Strong Horse Racing Stat

The below is a newish section fromThe Mathematician’s very comprehensive daily racing message.

He calls it the Strongest Statisic Today

In short it points to something interesting found

through his research.

Some days it may point to a horse to think about backing.

Other days it may be a strong stat that could lead you to opposing a short priced favourite.

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S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c  T o d a y

Uttoxeter 2.10

VICTORIA ROSE 10/1

Another Positive Statistic today. I dont expect her
to win rated lower than most of her rivals but she is
a double figure price and comes out curiously well so
I wouldnt put anyone off having a small interest bet.

* All Mares Novice Chases run in January
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Running over 19f or more last time
* Between 1 and 4 runs that season
* There were 8 horses with that profile
* They finished W 2 W W W W W W
* VICTORIA ROSE  shares that profile

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS price has come in a  bit since Mathematician Members got this earlier today. Now best priced 9/1 at VC

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Cheltenham Racing Advice

A small snippet from todays message from the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk

3.35 Cheltenham – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market position: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top four in the betting.
LTO course: 6 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham or Haydock last time out.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Beaten favourites: 13 beaten favourites have contested this race and 6 have won. Backing all runners would have produced a huge profit of £39.73 (ROI +305.6%).
Course form: 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Sex: Mares / fillies have had just 2 runners but both won!
Career wins: Horses with 6 or more career wins have provided 6 of the winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 and backing all selections would have produced a loss of £4.90 (ROI -44.5%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worst LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32 for a loss of £15.00 (ROI -46.9%).
Headgear: Horses wearing headgear have managed just 1 win from 20.
Price: All 28 horses priced 20/1 or bigger have been beaten. Only two of them have been placed (both 3rd).

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: Two wins apiece for Alan King and Howard Johnson.
Age: 5 year olds have provided 3 wins from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 6 year olds have provided 1 win from 18 qualifiers (SR 5.6%); 7 year olds have provided 1 win from 17 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 8 year olds have provided 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds have provided 4 wins from 14 qualifiers (SR 28.6%); 10 year olds or older have provided 0 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: favourites have struggled in recent years with just 1 win in the last 6 seasons. However, in general is a decent guide with 8 of the last 10 winners coming from the top four of the betting. Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Haydock last time out have done well as have beaten favourites. It also pays to look for a decent run LTO and a horse that has numerous career wins to his/her name. Female runners are rare but the 2 runners have both won. In terms of age, horses aged 10 or older have struggled (only 1 placed effort from 15 runners).

Mathematician Betting Tip

A snippet from Guy’s much longer message for today is below.

You can visit his site direct by clicking this link ==> Racing Tips

LINGFIELD 3.40

View Our 2011 Fixtures At lingfieldpark.co.uk
Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 6f

100/30 Perfect Act, 4/1 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Five Star Junior
6/1 Breathless Kiss, 6/1 Sioux Rising, 8/1 Vintage
10/1 Green Manalishi, 12/1 The Scorching Wind.

This is another 6f handicap but a classier 0-92 race and
there are 188 similar races. THE SCORCHING WIND is
underraced at the moment and comes out badly coming
down from a Mile. GREEN MANALISHI looks to have
problems aged 10 coming up in distance and doing that
without a recent race. Mares like SIOUX RISING from
7f races and 9 or more runs were 0-48 and that’s why I
feel she is opposable. ANNE OF KIEV is a mare coming
from a 6f handicap without a recent run with a fortnight.
Thats not a safe profile. I found 7 winners doing it but
all 7 of these had form in at least a Class 3 race before
and she doesn’t. Most of the mares that won were also
younger and her lack of backclass means I can’t match
her to any winners. Throw in a rise in the weights for
being beaten and she’s now 7lbs higher than her highest
winning mark and in a Class she has never tasted before
and I have my concerns with ANNE OF KIEV. I think
VINTAGE is shortlistable but he has been off longer at
31 days than most others and I felt there were stronger
runners especially as he has never won in this class and
not from his handicap mark.

BREATHLESS KISS – Shaky profile but just ok
PERFECT ACT – Solid profile but a tough handicap mark
FIVE STAR JUNIOR – Good profile and likes small fields

SELECTION

FIVE STAR JUNIOR Each Way 4/1 Ladbrokes

Haydock Horse Racing Advice

Haydock Horse Racing Advice

The below comes from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

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Clearly the big issue today is the rain that is falling everywhere.
We might see ground changes at many tracks but that’s not
certain to happen and it does make it impossible to approach
the day as confident as I would like.
The Conditions are against us with this rain.
If I were to have an account bet today I couldn’t answer
the obvious question of whether the ground is right so
decided to have a No Account Bet Saturday because of this.

By tomorrow we will know the Newmarket ground better
and the draw advantage so Sunday may be the time for a
bet there.

Despite the above I know many of you will want to have an interest today.
Here is one to consider if so.

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA – LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find  none  of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Saturday Horse Betting

I have gone with IMPERIAL SWORD at Ayr.
To be honest if I had complete faith in the Trainer and could rely on the fact
he is doing his best I might have upgraded him as a bet. Its a very hard yard to read though.
IMPERIAL SWORD was 2nd in this race last year and should have won.
Ran well last time. He will probably be in last place 3 furlongs out and will come late.
Happy enough with the 8/1 but I know we are taking a risk with the stable.

AYR 5.50

CHAMPAGNE G H MUMM GRAND CRU APPRENTICE
HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 6f

4/1 Hitches Dubai, 9/2 Botham, 9/2 Downhill Skier,
11/2 Feeling Fresh, 7/1 Imperial Sword, 10/1 Thunder Bay,
12/1 Almost Married, 12/1 Liberty Trail, 25/1 Coconut Moon, 33/1 Forrest Star.

* 317 Similar low grade handicaps at this time of year
* Only seven of the 317 winners came from Maidens
* Those that came from 5f maidens were 0-42
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that
* Horses aged 4 from maidens were 0-28
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that as well so he is avoided
* ALMOST MARRIED is a negative
* He won last years race but not with just 1 run and 81 days off
* FEELING FRESH has a poor profile in my view
* Horses from 8f or more with 3 or less runs that year are 2-78
* None did it with 13 or more runs
* FEELING FRESH fails that and looks opposable
* THUNDER BAY has a poor profile
* FORREST STAR – COCONUT MOON are out of form mares
* LIBERTY TRAIL has an unsafe profile
* All the above horses are negatives
* DOWNHILL SKIER is drawn 1 and I dont like that
* The last 12 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* 11 of the 12 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* He beat IMPERIAL SWORD last time out
* IMPERIAL SWORD was second in this race last year
* He was also unlucky in running
* BOTHAM is well drawn and has no obvious flaws
* I prefer IMPERIAL SWORD and Botham

SELECTION

IMPERIAL SWORD

Blog Comment was 8/1 or more earlier
Now 7/1 Betfred, Corals , Tote

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

to visit guys site click here => free horse racing tips

Saturday Racing Tip

NEWBURY 2.50

EBF/THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATION
MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE FINAL (A HANDICAP)
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  2m6f110y

7/2 Jaunty Flight, 5/1 Lamanver Homerun, 13/2 Rate Of Knots, 15/2 Shatabdi, 10/1 Katess, 12/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Pyleigh Lady, 33/1 Ceoperk, 50/1 Ruby Dante.

This is a Mares Chase around 22f. Its a Novice handicap and  messy statistically as it was formerly run at Uttoxeter and it hasn’t always been open to Novices so its very unsafe. It does have a long history though and what they show is this. They imply that a horse with a high weight may struggle as horses with 11st 3lbs or more had a poor 1-36 record in the last 14 renewals. That is a worry for LAMANVER HOMERUN

Horses aged under 7 in this race had a 0-29 record and Thats a statistic that could fall and it may well be the one trend that will determine If I get this race right.

We have AIMIGAYLE – KATESS  -  RATE OF KNOTS aged
six in this race. I was tempted by AIMIGAYLE but I decided to oppose these three horses aged 6. What swings it for me is that none of them are foaled before March 21st in the year they were officially born which technically means they are all not yet 6 year olds until a month or so so whilst I may have risked a horse aged 6 that was almost 7 these three are really just 5 year olds about to become 6 despite them being offically six year olds. RATE OF KNOTS is the least experienced and almost all past winners had more experience than she does.

I’d suggest RUBY DANTE and CEOPERK are too old as no past
winners were aged 9 or more. I’d be more interested in SHATABDI had she had a more recent run and ran better in that race.

Overall perhaps the best profile belonged to JAUNTY FLIGHT
and she won the mares hurdle final last year at this meeting. She has a superb profile and on soft ground she would be a confident bet. However this is not soft. Its good bordering on fast. They say JAUNTY FLIGHT wants soft ground and his form suggests that. He is from a sire (Busy Flight) that has 23 national hunt winners. All 23 came on ground that was soft. Those that ran on good or faster ground were 0-90 so you have to worry that JAUNTY FLIGHT may find the ground too fast. I would still save on him as his profile is brilliant. PYLEIGH LADY has a serious chance as well and I like her profile and 25/1 is far too
big a price. Because of the ground PYLEIGH LADY is my bet

SELECTION – PYLEIGH LADY E/W  14/1 at many places including Betfred , Ladbrokes, Bet365

Advice provided by The Mathematician

To Visit His site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

Cheltenham Statistics

Advised Bets - Opera Mundi (2.00 Cheltenham) – win  ( 10/3 at Betfred )
Maljimar 14/1 Tote / Barbers Shop 7/1 Tote (2.35 Cheltenham) – 2 x half stakes win bets

Firstly some 15 year statistics for the 2.00 at
Cheltenham.

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.

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This Message was provided by Dave Renham of Racing Trends