How To Pick The Gold Cup Winner

After timing this I know but there is still opportunity to learn from succesfull race analysis.

This was one of the better Gold Cup bits of analysis I read.

Guy seems to have  a bit of knack for the Gold Cup as he made a very good and reasoned case for Imperial Commander at 8/1 when he won last year.

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

100/30 Imperial Commander, 9/2 Long Run
5/1 Kauto Star, 11/2 Denman, 11/1 Kempes
12/1 Pandorama, 14/1 Midnight Chase
20/1 Tidal Bay, 20/1 Weird Al, 25/1 Albertas Run
25/1 China Rock, 33/1 Neptune Collonges
33/1 What A Friend, 66/1 Carruthers.

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* Like many I want to oppose the old guard
* KAUTO STAR and DENMAN are opposed
* Both are now 11 year olds
* No Gold Cup winner was that age since 1969
* I take the view both are now vulnerable to improvers
* DENMAN especially looks weak with just 1 run this season
* KAUTO STAR only has 2 runs and doesnt appeal
* I would have to oppose this ageing pair
* PANDORAMA doesnt look safe to me
* You ideally want between 6 and 14 Chase starts
* PANDORAMA has had just 5 and pulled up early in one
* He has ran just twice this year which is a bare minimum
* Having Pulled up early in one of those races I’d worry
* PANDORAMA lacks form at the track as well
* Short on experience it’s not a Gold Cup winners profile
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has been a revelation last Autumn
* He comes from a Handicap and 2 recent winners did that
* That said both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* Every winner since 1992 won or placed in a Grade 1-2 race
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has never ran in that class before
* Rated 163 without that form I’d question his class
* Coming from a Handicap before Christmass won’t help
* The form of that win has hardly worked out
* With the National in mind I think he will be found out
* CHINA ROCK looks outclassed
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal much either
* CARRUTHERS has shown this race is too much for him
* WEIRD AL only has 5 Chase starts
* That would make him the least experienced winner in ages
* I dont like him with 2 runs this year and a break

POSSIBLES

* KEMPES was impressive in Ireland last time
* He is peaking and could offer more improvment
* Unusual type as he started his career on the Flat
* The last winner to do that was back in 1979
* Thats not a good sign and makes him harder to fancy
* So to does the lack of form at Cheltenham
* One run here over Hurdles and well beaten in that
* His rating is just below the class usually required
* He will probably run well without winning
* WHAT A FRIEND doesnt look a likely winner
* His profile is too good for a 40/1 chance though
* His rating suggests he isnt good enough and he may not be
* It wouldnt be a complete shock if he won though

SHORTLIST

TIDAL BAY
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
LONG RUN

* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is the reigning Champion
* He has had just 1 run this year in a very light season
* His trainer has recently quashed that saying he will win
* He does have a brilliant record Fresh
* Winning last year and going well fresh gets him shortlisted
* He is 10 now and thats older than ideal
* I ignore that statistic as its a race full of older horses
* He is still ideally exposed with 12 Chase starts
* I’d have liked one more run this year but I like his chance
* I think he is one of 3 with outstanding claims

* TIDAL BAY deserves to take his chance
* He is high class and should be suited to the race
* Statistically he is older than ideal aged 10
* There has been a 10yo winner and plenty placed
* I wouldnt rule him out based on that statistic alone
* Not with so many others with bigger problems
* After all 3 or the 4 market leaders are that age and more
* You want 6-14 Chase runs
* He has had 16 Chase runs and thats only 2 more than ideal
* He has never Fallen over fences in his life
* He has a consistent record as well over fences
* TIDAL BAY looks outstanding value at 22/1

* LONG RUN is clearly Top Class and good enough
* The issue is whether he is good enough at the track
* He is 6 and the last 6yo winner was 1948
* It’s not that relevant as hardly any have tried
* Those that did included The Fellow beaten in a photo
* One think I would mention is that he is not technically 6
* He wont become 6 until April unofficially
* The Fellow was 4 months older than he is
* I see him as easily shortlistable and in the 1-2-3
* I dont like the fact he is not actually a full 6yo yet
* There is also the track and many say he doesnt like it
* I find that ridiculous after evidence of just 2 races
* Far too early to write him off at all
* His run in last years Sun Alliance was excusable
* He was statistically Repulsive in that race
* His chance was never as good as it was portrayed
* I have to forgive him that run and he did place
* In the Sun Alliance last year he was inexperienced
* Two days ago we opposed Time For Rupert in the RSA
* He had a better statistical profile than Long Run last year
* LONG RUN had 2 runs and Time For Rupert 3
* LONG RUN also came from 2m to 3m last year
* Time For Rupert didnt have to go up in trip
* LONG RUN was also a 5yo last year in that race
* There are just 2 winners aged 5 since 1946 in the RSA
* LONG RUN didnt have the allowances they had
* His run in 3rd last year was nothing short of magnificent
* Thats the stick many are beating him with this year
* His other defeat here was first time out this year
* That wasnt too bad a run either on his debut
* He demands the benefit of the doubt

SELECTION

LONG RUN 5/1 Win Bet

TIDAL BAY 22/1 + Win Bet

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport
The National Hunt season starts in earnest this weekend as Cheltenham hosts the Open Meeting, with the highlight coming on Saturday afternoon in the form of the Gold Cup Chase. The two early Premiership leaders will be looking to gain an advantage in one of the most competitive Premiership races in years this weekend. Liverpool are in action first when they travel to Bolton on Saturday lunch time, while Chelsea must wait until later that day to face bottom side West Bromwich Albion. On Sunday Everton host Middlesbrough as seventh meets eighth, while Hull look to continue their bright start when they host Manchester City.

Weekend Horse Racing

Cheltenham hosts the first jumps festival of the new season this weekend, with the three day Open Meeting. The highlight is the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2:35pm on Saturday, where Silverburn is the 10/3 favourite at VCbet, with Imperial Commander, a 6/1 shot with Pagebet, and Barbers Shop at 8/1 with BGBET following closely behind in the betting.

Last years winning trainer Ferdy Murphy is looking to defend the crown he won with 13/2 chance L’Antartique, and his challenger this year is Three Mirrors. However another success would be even more impressive this time round as Three Mirrors is currently a 40/1 outsider with both Pagebet and BGBET.

Existing Pagebet customers! Have FIVE outright win bets of £25 or more on any FIVE different races at Cheltenham over the 3 days of the festival, and Pagebet will give you a free £25 bet. 1

If your horse falls in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2.35pm Cheltenham on Saturday, we will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.2

Free Fall…

All races at Cheltenham (Saturday & Sunday)

If your selection FALLS, VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on the following day’s racing!3

Weekend Football

Bolton v Liverpool, Saturday, Sky Sports 1, 12:45pm

Liverpool are the first of the leaders to play this weekend, and they will want to leave the Reebok with a three point lead over Chelsea after their game against Bolton. After their stutter against Tottenham the Reds looked to be back on form last week against West Brom as they ran out 3-0 winners. Robbie Keane scored his first Premier League goals for Liverpool at Anfield as his brace sealed the game before half time. Bolton have had a mini revival of late which has seen them climb from the relegation to mid table. They beat upstarts Hull 1-0 last time out, and that came on the back of a 2-0 win over Man City at the Reebok.

Bolton are 5/1 with BGBET to continue their good form, while Liverpool are 3/5 with Pagebet to build their lead at the top of the Premiership.

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West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea, Saturday, Setanta Sports 1, 5:30pm

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns on Saturday evening for a possible top v bottom clash. Going into the weekend they were top thanks to their goal difference, which is down to new coach Phil Scolari’s attacking mentality. They have scored 16 goals in their last 5 Premiership games, and the West Brom defence will have to hold strong to withstand the formidable Chelsea attack. The Baggies will certainly have to put on a better performance than they have done so far against other sides from the “Big Four”, as Liverpool beat them 3-0 last week, while Manchester United put four past them in October.

West Brom are a massive 7/1 outsider with CentreBet to cause a huge upset, while Chelsea are 2/7 with BGBET to move back to the top of the Premiership.

If Florent Malouda scores at anytime during West Brom v Chelsea, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Everton v Middlesbrough, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

Two sides who have had promising starts to the campaign meet on Sunday when Middlesbrough travel to Goodison to face Everton. Everton will be full of confidence as they have won their last three Premiership games, although in each of these games they have only scored in the last ten minutes. This knack of scoring late goals was demonstrated in its most startling effect at West Ham last week, when they scored three times in the last ten minutes to come form a goal behind to win 3-1. Boro have also left it late in scoring in their last two games, as Tuncay’s 88th minute winner at Villa Park last week followed Mido’s 83rd minute goal at West Ham the week before that gave the Teesider’s a 1-1 draw.
Everton are 4/5 with Pagebet to stretch their unbeaten run to five games, with Boro 7/2 at CentreBet to continue their recent good run of form.

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If Everton v Middlesbrough finishes 0-0 BGBET will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.4

Hull v Manchester City, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:00pm

Despite their excellent start Hull will be looking to win for the first time in four Premiership games when they welcome Manchester City to the KC Stadium on Sunday. Last week’s 1-0 defeat to Bolton showed how far the Tiger’s have come this season, as many people were shocked that the Premiership new boys were beat by an established Premiership side. Prior to that game they had been brought back down to earth with successive defeats against Man Utd. and Chelsea, although they did push the Champions close at Old Trafford. Manchester City will also be looking for their first league win in four, although their pre-season expectations would have been considerably higher than Hulls. However, the addition of Robinho and Wright-Phillips has not transformed the side in the way many believed, and they will want to leave Humberside on Sunday night with some points as they prepare for a spending spree in January.
Hull are 19/10 with VCbet to continue their excellent start to the season, while BGBET make Manchester City 13/10 at the KC Stadium.

If Shaun Wright Phillips scores at anytime during Hull v Manchester City, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGBET will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match we’ll refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.5

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