Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Racing research boffin Dave Renham over at

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

has just sent out some interesting free research on this weekend’s

Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.

I have copied it here for you.

 


Cambridgeshire (3yo+)

 

 
Course – Newmarket
Distance – 1 mile 1 furlong
Date – September 28th
Average field size last 10 years – 32
 
 
Market Trends
 
Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12 for a break even situation.
Top three in betting: 4 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 6 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
 
 
LTO stats
 
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 16 days or less.
Position LTO: 1 win for horses that won LTO (from 54 runners). 
Position LTO: 4 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 123 runners.
LTO favourites: 2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 55 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 143 runners).
LTO price: Horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 71.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Newbury LTOhave provided 5 wins from 58. 
 
 
Age
 
Age
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
3
3
65
4.6
-£39.00
-60.0
4
3
129
2.3
-£82.00
-63.6
5
2
58
3.5
-£2.00
-3.5
6
2
36
5.6
+£82.00
+227.8
7+
0
35
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
 
 
 
Official ratings (OR)
 
OR band
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
93 and below
3
110
2.7
-£39.00
-35.5
94-99
4
120
3.3
+£7.00
+5.8
100 and above
3
93
3.2
-£44.00
-47.3
 
Draw
 
Draws
Wins
Runners
SR%
1-11
3
110
2.7
12-22
4
110
3.6
23+
3
103
2.9
 
 
Breeding
 
Breeding
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
GB
6
140
4.3
+£20.00
+14.3
GER
1
4
25.0
+£6.00
+150.0
IRE
2
134
1.5
-£83.00
-61.9
USA
1
40
2.5
-£14.00
-35.0
Other countries
0
5
0.0
-£5.00
-100.0
 
 
Class change
 
Class change
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Down in class
0
33
0.0
-£33.00
-100.0
Same class
8
213
3.8
+£4.00
+1.9
Up in class
2
75
2.7
-£45.00
-60.0
 
 
Trainer stats
 
Trainers: 2 wins from 8 for John Gosden.
 
 
General stats
 
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 2 wins from 56.
Claiming jockeys: 2 wins from 49.
Recent win: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 149 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £25.00 (ROI +16.8%).
Handicap wins: Horses that had not won a handicap previously have provided 0 winners 53.
Course winners: Horses that have previously won at the course have provided just 1 winner from 55.
 
 
Conclusion – A race that averages 32 runners is going to be tough to unravel and whatever happens the trends can only be used to create a shortlist of candidates. A good starting point looks to be ignoring runners that raced in a non handicap LTO. They have had 0 winners in the last 10 years and they have made up 22% of the total runners. It also looks worth avoiding horses that have failed to win a handicap as well. From a positive perspective, horses that were priced between 9/1 and 20/1 LTO have a good record. They have provided 70% of the winners from only 37% of the total runners. There seems no significant age bias although 7yos+ are probably worth avoiding (0 wins and only 3 placed runners from 36). There has been little too in the draw.  
 

Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Wokingham Handicap At Royal Ascot

This fairly detailed assessment of today’s Wokingham handicap

was provided via the free service at Dave Renham’s Horse Race Report site.

 

Wokingham Handicap Stats

 
 
 
Course – Ascot
Distance – 6 furlongs
Date – June 22nd 2013
Average field size last 10 years – 26
 
There was a dead heat in 2003 so there are 11 winners in total not 10.
 
Market Trends
 
Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a profit of £5.75 (ROI +57.5%).
Top three in betting: 6 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 7 wins for the top six in the betting (6 wins for top 4).
Price: Horses priced 6/1 or less have provided 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £10.75 (ROI +89.6%).
 
 
LTO stats
 
Days since last run: A real spread of wins and no clear angles.
Position LTO: 3 wins for horses that won LTO (from 45 runners). 
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: All 11 winners finished in the first six LTO.
LTO favourites: 4 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 41 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 6 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 87 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced 4/1 or shorter LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners from only 37 runners.
Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten over 5 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 86.
 
 
Age
 
Age
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
3
0
2
0.0
-£2.00
-100.0
4
6
85
7.1
-£11.25
-13.2
5
3
62
4.8
-£34.50
-55.6
6
2
60
3.3
-£15.00
-25.0
7+
0
53
0.0
-£53.00
-100.0
 
 
Official ratings (OR)
 
OR band
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
96 and below
4
76
5.3
-£33.50
-44.1
97-101
4
94
4.3
-£46.25
-49.2
102 and above
3
92
3.3
-£36.00
-39.1
 
 
 
 
 
Draw (NB 9 of the 10 races were run at Ascot so only 9 races analysed – 10 winners)
 
Draws
Wins
Runners
SR%
1-9
6
81
7.4
11-18
2
81
2.5
19+
2
83
2.4
 
 
Breeding
 
Breeding
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
GB
5
124
4.0
-£63.25
-51.0
IRE
3
105
2.9
-£81.50
-77.6
ITY
1
3
33.3
+£31.00
+1033.3
USA
2
23
8.7
+£5.00
+21.7
Other countries
0
7
0.0
-£1.00
-14.3
 
 
Class change
 
Class change
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Down in class
3
64
4.8
-£26.50
-42.7
Same class
5
155
3.2
-£76.75
-49.5
Up in class
3
41
7.3
-£10.50
-25.6
 
 
Trainer stats
 
Trainers: no trainer has won the race more than once in the last 10 years.
 
 
General stats
 
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 57.
Claiming jockeys: 1 win from 28.
Recent win: 4 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 102 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £75.25 (ROI -73.8%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 10 or less handicap runs have provided 10 winners from 119 runners (SR 8.4%); horses who have run in 11 or more handicaps have provided just 1 winner from 143 runners (SR 0.7%).
Career runs: Horses who have raced 15 times or less in their careers have won 9 races from 88 runners (SR 10.2%); horses who have raced 16 or more times in their career have won 2 races from 174 runners (SR 1.1%).
 
 
Conclusion – Interesting to see such a competitive handicap that averages 26 runners each year have 4 winners priced 6/1 or shorter. Having said that last year’s winner was 33/1 (the biggest priced winner in the 10 years). 4yos seem to have an edge and more lightly raced older runners also do well. A recent win within the last three starts would have incurred steep losses so that needs to be taken into account. Lower draws seem to have had the advantage, while it looks best to ignore any horse that was beaten more than 5 lengths LTO.

 

Wokingham Best Fit To Trends

For Current Live Odds see
http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-06-22/ascot/16-25/betting/all-odds

The Wokingham with it’s large field size is obviously
not the easiest race to pick the winner in.

Working through my ten year race trends however
to find which horses are the best fit to the stats
would lead me to the following two

  • Duke of Firenze 8/1 generally
  • Nocturn 12/1 generally

A bit higher is available  on Betfair

For those of you who prefer each way note that several bookies are offering 5 places

Bet365 – sky – BoyleSportsPaddy Power – victor chandler

 

 

 

A Little More Info Today

With regards to the Ascot 5.00 Duke of Edinburgh

http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-06-22/ascot/17-00/betting/all-odds

Key trends here are horses that were priced 8/1
or shorter LTO who are aged 5 or younger.
This narrows the field down by around 40%.
From there horses wearing headgear have an excellent record
and three of the initial shortlist are wearing some type of headgear:

  • Ustura
  • Silver Lime
  • Opinion

Hence this is my best trends based shortlist for the race with Opinion having the added advantage
of being trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has an good record in the race.

Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk