2 year old maidens

Sometimes in life you come across arrogant sods who
deludedly believe they know everything about a subject.

Best thing to do is to pity a little such sorts as their attitude
can hinder them from learning and improving.

I will hold my hands up and say I most definitely
DO NOT know everything about betting.
The reality is I am learning all the time.

Just this week for example I learnt quite a bit about
2 year old maiden races..or more specifically those
that are run late in the season from September to November.

My teacher was Dave Renham ( ex racing post spotlight writer )
who produced a highly detailed research article
on this area of racing for full members over at the PunterProfits site.

Copied below is a small snippet from this research article
where Dave examines these late season 2 year old maidens
investigating how race favourites in such races fare dependant on trainer.

 

========================================

Who are the trainers to follow when their 2yo maidens start favourite at this time of the year?

Here is a table showing all trainers that have secured 8 or more wins.

 

Trainer
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Sir Mark Prescott
8
12
66.7
+£6.64
+55.3
Roger Charlton
22
39
56.4
+£14.36
+36.8
Henry Candy
8
16
50.0
+£8.96
+56.0
Bryan Smart
11
23
47.8
+£7.38
+32.1
Michael Bell
16
34
47.1
+£3.62
+10.7
John Gosden
44
94
46.8
+£13.10
+13.9
Mark Johnston
50
107
46.7
+£17.95
+16.8
Marcus Tregoning
10
22
45.5
+£2.67
+12.1
Sir Michael Stoute
50
118
42.4
-£0.57
-0.5
Saeed Bin Suroor
44
104
42.3
+£2.79
+2.7
Brian Meehan
23
55
41.8
+£1.80
+3.3
Paul Cole
10
25
40.0
-£1.75
-7.0
Tim Easterby
8
20
40.0
-£0.46
-2.3
Peter Chapple-Hyam
15
38
39.5
-£6.92
-18.2
Henry Cecil
13
33
39.4
-£3.10
-9.4
Mahmood Al Zarooni
9
24
37.5
+£3.64
+15.2
Richard Fahey
10
27
37.0
-£1.12
-4.1
William Haggas
12
33
36.4
-£5.28
-16.0
Amanda Perrett
9
25
36.0
-£4.40
-17.6
Mick Channon
19
54
35.2
-£2.70
-5.0
Jeremy Noseda
10
29
34.5
-£5.42
-18.7
Richard Hannon
34
100
34.0
-£1.94
-1.9
John Dunlop
20
75
26.7
-£28.54
-38.1
It is not surprising to see so many of the top trainers in this list. Many of their better two year olds will be running at this time of the season. Prescott, Charlton, Candy and Smart do have impressive records. On the other hand John Dunlop’s record is remarkably poor in comparison.
========================================
Picture a betting shop with 100 racing punters within in.
How many would have any clue what so ever about such cold hard facts?Most likely zero or possibly just one.
That one armed with more info than anyone else in the room… could be you.The PunterProfits full member area contains a wealth of such research on different topics.
There are also many opportunities to pick up simple to use daily tips if you
prefer to follow what others say as opposed to assess and calculate for yourself.

If at all interested in testing that site out, contact PunterProfits and
tell them you heard about them here on sports betting blog and ask
about a free trial for sports betting blog viewers.

To visit PunterProfits click here ==> Horse Racing Research


Horse Racing Statistics

Message From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

 

Thursday 16th April

 

Horses that are positives in more than one area will be noted at the end of the message.

 

Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 5 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

 

Sills Vincero (5.15 Wolverhampton)

Milne Bay (6.15 Wolverhampton)

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

 

Draw section

 

Ripon 1 mile (3.45 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 onwards):

 

bottom third of the draw 12.5%

middle third of the draw 18.8%

top third of the draw 68.8%

 

It seems from the stats that horses from the top third have a very significant edge. However, it should be noted that there have only been 16 handicap races of 10 or more runners in the past four years which is a small sample. Having said that, traditionally high draws over this distance do have a decent edge.

 

Best drawn runners – Trumptoo (drawn 11), Johnmanderville (drawn 10), Firebet (drawn 9), On Offer (drawn 8)

 

 

Ripon 5f (5.30 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 15 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 15 and 16.

 

Well drawn runners – Circuit Dancer (drawn 1), Rio Sands (drawn 2), Cheshire Rose (drawn 15), Miss Daawe (drawn 16).

 

 

Market information

 

2.00 Ripon; 2.25 Newmarket; 4.20 Ripon; 4.45 Newmarket – POOR VALUE FAVOURITE – Maiden races on turf in March / April when favourite is debutant; sr 26%; roi -24.5%. Overall figures for such runners is 32% and -9%

 

Trainer section

 

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

 

Cheviot (2.35 Ripon)M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 6 months; SR 26.1%; ROI +37%

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; ROI +75%

 

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 4 weeks SR 27.2%; ROI +56%

 

Perpetually (5.20 Newmarket) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% ROI +22.7%

 

Justcallmehandsome (7.45 Wolverhampton) – D Ffrench Davis on all weather – 7lb claiming jockey on board – SR 22.7%; ROI +394%

 

Positive trainer course stats:

 

John Gosden has an excellent overall record at Newmarket since 2000. In all Newmarket races he has an overall strike rate of 19.4% for profits of +33.6% – this comes from over 580 runners. This record means all his runners deserve a second glance – his runners today are listed below:

 

Race time

Horse

1.50 Newmarket

Militarist

1.50 Newmarket

Illusive Spirit

1.50 Newmarket

Reportage

3.00 Newmarket

Prohibit

3.35 Newmarket

Close Alliance

4.10 Newmarket

Virtual

4.10 Newmarket

Tazeez

4.45 Newmarket

Christina Rossetti

4.45 Newmarket

Chicora

5.20 Newmarket

Nawaadi

5.20 Newmarket

Muraweg

 

HOT TRAINERSR Fahey, P Chappell Hyam, J Gosden, J Boyle, B Hills,

P Evans, J Best

 

Horses with decent course records

 

Common Diva (7.15 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins, 1 placed from 8.

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins from 4

 

 

Horses noted in two or more sections

 

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

 

Please note that when evaluating trainer stats, we need two completely different types of positive stat to be included in this section. Hence if we include the Newmarket stats for John Gosden we also have the following horses noted in two sections:

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket)

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket)

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket)

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket)  

 

——

 

Big race trends (last 10 years)

 

3.00 Newmarket – Abernant Stakes

 

Positives

 

9 of the last 10 winners finished 5th or better LTO.

9 of the last 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the betting LTO.

4yos have won 5 of the 10 races (from 35% of the total runners)

Trainer Richard Hannon has saddled 3 winners and 2 placed from 12 runners

3 of the last 10 winners have won from the front (2 were clear leaders, the other disputed the lead).

7 of the last 10 winners raced at Newmarket or Doncaster LTO.

 

Negatives

 

Priced 16/1 or bigger – 0 from 54 (however, there were three winners at 14/1).

 

3.35 Newmarket – Craven Stakes

 

Positives

 

Richard Hannon (3 wins), Barry Hills (2 wins) and Sir Michael Stoute (2 wins) should be respected.

9 of the last 10 winners ran over 7f LTO.

6 of the last 10 winners ran at Newmarket LTO.

 

Negatives

 

American bred horses have provided just 1 win from 23 runners (compare with British breds – 5 wins from 30; Irish breds 4 wins from 18).

Horses priced 2/1 or shorter have provided just 1 winner from 8.

Racing Trends
Thursday, 16-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk