Horse Racing Bets For Catterick

No Firm Selections today but I have jotted down a few thoughts on
the meeting at Catterick

Best Live Odds available at the link below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/today
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C A T T E R I C K

The Selling race at 2.30 looks nasty.
Statistically the problem is these races are very rare.
There has only been 5 selling races in May over 11f – 13f in the last 15 years
so we are partially blind to what it takes to win a race like this.
Throw in some really confusing profiles and much more strength in depth that
you normally see in these races and it looks hard.
I would be against the horses with absences such as EVELITH REGENT MAYADEEN and SAGUNT.
Several here look more than good enough to win a race like this.
My best guess would beTERMINATE around 7/1 as he comes here from winning
a handicap. He has a recent run. He will appreciate the drying ground and brings
form and fitness into the race. Its an open contest though and stakes would need to be low

I would have to go with DIAMOND BLADE in the maiden
at 3pm but have a saver on CAVITIE in the race. His main
market rival (Fashion Icon) is a filly that couldnt place in a seller last time.
You then have Positivity who was beaten 33 lengths just 8 days ago and surely
thats too far a defeat to overcome too soon for a filly like her who hasnt proved
she has trained on. Fifth Amendment was also hammered on his debut this year.
I dont understand why DIAMOND BLADE isnt odds on.
He looks a big price to me around 5/4 and 11/8.
He may be one of those where if he starts evens or shorter he will win but if he
drifts to a price like 7/4 that he shouldnt be then you would be quite worried.
All things being equal I feel DIAMOND BLADE looks like he only has to run his race to win.
CAVITIE could be the saver. Upgraded stables recently. Well backed at 20/1 and 25/1.
He is experienced like most of the past winners of this race were.
He drops from 6f which looks a sensible mood.
After the market move I watched him on video
and I can see why some are taking fancy prices and he could well be the biggest threat to the favourite.

I gave up on the 3.35 handicap as the angles were not there.
I wouldnt have gone with TURN ME ON taking on better
class horses.I wouldnt have gone with LADY RANGALI
as a filly first time out as no similar filly won a similar race.
I wasnt keen on SUNRISE SAFARI either exposed and up in distance.
MALCHEEL isnt for me either. I couldnt see any more half decent negatives
and didnt feel I have enough to take a strong view about the race.

VHUJON looks the best option in the 4.10 race with a 2 day
break having won on Thursday. He brings form and fitness
into the race. I wasnt convnced GRAZEON GOLD BLEND
or DIG DEEP did enough on their seasonal debuts. I dont
know whether WYATT EARP will have reached his peak
fitness either with just two runs this year for an 8 year old.
EL DECECY comes down from 10f to 6f and that looks a
horrible task. I didnt fancy MR WOLF as horses aged 8 or
more that had under 3 runs that year had a 3-155 record and
those that ran within 2 weeks were 1-80 and none lost by as
far as he did last time. With KASHIMIN absent 287 days
and JOHANNES also lacking a run I would have to go with
VHUJON. I respect BONNIE PRINCE BLUE but he has
just 1 run this year and VHUJON will be race fitter and I
see VHUJON as having the best chance. He may well be a
horse to consider in an each way double.

WINGED HARRIET looks a banker in the 6f Maiden and
whilst she is odds on I couldnt see her losing that race.

The last race at 5.15pm is a mess.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Saturday Racing Bets from RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Bets From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Gustavo (1.25 Sandown) –

best price 33/1 (sporting bet / skybet) – EACH WAY

Approved Force (3.05 Sandown)

– take 22/1 best odds guaranteed atWilliam Hill – EACH WAY

Diriculous (3.30 Great Leighs)

- take 2/1 best odds guaranteed at William Hill / Stan James / Boyle Sports – WIN

Saturday Racing

First some trends – 15 years worth

2.35 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase – 2 miles (Grade 1)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
12 of the last 15 winners have come from the top three in the betting.
Price:
9 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
Position
LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 8 of the last 15 winners.
Seasonal
debutants: Horses making their seasonal debuts have a good record with
7 wins from 25 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced
a £8.50 profit (ROI +34%).
Market
position LTO: Horses that were first or second favourites last time
out have provided 13 winners of the 15 winners.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Exeter last time out have a good record
with 4 of the 17 qualifiers going onto win this race. Backing all qualifiers
would have yielded a £5.83 profit (+34.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses ranked fifth or higher in the betting have provided just 1 winner
from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £33.00 (ROI -82.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 44 qualifiers.
Position
LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse last time out (and
completed the course) have produced just 2 winners from 34 qualifiers
for a loss of £22.50 (ROI -66.2%).
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time out have
a surprisingly poor record with only 3 wins from 37 qualifiers for a
loss of £25.67 (ROI -69.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)
from 16 for a small loss of 82 pence.
Age:
5 year olds have won 3 races from 8 qualifiers (SR 37.5%); 6 year olds
have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 7 year olds have won
5 races from 23 qualifiers (SR 21.7%); 8 year olds have won 3 races
from 23 qualifiers (SR 13%); 9 year olds and older have won 2 races
from 33 qualifiers (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a fairly good record, but it looks best to concentrate on the top three
in the betting as they have provided 80% of the winners. Indeed focusing on
horses priced 15/2 or shorter has provided every single winner in the last 15
years. From there, pay special attention to horses either making their seasonal
debuts, and/or those who were first or second in the betting on their most recent
start. Moving onto negatives, if they raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time
out this then there is almost certainly value looking elsewhere, as is there
looking for horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO (having completed
course). This process should pinpoint a clear trends pick. In terms of age,
5 years have a good record from a small number of runners, while 9 year olds
or older look poor value.

Conclusion – Master Minded
has a good trends profile; slightly better than second favourite TidalBay, but
TidalBay looks the value price of the pair to me.

3.05 Sandown – Listed handicap hurdle 2 miles ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have won 7 races from 49 qualifiers
for a profit of £11.50 (ROI +23.5%).
Position
LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out. Backing all qualifiers
would have produced a profit of £13.33 (ROI +20.2%).
Weight
carried: The bottom five in the weights (inc. joints) have a good record
with 10 wins from 82 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded
a profit of £23.50 (ROI +28.7%).
Racing
Post Speed ratings: Topspeed in the Racing Post has had 5 top rated
/ joint top rated winners for a profit of £29.25 (ROI +162.5%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
There have been 3 winning favourites from 15 qualifiers for a loss of
£8.17 (ROI -57.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 88 qualifiers
for a loss of £62.00 (ROI -70.5%).
Weight
carried: The top five in the weights have a poor record with only 2
wins from 73 qualifiers and a loss of £69.67 (ROI -88.2%).
Days
since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 7 weeks or more
have produced 0 winners from 35 qualifiers.
Beaten
favourites: 25 beaten favourites have run in this race and all have
lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 year olds have won 5 races from 49 qualifiers (SR 10.2%); 5 year olds
have won 5 races from 74 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 6 year olds have won
4 races from 51 qualifiers (SR 7.8%); 7 year olds plus have won 1 race
from 45 qualifiers (SR 2.2%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a poor record which is no surprise considering the race usually attracts
a big field and hence is a competitive affair. Having said that outsiders have
a poor record also, so it seems best to focus on horses priced under 20/1. The
bottom five in the weights have won 67% of the races from just 37% of the runners,
so these horses merit close scrutiny, as do horses won last time out. Horses
to avoid seem to be horses at the top of the weights, beaten favourites last
time out, 7 year olds and older, and horses that have been off the track for
7 or more weeks.

Conclusion – from a trends
perspective Spear Thistle looks the one to be on.

At an each way price Approved
Force looks interesting. Had good form as 3yo and he looks overpriced. Hills
offer best odds guaranteed at 22/1 and that rates good each way value.

2.00 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – 2 miles (Grade
2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 10 winning favourites (including joints)
from 17 qualifiers for a profit of £4.81 (ROI +28.3%).
Market:
14 of the last 15 winners have come from the top two in the betting.
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
LTO
winners: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Recent
form: 23 horses have come into the race having finished first or second
on all of their last three starts and 8 have won.
Jumping:
All 15 winners came into the race having never fallen / unseated previously
in their careers.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record
with 6 of the 20 qualifiers going onto win this race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses third or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from
50 qualifiers for a loss of £43.00 (ROI – 86%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 27 qualifiers.
Course
winners: Course winners have only won once from 15 runners for a loss
of £12.62 (ROI -84.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 and 5 year olds have won 5 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 6
year olds have won 7 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 21.2%); 7 year olds
plus have won 3 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 13.6%).

Trends analysis: the top
two in the market have dominated this event winning a all bar one of the races,
with favourites doing especially well winning 67% of them. From here you need
to focus on good jumpers as none of the winners had previous fallen in their
careers. Last time out winners have a good record, while horses that ran at
Cheltenham last time out have a good record also.

Conclusion – of the front
two in the market, second favourite Araldur has the better profile and at 7/2
looks better value.

——————–

1.25 Sandown – this is an
open handicap hurdle but one horse stands out for me at the early prices. Gustavo
hails from a stable that seems to be running into form and he has plenty of
other positives as well. He has a good record fresh, has a good record on right
handed tracks (4 wins, 2 placed from 8 ) and acts on the ground. The jockey
looks a potential negative but he has an 18% strike rate for Venetia Williams
so perhaps that is not a worry. At 33/1 best price at sporting bet and sky bet
/ mid 40s on Betfair he looks a worthwhile punt. If you don’t have an account
with sporting bet / sky bet then take the best odds guaranteed at either bet
365 or William Hill (both price up at 25/1).

3.30 Great Leighs – Diriculous
looks a solid favourite and 2/1 looks a fair bet to me.

This message was provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk