Horse Bet For Saturday

NEWMARKET 3.25

SPORTINGBET.COM E B F FILLIES´ STAKES
(HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+ 0-100) 7f

100/30 Pyrrha, 7/2 Lassarina, 9/2 Adoring, 5/1 Victoria Sponge, 8/1 Volochkova, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Carcinetto, 16/1 Shaws Diamond, 25/1 Vitoria.

There has not been many Fillies handicaps at this time of
year in this sort of grade so statistically we dont have great angles.
What few there have been all went to unexposed horses.
I see OCEANA BLUE and CARCINETTO as far
too exposed and vulnerable. I dont see VITORIA defying
a nasty absence either. ADORING has had just one career
run. She also has a 62 day absence and races on soft ground.
Having one run looks something to be worried about.
I’ve looked at every fillies handicap that has ever been run at
any distance in Class 3 and better.
Only one horse has won one of these races and that horse (Tartouche)
did it at a different trip and won a muddling false pace race before
going on to win Group races. ADORING is trying to do something no
other horse has done. Given that she also has an absence and hasnt
been on the ground before I’d want to oppose her second time out in
a 0-97 handicap. I didnt think VOLOCHKOVA would have the class.
She scraped home in a triple photo on a Class 5 race on the sand
that was only a 0-75 class race and she now takes a 3 grade rise
into a Class 2 contest and I suspect that will find her out.
LASSARINA has just one run this season and all similar races show
you are much better off with at least 3 runs that season.
She could well be underraced especially with a 98 day absence as well.
I respect the fact she drops from a Group race but shes inexperienced
and far from  certain to be fit. She has a large weight for a 3 year old.
The fact she won a Conditions race on her debut and then ran in two Group
Races shows she has class but its done nothing for her handicap mark
and a mark of 97 wont be easy to overcome with all her other issues like
her absence and inexperience and just the one run this year. She may
win but she isnt for me. SHAWS DIAMOND may find this
a bit too warm. PYRRHA is lightly raced and open to some
improvement. She had a legitimate excuse last time out at
Newmarket when badly drawn. She is tempting each way
around 4/1 but I have a couple of reservations. She has no
form on ground softer than good and isnt sure to want the
soft ground. I also worry she has just two runs this year
and could be at a fitness disadvantage. VICTORIA SPONGE
looks interesting. She looked progressive recently as she
easily won two handicaps but came unstuck last time. It
was no surprise as she was a 3 year old giving weight and
a penalty to older horses when having to drop in distance
which didnt suit her. VICTORIA SPONGE will appreciate
this return to 7f today. I would rather she came from a 7f
race but that doesnt worry me as others have far more to
worry about in terms of fitness and experience and ground.
I think VICTORIA SPONGE is a decent each way bet.

SELECTION – VICTORIA SPONGE Each Way 6/1 at Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

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Cheltenham Horse Racing Tip – Day 3

CHELTENHAM  4.40

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)
(5yo+,0-140) 3m1f110y

Cheltenham 4.40

PRETTY STAR  £30 Each Way 25/1
BOWLEAVES £20 Each Way 25/1

Pretty Star is 25/1 with Tote-BetfredHills -Ladbrokes
Pretty Star is 25/1 with Skybet -Blue Sq – Paddy P
Bowleaves is 25/1 with Skybet -Betfred -Boyles -Bet365
Bowleaves is 22/1 with Corals -VC – Tote

Above prices valid at time of send to full members
For current odds see http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/thursday/4-40

7/1 Poker De Sivola, 8/1 Shouldhavehadthat, 9/1 Aggie’s Lad, 12/1 Alexanderthegreat, 12/1 Newbay Prop, 14/1 High Chimes, 16/1 Character Building, 20/1 Bowleaze, 20/1 Double Dizzy, 20/1 Go For One, 20/1 Irish Raptor, 22/1 Oodachee, 25/1 Arteea, 25/1 Butler’s Cabin, 25/1 Ice Tea, 25/1 Le Duc, 25/1 Le Toscan, 25/1 Pretty Star, 25/1 Sherwoods Folly, 33/1 Alright Now M’Lad, 33/1Brooklyn Breeze, 33/1 Openide, 40/1 Without A Doubt, 50/1 Warpath.

* This is an Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* ARTEEA is out aged 10 absent 383 days
* Thats too much to do with 11st 12lbs
* Look at the 65 handicap chases at the festival
* Only 3 winners had 11st 8lbs or more in a 3-125 record
* Of those all 56 horses that came from Graded races lost
* ARTEEA fails that and is rejected
* CHARACTER BUILDING also fails that
* No handicap chase at the festival went to his type
* A Horse with 11st 8lbs unplaced last time out
* HIGH CHIMES also fails that and has 11st 12lbs
* In 65 Handicaps no horse had 11st 8lbs or more like him
* None were as inexperience or lost by as far as him last time
* ICE TEA fails the same statistics
* He has 11st 11lbs and didnt place last time out
* With his absence he looks opposable
* SHERWOODS FOLLY technically fails that as well
* He has 11st 8lbs and Pulled up last time
* No Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase went that way
* None went to a horse unplaced last time with that weight
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHERWOODS FOLLY is trying to become the first
* BUTLER´S CABIN also fails the same statistic
* There must be a chance he is being targeted at the National
* His weight and Absence also looks a problem
* He ought to need the run today and isnt for me
* I am oppisng exposed horses with 1 run this season
* None of the 65 Festival Handicaps went that way
* No horse won with 1 run that year when exposed
* None managed it with a months absence either
* WITHOUT A DOUBT fails that and is rejected
* LE DUC is out as exposed and having 1 run this year
* He comes from a Hunter Chase as well
* No Handicap at this festival went to a Hunter Chase runner
* WARPATH looks impossible to fancy
* OPENIDE looks very hard to fancy at the moment
* Horses aged 11 or more have a 0-55 record in this race
* BROOKLYN BREEZE fails that and is rejected
* He comes from a Hunter Chase and no horse did that
* No Hunter Chaser has won a Festival Handicap before
* ALEXANDERTHEGREAT is also out aged 11
* In 65 handicap chases over any trip at this festival
* Only 7 horses won aged 11 or more
* None of these defied a months break as he does
* LE TOSCAN comes from a Graduation Chase
* Horses not from handicaps were 0-42 in this race
* LE TOSCAN also has a 118 day break
* I looked at all 65 handicap chases at the festival
* No horse had 7 weeks off without coming from a handicap
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT comes from a Novice Handicap
* Horses that came from Novice races in this race were 0-42
* I looked at Novice Handicap Chasers in 65 Cheltenham races
* In the 65 races No horse won coming from a Novice Handicap
* All 19 lost and none managed a 1-2-3 placing in them
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT also has a 73 day absence
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In every handicap chase run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43) as he tries to
* Those that won last time out as he did were 0-41
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* The only 7yo winners of this race ran within a month
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT fails that as well
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT has a lot to prove for me
* ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD has 11st 7lbs and an 8 week break
* In 65 English handicaps horses absent 7 weeks struggled
* Those like him with 11st or more were 2-88
* He doesnt look to be in good enough for for this
* BOWLEAZE has a similar problem
* He has a 11st 3lbs and a 96 day break
* OODACHEE has a very hard task
* He is absent 166 days yet a 10 year old and exposed
* He also has 11st 5lbs and steps up from 2m 4f
* AGGIE´S LAD was beaten 80 lengths in a Beginners Chase
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* That would be a big problem for me
* I am sure he is underpriced as he is trained by A Martin
* Irish runners have a miserable record in this as well
* GO FOR ONE has a lot of weight with 11st 5lbs
* In this race horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 3-101
* None were aged 10 or more as he is
* Those like him running within 7 weeks were 1-79
* He may just be handicapped a bit high
* NEWBAY PROP pulled up in this race last year
* He probably has a better chance this year
* He doesnt look to be that well handicapped
* An absence and his weight wont make it easy
* The 15 renewals of this race are interesting
* Horses that came from 22f or shorter were 1-63
* Thats a big worry for some horses in this race
* BUTLER´S CABIN -ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD
* OODACHEE -WARPATH -AGGIE´S LAD fail that
* Course winners have a weak 1-75 record in 15 years
* HIGH CHIMES -BUTLER´S CABIN -OPENIDE fail that
* IRISH RAPTOR -LE DUC ALEXANDERTHEGREAT fail that
* Exosed horses (21+ runs) with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-37
* ARTEEA -BUTLER´S CABIN -BUTLER´S CABIN fail that
* WITHOUT A DOUBT -LE DUC -BROOKLYN BREEZE do
* Exposed horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out score badly
* They have a poor 1-59 record
* OODACHEE -BOWLEAZE- LE DUC fail that
* BROOKLYN BREEZE also fails that
* No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season
* All 40 that tried lost in this race
* HIGH CHIMES – ARTEEA -WITHOUT A DOUBT fail that
* LE DUC – NEWBAY PROP -BROOKLYN BREEZE also fail that
* All 38 horses that came from a Novice race lost
* The following horses all fail this
* AGGIE´S LAD – SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT -POKER DE SIVOLA

POSSIBLES

* POKER DE SIVOLA has been the big gamble
* POKER DE SIVOLA is a 6 year old
* Horses aged under 7 like him are 0-19 in this race
* He also comes from a race that wasnt a handicap
* All past 15 winners of this came from a handicap
* In 65 Festival Handicaps only 6 winners were under 7 years old
* They struggled in the 3m handicaps (1-31)
* No horse that age were unplaced last time as he was
* Its a lot to do for a horse with 11st 3lbs in weight
* Especially for a horse with just 5 chase starts
* IRISH RAPTOR was unlucky last time crashing into a rail
* He is on a winning handicap mark from a top stable
* I wouldnt rule him out in this race but the jockey worries me
* He has just 4 rides and a Hunter Chase win and never ridden here
* IRISH RAPTOR may also be a small field horse
* DOUBLE DIZZY also has a lot of weight
* I dont think he is completely out of this
* I cant find a similar enough winner though

SELECTIONS

PRETTY STAR

* PRETTY STAR is pretty interesting
* He has a very similar profile to the 1998 and 2000 winners
* He also comes from the same prep race as the 1998 winner
* He comes from the same Ludlow Handicap 14 days ago
* His chance may depend on whether he has anything in hand
* PRETTY STAR has to be shortlisted

BOWLEAZE is almost statistically perfect but one or two
minor flawes but I forgive him that. He is from a stable that excel in this race. He is best fresh and several recent winners had his profile and I give him a massive chance in this race.

Venetia Williams may well prefer Alexanderthegreat to her
other runners one of whom I like a lot in PRETTY STAR.
You can argue that on the form of their last race its easier to prefer Alexanderthegreat – and I do think he is a danger but I disagree that he should be the stable choice and feel there are good reasons to prefer PRETTY STAR.

Guy Ward

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