10 Year Trends For Three Big Races On Saturday

Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10.
Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market.
Price: Horses priced 9/2  or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%).
LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.
Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.

2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle– 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites  from 10 qualifiers showing a

profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race.
Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%).
Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO.  French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter.
Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton.
Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father.
LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23.
LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10  year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Cheltenham Racing Advice

A small snippet from todays message from the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk

3.35 Cheltenham – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market position: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top four in the betting.
LTO course: 6 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham or Haydock last time out.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Beaten favourites: 13 beaten favourites have contested this race and 6 have won. Backing all runners would have produced a huge profit of £39.73 (ROI +305.6%).
Course form: 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Sex: Mares / fillies have had just 2 runners but both won!
Career wins: Horses with 6 or more career wins have provided 6 of the winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 and backing all selections would have produced a loss of £4.90 (ROI -44.5%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worst LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32 for a loss of £15.00 (ROI -46.9%).
Headgear: Horses wearing headgear have managed just 1 win from 20.
Price: All 28 horses priced 20/1 or bigger have been beaten. Only two of them have been placed (both 3rd).

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: Two wins apiece for Alan King and Howard Johnson.
Age: 5 year olds have provided 3 wins from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 6 year olds have provided 1 win from 18 qualifiers (SR 5.6%); 7 year olds have provided 1 win from 17 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 8 year olds have provided 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds have provided 4 wins from 14 qualifiers (SR 28.6%); 10 year olds or older have provided 0 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: favourites have struggled in recent years with just 1 win in the last 6 seasons. However, in general is a decent guide with 8 of the last 10 winners coming from the top four of the betting. Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Haydock last time out have done well as have beaten favourites. It also pays to look for a decent run LTO and a horse that has numerous career wins to his/her name. Female runners are rare but the 2 runners have both won. In terms of age, horses aged 10 or older have struggled (only 1 placed effort from 15 runners).

Racing Post Ratings – A Study

If you have any interest in horse racing at all I am sure at some point you have opened up the Racing Post Newspaper and noted their ratings for each horse on their printed race cards.

These ratings also go by the name of PostMark

Quite simply they are score based on past form of the horse and are meant to give some indication of the best horses in the race.

All fine and dandy but one thing I have never seen printed in the racing post is any information as to whether these ratings are any good or not.

eg If you backed all the top postmark rated horses would you make cash or lose it?

Fortunately I know a man who has crunched the numbers and done the research to give you the answer to that one.

He has also gone a step further and broken the research down  further including aspects such as looking for top rated runners that are quick returners to the track and also the effect of market position ( fav, 2nd fav etc )

Go to the page below and about half way down the page you will see a section about the racing post ratings research.

Click here ==>    Racing Post Ratings Research

NB this is FREE

There are however bits of more detailed research you can choose to pay for if you like.

For example he has worked out a few past profitable systems based on racing post postmark ratings.

You get access to these and everything else that is full member only there if you register then upgrade your membership for £25.

Saturday Racing Analysis

Saturday Racing Analysis from Dave Renham of RacingTrends

To Visit Dave’s site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Statistics

Two big races today where I have taken a 20 year trends approach in an attempt to create some shortlists.

3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £24.00 (ROI +36.4%).

Last time out winners: 17 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Price: 16 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 3/1 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £37.00 (ROI +41.6%).

Seasonal debut: 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut.

Draw: In big fields (18+ runners) all winners have been drawn middle to high. The lowest winning stall position in such races has been 12.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times since 1998. Sir Michael Stoute has been successful 3 times in 1997, 2000 and 2001.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting market have provided 2 winners from 215 runners for a loss of £172.00 (ROI -80%).

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 148 runners.

Career starts: Horses that raced 8 times or more in their career have provided 0 winners from 44.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 20 for a loss of £11.67 (ROI -58.4%).

Course winners: Course winners have won 7 races from 97 (SR 7.2%); non course winners have won 13 races from 245 (SR 5.3%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race although favourites have a poor record. Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners not surprisingly have a good record, while horses making their seasonal debut are around 5 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). Big priced outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have not scored in the last 20 years. Finally, runners from the stable of Aidan O’Brien clearly demand the upmost respect.

Conclusion – no horse perfectly matching the trends so we have to find horses that match the trends the best. Both Aidan O’Brien’s horses did not win LTO (which is a negative) and of the pair Mastercraftsman looks the right portion of the betting. Arguably the best fit is Evasive – currently 10/1 4th favourite. So from a trends perspective Evasive and Mastercraftsman look the rip. Rip Van Winkle if deposed as favourite (which is possible) then that would make up the trends trio.

3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 15 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 9 winners. That equates to 45% of the races from which they have provided just 20% of the total runners.

Market position LTO: 12 of the last 20 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their previous start have provided just 1 winner from 47 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -63.8%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 101 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -58.4%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 3 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -65.8%). However, they have provided 2 of the last 4 winners.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 8 wins from 23 for a profit of 34 pence!

Age: 3yos have won 5 races from 60 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 4yos have won 7 races from 76 qualifiers (SR 9.2%); 5yos have won 5 races from 44 qualifiers (SR 11.4%); 6yos have won 2 races from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 7yos+ have won 1 race from 42 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have won 16 races from 199 runners (SR 8%); female runners have won 4 races from 61 (SR 6.6%).

Trends analysis: Horses priced in single figures is a potential starting point, while, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO and those that were priced 16/1 or bigger on their most recent start. Combining this one positive and two negative stats your shortlist would have found the winner in 70% of the races from just 27% of the total runners. Another negative worth using when eliminating runners is horses aged 7 or more.

Conclusion – Chief Editor, Borderlescott and Amour Propre are the obvious three for the trends pick.

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Racing Bets from RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Bets From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Gustavo (1.25 Sandown) –

best price 33/1 (sporting bet / skybet) – EACH WAY

Approved Force (3.05 Sandown)

– take 22/1 best odds guaranteed atWilliam Hill – EACH WAY

Diriculous (3.30 Great Leighs)

- take 2/1 best odds guaranteed at William Hill / Stan James / Boyle Sports – WIN

Saturday Racing

First some trends – 15 years worth

2.35 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase – 2 miles (Grade 1)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
12 of the last 15 winners have come from the top three in the betting.
Price:
9 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
Position
LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 8 of the last 15 winners.
Seasonal
debutants: Horses making their seasonal debuts have a good record with
7 wins from 25 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced
a £8.50 profit (ROI +34%).
Market
position LTO: Horses that were first or second favourites last time
out have provided 13 winners of the 15 winners.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Exeter last time out have a good record
with 4 of the 17 qualifiers going onto win this race. Backing all qualifiers
would have yielded a £5.83 profit (+34.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses ranked fifth or higher in the betting have provided just 1 winner
from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £33.00 (ROI -82.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 44 qualifiers.
Position
LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse last time out (and
completed the course) have produced just 2 winners from 34 qualifiers
for a loss of £22.50 (ROI -66.2%).
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time out have
a surprisingly poor record with only 3 wins from 37 qualifiers for a
loss of £25.67 (ROI -69.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)
from 16 for a small loss of 82 pence.
Age:
5 year olds have won 3 races from 8 qualifiers (SR 37.5%); 6 year olds
have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 7 year olds have won
5 races from 23 qualifiers (SR 21.7%); 8 year olds have won 3 races
from 23 qualifiers (SR 13%); 9 year olds and older have won 2 races
from 33 qualifiers (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a fairly good record, but it looks best to concentrate on the top three
in the betting as they have provided 80% of the winners. Indeed focusing on
horses priced 15/2 or shorter has provided every single winner in the last 15
years. From there, pay special attention to horses either making their seasonal
debuts, and/or those who were first or second in the betting on their most recent
start. Moving onto negatives, if they raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time
out this then there is almost certainly value looking elsewhere, as is there
looking for horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO (having completed
course). This process should pinpoint a clear trends pick. In terms of age,
5 years have a good record from a small number of runners, while 9 year olds
or older look poor value.

Conclusion – Master Minded
has a good trends profile; slightly better than second favourite TidalBay, but
TidalBay looks the value price of the pair to me.

3.05 Sandown – Listed handicap hurdle 2 miles ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have won 7 races from 49 qualifiers
for a profit of £11.50 (ROI +23.5%).
Position
LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out. Backing all qualifiers
would have produced a profit of £13.33 (ROI +20.2%).
Weight
carried: The bottom five in the weights (inc. joints) have a good record
with 10 wins from 82 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded
a profit of £23.50 (ROI +28.7%).
Racing
Post Speed ratings: Topspeed in the Racing Post has had 5 top rated
/ joint top rated winners for a profit of £29.25 (ROI +162.5%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
There have been 3 winning favourites from 15 qualifiers for a loss of
£8.17 (ROI -57.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 88 qualifiers
for a loss of £62.00 (ROI -70.5%).
Weight
carried: The top five in the weights have a poor record with only 2
wins from 73 qualifiers and a loss of £69.67 (ROI -88.2%).
Days
since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 7 weeks or more
have produced 0 winners from 35 qualifiers.
Beaten
favourites: 25 beaten favourites have run in this race and all have
lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 year olds have won 5 races from 49 qualifiers (SR 10.2%); 5 year olds
have won 5 races from 74 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 6 year olds have won
4 races from 51 qualifiers (SR 7.8%); 7 year olds plus have won 1 race
from 45 qualifiers (SR 2.2%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a poor record which is no surprise considering the race usually attracts
a big field and hence is a competitive affair. Having said that outsiders have
a poor record also, so it seems best to focus on horses priced under 20/1. The
bottom five in the weights have won 67% of the races from just 37% of the runners,
so these horses merit close scrutiny, as do horses won last time out. Horses
to avoid seem to be horses at the top of the weights, beaten favourites last
time out, 7 year olds and older, and horses that have been off the track for
7 or more weeks.

Conclusion – from a trends
perspective Spear Thistle looks the one to be on.

At an each way price Approved
Force looks interesting. Had good form as 3yo and he looks overpriced. Hills
offer best odds guaranteed at 22/1 and that rates good each way value.

2.00 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – 2 miles (Grade
2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 10 winning favourites (including joints)
from 17 qualifiers for a profit of £4.81 (ROI +28.3%).
Market:
14 of the last 15 winners have come from the top two in the betting.
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
LTO
winners: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Recent
form: 23 horses have come into the race having finished first or second
on all of their last three starts and 8 have won.
Jumping:
All 15 winners came into the race having never fallen / unseated previously
in their careers.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record
with 6 of the 20 qualifiers going onto win this race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses third or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from
50 qualifiers for a loss of £43.00 (ROI – 86%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 27 qualifiers.
Course
winners: Course winners have only won once from 15 runners for a loss
of £12.62 (ROI -84.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 and 5 year olds have won 5 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 6
year olds have won 7 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 21.2%); 7 year olds
plus have won 3 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 13.6%).

Trends analysis: the top
two in the market have dominated this event winning a all bar one of the races,
with favourites doing especially well winning 67% of them. From here you need
to focus on good jumpers as none of the winners had previous fallen in their
careers. Last time out winners have a good record, while horses that ran at
Cheltenham last time out have a good record also.

Conclusion – of the front
two in the market, second favourite Araldur has the better profile and at 7/2
looks better value.

——————–

1.25 Sandown – this is an
open handicap hurdle but one horse stands out for me at the early prices. Gustavo
hails from a stable that seems to be running into form and he has plenty of
other positives as well. He has a good record fresh, has a good record on right
handed tracks (4 wins, 2 placed from 8 ) and acts on the ground. The jockey
looks a potential negative but he has an 18% strike rate for Venetia Williams
so perhaps that is not a worry. At 33/1 best price at sporting bet and sky bet
/ mid 40s on Betfair he looks a worthwhile punt. If you don’t have an account
with sporting bet / sky bet then take the best odds guaranteed at either bet
365 or William Hill (both price up at 25/1).

3.30 Great Leighs – Diriculous
looks a solid favourite and 2/1 looks a fair bet to me.

This message was provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk