The Cambridgeshire – Free Stats Research

The Cambridgeshire runs at Newmarket on Saturday.

My old mate Guy described it as a race that was

“difficult but not impossible”

He ducked the race in 2015 but in 2014 he

used his stats research to pick out two contendors.

He got the 20/1 early price winner and his other was 3rd at 12/ early price.

So “difficult but not impossible” seems apt enough when coming from him.

Anyhow he has posted up for free some of his early statastics research  work for this years race.

See here Cambridgeshire Statistics

Wwll worth a nosey if you have an interest in the race.

 

 

 

 

Group 1 Horse Racing Research

Group 1 races are the crème de la crème with the best horses taking on each other at the very highest level. Over the past 10 full seasons (2000-2009) there have been 299 Group 1 contests in the UK and if you had used a pin to select a horse in each race, you would have lost around 32% of your money !

Using a pin no matter how magic is not the way forward.

It not ..then what is?

A good starting point in finding an answer would be to painstakingly analyse  every Group 1 race over the past ten years.

Sounds like a lot of hard work.

Why not save time and just read what someone else who has already carried out that research has to say.

There is an interesting free article on it at the link below.

Group 1 Racing


Goodwood Trainer Stats

Goodwood Trainer Stats

The following is a small snippet from todays very comprehensive client message from Racing Trends.

Racign Trends is a service aimed at the more serious racign punter providing lots and lots of extra information on each days racing it is very hard to find elsewhere.

The more you know compared to other betting Exchange users the more likely you are to come out ahead against them.

Not rocket science.

If you don’t like spending six hours a day doing research farm that donkey work out to racing trends.

————————————————–

Goodwood trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday 9th Sept 2010
(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike
Rate (%)
Profit
ROI
(%)
Engagements
B
Palling
2
8
25.0
+£19.00
+237.5
5.50
C
F Wall
7
32
21.9
+£21.00
+65.6
3.30
Sir
Michael Stoute
28
131
21.4
+£3.61
+2.8
2.25,
4.05
R
Charlton
11
56
19.6
+£19.41
+34.7
2.25,
3.30
M
Al Zarooni
2
11
18.2
-£7.50
-68.2
4.05
Saeed
Bin Suroor
22
124
17.7
-£46.56
-37.5
3.00,
5.15
B
R Johnson
1
6
16.7
+£2.50
+41.7
2.25,
4.40
B
J Meehan
19
124
15.3
-£29.27
-23.6
2.25,
3.30
M
Johnston
28
188
14.9
+£69.28
+36.8
2.25,
5.15
H
R A Cecil
7
49
14.3
-£6.98
-14.2
4.05
M
Botti
2
14
14.3
-£1.63
-11.6
3.30
J
H M Gosden
17
125
13.6
-£27.51
-22.0
2.25,
5.15
R
Hannon
63
464
13.6
-£79.03
-17.0
2.25,
3.00, 3.30, 3.30, 4.05, 4.40
S
C Williams
2
16
12.5
-£2.67
-16.7
5.50
P
R Chamings
6
50
12.0
-£10.50
-21.0
2.25
W
J Musson
2
17
11.8
+£3.50
+20.6
2.25
Mrs
A J Perrett
20
177
11.3
-£4.38
-2.5
2.25,
3.00
J
L Dunlop
21
188
11.2
-£28.17
-15.0
4.05,
4.40, 5.15
C
G Cox
14
126
11.1
+£8.42
+6.7
3.00,
4.05
Stef
Liddiard
2
18
11.1
-£4.00
-22.2
3.00
M
P Tregoning
12
128
9.4
-£44.48
-34.7
4.05
S
Kirk
7
76
9.2
-£40.38
-53.1
4.05
M
L W Bell
4
44
9.1
-£22.63
-51.4
3.00,
3.00, 4.40
B
R Millman
6
68
8.8
-£20.50
-30.1
2.25,
5.15, 5.50
M
H Tompkins
5
63
7.9
-£8.58
-13.6
4.05
W
R Muir
7
91
7.7
-£17.50
-19.2
4.05
M
R Channon
24
318
7.6
-£86.95
-27.3
4.40,
5.50
G
L Moore
13
189
6.9
-£94.25
-49.9
5.15
D
M Simcock
4
59
6.8
-£30.25
-51.3
2.25,
3.30, 4.40, 5.15
P
F I Cole
6
98
6.1
-£65.00
-66.3
4.40,
5.15
Miss
J Feilden
1
17
5.9
-£15.43
-90.8
2.25
J
A Osborne
2
42
4.8
-£22.00
-52.4
2.25
D
J S Ffrench Davis
1
21
4.8
-£15.50
-73.8
4.05,
5.50
I
A Wood
1
21
4.8
-£8.00
-38.1
3.30
J
W Hills
4
97
4.1
-£65.50
-67.5
5.50
J
J Bridger
2
108
1.9
-£92.50
-85.6
5.50

Saturday National Hunt Favourite Statistics

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ayr favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

43

130

33.1

+£3.90

+3.0

2.40, 3.15, 4.25

novice / beginner chases

30

51

58.8

+£5.63

+11.0

2.10

handicap hurdles

37

119

31.1

-£8.71

-7.3

3.50, 4.55

novice hurdles

38

74

51.4

-£6.82

-9.2

1.40

Newbury favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

non handicap chases

29

61

47.5

-£5.80

-9.5

2.30, 3.40

novice / beginner chases

20

37

54.1

-£1.14

-3.1

1.30

handicap hurdles

26

88

29.6

+£5.35

+6.1

2.00

non handicap hurdles

53

118

44.9

+£6.42

+5.4

3.05

novice hurdles

40

90

44.4

+£3.77

+4.2

4.15

bumpers

10

43

23.3

-£9.52

-22.2

4.45

Warwick favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

handicap chases

32

84

38.1

+£13.19

+15.7

3.20

novice / beginner chases

30

55

54.6

+£3.99

+7.3

1.45, 2.15

handicap hurdles

30

84

35.7

+£19.42

+23.1

2.50, 4.30

novice hurdles

30

79

38.0

-£19.42

-24.6

3.55

The above is just a small snippet of the horse racing statistics from the Saturday email of the RacingTrends service.

For those of you who are interested in self improvement .. a Free Horse Racing Course is also availalbe from RacingTrends.

Wokingham Stakes

The big horse race of the day is the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot

Below are some helpful facts and figures from Dave Renham at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

4.20 Ascot Wokingham Stakes (6f – handicap) 3yo+

N.B there was a dead heat in 2003 so we have 21 winners to consider.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 14 of the last 21 winners were priced between 10/1 and 20/1.
Position LTO: 16 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 LTO.
Distance LTO: Horses dropping down a furlong from running over 7f LTO have a good record with 8 wins from 85 qualifiers for a profit of 76 pts (ROI +89.4%).
Career wins:18 of the last 21 winners had won at least three times in their careers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Second favourites (inc. joints): 0 from 30.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 5 winners from 300 runners for a loss of 190 pts (ROI -63.3%).
Distance LTO: Horses stepping up from 5f LTO have a very poor record with just 1 win from 130 runners.
Last 6 runs: Horses that have failed to finish 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last six runs have provided 0 winners from 112.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 2 wins from 20 for a loss of 5 pts (ROI -25%).
Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 34 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 9 from 205 runners (SR 4.4%); 5yos have won 7 from 140 runners (SR 5%); 6yos have won 4 from 99 runners (SR 4%); 7yos+ have won 1 from 99 (SR 1%).
Trends Summary: One of the top handicap sprints of the year and with an average of around 27 runners it is not easy! Horses priced between 10/1 and 20/1 seem to offer the best value, assuming they have finished in the first four LTO. It is best to ignore horses that raced over 5f LTO, have not finished in the first two on at least one of their last six starts, and horses aged 7 or older. Using those five stats mentioned above would have found the winner in 60% of the races from only 18% of all runners. One final positive trend worth noting is the good record of horses dropping down from 7f LTO.

Dave Renham

To visit Dave’s Site click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics