Four Simple Horse Racing Systems

Back Fitting Of Horse Racing Systems

The term back fitting when applied to horse racing systems
can be summarised as over engineering selection criteria
putting all logic and common sense aside in order to produce
what on paper looks to be a profitable historic approach.

The big danger in doing so is that non sensible criteria are likely to
lead to future losses even if researched history shows positive results.

Who Can Fall Prey To Back Fitting?

You perhaps :)

If you research your own systems it is important to try and think logically.
Are there good reasons why your selection criteria are likely to produce good results?
Be careful not to use silly criteria just because by random fluke
the monkeys with type writers of historical results scatter happen to show some positive results.

If you buy systems from a system vendor tread carefully too.
Remember the seller is often primarily concerned with making a quick buck from you.
Often what he cares about is putting up a big sexy past profits pound sign in front of your nose.
They want your cash today and care little about whether what they have sold you with a pile of hype
has significant chance of doing well in the future.

For more reading around this general concept of back fitting see
the article below.

==> Four Simple Horse Racing Systems

National Hunt Favourites who failed to finish – how do they perform next time out?

It’s an interesting question.

There is some logic to thinking that a horse who was favourite last time out must have some significant positive attributes.

If he failed to finish in his last race would that big blot on his most recent record put too many people off him next time and thus possibly present a value betting opportunity?

I am sure we could all scratch our chins, ponder and even waffle a load of hot air on the matter.

One way to provide a serious answer to such questions however is to get stuck into the stats and come up with an accurate truth.

A smarter way however is to let someone else do all that boring research work and you can then just examine the findings.

If you think that’s a good idea take a look here ==> National Hunt Favourite Stats