Sandown Free Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site.

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I do have a firm bet for full members today which runs in the 5.20 at Beverly

Member access in immediate if you join up at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

If the above is my gold bet for today on the free blog here I am providing my next best.

Sandown   2.00

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-07/sandown-park/14-05/betting/

* This is a Group 3 over 5f for all aged horses
* Horss that came from handicaps underperformed
* Very few won and those that did were certain types
* ELUSIVITY isnt safe aged 4 from a handicap
* I also think he has the worst of the draw
* HUMIDOR comes from a handicap
* Not keen on him as an older horse absent 135 days
* MEDICEAN MAN comes from a 6f handicap
* No winners did that aged 6 or more
* No winners did that when exposed either
* TRIPLE ASPECT fails the same angles
* CALEDONIA LADY is a 3yo filly
* The 3 winning fillies aged 3 of similar races had 4 4 7 runs
* CALEDONIA LADY has 17 and may be too exposed
* DUCHESS DORA is an exposed mare from 5f
* The only similar winners had far more runs that season
* NIGHT CARNATION won this last year asa 3yo filly
* Now as a 4yo filly we have two winners like her
* Both however dropped from 6f races
* NIGHT CARNATION doesnt and isnt an exact match
* DINKUM DIAMOND looks underraced this year
* He looks short of class for a race like this
* CONFESSIONAL lost by 34 lengths just 7 days ago
* I cant find a winner overcoming such a defeat so recently
* ELNAWIN comes from 6f with 2 runs that season
* Both winners doing that were younger than him
* They both had under 13 runs as well
* ELNAWIN has 20 runs and may need another this season
* Or another race but Richard Hughes is bullish about him
* FREE ZONE is a 3yo with 13 runs
* He has never raced in Group Class before
* I looked at all 3 year olds without any Group form
* There were 3 winners aged 3 like that
* Those that had under 7 runs were 3-16
* Those that had 7 + runs were 0-20
* They were all lightly raced with 4-5-6 runs
* FREE ZONE has 13 and doesnt fit that well
* I’m saying after 13 runs he should have Group class form

S h o r t l i s t

* JUDGE 4N JURY is an 8yo
* None have won this race as old as he is
* I found 2 similar races won by 8yo’s elsewhere
* Because of that I cant rule him out
* I’d rather have seen an 8yo win this race though
* His recent run is a strong help
* So to is excellent track form as well

* SPIRIT QUARTZ is hard to read
* 9 of his 15 career starts were in Italy
* I have no problem with his general profile though
* He has shown the required Class
* SPIRIT QUARTZ is a big runner

Selection

JUDGE 4N JURY 7/1 Win Bet  BoyleSports – blue square – stan james
SPIRIT QUARTZ 5/1 Saver Bet   William Hill – stan james – BetfredBet365

( saver bet just a bet staked to win back stake on main bet if saver wins )

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Betting Advice For Ascot

Guy’s good run came unstuck last weekend.

He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.

Read below his suggested betting advice for today.

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A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

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Mathematician Betting Tip

A snippet from Guy’s much longer message for today is below.

You can visit his site direct by clicking this link ==> Racing Tips

LINGFIELD 3.40

View Our 2011 Fixtures At lingfieldpark.co.uk
Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 6f

100/30 Perfect Act, 4/1 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Five Star Junior
6/1 Breathless Kiss, 6/1 Sioux Rising, 8/1 Vintage
10/1 Green Manalishi, 12/1 The Scorching Wind.

This is another 6f handicap but a classier 0-92 race and
there are 188 similar races. THE SCORCHING WIND is
underraced at the moment and comes out badly coming
down from a Mile. GREEN MANALISHI looks to have
problems aged 10 coming up in distance and doing that
without a recent race. Mares like SIOUX RISING from
7f races and 9 or more runs were 0-48 and that’s why I
feel she is opposable. ANNE OF KIEV is a mare coming
from a 6f handicap without a recent run with a fortnight.
Thats not a safe profile. I found 7 winners doing it but
all 7 of these had form in at least a Class 3 race before
and she doesn’t. Most of the mares that won were also
younger and her lack of backclass means I can’t match
her to any winners. Throw in a rise in the weights for
being beaten and she’s now 7lbs higher than her highest
winning mark and in a Class she has never tasted before
and I have my concerns with ANNE OF KIEV. I think
VINTAGE is shortlistable but he has been off longer at
31 days than most others and I felt there were stronger
runners especially as he has never won in this class and
not from his handicap mark.

BREATHLESS KISS – Shaky profile but just ok
PERFECT ACT – Solid profile but a tough handicap mark
FIVE STAR JUNIOR – Good profile and likes small fields

SELECTION

FIVE STAR JUNIOR Each Way 4/1 Ladbrokes

Stratford Horse Racing Tip

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> free horse racing tips

Lingfield Horse Racing Tip

Tip for Lingfield from Guy Ward

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

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Lingfield 2.10 – ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 CoralBetfredBet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE – I have found 2 similar winners

JEER – I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER – Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

Racing Tip for Catterick

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Guy Ward ( The Mathematician )

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tip For Lingfield

LINGFIELD 6.20

HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 6f

11/2 Bateleur, 8/1 Another Try, 8/1 Plumage, 10/1 Dualagi,
10/1 Mr Skipiton, 10/1 Sherjawy, 14/1 Charlie Delta, 14/1
Rhapsilian, 16/1 Hollow Jo, Keep Dancing, 20/1 Kingsgate
Castle,25/1 C’Mon You Irons, 25/1 Calypso Girl, 33/1 Ejeed, 33/1 Scruffy Skip.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There has been 120 similar races in June

High Drawn horses have a massive advantage over this Course
and Distance. The last few handicaps here over this trip with 9 or more runners have seen the winning stalls drawn as follows. 10-10 , 7-9 , 9-9 , 9-9 , 13-13 , 12-14. I wouldnt entertain a low drawn horse. I would oppose KEEP DANCING – SHERJAWY C´MON YOU IRONS are all drawn in the bottom 4 stalls and KINGSGATE CASTLE is also badly drawn. There are several of these that dont look fit or ready to win. I’d argue this includes SCRUFFY SKIP and EJEED. HOLLOW JO is out with a long absence as an older horse. MR SKIPITON is out having a nasty absence and also a step up in trip. Whilst he has a good draw CHARLIE DELTA doesnt look ready to win. He’s exposed and has a big weight and has hasnt ran wellenough this year to think he can win without more runs. I am ruling out CALYPSO GIRL a filly from a 3yo handicap. You can give both DUALAGI and
RHAPSILIAN chances but no more than that and in an 18 runner race neither are well drawn in stalls 6 and 8 and I dont want a Mare from a bad draw. I feel there are 3 runners in this race.

PLUMAGE – BATELEUR – ANOTHER TRY

We backed PLUMAGE last night and she dissapointed but it
was a better race last night with far more improvers and she is very fit. It will be very annoying if she wins. I would also want to shortlist ANOTHER TRY. He has just won at Southwell and is a lightly raced horse. He won a poor race on sand and you wouldnt fancy the horses he beat in this race and he was 18/1 and has no form on Grass at all. He is lightly raced and well drawn though. Statistically he is only average and not many winners come from the sand in these races and he is a hard horse to judge. It depends on what he thinks of the grass. BATELEUR has the outstanding profile. Couldnt fault it at all and unless there is a deluge of rain tonight I think he’s the one.

SELECTION – BATELEUR

Best Price 11/4 Coral

Guy Ward
To Visit Guy’s Site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tips