That winner was a completely different type
* ASRAAB has a long absence as well and only 3 runs
* Its an Unsafe profile and not a great draw
* I’d be a Fool to discount him from Godolphins
* As an option in this race he doesn’t really appeal
* WHITE FROST has a bad draw in Stall 1
* I dont like his profile from a 3yo handicap either
* There were 4 winners doing this
* Those with Under 7 runs that season were 0-48
* WHITE FROST has just 4 runs and I see him as weak
* WOODCOTE PLACE has a bad draw in Stall 14
* I looked at Exposed horss in 68 similar races
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 0-43
* WOODCOTE PLACE has only 4 runs and is 8 years old
* No exposed horse aged 6 won without at least 6 runs
* WOODCOTE PLACE has to be underraced this year
* MIA4S BOY also looks underraced this year
* He is 7 and has had just 4 runs this season
* ELNA BRIGHT won a 5f handicap last time
* More than happy to oppose him doing that
* Especially as an exposed 6 year old and he looks wrong
* AXIOM is 7 and only 2 winners were as old
* I looked at all exposed horss aged 6 or more
* Those without Pattern Class form won just 5 races
* Most of these had more runs that season than him
* None of these carried more than 9st weight as well
* AXIOM has a difficult task from Topweight
* GALLAGHER is very well treated these days
* There is a doubt about what he can achieve these days
* Recently changed stables he ran ok last time
* He is underraced this year though
* Exposed horses from 6f or shorter struggled
* Those that won were rare and all had far more runs
* GALLAGHER falls short for me
* Fillies dont have a great record in these races
* None were absent as long as BONNIE BRAE
* BONNIE BRAE looks wrong as a filly absent 63 days
* Winning last time with that absence worries me
* BONNIE BRAE doesnt offer me enough
* GOLDEN DELICIOUS is a 3yo filly
* These 3yo fillies have a poor record and he isnt for me
* SPACE STATION is an exposed 5yo
* Statistically he is generally fine with no weak areas
* The only question remains has he got the class
* There are some factors that worry me
* SPACE STATION has a career high mark
* He has only ever won in a Class 4 race before
* He needs to produce a career best by some way
* All his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* MR DAVID is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were just 1-44
* That winner had much less weight than he does
* None had raced in Group class before like him
* I Dont fancy him but there are better negatives
* Wouldnt be a complete shock but not for me

S h o r t l i s t

* CITRUS STAR is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those with 13-20 runs like him were only 1-59
* All 3 of these unexposed winners were different
* Troubles me he only has 5 runs that season
* I’d like more and I cant match him exactly to a winner
* CITRUS STAR is respected and shortlistable
* I did struggle to find enough I liked

* LUTINE BELL is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* I found 4 winners that had that profile in 68 races
* LUTINE BELL was 2nd last time in a tough race
* That was a career best performance
* He has to repeat that today but should go well
* A couple of things worry me
* I think he has plenty of weight for his profile
* There is a chance his last run was a falsely run race
* The 1-2-3 all came from behind that day
* They may have benefitted from the pace of the race
* I wasnt overkeen he has just 1 race in the last 59 days
* Shortlistable but not completely convinced

* GOLDEN DESERT is a worrying aged at 7
* That said we had 2 horses winning aged 7
* Both were very well raced that year like him
* Both ran well last time in 7f handicaps like him
* I flagged him up as very interesting last time out
* Go back a year and he was 2nd here in a similar race
* That run would win this and he is 9lbs lower today

SELECTION – GOLDEN DESERT 18/1 Eachway at BoyleSports & William Hill

See full market odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-24/newmarket/17-00/betting/

.

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral Bet365 William Hill

===============================

This was provided by Guy Ward aka The Mathematician

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Free Horse Racing Tips

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

==============================

This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

A copy of the www.mathematician-betting.co.uk message for today.

This is typical style of Guy’s daily output for clients there.

As you can see he knows a lot and works very hard.

Quite a few of his clients have been with him not for a month or six months even but for over 5 years !

=====================

No Strong Bet Today

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2 Bets Today

Lingfield 4.55

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1

Win Bet

Thirsk 6.30

DESERT STRIKE 8/1

Each Way Bet

* No Message Tomorrow *

This is the 11th message in a row without a break and
National Hunt cards tomorrow give me a chance for a
break and as I’m flagging now and tired it’s a good time.

Never really liked the cards on this day as there are so
many smaller field conditions races. The evening cards
are not as good as normal as fast ground has reduced a
few of the fields to uncompetetive races. I have decided
to go with two chosen bets on the day and both are big
prices in open handicaps. SEEK THE FAIR LAND has
a decent chance and looks overpriced to me but there’s
no margin for error in this race and we may need to be
lucky despite a good draw. DESERT STRIKE also has
a reasonable chance. Unusual bet for me as statistically
he is just average but I was given a good word for him
earlier in the week and having watched his last run in
the understanding he wasn’t fancied last time I liked a
performance that showed he had a lot in hand. Think
he is worth a bet as there are lots of horses I dislike in
this race and there are 4 places available. Worth a bet.

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Message Thoughts

Not that many places that I want to go today. I have a
hatred of Ascot and find it beats me more often than it
helps me so nothing there except the Victoria Cup stats
and I am only doing those as its the showcase handicap
of the day. I also hate the Haydock mixed card as usual.

There a lots of races I can’t get serious in. I dont want
to get dragged into smaller field races. The Maidens or
the trial races , conditions races or the pattern contests
are all unpleasant. I have looked at a few of these from
a safe distance but these rarely throw up stronger bets.

Far too many of those today and not that many suit me
today. It is normally a weak Saturday for us. Only doing
a short portfolio of races I feel I can offer something in.

****************************************************
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Friday’s Summary

One bet and a winner in GALA CASINO STAR which was
welcome after an unsteady few days. Hopefully that was a
sign of things to come. I thought the message was the best
for a while. Seemed to be lots of winners in there.
Overall  a strong message and with quite a lot going our way
it felt like it worked on a day I was forced into summarising more.

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P R O F I L E S   &  P R E V I E W S

Nottingham 1.50

9/4 Select Committee, 7/2 Secret Venue, 5/1 Absa Lutte
6/1 Atlantic Beach, 7/1 Black Baccara, 10/1 Bilash
14/1 Micky Mac, 14/1 Yurituni.

Unpleasant 5f Handicap to start with. Weak profiles for the
likes of BILASH and MICKY MAC. I found YURITUNI not
safe enough and unlike any winners. SELECT COMMITTEE
lacks a bit of backclass and because of that I just failed to get him
into safe statistical territory as all similar horses needed 3 runs that year.
I felt the same with SECRET VENUE who’s younger but has just
1 run this year. I am oppose these horses. I think one of 3 horses should be considered here

* BLACK BACCARA – Well raced filly with chances
* ABSA LUTTE – Older Mare but offers enough
* ATLANTIC BEACH – Solid enough profile

Lingfield 2.10

Seasonal debutants have won the last 6 Chartwell Stakes
but’s time for a change now. DEVER DREAM is having
her first run but the only winners as experienced as her
had by then achieved Group 1 Class before and she lacks
that. PYRRHA and TROPICAL PARADISE also racing
first time out are a little bit exposed to be doing that so
with all 3 of these badly drawn I expect the winner will
have run this year. No 3 year old that had raced at least
5 times before won with under 2 runs that season which
is a problem for EUCHARIST and no 3yo has won this
coming from 6f like PERFECT TRIBUTE. Overall the
safest choice looks to be FLAMBEAU the favourite.

Lingfield 2.40

100/30 Field Of Miracles, 4/1 Date With Destiny
5/1 Palm Pilot, 6/1 Zain Al Boldan, 7/1 Always The Lady
10/1 Galivant, 12/1 Al Mayasah, 12/1 Saint Helena
20/1 Barathea Dancer.

The Oaks trial looks destined for a horse that’s ran this
year. No past winners came from 3yo handicaps which
is why I reject ZAIN AL BOLDAN – SAINT HELENA
and PALM PILOT. The horses winning 10f maidens
all had more experience than ALWAYS THE LADY
and more runs that year. DATE WITH DESTINY is
respected but I think FIELD OFF MIRACLES might
improve past her and she would be my choice.

Nottingham 2.55

9/4 Shernando, 5/2 Hallstatt, 9/2 Bollin Greta
6/1 Emrani, 6/1 Wild Desert, 12/1 Daylami Dreams

This is a 14f Handicap. I looked at 112 similar races at this time of year.
Horses aged 4 coming from 3yo handicaps first time out are 2-22.
However fillies were 2-2 and Males had a 0-20 record and SHERNANDO
fails that as a male. The two winners also had much more experience and less
weight so I am avoiding SHERNANDO. Also out are BOLLIN GRETA
and DAYLAMI DREAMS both older seasonal debutants and not like any of the 112 winners.

These are my negatives.

EMRANI – Hard to read perhaps didnt do enough last time
WILD DESERT – Very hard to read but a possible
HALLSTATT – Limitations but easily the Fittest horse

Lingfield 3.10

The Derby Trial is another messy trials race.
HURRICANE HIGGINS would be my choice.

Ascot 3.25

Totesport Victoria Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 7f

8/1 Horseradish, 10/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 14/1 Al Muheer
14/1 Brae Hill, 14/1 Shamandar, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Excellent Guest, 16/1 Lowther, 16/1 Nasri, Lutine Bell
20/1 Fathsta, Himalya, 20/1 Mon Cadeaux, 20/1 Zero Money
25/1 Gouray Girl, 25/1 Noble Citizen, 25/1 Sunraider
28/1 Layla´s Hero, 33/1 Advanced, 33/1 Bay Knight
33/1 Bravo Echo, 33/1 Dhaular Dhar, 33/1 Douze Points
33/1 Golden Desert, 33/1 Manassas, 33/1 Oasis Dancer,
33/1 Parisian Pyramid, Rulesn´regulations, Corporal Maddox.

* The Victoria Cup is a 7f Handicap for 0-110 horses
* Since 1990 there has been 18 renewals of this race
* Avoid horses with 3 or more runs that season
* Avoid horses from 5f races
* Oppose horses aged 7 or more (0-46)
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose exposed 6 year olds with 1 run this season
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Avoid fillies who are 0-23 in this race
* Oppose exposed horses from 8f races if 1 run this year
* Oppose exposed horses from 6f or shorter
* Oppose exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time
* Avoid any horses from a Conditions race (0-41)
* Avoid 4 year olds with 13 + runs unless with Group 1 form
* Seasonal debutants have a 3-95 record
* All 3 were male aged 4 or 5
* They all came from 7f races and had 7-20 runs
* Horses with 6 or more career wins are 0-71
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more had a poor 1-73 record
* Horses from 6f races won 4 renewals
* All 3 that did it had 1 run this year
* None that did it ran within 2 weeks (0-29)
* Only 2 past winners ran in Group class before
* None were aged 6 or more
* Those doing that with under 21 career runs were 0-38
* Horses that come from 8f or more won 4 races
* Those that had 13 or more runs doing this were 1-73
* That winner ran within 2 weeks

SHORTLIST

* HORSERADISH – similar to 1999 winner – Draws a worry
* ZERO MONEY – Statistically fine if he is fit enough
* BRAE HILL – Acceptable profile

Nottingham 3.30

Hard race and I couldnt sort it.
BOUNTY BOX – Dont like the profile much
BEYOND DESIRE – Definate chance
KHOR SHEED – Acceptable
ANNE OF KIEV – Unmatchable but interesting
There is one bet that I see worth having if playing
ANNE OF KIEV as a Place Only Bet at evens

Haydock 3.40

6/1 Remember Now, 10/1 Knight In Purple
10/1 Tatispout, 12/1 Ballybriggan, 12/1 Higgy´s Ragazzo
12/1 Pires, 12/1 Rebel Dancer, 14/1 Jubail, 16/1 Eradicate
16/1 Hunterview, 16/1 Pokfulham, 20/1 Barizan
20/1 Chaninbar, 20/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Safari Journey
25/1 Rio Gael, 33/1 Andhaar, 33/1 Olympian, 33/1 Orsippus
33/1 Tarkari, 40/1 Caravel, 40/1 Mason Hindmarsh
50/1 Maoi Chinn Tire.

* The Swinton Handicap Hurdle is over 2m
* Always play with a few trends and shortlist
* Horses aged 7 or more have struggled
* You ideally want at least 4 hurdle starts
* You want a horse with under 13 hurdle starts
* Your horse must have won in their last 6 races
* Avoid all horses from handicaps in Class 3 or less
* You want a horse thats ran within 80 days
* All past winners had ran in a Class 2 race before
* Horses are strong coming from Novice Hurdles
* They are best with under 4-8 runs when 1-2-3-4 last time
* Most winners had 11st or less weight
* The two I shortlisted from these are below
* JUBAIL  – REBEL DANCER

Haydock 4.10

15/8 Victoire De Lyphar, 11/4 Society Rock
3/1 Bated Breath, 4/1 Royal Rock, 20/1 Tamagin.

This is a Conditions race over 6f with a history
going back to 1997. Dandy Nicholls keeps trying
and failing to win this race and runs the seasonal
debutant VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR. Only 2 past
winners won first time out and none were 4yo’s
like him. BATED BREATH is very sexy and in
the Cammidge Trophy we could clearly see how
unlucky he was. Thats not to say he would have
won though. If you take the 4 year olds that ran
in Listed races with 1 run this season you find a
few winners. SOCIETY ROCK shares the profile.
Of the pair I prefer SOCIETY ROCK. He is from
a better trial race. He has more experience which
has been an advantage and he has more backclass
as well and overall he fits in much better to past
winners than BATED BREATH. I wouldnt rule
out ROYAL ROCK who is almost right and not
too dissimilar to the 2002 winner who was older
but overall the best profile is SOCIETY ROCK.

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

Thirsk 6.00

Not enough of these 6f sellers to draw any firm conclusions
but I would rather have the older horses especially if having a recent run.
Last years 3rd BONNIE PRINCE BLUE has a sound chance and MARK ANTHONY could also go well.
Its easier to go with MARK ANTHONY on his last run but just
on profiles BONNIE PRINCE BLUE comes out best.

Warwick 6.15

My gut says CHOICE OF REMARK
My stats say No as no similar winner had 4 + runs

Thirsk 6.30

5/1 We´ll Deal Again, 13/2 Desert Strike, 8/1 Mullglen
9/1 River Falcon, 10/1 Bossy Kitty, 10/1 Chosen One
10/1 Dancing Freddy, 10/1 Sir Nod, 12/1 Leonid Glow
14/1 Clear Ice, 14/1 Mandalay King, 16/1 Incomparable
20/1 Sea Salt, BelinSky, 33/1 Ace Of Spies, 66/1 Sea Rover.

* This is a 6f Handicap
* I found the following to all be negatives
* BOSSY KITTY – INCOMPARABLE – SEA SALT
* The above 3 have hideous draws
* RIVER FALCON too old for one run this year
* LEONID GLOW – Absent too long as a mare
* SEA ROVER – BELINSky both weak
* ACE OF SPIES doesnt offer enough
* CLEAR ICE – No 4yo won from a seller
* ACE OF SPIES is unsafe
* WE´LL DEAL AGAIN exposed 4yo from 5f
* Similar horses were 1-59 that winner had more backclass
* DANCING FREDDY fails the same angles
* CHOSEN ONE – Lack of backclass troubles me
* MULLGLEN – Exposed 5yo 1 run this year from 5f
* Similar horses had a 0-17 record which troubles me
* MANDALAY KING – Unimpressive profile
* SIR NOD – Age and absence leaves him vulnerable

SELECTION

* DESERT STRIKE – Shortlisting him
* Not because he is statistically sound he is just average
* I have had a tip for him from a good source
* Very eyecatching on video last time as well

Thirsk 7.00

* Couldnt sort this race out
* I would not have backed these
* Lady Chaparral – Too inexperienced for 4yo filly
* The Caped Crusader – Not overkeen from 3yo handicap

Thirsk 7.30

13/2 Trans Sonic, 8/1 More Than Many, 8/1 Mujaadel
8/1 Our Boy Barrington, 8/1 Ravi River, 10/1 Legal Legacy
10/1 Rosbay, 14/1 Emeralds Spirit, 14/1 Fazza, 16/1 Mozayada
16/1 Tobrata, 20/1 Apache Warrior, 20/1 Call Of Duty 20/1 Hill Tribe,
20/1 Red Scintilla, 33/1 Baltimore Jack 33/1 Chambers, 33/1 Fifty Moore.

* This is a Mile Handicap
* I looked at all Handicaps here with 12-18 runners
* There were 23 of these races since 2009
* The best place to be drawn is stalls 3-14
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 7 6 7 9 4 5 3 10 7 4 12 4 3 8 6 6 9
* LEGAL LEGACY – Profile not good enough to ignore draw
* EMERALDS SPIRIT – Negative profile and draw
* MUJAADEL won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 1-40 record trying to follow up
* That winner had 4 runs this year he has two
* He looks unsafe to me
* OUR BOY BARRINGTON – comes from 3yo handicap
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* RED SCINTILLA – Fillies from 3yo handicaps are 0-31
* TOBRATA – lacks backclass from 7f with 1 run this year
* ROSBAY – down from 10f and 1 run this year
* Thats not a safe profile and he is unsteady
* BALTIMORE JACK – CHAMBERS look weak
* FIFTY MOORE – Not easy to like first time
* CALL OF DUTY ran too badly last time
* HILL TRIBE – Didnt offer enough
* APACHE WARRIOR – Too inexperienced
* MOZAYADA – comes out badly
* MORE THAN MANY – respected but not quite right
* RAVI RIVER – respected but old to be following up
* FAZZA – Strong runner
* TRANS SONIC comes out well
* Exposed 8yo coming from 7f with 3 + runs that year
* Beaten last time but not losing more than 10 lengths
* Similar horses had a 3-5 record

SHORTLIST

TRANS SONIC – Win Bet 8/1

FAZZA – Saver Bet 12/1

Warwick 7.45

This is a 3yo handicap over 7f. I have Freckenham as a
negative failing a 0-36 statistic.  Shostakovich was not
able to be matched to a winner. Tamareen just failed as
he didn’t have the backclass and Nawaashi is supossed to
be the owners second string. I don’t like the race but the
best profile was ROSSETTI. Horses with his profile had
a 6 W 2 record so I will go with him but dislike this race.

Warwick 8.15 – I wouldnt oppose APRIL FOOL

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Another comprehensive analysis piece today from Guy Ward over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tipster

===========================================

HAYDOCK 3.20

Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD – JAUNTY JOURNEY
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.

SHORTLIST

WEST END ROCKER
MOBAASHER
NICTO DE BEAUCHENE
LE BEAU BAI

The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.

SELECTION

LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
Ladbrokes , Sky , Bet365, William Hill etc

Each Way

Believe it or not this is just a snippet from a much more comprehensive members message from Guy over at Mathematician Betting.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

———————————

TODAY’S BEST BET

WARWICK 1.40

THE QUANTUM KID 10/1

Each Way

I have 4 additional bets for full members and all 4
could have beencontenders for my best bet today.
I have decided that a couple of these are short
enough prices in their races and the other pair
and in tough races so I have decided to go with
a bit of value today.

I like the Novice Handicap at Warwick and have
been playing some videos here. Complicated race
but I am convinced you want a Novice Hurdler in
ths sort of race that is lightly raced and ideally a
lighter weighted horse. I think ART BROKER is
my biggest danger around 6/1 and could have the
ability to go very close on his flat form. I’d drawn
more towards THE QUANTUM KID 10/1 here.

I liked him a lot on Video last time. He should be
thrown in off a mark of 98. His last run was in an
unusually warm Southwell Novice Hurdle when he
led jumping really well and only got caught 2 out.
That run was bound to have been needed after an
absence. The horses beating him are different class
and rated much higher than any of todays rivals.

Trainer Robin Dickin said last year that he wanted
to get the horse handicapped. He had a pelvis injury
so had time off last year but his last run tells me he’s
capable of winning off this mark. His trainer won the
race last year. He has a good record at his local track.
There is a little bit of market support as well which
doesn’t hurt. I feel there is optimism that he can go
very close in a bad race at a decent price. I will risk
him as my best bet today rather than the obvious.

WARWICK 1.40

Warwick Supports The Racing Lottery
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110)  2m

7/2 Shalambar, 11/2 Art Broker, 13/2 Switched Off
13/2 Tara Warrior, 10/1 Kayfton Pete, 10/1 Peace Corps
12/1 Jomade, 12/1 Mega Watt, 12/1 Nosecond Chance
16/1 Hail Caesar, 16/1 Irish Symphony, The Quantum Kid
20/1 Superior Knight, 33/1 Cruise Control.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle. There are 36 similar races at this time of year.
SHALAMBAR is a 5 year old and I think the wrong type of 5 year old.
First of all 5 year olds that won last time out were 0-14 and those that placed last time are 0-29.
Horses aged 5 from Handicaps had a weak 1-48 record.
The 5 year olds you want are lightly raced types unplaced in a Novice
Hurdle last time and SHALAMBAR is not that type so I want to oppose him.
HAIL CAESAR is also the wrong type of 5 year old.
I think CRUISE CONTROL has too much to do.
I feel SUPERIOR KNIGHT has stamina doubts.
Horses coming from Novice Hurdles are fine assuming certain conditions.
The Novice Hurdlers all had fewer runs than TARA WARRIOR
so he looks vulnerable and none won with his absence and that’s enough
to take him out. IRISH SYMPHONY is a mare and I don’t think in good enough form.
MEGA WATT comes out badly. I cut him some slack down in trip but his profile is
not safe enough. I dont like JOMADE hammered at 100/1 in his
Novice Hurdle last time. KAYFTON PETE is a little exposed
for a 5 year old to come from a Novice Hurdle especially with no
Graded form and such a high weight. A shortlist of 4 horses.

PEACE CORPS – Impossible to read. First run for new stable

SWITCHED OFF – Shortlistable but not quite right

NOSECOND CHANCE – Acceptable Profile but big weight

ART BROKER – There are similar winners

THE QUANTUM KID – The right type of profile

I have listed these in order of profile. PEACE CORPS is
the most riSky. SWITCHED OFF has a slightly better one.
NOSECONDCHANCE can’t be ruled out. Best profile for
me is ART BROKER and THE QUANTUM KID both of
these lightly raced Novice Hurdlers.  Impossible to know
how much of their ability has been hidden or how much
they will be showing today. Both Trainers have angles I
like here. I think ART BROKER is the biggest danger.

SELECTION

THE QUANTUM KID EACH WAY 10/1

Blog Comment:
10/1 was available earlier when this was provided to Mathematician members.

Best Bookmaker Price now 8/1 at numerous places eg Ladbrokes Hills Bet365

See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-02-12/warwick/13-40/betting/

PS This free blog just gets small snippets.

The above is only a small part of todays full message.

A snippet from Guy’s much longer message for today is below.

You can visit his site direct by clicking this link ==> Racing Tips

LINGFIELD 3.40

View Our 2011 Fixtures At lingfieldpark.co.uk
Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 6f

100/30 Perfect Act, 4/1 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Five Star Junior
6/1 Breathless Kiss, 6/1 Sioux Rising, 8/1 Vintage
10/1 Green Manalishi, 12/1 The Scorching Wind.

This is another 6f handicap but a classier 0-92 race and
there are 188 similar races. THE SCORCHING WIND is
underraced at the moment and comes out badly coming
down from a Mile. GREEN MANALISHI looks to have
problems aged 10 coming up in distance and doing that
without a recent race. Mares like SIOUX RISING from
7f races and 9 or more runs were 0-48 and that’s why I
feel she is opposable. ANNE OF KIEV is a mare coming
from a 6f handicap without a recent run with a fortnight.
Thats not a safe profile. I found 7 winners doing it but
all 7 of these had form in at least a Class 3 race before
and she doesn’t. Most of the mares that won were also
younger and her lack of backclass means I can’t match
her to any winners. Throw in a rise in the weights for
being beaten and she’s now 7lbs higher than her highest
winning mark and in a Class she has never tasted before
and I have my concerns with ANNE OF KIEV. I think
VINTAGE is shortlistable but he has been off longer at
31 days than most others and I felt there were stronger
runners especially as he has never won in this class and
not from his handicap mark.

BREATHLESS KISS – Shaky profile but just ok
PERFECT ACT – Solid profile but a tough handicap mark
FIVE STAR JUNIOR – Good profile and likes small fields

SELECTION

FIVE STAR JUNIOR Each Way 4/1 Ladbrokes

Tips and Analysis for the Welsh National from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

CHEPSTOW 1.45

Coral Welsh National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m5f110y

4/1 Synchronised, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Dance Island
10/1 Watamu Bay, 14/1 Arbor Supreme, 14/1 Dream Alliance
14/1 Exmoor Ranger, 14/1 Giles Cross, 14/1 Silver By Nature
16/1 Ballyfoy, 20/1 Ballyfitz, 20/1 I´moncloudnine
25/1 Old Benny, 25/1 Royal Rosa, 33/1 Bench Warrent
33/1 Theatre Dance, 40/1 Dashing George, 40/1 Flight Leader
40/1 Magic Sky, 50/1 Eric´s Charm.

The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over an extended
3m 5f. Usually run in December the race has been moved to
January after the recent cold weather.
That leaves a dilemma about whether to rely on statistics for this
and all other races  when they have been run in December and
especially when all  horses are a year older once we get to January.
In the end the best plan for me was to look at all similar races over 3 months

* December – January – Febuary have 65 Handicap Chases
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases between 3m 5f and 4m
* Thats 65 of these races in Class 2 – Listed – Grade 3

There are several of these that look quite simple to eliminate from consideration.
ERIC´S CHARM and ROYAL ROSA do not appeal and look too old with no
winners aged 11 or more since 1976. FLIGHT LEADER – MAGIC Sky are also passed
over as too old. DASHING GEORGE has completely a wrong
preparation. BENCH WARRENT didnt do much last time and
I wasnt sure he will stay in the ground. All his sires wins over a distance like this in
the class are on firm ground and he looks unsafe to me. OLD BENNY looks on the
road to Cheltenham and probably wont be fit here. I looked at all 10 year olds
that ran in these races with 1 run that season. The only horses that won with the
profile were last time out winners. He was beaten too far and it may be the
same as last years race when he was beaten miles after 1 poor run last year.
BALLYFOY is facing a similar problem as a 10yo with 1 run this year and he
doesnt have much backclass. I’d question his stamina. I’d question his suitability to the track too.
THEATRE DANCE may struggle  coming from 2m5f and he has not achieved much this season.
ARBOR SUPREME may pop up but I dislike his profile as an  exposed horse and beaten easily
on his only run this year. He  looks badly handicapped to me and may be on the road back
to the Grand National. The problem with GILES CROSS apart  from Stamina and a
testing absence is his last run.
Very few  winners managed to win these sort of races without finishing last time and I felt he was unsafe.

* SYNCHRONISED doesnt convince me completely
* My argument is his weight and his class
* He has 11st 6lbs and No form in Graded races before
* I looked at horses with no previous runs in Graded races
* Those that had 11st or more had a 0-29 record
* Almost all past winners of the race had GradedForm before
* 13 of the last 14 winners had no more than 11st weight
* He has to overcome that weight stat without graded form
* SYNCHRONISED has a stiff task for me with his weight
* SILVER BY NATURE was 2nd in last years race
* He had 10st 2lbs last year yet has 11st 12lbs this year
* Thats a massive jump considering he’s run just twice since
* SILVER BY NATURE fails a lot of angles
* He has a horrible weight with 11st 12lbs
* He ran badly last time out as well
* Exposed with 1 run this year he looks wrong to me
* All these are serious problems for an exposed horse
* DREAM ALLIANCE won this last year with 10st 8lbs
* This year he has a crippling weight of 11st 12lbs
* He is not in the same form as he was last year
* He fails multiple angles including a poor last run
* I think its too much of an ask to win again
* WATAMU BAY is very inexperienced with 3 chase runs
* Going back to 1990 the winners had these Chase runs
* 10-9-4-4-16-7-24-8-14-17-8-13-22-12-12-9-14-18
* WATAMU BAY will be the least experience winner in ages
* WATAMU BAY also comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 1 of the 65 winners managed that
* That horse was older and had more experience
* He also won within 2 weeks and had a stone less weight
* 11st 3lbs is a tough ask for a Novice Chaser
* Dont forget 13 of the last 14 winners had 11st or less
* I don’t like his chance when inexperienced with weight

There is a case statistically for I´MONCLOUDNINE. The
big problem is Chepstow is a track he has never experienced
before. It would worry me his wins are on sharp flat tracks and most
were right handed too.  I´MONCLOUDNINE also suffers from a lack of backclass.
Almost all past winners of the race  had Graded Form before and none with
13 or more runs failed  to have form in a Graded race before.
I nearly shortlisted him but I couldnt get past the Track suitability.
What swung it was the half brother who only won right handed on fast tracks.

SHORTLIST

EXMOOR RANGER – DANCE ISLAND
MAKTU  -BALLYFITZ

* DANCE ISLAND has 4 Chase starts
* There were 2 recent winners with only 4 chase runs
* Statistically I can turn a blind eye to some of his problems
* I can not match him exactly to any of the 65 winners
* Partly as he has an absence but so do many
* Partly  as he is 8 and comes from 3m or shorter
* I don’t feel he has a bad profile just not a good or safe one
* I would have to question whether he will stay this far
* I think there is a serious stamina doubt in this class

* EXMOOR RANGER has a good profile
* You would be worried about stamina on this ground
* I dont see him getting home on this ground
* Noy with a tough weight and a stiff handicap mark

* MAKTU has a decent chance with strong track form
* Ground – Consistency and a decent weight all in his favour
* I would have liked more backclass
* He is unexposed over fences though
* He has never been out of the 1-2-3-4 in all 8 chase starts

BALLYFITZ is technically too old as an 11 year old but as
he wouldnt have been last week it seems we should overlook
that.I ran his profile in all the 65 other races.
There were 3  winners aged 11 that had 1-2 runs that season like him.
None of them were as absent as long as he is but we have to overlook
that when so many others have absences because of the harsh winter.
BALLYFITZ ran well in this race last year.
I felt he’d been overprepared last year.
He had a hard race in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham and then took in the
Hennessy as well. That was more than enough but he then went and won over
hurdles at Sandown as well and this may have been too much for him.
This year he has been far better prepared and now he gets to race off a 10lbs lower mark.
That will be a serious help as will a better preparation and he has only has 12 starts over fences.
I’m overlooking his age as he would have been a
10 year old last week and this is a career low mark for him in a Chase.
His run last year suggests he should at least place.
I feel the best option is to bet both horses in a split stake bet.

SELECTION

MAKTU – Win Bet 13/2  ( now 6/1 Coral  Bet365 BoyleSports )

BALLYFITZ – Win Bet 16/1 + Bet365  BoyleSports  William Hill