Horse Racing System Tips

Several tips from a racing system devised by Dave Renham for you today.

Well actually not one system.. more so from  a group or portfolio of systems.

He calls it the NH 500 Portfolio

For more info on it see here Horse Racing System Portfolio

Below are todays selections

 

NH 500 PORTFOLIO –

1.50 Warwick Rocky Creek 13/8   William Hill
2.05 Kempton Bally Legend 7/2   Stan JamesCoralBetfred
2.05 Kempton Midnight Haze 18/1   Paddy Power
3.00 Warwick The New One  8/11   William HillCoralBet365

 

NB Odds above are a copy of what was advised by email earlier this morning.

As ever odds are subject to change.

Live racing odds you can find here http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing

Horse Racing Tip For Sandown

Another free Saturday horse racing tip from our old friend Guy Ward aka The Maethematician.

Visit Guy’s site at this link

==> Horse Racing Tipster

===============================

Sandown 5.35

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-01/sandown-park/17-35/betting/

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Lets start with the Draw and 15 similar races since 2001
* 13 of the 15 winners were drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
* Horses drawn in Stalls 1-8 have a 13-120 record
* Horses drawn in Stalls 9-16 have a 2-64 record
* Being drawn Under 9 gives you a far better chance
* No winners were drawn 14 or more
* CAPE EXPLORER – His profile is just about acceptable
* Wasnt enough for me to ignore Stall 15 though
* TALK OF THE NORTH – Unsafe profile and draw
* ICEBUSTER is out with a run this season
* SIM SALA BIM – Not right first time out
* HOT SPICE is underraced this year
* HIP HIP HOORAY looks worth opposing
* First of all she isnt well drawn
* Shes a mare winning an 8f race last time
* No Female horse did that older than 3 and she is 6
* Without a recent race she leaves me cold
* POETIC LORD has problems from 7f
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* Every winner aged 8 + had at least Class 2 form
* EAGLE NEBULA only has Class 4 form and is out
* QUIXOTE 3 and drops from 12f
* He’s a bit exposed doing that and has limited backclass
* I needed far fewer runs or more backclass to match him
* BRIGADOON is 5 and won last time
* I needed more backclass and runs this year

Acceptable Profiles

* KNOW NO FEAR scrapes through but isnt for me
* Huge doubt whether he will stay this far up the hill

* HIGHLAND DUKE – Acceptable profile but no more
* He should improve but he needs to

* MIZBAH is 3 and drops from 12f
* Almost all 3yo’s doing that had under 13 runs he has 14
* There was 1 winner reasonably close to him
* MIZBAH – Not a strong profile but enough to shortlist

* HURAKAN – Definate chance statistically
* Not keen a 7lbs claimer rides though

S e l e c t i o n

* NELSON4S BAY has a very strong profile
* NELSON4S BAY is 3 and comes up in distance from 8f
* Looked at similar types with Class 2 form and 5-8 runs
* Those with 1-5 runs this year and not beaten too far
* Similar horses had a strong 4-11 record
* Those with 9st or more were 4-8
* NELSON4S BAY stands out amongst these

7/1 each way at LadbrokesBlue Square

 

 

 

Scottish Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site is below

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

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We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )

Horse Racing Bets For Catterick

No Firm Selections today but I have jotted down a few thoughts on
the meeting at Catterick

Best Live Odds available at the link below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/today
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C A T T E R I C K

The Selling race at 2.30 looks nasty.
Statistically the problem is these races are very rare.
There has only been 5 selling races in May over 11f – 13f in the last 15 years
so we are partially blind to what it takes to win a race like this.
Throw in some really confusing profiles and much more strength in depth that
you normally see in these races and it looks hard.
I would be against the horses with absences such as EVELITH REGENT MAYADEEN and SAGUNT.
Several here look more than good enough to win a race like this.
My best guess would beTERMINATE around 7/1 as he comes here from winning
a handicap. He has a recent run. He will appreciate the drying ground and brings
form and fitness into the race. Its an open contest though and stakes would need to be low

I would have to go with DIAMOND BLADE in the maiden
at 3pm but have a saver on CAVITIE in the race. His main
market rival (Fashion Icon) is a filly that couldnt place in a seller last time.
You then have Positivity who was beaten 33 lengths just 8 days ago and surely
thats too far a defeat to overcome too soon for a filly like her who hasnt proved
she has trained on. Fifth Amendment was also hammered on his debut this year.
I dont understand why DIAMOND BLADE isnt odds on.
He looks a big price to me around 5/4 and 11/8.
He may be one of those where if he starts evens or shorter he will win but if he
drifts to a price like 7/4 that he shouldnt be then you would be quite worried.
All things being equal I feel DIAMOND BLADE looks like he only has to run his race to win.
CAVITIE could be the saver. Upgraded stables recently. Well backed at 20/1 and 25/1.
He is experienced like most of the past winners of this race were.
He drops from 6f which looks a sensible mood.
After the market move I watched him on video
and I can see why some are taking fancy prices and he could well be the biggest threat to the favourite.

I gave up on the 3.35 handicap as the angles were not there.
I wouldnt have gone with TURN ME ON taking on better
class horses.I wouldnt have gone with LADY RANGALI
as a filly first time out as no similar filly won a similar race.
I wasnt keen on SUNRISE SAFARI either exposed and up in distance.
MALCHEEL isnt for me either. I couldnt see any more half decent negatives
and didnt feel I have enough to take a strong view about the race.

VHUJON looks the best option in the 4.10 race with a 2 day
break having won on Thursday. He brings form and fitness
into the race. I wasnt convnced GRAZEON GOLD BLEND
or DIG DEEP did enough on their seasonal debuts. I dont
know whether WYATT EARP will have reached his peak
fitness either with just two runs this year for an 8 year old.
EL DECECY comes down from 10f to 6f and that looks a
horrible task. I didnt fancy MR WOLF as horses aged 8 or
more that had under 3 runs that year had a 3-155 record and
those that ran within 2 weeks were 1-80 and none lost by as
far as he did last time. With KASHIMIN absent 287 days
and JOHANNES also lacking a run I would have to go with
VHUJON. I respect BONNIE PRINCE BLUE but he has
just 1 run this year and VHUJON will be race fitter and I
see VHUJON as having the best chance. He may well be a
horse to consider in an each way double.

WINGED HARRIET looks a banker in the 6f Maiden and
whilst she is odds on I couldnt see her losing that race.

The last race at 5.15pm is a mess.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk