Know Your All Weather Race Types

Know Your All Weather Race Types by David Renham

This is the second article in a series of three all weather articles – the first being on southwell Sires In this piece I am going to look at specific race types in attempt to help you, the reader, gain that important edge over “the crowd”. Many punters are put off the all weather due to the general standard of racing – low grade handicaps, claimers and sellers are regular events on the all weather circuit, but there are plenty of positive and negative angles that once appreciated can improve your chances of making a profit. The focus of this article is these lower grade contests.

The data for this article is taken from last six years; ROI stands for return on investment; SR stands for strike rate and LTO stands for last time out. Unless otherwise stated, all profit and losses are quoted to industry starting price.


Claiming races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just under 74% of the winners. Favourites have an especially good record in all weather claimers scoring 35.6% of the time. Indeed backing all favourites “blind” would have yielded very small losses of 4%. Indeed backing all favourites since the inception of Betfair SP would have seen you break even and that is taking commission into account. Longer priced horses have a poor record and runners priced 16/1 or bigger show significant losses. Their record reads 73 wins from 3570 qualifiers (SR 2%) showing losses of £1473.00 to (ROI -41.3%). At the completely rank outsider stage – horses priced 80/1 or bigger have produced 425 consecutive losers with just 8 of them managing a place.

Last time out – horses that won LTO go on to win again just over 25% of the time in claimers, and backing all such runners would have produced losses of around 11%. Horses that won on the all weather LTO are much better betting propositions that horses that won on the turf LTO – strike rates of 26% against 15% confirm this. Indeed, regardless of LTO position, it is an advantage to have raced on the all weather LTO rather than on the turf LTO.

Age – interestingly older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 8.7%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 14.4%.

Sex of horse – In claimers colts, geldings and horses are 1.62 times more likely to win than fillies and mares.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses that are racing for a new stable in all weather claiming races score around 9% of the time, but backing all runners would have lost you about 46% (46p for every £1 wagered);

2. Maiden runners have a poor record in claimers scoring just 6% of the time and losing around 37%;

3. Horses that have recorded 2 or more course successes have a decent strike rate of 17% and backing all runners would have yielded very small losses of 2.2%;

4. Horses having their first ever racecourse outing are worth avoiding with only 7 wins from 229 qualifiers (SR 3.1%). Backing all debutants would have produced significant losses of £149.50 (ROI -65.3%);

5. Horses that raced in a claiming race last time have a strike rate of 15%; compare this to horses that raced in a selling race last time whose strike rate is under 8%;

6. The following trainers secured a strike rate of 20% or better during the 6-year study (from at least 60 runners) – Tom Dascombe, Dandy Nicholls, Kevin Ryan, Jim Boyle, Jack Pearce, Gary Moore.

 

Selling races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided 71.7% of the winners with favourites winning a third of all races. Backing all selling favourites would have yielded a loss of 6.8%. There are two favourite stats worth noting; firstly horses priced 8/11 or shorter have scored over 70% of the time and backing them all would have produced a profit of 10%; secondly favourites returning to the track less than 10 days since their last run have provided 89 winners from 227 (SR 39.2%) for a profit of £19.55 (ROI +8.6%). Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have an extremely poor record – just 20 wins from 1887 qualifiers (SR 1.1%) showing huge losses of £1164.00 to (ROI -61.7%). Horses priced 50/1 or bigger have produced just 3 winners from 890 runners for losses of over 81%.

Last time out – horses that won LTO are not good propositions in selling races. They win roughly 1 time in 5 but backing all runners would have yielded losses of around 19%. One area worth noting is that horses that ran LTO in 3yo or all age maidens have a dreadful strike rate – they have provided just 14 winners from 317 qualifiers (SR 4.4%).

Age – as with claiming races, older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. However, the bias is less pronounced. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 9%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 12.2%.

Sex of horse – in sellers once again colts, geldings and horses have an edge over fillies and mares. However, it is not quite as clear cut as it was in claimers with the male to female success ratio in sellers standing at 1.4.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses upped in class have won just 4.5% of the time; horses racing in the same class as LTO have won 10.3% of the time; horses dropping in class have won 11.4% of the time;

2. Trainers Peter Evans, Jim Boyle, Gary Moore and George Baker are trainers who have good records in selling races on the all weather;

3. Horses carrying high weights in sellers have a better strike rate than those carrying low weights. Horses carrying 9st or more have a strike rate of 12.6%; horses carrying under 9st have a strike rate of 8.8%;

4. For “in running” punters it should be noted that the early leader of a 5f seller goes on to win over 25% of the time.

 

Handicap races (class 6 or lower)

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just over 54% of the winners. Favourites win around 1 race in 4 (26% to be precise) for losses of under 7%. The most successful favourites in handicaps have been in 2yo nurseries – a strike rate of 30.4% and profits of 6%. 3yo only handicaps see favourites perform solidly thanks to a strike rate of 30.9% with losses amounting to less than 2%. Lingfield has been most successful track for low grade handicap favourites producing a break even situation to SP.

Last time out – LTO winners score 16.6% of the time, with losses standing at 19%. However, if the LTO winners return to the track within 7 days their strike rate increases to 24%. These quick returns score 37% of the time and reach a break even situation if they start favourite. However, beware of LTO winners that start 10/1 or bigger in the betting – they have won just 4.4% of the time with steep losses of 38%.

Horses that ran in handicaps LTO are better betting propositions that horses that ran in non handicaps LTO – strike rates of 9% against 6.5% confirm this. The returns for each category though do not totally mirror the strike rates with losses of 21% for runners that ran in handicaps LTO, compared with losses of 25% for runners who ran LTO in non handicaps.

Sex of horse – the male to female success ratio is 1.3 in low grade handicaps open to both sexes. Percentage losses for male runners stand at only 17% compared with 28% for females. It is also should be noted that female runners have really struggled at Lingfield – their strike rate at the Surrey track is just 5.6% and losses are over 40%. Male runners have a definite advantage over female runners in these handicaps.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Female runners returning to the track after a break of 57 or more days have a poor record – just 92 wins from 1967 runners (SR 4.7%) for a loss of £788.17 (ROI -40.1%);

2. Colts when starting favourites have been fairly rare (around 40 per year). However, of the 225 qualifiers over the past 6 seasons, 86 have won (SR 38.2%) for a profit of £50.05 (ROI +22.2%);

3. Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have won 2.1% of the time for losses to SP of 25%. However, since Betfair Starting Price was introduced in 2008 you could have made a profit by backing them all at BSP. Despite having only 70 winners from 3717 runners, you would have made a profit of £730.88 (ROI +19.7%).

I hope this article has shown you that the all weather offers betting opportunities in all race types – you just need to do some digging!

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Dave Renham is a leading researcher into uk horse racing.

His site at www.PunterProfits.com contains a lot more of his research work. Some is free and some is member only. It’s a good site for racing realists who believe that knowing your stats is a likely root to success.

The private boards there contain many interesting and highly past profitable threads maintained by members of punterprofits who obvioulsy have learnt a trick or two from all Dave’s horse racing research teachings.


10 Year Trends For Three Big Races On Saturday

Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10.
Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market.
Price: Horses priced 9/2  or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%).
LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.
Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.

2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle– 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites  from 10 qualifiers showing a

profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race.
Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%).
Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO.  French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter.
Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton.
Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father.
LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23.
LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10  year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Free Laying Tips

Free Laying Tips

- 31 out of 33 succesful lays so far.

- A net profit of 24.5 pts after 33 lays ( At Betfair SP )

- They are free.

Sound of interest?

These laying tips are newish to Dave Renham’s Horse Racing Blog

Whist new to his blog they originate from his analysis of years of past data.

They are actually determined from a small portfolio of independant past profitable approaches.

So there is quite a bit of research work behind them but the exact rules Dave wishes to keep secret for obvious reasons.

Worth Noting !

My early gut reaction to these lay selections is that they might best be viewed as a raw set of selections from which to select your own personal subset to actually place cash on.

The obvious area to bear in mind might be restricting yourself to laying below a certain odds band of your choice.

The odds range of selections is quite varied.

Dave on his thread uses a very simple and I guess the industry standard method of monitoring lay success.

ie a one point stake is deemed to be taken on the betting Exchange. Thus you win one point ( before commission ) on every succesful lay but face varying losses if a horse happens to win.

Considering the range of odds on these free lay selections ponder using a laibility based approach.

With this type of approach your risk remains constant no matter what odds.

What varies is how much you win on successful lays.

ie you adjust the stake posted up on Betfair to give yourself a pre determined liability. With this method you are not so afraid of long priced horses as how long a horses odds are will not impact on how much you can lose on a lay ( just how much you can win )

Value if you rememebr is not just about what odds a selection is at.  More key is the available odds to true odds ratio. A liability based aproach can often help you attack value lays at longer odds.

Anyhow..these free laying tips are worth a look.

Coming from Dave you know they are not random hunch type stuff. Much more so the result of a lot of nose to the grindstone research over many years.

Free is a good price :)

Click Here ==> Free Laying Tips

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

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In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).

Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10
th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run:
14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).

Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.

Bookmaker Cash Back Offer

Bookmaker Cash Back Offer

There is some major news this week on the bookmaker front I wanted to
make sure you were all aware of.

Coral have introduced quite an enticing cash back offer.

Each month you make a net loss with them on all sportsbook and gaming action
( excludes poker and any other peer to peer bets )
They will give you 10% of your net losses back.

See here for full details. ==> Coral

NB this is not just an offer for new account holders.
You can get this cash back if you already have a Coral account.

IMPORTANT

If you already have an account with them you need to opt in for this offer.
Do that now if you have not done so already by clicking here ==> Coral

Also if you open a new account with them, again opt into the 10% refund offer after you set up your account.

Also Note …

Bookmaker Canbet also offer a rebate on monthly losses

Pros of the Canbet offer .. they give 25% back which is obviously better than Corals 10%

Cons of Canbet

the rebate is restricted to losses only on UK and Irish horse racing ( whilst Coral is any sports and gaming too )

You have to manually claim it at the end of each month by logging in and entering a code into your account.
Once you opt into the Coral scheme rebate cash if due will automatically be placed into your account
which is obviously a much more punter friendly approach that cuts out the possibility of you forgetting to claim a refund due to you.

The canbet rebate is limited to 8% of total stakes

You also need 25 settled bets each month on Canbet totalling at least £100

So as you can see Canbet do of course offer a significantly higher percentage if your focus is horse racing.
It would be nice however to see them cut out some of the hoops and hurdles and automate the crediting of your account each month if you are due cash.

Overall I think I have to applaud Coral for this losses rebate introduction.
It will put pressure on some of the other bookmakers to start thinking about how they too can offer something more attractive to us punters.

Best wishes
Sports Betting Blog