Soccer Betting Tip

2PTS Crystal Palace to beat Newcastle in the Championship

21/10 PaddyPower or 2/1 Coral, BoyleSports and Bet365

(Saturday 22nd August, 3.00pm KO)

After a summer of turmoil, Newcastle have surprised many people by making a positive start to the season. The Geordies have picked up seven points from their opening three fixtures in an unbeaten start. However, the off the field circus shows no signs of leaving town and it can only be a matter of time before results on the pitch begin to suffer. The exodus of “star” players continues as Damien Duff this week followed Michael Owen, Mark Viduka, Obafemi Martins, Sebastien Bassong and Habib Beye out of St James’ Park. Steven Taylor is supposedly in talks with Everton at the time or writing and he too looks to have played his last game for the club. It must be extremely difficult for caretaker boss Chris Hughton to keep morale up as the uncertainty and exodus continues, with only two weeks left to bring in any replacements. Whilst Newcastle are likely to carry on picking up points at home, I think they will carry on from last season where they struggled badly on the road, winning just two away games. Every supporter of a Championship club will have their club’s home fixture against Newcastle in the diary and they will be seen as a major scalp.

Crystal Palace should be the proud owners of an unbeaten record so far this season but I’m sure you are all aware of what went on last weekend at Ashton Gate. For those of you who may have been away, Palace basically scored the opening goal yet the referee somehow decided it had gone wide and ruled it out. To add insult to injury, Bristol City then grabbed a last minute winner to leave colourful Eagles boss Neil Warnock foaming at the mouth. However, Palace bounced back mid week with an impressive win at Ipswich and are well capable of following that up with another victory over Newcastle. Neil Warnock has several of the most promising youngsters in the Championship in his squad and names such as Nathanial Clyne, Lee Hills, Victor Moses and Sean Scannell are likely to become familiar to fans of Premiership clubs before too long. They also have England U21 forward Freddie Sears on a season long loan from West Ham. Warnock seems to have put together a decent blend of youth and experience and Julian Speroni, Clint Hill, Darren Ambrose, Shaun Derry and Alan Lee have all been around the block and will offer guidance to the club’s youngsters. I don’t think there will be too many opportunities to back Palace at 2/1+ at home this season and they have a far better chance than the odds suggest in my opinion.

The Oracle

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Saturday Premier League Bet

Stoke v Newcastle Saturday 11th April 5.30pm ko Live on Setanta  

H2H in Premier League

2008/2009
06/12/2008 Newcastle United 2-2 Stoke City

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES) STOKE – HOME (LAST 15 GAMES)

WON 8 53% 9/10
DRAW 4 27% 11/4
LOST 3 20% 4/1
OVER 2.5 GOALS 5 33% 2/1
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 10 67% 1/2
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 3 20% 4/1
0-0 DRAW 2 13% 7/1

NEWCASTLE – AWAY

WON 3 15% 11/2
DRAW 8 40% 6/4
LOST 9 45% 6/5
OVER 2.5 GOALS 13 65% 8/15
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 7 35% 15/8
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 6 30% 23/10
0-0 DRAW 3 15% 11/2

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 1 LEAGUE GAME)

OVER 2.5 GOALS 1 100% -
UNDER 2.5 GOALS 0 0% -
FOUR GOALS OR MORE 1 100% -
0-0 DRAW 0 0% -

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME

THE PREMIERSHIP 2.5 HOME AWAY
STOKE 2.5 2.1 2.9
NEWCASTLE 2.8 3 2.6

CURRENT FORM STOKE – LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League 01/03/2009 Aston Villa 2-2 Stoke DRAW
Premier League 04/03/2009 Stoke 2-0 Bolton WON
Premier League 14/03/2009 Everton 3-1 Stoke LOST
Premier League 21/03/2009 Stoke 1-0 Middlesbrough WON
Premier League 04/04/2009 West Brom 0-2 Stoke WON

NEWCASTLE – LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League 01/03/2009 Bolton 1-0 Newcastle LOST
Premier League 04/03/2009 Newcastle 1-2 Man Utd LOST
Premier League 14/03/2009 Hull 1-1 Newcastle DRAW
Premier League 21/03/2009 Newcastle 1-3 Arsenal LOST
Premier League 04/04/2009 Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea LOST

TEAM NEWS Newcastle are without defenders Steven Taylor and Jose Enrique.   Joey Barton and Mark Viduka are closing in on a return but won’t start training again until next week.   Forwards Shola Ameobi and Peter Lovenkrands also remain on the sidelines.   Stoke have the luxury of a near fully fit squad to choose from, Mamady Sidibe is their only absentee.  

STOKE Squad: Sorensen, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Abdoulaye Faye, Higginbotham, Lawrence, Delap, Whelan, Etherington, Beattie, Fuller, Simonsen, Pugh, Cresswell, Olofinjana, Kelly, Camara, Sonko, Amdy Faye, Diao, Cort, Tonge, Griffin.    

NEWCASTLE Squad:Harper, Forster, Krul, Beye, Bassong, Coloccini, Edgar, Cacapa, Butt, Duff, R. Taylor, Gutierrez, Nolan, Guthrie, Geremi, Smith, Martins, Owen, Carroll, Xisco, Ranger.      

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

STOKE                                                                         NEWCASTLE

PLAYER Goals PLAYER Goals
Ricardo Fuller 8 Michael Owen 8
James Beattie 6 Obafemi Martins 7
Mamady Sidibe 3 Shola Ameobi 4
Ryan Shawcross 3 Damien Duff 3
Rory Delap 2 Steven Taylor 3
Abdoulaye Faye 2 Peter Lövenkrands 2

THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)

STOKE                          5/4      44%

DRAW                          12/5      29%

NEWCASTLE                11/4      27%      

ANALYSIS

MATCH:   Stoke’s win at West Brom last week was their first on the road this season. It moved them six points clear of the relegation zone and was their third win in four games. They are now unbeaten in six and victory over Newcastle tomorrow would move them nine points clear of the drop zone. Stoke’s home record is up there with that of the big four and they are unbeaten at the Britannia stadium by anyone outside the top six. It is a very difficult place to go and Stoke have kept four clean sheets in their last five home games.

Newcastle on the other hand, are a team in deep trouble. They have no wins in six and just one win from their last fifteen. The club has been nothing short of a circus this season and whilst the appointment of Alan Shearer as manager has pleased the fans, it could well be the final nail in the coffin. Shearer has no experience of management whatsoever and will be hard pressed to get performances out of the same limited pool of talent that far more experienced managers failed with. If we compare his appointment to that of Kevin Keegan, we can see that Keegan took eight games to win his first game. Shearer has just seven to keep Newcastle up.   Appalling away form has been a problem several different Newcastle managers have failed to solve. This season, the Geordies have won just two of fifteen away games. Last season they won just three of nineteen. Going back to the start of last season therefore, Newcastle have won five out of thirty four away games. That’s a win percentage of just fifteen and the equivalent fixed odds price is 11/2. We can say, therefore, that since the start of last season, the true chances of a Newcastle victory away from home is represented by odds of 11/2. Consequently, it is strange that Newcastle are as short as 7/4 to beat Stoke tomorrow considering this price represents 36%, more than double their average win ratio?   Newcastle have lost one of the best keepers in the league in Shay Given, and will be without Steven Taylor and Jose Enrique at the back tomorrow. The loss of Taylor could be especially painful as he would have played an important role against a very direct Stoke side with a significant aerial threat. Joey Barton is still missing in midfield and Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins are still struggling for sharpness after long injury layoffs.   Stoke fought back from two goals down to earn a point at St James’ Park earlier in the season and are more than capable of winning on their own patch. I think that the “Shearer affect” has been given far too much weight and it is interesting to see that Ladbrokes and the Tote are just 6/5 about a home win. The 8/5 on offer by Coral is definite value.

GOALS:   Stoke home games average just 2.1 goals per game whilst Newcastle away average 2.6. Under 2.5 goals is rightfully favourite but offers little value at 8/11. The reverse fixture earlier in the season saw four goals but a repeat is unlikely tomorrow. Stoke have been a lot more solid at the back recently and with Owen and Martins lacking sharpness, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stoke win to nil.

GOALSCORERS:   James Beattie has bagged six goals for Stoke since signing in January and is a fair price at 15/8 to score anytime with Corals. He should also be on penalty duty and is just 5/4 with Hills. If you want a few quid on someone at a bigger price then you could do worse than backing Ryan Shawcross at 25/1 with Victor Chandler to score the first goal. Shawcross has been particularly dangerous from set pieces recently scoring in three of Stoke’s last five games.

RECOMMENDATIONS 2PTS STOKE TO BEAT NEWCASTLE 8/5 Coral

Best Wishes

The Oracle

www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk